...Asset Quality Review and Stress Test: Recent Experiences and Potential Implications for the MENA Region Dubai, 7th May 2014 © Oliver Wyman LON-FSP22401-197 Agenda 1. AQR and stress test: setting a new standard for banking supervision 2. Applying the new methodologies to the prevailing context in MENA region: potential scenarios…. 3. … And implications for MENA Banks 4. Concluding remarks © Oliver Wyman LON-FSP22401-197 1 1 AQR and stress test: setting a new standard for banking supervision Since the start of the Eurozone crisis a number of AQRs and stress tests have been carried out in Europe with relevant impact on the Banks Greece – ’11 Ireland – ‘10 Spain – ‘12 • Economy: ~2% GDP EU • Asset Quality Review • Credit Loss Projections • Loss Absorption Capacity • • • • Capital shortfall ~€24mld Economy: ~12% GDP EU Asset Quality Review Credit Loss Projections Loss Absorption Capacity • • • • Economy: ~2% GDP EU Asset Quality Review Credit Loss Projections Loss Absorption Capacity Capital shortfall ~€50mld Capital shortfall ~€60mld Cyprus – ’12 • • Portugal – ’11 • • • • • Economy: ~2% GDP EU Asset Quality Review Credit Loss Projections Loss Absorption Capacity Capital shortfall ~€7mld • Economy: ~0.2% GDP EU Asset Quality Review Credit Loss Projections Loss Absorption Capacity Capital shortfall ~€6mld Slovenia...
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...Modelling Of Modern Microprocessors Siddhant (Author) Department of Computer Science Lovely Professional University Phagwara, India siddhant_s@outlook.com Abstract--Microprocessors are also known as a CPU or central processing unit is a complete computation engine that is fabricated on a single chip. The first microprocessor was the Intel 4004, introduced in 1971. This paper covers the evolution in microprocessors and the changes in the architecture of the microprocessor, the details of the latest microprocessors and the machines using them. The paper also discusses how the number of transistors affects the performance of processor. A microprocessor can move data from one memory location to another. A microprocessor can make decisions and jump to a new set of instructions based on those decisions. The native language of a microprocessor is Assembly Language. The above mentioned are the three basic activities of a microprocessor. An extremely simple microprocessor capable of performing the above mentioned operations loos like: Index terms—Modern, architecture, Intel, PC, Apple. I. INTRODUCTION The microprocessor is the heart of any normal computer, whether it is a desktop machine , a server or a laptop . The first microprocessor to make a real splash in the market was the Intel 8088, introduced in 1979 and incorporated into the IBM PC (which first appeared around 1982).The microprocessor is made up of transistors. CHIPA chip...
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...statistical significance. Comment upon your results. ⅰ. TESCO-Time trend regression model at price level Modelling TESCO price level using the OLS method using PC Give output The equation for Tesco is P=40092-0.162778*time (4.25) (-4.24) NOTE: Standard error are given in brackets Time Trend Regression Model Variable Coefficient Constant 40092 (4.25) Time trend -0.162778 (-4.24) R-squared 0.545534 No. of reservation 17 NOTE: t-value is shown in the brackets. Hypothesis Testing Setting up the null hypothesis H0: β2=0 and H1: β2≠0 (two-tailed, 5% significance level) t= -0.162778/0.03836=-4.24 The reject area is where t-value is less than-1.96 or greater than 1.96 in the two -tail test. Therefore, we reject the null hypothesis H0 here because the t=-4.24 is within the reject area, estimate of coefficient b is statistical significant. Overall, the price of TESCO has a downward trend by -0.16 each month. What’s more, the time trend regression model is statistical significant-beta coefficient. According to the R-squared figure, 54.6% of price change in TESCO is explained by the movements in time trend. ⅱ)Time trend regression model for Barclays Modelling the BARC price level using OLS method The equation for BARC is P=439960-0.179062t ...
