Premium Essay

The Empirical Research on the Effect of Investor Sentiment for the Stock Market of China Based on Stock Index Futures

In:

Submitted By julyyilin
Words 1134
Pages 5
Finance 金融, 2012, 2, 151-154 http://dx.doi.org/10.12677/fin.2012.23017 Published Online July 2012 (http://www.hanspub.org/journal/fin)

The Empirical Research on the Effect of Investor
Sentiment for the Stock Market of China Based on Stock Index Futures
Yongquan Pan, Zi Lin
Dongling School of Economics and Management, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing
Email: yqpan@ustb.edu.cn, linziliz@sina.com
Received: Feb. 6th, 2012; revised: Feb. 26th, 2012; accepted: Mar. 4th, 2012

Abstract: This paper discusses the affect of stock index futures for investor sentiment’s measure and study if the new indicator has better interpretation to stock returns than before. Finally, the reflection of the negative emotions on the market is studied by this indicator.
Keywords: Investor Sentiment; Stock Index Futures; Stock Return

基于股指期货的投资者情绪对中国股市
影响的实证研究
潘永泉,林



北京科技大学,东凌经济管理学院金融工程系,北京
Email: yqpan@ustb.edu.cn, linziliz@sina.com
收稿日期:2012 年 2 月 6 日;修回日期:2012 年 2 月 26 日;录用日期:2012 年 3 月 4 日



要:本文将股指期货合约作为投资者情绪的度量指标,研究在此基础上构建的投资者情绪指标是

否对于股票收益率有更强的解释能力,并以此研究其对股票市场的消极情绪是否反映的更为充分。
关键词:投资者情绪;股指期货;股票收益率

1. 引言

在之前的研究中,由于我国实际上没有做空机

投资者非理性行为是否会影响股票价格和收益

制,所以在测度投资者情绪时经常采用市场换手率、

是现代金融理论和行为金融理论争论的焦点。现代金

封闭式基金折价和投资者开户增长率等指标,但是,

融理论认为,在某种程度上某些投资者可能并非理

自从 2010 年以来,股指期货市场出现,投资者可以

性,但由于他们之间的交易是随机进行的,所以他们

利用股指期货来做空股票,因此之前的测度中,市场

的非理性会相互抵消,
股票价格不会受到影响。
因此,

的消极情绪反映的不够充分,
但是,
有了做空机制后,

股票的价格等于其基础价值,股票的预期收益由其基

市场的消极情绪得以反映。

础风险大小决定。而行为金融理论则认为,由于非理

Black(1986)将“噪音交易者”并引入股票市场,

性投资者行为的不可预测性和套利的非完美性,理性

并把他们定义为不拥有内部信息却非理性地把噪音

套利者并不能及时纠正非理性投资者导致的股票价

当作有用信息进行交易的人,噪音交易者的存在提高

[1]

格与价值之间的偏离 。
Copyright © 2012 Hanspub

了股票市场的流动性,同时也降低了市场的有效性[2]
151

基于股指期货的投资者情绪对中国股市影响的实证研究

这一观点的提出打破了市场有效性假说,也给予金融

准是:二者之差的平方和最小。根据最小二乘原理,

研究更广阔的空间。

建立如下回归方程:

在国内的研究中,池丽旭与庄新田(2011)基于基

Similar Documents

Premium Essay

Trades

...64 Management Insight INDIAN FUTURES MARKET : AN ANALYSIS Agha Nuruzzaman* ABSTRACT The Indian government’s efforts are directed towards the establishment of a free, fair, transparent and fully informed market with help of the Futures market, so that futures prices are truly determined by the forces of demand and supply. In the long term, the continuing rapid growth of economy in India creates a huge potential for Futures market. This study is an effort to understand the factors under PEST Analysis. For this purpose, data from different sources were collected and later analyzed by using statistical techniques. With an improving agriculture, widening scope of education, a balanced economy, friendlier infrastructure, vividly sketched out laws unstained by any kind of corruption will create the right climate for swift growth of the futures market. The PEST analysis shows that most of the factors considered are indeed going in favour of India’s futures market. INTRODUCTION A futures contract is a legally binding agreement to buy or sell a commodity or financial instrument sometime in the future at a price agreed upon at the time of the trade. While actual physical delivery of the underlying assets seldom takes place, futures contracts are nonetheless standardized according to delivery specifications, including the quality, quantity, and time and location. The only variable is price, which is discovered through the trading process. In this study we ...

Words: 6883 - Pages: 28

Premium Essay

Relationship Management Index Using Holistic Approach

...Relationship Marketing Index Using Holistic Approach A project report submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for B.Tech. Project B.Tech. By Katum Yomcha (2010IPG-50) Divyank Shekhar Singh (2010IPG-34) Pradeep Kr. Meena(2010IPG-109) ABV INDIAN INSTITUTE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT GWALIOR-474 010 2013 CANDIDATE/S DECLARATION We hereby certify that the work which is being presented in the B. Tech. Project Report entitled “Relationship Marketing Index Using Holistic Approach”, in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the award of the Degree of Bachelor of Technology and submitted to the institution, is an authentic record of our own work carried out during the period from May/2013 to September/2013 under the supervision of Prof. Deepali Singh. I/we also cited the reference about the text(s)/figure(s)/table(s) from where they have been taken. The matter presented in this report has not been submitted by us for the award of any other degree elsewhere. Date: Signature of Candidates Katum Yomcha Divyank Shekhar Singh Pradeep Kr. Meena (2010 IPG 050) (2010 IPG 034) (2010 IPG 109) This is to certify that...

Words: 9270 - Pages: 38

Premium Essay

Capital Markets Investment and Finance

...Introduction: Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) implies markets to be rational, incorporating new information to reflect in stock prices rapidly, considering direction and size of the share price movement. Consequently, leaving no opportunities for investors to beat the market and acquire abnormal returns. Predictable information raises the stock prices prior to its occurrence, and rapidly adjusting at the event date. Addendum to EMH, Random Walk Theory proposes market prices abide no pressure from past-price movements thus pursue a random course, making impossible to forecast future-price movements as they are an independent of past-prices. Fama (1970) establish three-level grading system portraying degree of market efficiency, based on investment approach endowing abnormal returns: Market anomalies are inconsistent with EMH and a consequence of deviations and incomprehensible patterns in smooth running of stock markets. Anomalies are statistically considerable and additionally proffer investors with risk adjusted economic returns. Once documented and scrutinized in literature, anomalies tend to disappear, overturn, or attenuate; doubting their subsistence in past, as being statistical irregularity, or have been arbitraged away. This essay will begin by defining limitations of CAPM and introduce three-factor model. Additionally, it will discuss the fundamental anomalies (Value and Size effects), calendar anomalies (January, Weekend and Time-of-the-month effects) and Technical...

Words: 5201 - Pages: 21

Premium Essay

Method Research

...Huijie Bao Program Economics of Innovation and Growth Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) June 2010 Supervisor: Börje Johansson ABSTRACT This thesis focuses on the relationship between financial leverage and investment in Chinese listed firms. There are two novel aspects embraced here. One is choosing a marginal version of Tobin’s q instead of average q with Chinese data. Another one is taking the financial sector in to consideration. The research covers all sectors in the Chinese stock market. Main outcomes are listed below. Leverage imposes negative effects on investment, especially on non-state owned firms. Like Financials, Manufacturing and other highly regulated sectors, the inverse impacts of debt are week as well. However, marginal q fails in proof under the specific environment of the Chinese capital market which is still immature. High-leveraged firms experienced reverse influences of marginal q on investment. To sum up, over-debt financing indeed blocks the sustained investment. Relatively speaking, state owned firms in China suffer less since they are supported by the government and have fewer restrictions. Key words: financial leverage, marginal q, gross investment and state owned firms 2 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Firstly, I would like to express my strong gratitude to my supervisor, Prof. Börje Johansson, whose profound knowledge, guidance and patience, greatly enhanced my graduate experience. I am so appreciated his patience and assistance in writing reports...