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...International Journal of Banking and Finance Volume 9 | Issue 1 Article 3 6-5-2012 Modelling and forecasting volatility in the gold market Stefan Trück Macquarie University, stefan.trueck@mq.edu.au Kevin Liang Macquarie University Follow this and additional works at: http://epublications.bond.edu.au/ijbf Recommended Citation Trück, Stefan and Liang, Kevin (2012) "Modelling and forecasting volatility in the gold market," International Journal of Banking and Finance: Vol. 9: Iss. 1, Article 3. Available at: http://epublications.bond.edu.au/ijbf/vol9/iss1/3 This Journal Article is brought to you by the Faculty of Business at ePublications@bond. It has been accepted for inclusion in International Journal of Banking and Finance by an authorized administrator of ePublications@bond. For more information, please contact Bond University's Repository Coordinator. Trück and Liang: Forecasting volatility in the gold market International Journal of Banking and Finance, Volume 9 (Number 1), 2012: pages 48-80 MODELLING AND FORECASTING VOLATILITY IN THE GOLD MARKET Stefan Trück and Kevin Liang Macquarie University, Australia _____________________________________________ Abstract We investigate the volatility dynamics of gold markets. While there are a number of recent studies examining volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR) measures in financial and commodity markets, none of them focuses on the gold market. We use a large number of statistical models to model...
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...Business AnAlytics And intelligence Course Starting: 29 June 2014 Application Deadline: Early Decision 28 February 2014 Regular Decision 15 April 2014 (Batch 5) (Classes conducted on-campus as well as off-campus) Certificate Programme on Business Analytics and Intelligence BATCH 5 in god We trust, All Others Must Bring data - W edwards deming he theory of bounded rationality proposed by nobel laureate Herbert Simon is evermore significant today with increasing complexity of the business problems; limited ability of human mind to analyze alternative solutions and the limited time available for decision making. introduction of enterprise resource planning (eRP) systems has ensured availability of data in many organizations; however, traditional eRP systems lacked data analysis capabilities that can assist the management in decision making. Business Analytics is a set of techniques and processes that can be used to analyse data to improve business performance through fact-based decision making. Business Analytics is the subset of Business intelligence, which creates capabilities for companies to compete in the market effectively. Business Analytics is likely to become one of the main functional areas in most companies. Analytics companies develop the ability to support their decisions through analytic reasoning using a variety of statistical and mathematical techniques. thomas devonport in his book titled, “competing on analytics: the new science of winning”, claims...
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...Economic Modelling 28 (2011) 2404–2408 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Economic Modelling j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w. e l s ev i e r. c o m / l o c a t e / e c m o d Regime-switching effects of debt on real GDP per capita the case of Latin American and Caribbean countries Tsangyao Chang ⁎, Gengnan Chiang Department of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t In this paper, we try to investigate how the debt and real GDP per capita relationship varies with indebtedness levels and other country characteristics in a balanced panel of 21 developing Latin American and Caribbean countries over the period 1992–2006. The empirical results indicate that there exist two threshold values of 32.88% and 55.89%. The latter is lower than the Maastricht criterion and Stability and Growth Pact of a total external Debt per GDP ratio at 60% in the OECD countries. Both thresholds divide our panel into three regimes. In the middle (stimulus) regime, the Debt per GDP ratio has a positive impact on real GDP per capita, which is consistent with the stimulus view (Eisner, 1984). However, the impact becomes negative and consistent with the crowding-out view (Friedman, 1977, 1985) in the left and right (crowding-out) regimes. Based on our findings, we find no supportive evidence for Ricardian view (Barro, 1989). Therefore, our empirical results have important implications for fiscal policymakers in these Latin...
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...operations began, the company declared bankruptcy and its assets were ultimately sold for only $25 million, leaving the lenders with a total loss. It is obvious that projections made by the company and endorsed by the most prestigious banks on Wall Street were comical leading to massive losses for banks, debt investors and equity investors. It is also clear that the company made some mistakes in marketing such as not having sufficient phones available after a major advertising campaign. The questions I would like you to address in this case are what was underneath the crazy assumptions and financial projections made by these highly respected financial institutions and how could the banks and other institutions made the loans. Step 1: Skim over the Case Write-ups Because the case was such a dramatic failure, a number of case studies have been written on the case. For background, I have attached three case studies written on the case (one from Harvard, one from Northwestern and one from Thunderbird) as well as financial documents published by the company. You do not have to read everything in detail, but just skim through the readings three cases to get a general idea what the case is about (I think it is easy reading). Step 2: Mechanical Modelling Issues I have used data from the case studies and actual financial statements to create a “base case” financial model in the attached file name “Iridium Case Study Exercise.” In preparing the case, the first step (after reviewing...