Words: 12376 - Pages: 50

Premium Essay

Equakun

...Capital Market of Bangladesh: Volatility in the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) and Role of Regulators Md. Tariqur Rahman (Corresponding author) Senior Research Associate, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) House No. 40/C, Road No, 11 (New) Dhanmondi R/A, Dhaka-1209, Bangladesh Tel: 880-2-812-4770, 9141734 Ext-146 E-mail: rahmantariqdu@gmail.com Khondker Golam Moazzem Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) House No. 40/C, Road No, 11 (New) Dhanmondi R/A, Dhaka-1209, Bangladesh Tel: 880-2-812-4770, 9141734 Ext-147 E-mail: moazzem@cpd.org.bd Received: December 17, 2010 Accepted: February 27, 2011 doi:10.5539/ijbm.v6n7p86 Abstract Over the last few years, the capital market of Bangladesh has witnessed a haughty growth which is not in line of development in the real sector of the economy. Although, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of Bangladesh has tried to correct the irregular behavior observed in the market, very often it is argued that lack of proper and firm decisions from the regulator’s side has contributed to make the market more unstable rather than to reduce it. The paper attempts to identify the casual relationship between the observed volatility in the country’s major bourses namely the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) and the regulatory decisions taken by the SEC empirically. Using Vector Auto-regressive (VAR), statistically highly significant relationship was found between decisions taken by the regulatory authority and market volatility...

Words: 5574 - Pages: 23

Premium Essay

Fii in India

...Members Today * R Pramod (199) * Ajay (121) * Abhinav (75)Last 7 Days * R Pramod (1735) * Sukhdev Singh (962) * Pramod (598)more... | Impact of Foreign Institutional Investors on Indian Stock Market Posted Date:     Total Responses: 0    Posted By: hardeep   Member Level: Silver   Points/Cash: 10    | | CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION 1.1 INTRODUCTION 1.1.1 FOREIGN INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS FII is defined as an institution organized outside of India for the purpose of making investments into the Indian securities market under the regulations prescribed by SEBI. ‘FII’ include “Overseas pension funds, mutual funds, investment trust, asset management company, nominee company, bank, institutional portfolio manager, university funds, endowments, foundations, charitable trusts, charitable societies, a trustee or power of attorney holder incorporated or established outside India proposing to make proprietary investments or investments on behalf of a broad-based fund. FIIs can invest their own funds as well as invest on behalf of their overseas clients registered as such with SEBI. These client accounts that the FII manages are known as ‘sub-accounts’. A domestic portfolio manager can also register itself as an FII to manage the. funds of sub-accounts Foreign institutional investor means an entity established...

Words: 17999 - Pages: 72

Premium Essay

Issue Manager Reputation, Underpricing and Long-Run Performance of Initial Public Offerings:

...OFFERINGS: EVIDENCE FROM THE SINGAPORE IPO MARKET VOON PEIJUN (Bachelor of Business Administration (Hons), NUS) A THESIS SUBMITTED FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTERS OF SCIENCE (BUSINESS) DEPART DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE AND ACCOUNTING NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE 2009 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to express my warmest gratitude to Professor Michael Shih for his patient guidance and encouragement all this while. A very big thank you, Sir. I would also like to take this opportunity to thank my family for their love and concern all these years. Thank you Dad, Mum and Brother. Without their support, I would not have come so far. Thank you! Voon Peijun 2009 Page i ABSTRACT The study explores the role of issue managers in the initial public offering (IPO) process. Empirical research shows that IPOs are associated with two significant market anomalies: short-run underpricing puzzle and long-run underperformance phenomenon. This paper examines the reputational influence of issue managers on the two anomalies. Employing the newly developed ‘twelve-month rolling’ reputation ranking approach, our study is the first to furnish a comprehensive ranking of all the issue managers with a substantial presence in Singapore. Based on a sample of 384 IPOs listed on the Singapore Exchange between January 1, 1997 and August 22, 2008, we find evidence of prevalent short-run underpricing and long-run underperformance in the domestic market. Our findings indicate that the IPOs backed...

Words: 28110 - Pages: 113

Free Essay

Ratio Analysis

...MORGAN NORTH STANLEY RESEARCH AMERICA Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Adam S. Parker, Ph.D Adam.Parker@morganstanley.com +1 212 761 1755 Brian T. Hayes, Ph.D Brian.T.Hayes@morganstanley.com Antonio Ortega Antonio.Ortega@morganstanley.com November 26, 2012 Adam J. Gould, CFA Adam.Gould@morganstanley.com US Equity Strategy The 2013 Playbook We are launching our 2013 US equity outlook today. We have been cautious on US equities for much of the last two years. Our concerns around US deficit / debt and the obvious borrowing from the future that occurs from unconventional policy, the European sovereign crisis, and slower growth in emerging markets generally remain, but the acuteness of these issues appears for now to be less sharp. Our 2013 year-end target calls for low-to-mid single digit upside (Exhibit 1) predicated on our view that 2014 corporate earnings are likely to modestly recover from our 2013 forecasted level, perhaps with profits troughing during the April 2013 earnings season. Our year-end 2013 S&P500 price target is 1434, and our bull and bear targets are 1733 and 1135 (Exhibit 1). Our EPS outlook for 2014 is $110.21, up from our 2013 forecast of $98.71, both well below consensus. Improving Michigan Confidence and tightening corporate spreads drive the relative improvement in our earnings outlook. Please see our Interactive Model: S&P500: 2013 Year-End Forecast, also published today, to play with key assumptions and change assumptions for EPS...