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...Long Run Forecast of the Covariance Matrix Name: Instructor: Course: University: Date: Abstract Table of Contents Abstract i 1. Introduction - 1 - 1.1. Research Background - 1 - 1.2. Research Objectives - 3 - 1.3. Research Approach and Scope - 3 - 1.4. Layout of the Report - 4 - 1. Introduction 2.1. Research Background Volatility is an important concept in finance. Volatility modelling and forecasting finds usage in several core financial operations, for instance – many asset-pricing models use volatility as an estimation parameter for simple risk; several famous option pricing formulas such as Black-Scholes use volatility; volatility estimates and forecasts are crucial for portfolio management and also in hedging risk. Because of the importance of volatility, as can be seen from the examples above, the interest in modelling and forecasting volatility has increased many-fold in recent times, with a special emphasis on forecasting. There are several types of techniques available for forecasting volatility, with extraordinary diversity of procedure such as the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models, Stochastic Volatility (SV) models, regime switching and threshold models. (Xiao and Aydemir, 2007:1) A broad division between the techniques is based on primary assumptions of constant variance i.e. homoscedastic e.g. AMA models, or non-constant variance i.e. heteroscedastic or...
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...CMYK CMYK Wo r k i n g P a p e r The Indian Journey to Basel II: Implementing Risk Management in Banks Dr. SS Satchidananda Sanjeev Shukla CBIT Centre of Banking and Information Technology Indian Institute of Information Technology 26/C, Electronic City, Bangalore And Oracle India Pvt. Ltd., DLF Corporate Park Block I DLF City Phase III Gurgaon 122002 CMYK CMYK CMYK CMYK CBIT Centre of Banking and Information Technology Indian Institute of Information Technology 26/C, Electronic City, Bangalore And Oracle India Pvt. Ltd., DLF Corporate Park Block I DLF City Phase III Gurgaon 122002 CMYK CMYK CMYK CMYK The Indian Journey to Basel II Implementing Risk Management in Banks ABSTRACT In this paper, we provide a perspective on the international regulatory framework for capital standards and its focus on implementation of risk management systems in banks with particular reference to the Indian scenario. We also discuss the Indian regulatory approach to this important challenge and the major issues involved in the Basel II implementation in the Indian context. We conclude with guidance for developing an implementation plan for ushering in effective and efficient risk management in banks. {SS Satchidananda1 Sanjeev Shukla2 } Banking in modern economies is all about risk management. The successful negotiation and implementation of Basel II Accord is likely to lead to an even sharper focus on the risk measurement and risk...
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...chapters on ● ● ● ● ● ● panel data and limited dependent variable models Problem-solving approach assumes no prior knowledge of econometrics emphasising intuition rather than formulae, giving students the skills and confidence to estimate and interpret models Detailed examples and case studies from finance show students how techniques are applied in real research Sample instructions and output from the popular computer package EViews enable students to implement models themselves and understand how to interpret results Gives advice on planning and executing a project in empirical finance, preparing students for using econometrics in practice Covers important modern topics such as time-series forecasting, volatility modelling, switching models and simulation methods Thoroughly class-tested in leading finance schools Chris Brooks is Professor of Finance at the ICMA Centre, University of Reading, UK, where he also obtained his PhD. He has published over sixty articles in leading academic and practitioner journals including the Journal of Business, the Journal of Banking and Finance, the Journal of Empirical Finance, the Review of Economics and Statistics and the Economic Journal. He is an associate editor of a number of journals including...
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...including two new chapters on ● ● ● ● ● ● panel data and limited dependent variable models Problem-solving approach assumes no prior knowledge of econometrics emphasising intuition rather than formulae, giving students the skills and confidence to estimate and interpret models Detailed examples and case studies from finance show students how techniques are applied in real research Sample instructions and output from the popular computer package EViews enable students to implement models themselves and understand how to interpret results Gives advice on planning and executing a project in empirical finance, preparing students for using econometrics in practice Covers important modern topics such as time-series forecasting, volatility modelling, switching models and simulation methods Thoroughly class-tested in leading finance schools Chris Brooks is Professor of Finance at the ICMA Centre, University of Reading, UK, where he also obtained his PhD. He has published over sixty articles in leading academic and practitioner journals including the Journal of Business, the Journal of Banking and Finance, the Journal of Empirical Finance, the Review of Economics and Statistics and the Economic Journal. He is an associate editor of a number of journals including the International Journal of...
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...XYZ National Bank A statistical data analysis was conducted regarding the checking accounts of the clients of XYZ National Bank. It encompasses tables and graphs representing the checking account balances in peso and the distribution of it among the four branches. It also includes characteristics of the accounts in terms of number of ATM transactions in the month, number of other bank services used, clients who have debit card and those who don’t have, clients who receive interest on the account and those who don’t. It was determined that the balance of a typical customer based on the data of the account balances in peso per client given is 149,986.67. It was also determined that twelve out of the said number of clients have more than P200,000 in their accounts. Using the frequency distribution we found out that Makati, Manila, Quezon City and Pasig City branches have sixteen, eighteen, thirteen and thirteen clients respectively. Thus, there is a difference in the distribution of the accounts among the four branches. For the mean and the median of the account balances for the said branches, the Makati branch has a mean of 128, 137.50 and a median of 139,700. On the other hand, Manila branch has a mean and a median of 187964.71 and 195800 respectively. It is discovered that the Quezon City branch has a mean of 135935.71 and a median of 150450, while the Pasig City branch has a mean and median of 149,986.67 and 148,700. For the standard deviation...
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...A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE ARTICLE “THE CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS OF BUSINESS PROCESS MANAGEMENT” WRITTEN BY TRKMAN (2010) COHORT 5 (BSS001-6) TABLE OF CONTENTS Pg 1. Executive summary……………………………………………………….......3 2. Introduction……………………………………………………………….…....4 3. Importance of the Study……………………………………………………....5 * BPMs relevance & Importance to Information Systems……………...5 4. Research problems and significance………………………………….........6 5. Contributions and originality……………………………………………...….7 6. Theoretical arguments………………………………………………………..8 *The Contingency Theory……………………………………………...….8 * Dynamic Capabilities Theory:……………………………………..…….9 *Task Technology Fit………………………………………………..….….9 7. Research methods ……………………………………………………..….....9 *An outline of the methods used for the research study……..…......…9 *Description of methods…………………………………………….......10 *Analysing the Methods suitability for the study………………………10 8. Key Findings of the study ………………………………………………..…12 9. Research Limitations ……………………………………………………….13 10. Suggestions for future research……………………………………….….14 11. Conclusion…………………………………………………………………...15 12. References…………………………………………………………………..16 13. Appendix* EXECUTIVE SUMMARY According to Zairi’s (1997) definition, BPM...
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...Comments/Suggestions: CPT 125 Pre-Requisite: Completion of 1st Year Courses Introduction: Systems Design is a central part of systems development. It comprises the process of turning a set of user requirements into an implementable system and encompasses various activities to achieve this end. Alternative models are challenging the traditional systems development life cycle. Alongside this, two approaches to systems development are emerging: the traditional structured approach; and the object oriented approach. The systems design activity will be studied in the context of these trends. Students should make themselves familiar with at least one traditional approach (e.g. SSADM) and one object oriented approach (e.g. UML). Aims: To understand the role of systems design within various systems development life cycles To develop awareness of the different approaches that may be taken to systems design To understand and apply the tools and techniques that are currently used by systems designers Formatted: Superscript Objectives: Describe different life cycle models and explain the contribution of systems design within them Discuss various systems development approaches and explain their strengths and weaknesses 1 30/09/1123/09/10 Evaluate the tools and techniques that may be used by a system designer in a given context Use appropriate methods to produce a system design for a given scenario Provide suitable systems documentation for a design Discuss the CASE...
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...limited by the ability to identify favourable combinations of genotypes (G) and management practices (M) given the resources available to search among possible combinations in the target population of environments (E). Crop improvement can be viewed as a search strategy on a complex G×M×E adaptation or fitness landscape. Here we consider design of an integrated systems approach to crop improvement that incorporates advanced technologies in molecular markers, statistics, bio-informatics, and crop physiology and modelling. We suggest that such an approach can enhance the efficiency of crop improvement relative to conventional phenotypic selection by changing the focus from the paradigm of identifying superior varieties to a focus on identifying superior combinations of genetic regions and management systems. A comprehensive information system to support decisions on identifying target combinations is the critical core of the approach. We discuss the role of ecophysiology and modelling in this integrated systems approach by reviewing (i) applications in environmental characterization to underpin weighted selection; (ii) complex-trait physiology and genetics to enhance the stability of QTL models by linking the vector of coefficients defining the dynamic model to the genetic regions generating variability; and (iii) phenotypic prediction in the target population of environments to assess the value of putative combinations of traits and management...
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