Words: 21028 - Pages: 85

Premium Essay

Acceptance of E-Banking Among Customers

...1 | Journal of Management and Science Vol.2, No.1 ISSN:2249-1260/EISSN:2250-1819 ACCEPTANCE OF E-BANKING AMONG CUSTOMERS (An Empirical Investigation in India) K.T. Geetha1 & V.Malarvizhi2 Professor and Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Avinashilingam Institute for home Science and Higher Education for Women Coimbatore -641043, TamilNadu, India 1 2 Abstract Financial liberalization and technology revolution have allowed the developments of new and more efficient delivery and processing channels as well as more innovative products and services in banking industry. Banking institutions are facing competition not only from each other but also from non-bank financial intermediaries as well as from alternative sources of financing. Another strategic challenge facing banking institutions today is the growing and changing needs and expectations of consumers in tandem with increased education levels and growing wealth. Consumers are becoming increasingly discerning and have become more involved in their financial decisions. This paper investigates the factors which are affecting the acceptance of ebanking services among the customers and also indicates level of concern regarding security and privacy issues in Indian context. Primary data was collected from 200 respondents through a structured questionnaire. Descriptive statistics was used to explain demographic profile of respondents and Factor and Regression analyses were used to know the factors affecting e-banking...

Words: 18353 - Pages: 74

Premium Essay

Capital Market

...PROJECT ON CAPITAL MARKET GUIDE CERTIFICATE It is hereby certified that the project report on “CAPITAL MARKET”, being submitted by Shelly jumba student of the degree of Master of Business Administration (3rd Sem) of CT Institute of Management and Information Technology, Jalandhar which affiliated to Punjab Technical University, Jalandhar is an original work carried out successfully under my guidance and supervision and that no part of this project has been submitted for any other degree/ diploma. The sincerely efforts put in during the course of investigation is hereby acknowledged. Project guide Miss Shivani jagneja Lect. CTIM& IT DECLARATION This project entitled Empirical Study on “CAPITAL MARKET” is submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the award of degree of master of business administration of Punjab technical university, Jalandhar. .This research work has been done only for MBA only and none of this research work has been submitted for any other degree. The assistance and help during the execution of the project has been fully acknowledged. PREFACE The successful completion of this project was a unique experience for us because by visiting many place and interacting various person, I achieved a better knowledge about this project. The experience which I gained by doing this project was essential at this turning point of my carrier this project is being submitted which content detailed analysis of the research under taken by me....

Words: 16886 - Pages: 68

Premium Essay

Market

...Issues and Concerns of Commodity Derivative Markets in India: An Agenda for Research Nilanjan Ghosh 1. Introduction Commodity derivative markets have traditionally been a contentious issue at various policy forums across the world, particularly with the imbroglio created by allegations from various corners that they encourage excessive speculation and are therefore responsible for the recent commodity price escalation. While this suspicion of excessive speculation in the commodity markets has always been there among policymakers in developing nations like India, it has become more widespread since 2008 in the wake of worldwide inflationary pressures on food and energy. The sudden deflation in the value of various assets underlying different derivatives, which includes commodity derivatives, in the wake of the global meltdown has provoked greater apprehension about the economic utility of futures markets. The suspicion has reached such a high that even the U.S., the biggest proponent of market forces with the most active commodity exchanges in the world, is considering new modes of regulation, and is also investigating the role of commodity derivative trading in the steep rise in prices of wheat, rice, and crude oil. On the other hand, ever since commodity derivative trading was allowed in India in the new millennium, there has always been a hue and cry against such markets, with the alleged notion of excessive “speculation”, though there has rarely been any evidence for it. Rather...

Words: 6878 - Pages: 28

Premium Essay

The Impact of Pension Sector Reforms on the Financial Viability of Pension Plans in Kenya

...INTRODUCTION 1.0. 1.1. 1.2. 1.3. 1.4. 1.5. 1.6. Background of the Study The Conceptual Basis of Social Security Schemes The Kenyan Contextual Basis of Social Security Problem Statement Research Questions and Objectives Research Hypotheses Importance of the study 1 3 10 19 22 22 23 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.0. Introduction 2.1. Review of Theoretical Literature on Financial Viability of Pension Schemes 2.2. Review of Empirical Literature of Studies on the Solvency of Pension Schemes 2.3. Models for Evaluating the Financial Viability of Pension Schemes 2.4. A Summary of the Knowledge and Research Gaps 25 25 46 60 68 REFERENCES APPENDICES i Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1784297 GLOSSARY CAC CALPERS CAPSA CBS C-D CEO CGE CSR DB DC E.T.I EME ERISA FMA GASB GDP GSP INPFRS INSS IPD IRA IRBS KNAO KNBS LUPFUND NSE NSSF NYSCRF OECD OSFI PBGC PLC PPF PPR PROST PRPOPS PSPS PSSS RBA SAM SIPO SOX SSNIT SSS Commonwealth Authorities and Companies Act CEO California Public Employees Retirement System The Canadian Association of Pension Supervisory Authorities Central Bureau of Statistics Cobb-Douglas economy Chief Executive Officer Computable General Equilibrium Corporate Social Responsibility Defined Benefit Defined Contribution Economically Targeted Investments Emerging Market Economies Employee Retirement Income Security Act Financial Management and Accountability Act Government Accounting Standards Board Gross domestic Product Gross State Product...

Words: 37595 - Pages: 151

Free Essay

Introducing India

...the leading economies in the world India has emerged as the winner even in the global meltdown of 2008. This has made the country a safe haven for the potential investors in the last couple of decades after the country opens up for the global world after liberalization in 1991. Some of the characteristics of the country are as follows: Capital | New Delhi | Form of Government | Democratic/Republic | Population | 1.21 billion | Per Capita Income | $3851 | Inflation rate | 5.96% | GDP growth | 4.5% | External Debt | $345 billion | External Debt to GDP ratio | 67.57 | Trade Balance | -967.2 billion | Language | Official: Hindi, English. Many more recognized | Major cities | Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata | Climate | | Trade Block association | ASEAN, SAARC, | GINI Coefficient | 36.8 | Human Development Index | 0.554 | Much recent news confirms the fact that India is one of the major destinations for the expansion. Recently Jet-Etihad deal, high growth in FII in the Indian Stock market, green field and brown field investment in the sectors of aviation, multi-retail are some the recent news and changes in the law made in the country making the investment safer and more diverse. According to E&Y report going forward economic outlook for the country is very encouraging. Global sentiments for the country have improved a lot in the recent past despite of some complications in the economy. Also most of the leading indicators specify the...

Words: 3256 - Pages: 14

Premium Essay

Finanacemade Easy

...and not when they are paid, because the service has already been used. The company ignored the date when the payment will be made. An airline sells its tickets days or even weeks before the flight is made, but it does not record the payments as revenue because the flight, the event on which the revenue is based has not occurred yet. Acquisition - When one company purchases a majority interest in the acquired. Ad valorem -A tax based on the assessed value of real estate or asset. Ad valorem taxes can be property tax or even duty on imported items. Property ad valorem taxes are the major source of revenue for state and municipal governments.  Explanation: The phrase ad valorem is Latin for "according to value". In the case of municipal property taxes, property owners have their property assessed on a periodic basis by a public tax assessor. Aging schedule - Table that classifies accounts payable or accounts receivable according to their dates. It helps in analyzing which payments are behind their due date, and by how many days. American depository receipt-A negotiable certificate issued by a U.S. bank representing a specified number of shares (or one share) in a foreign stock that is traded on a U.S. exchange. ADRs are denominated in U.S. dollars, with the underlying security held by a U.S. financial institution overseas. ADRs help to reduce administration and duty costs that would otherwise be levied on each transaction. Explanation: This is an excellent way to buy shares in...

Words: 19165 - Pages: 77

Premium Essay

Hedge Fund

....................................................................................................................  11   MAJOR  HEDGE  FUNDS  .........................................................................................................................................................  13   BALANCE  SHEET  OF  A  HEDGE  FUND  ..............................................................................................................................  14   INCOME  STATEMENT  OF  A  HEDGE  FUND  .....................................................................................................................  18   ROLES  OF  HEDGE  FUNDS  IN  MARKETS...

Words: 22449 - Pages: 90