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The Influence of Chinese Capital Flows on Zambia

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Submitted By mrubenderoos
Words 1270
Pages 6
Rens Boing
Roy van der Meij
Ruben de Roos
De invloed van Chinese kapitaalstromen op Zambia “We like Chinese investment because we have one meeting, we discuss what they want to do, and then they just do it. There are no benchmarks and preconditions”
Sahr Johnny, Sierra Leone’s ambassador in Beijing (Hilsum, New Statesman, 2005)
Inleiding
Chinese handel en investeringen in Sub-Saharisch Afrika zijn drastisch gegroeid in de afgelopen tien jaar(zie tabel 2). De handel is gestegen naar meer dan zestig miljard dollar en investeringen zijn meer dan vertienvoudigd (Zafar, 2007: 116, 123-125). De samenwerking met China blijkt voor veel landen beter te zijn voor de ontwikkeling van de nationale economie dan eerdere voorwaardelijke leningen van de IMF. Deze optiek wordt ook wel de Beijing Consensus genoemd, een school van ontwikkelingsdenken die haaks tegenover de neoliberale Washington Consensus staat (Ramo, 2004). In dit essay wordt onderzocht of Chinese investeringen tot sustainable growth kunnen leiden.
De Beijing Consensus is een reactie op de Washington Consensus. Deze doctrine stelde specifieke beleidsmaatregelen aan ontwikkelingslanden om tot economische groei te komen. Voorop staan de vrijstelling van de markt en het terugdringen van de staat, zoals bijvoorbeeld door privatisering (Williamson, 1990). De explosieve groei van China, die deze weg absoluut niet bewandelde, en het averechtse effect dat de Washington Consensus had op verscheidene landen, leidde Joshua Ramo tot het schrijven van de Beijing Consensus (Ramo, 2004). De Beijing Consensus concentreert zich op investeringen in infrastructuur, in plaats van conditionele leningen. Waar de Washington Consensus een bepaalde binnenlandse politiek voorstelt, houdt men zich afzijdig van politiek in de Beijing Consensus.
In dit essay zal Zambia als case dienen. Daar heeft een programma van het IMF in de jaren ’90 tot weinig sustainable growth geleid (Carmody, 2009: 1198). China heeft een grote vraag naar koper, en heeft dan ook grote investeringen in de kopermijnen en omliggende infrastructuur gedaan(Ibidem: 1199). In de volgende paragrafen wordt de invloed van deze kapitaalstromen op de Zambiaanse economie besproken.

Gevolgen Chinese kapitaalstromen
Chinese handel, investeringen en buitenlandse financiële hulp heeft gezorgd voor een appreciatie van de Zambiaanse geldeenheid, de kwacha: 35% tegen de US dollar in 2005 (Carmody,2008). Het importeren van kapitale goederen werd hierdoor goedkoper voor Zambia. Daar staat tegenover dat de grotere importkracht en een betere handelsrelatie met China o.a. de textiel industrie van Zambia heeft verdrongen. Juist industrieën als de textiel industrie zijn nodig voor sustainable growth in Zambia, omdat deze een hoge arbeid absorptie hebben. Hoewel koper export is gestegen en blijft stijgen, is door de appreciatie van de kwacha de algehele export gedaald. “The share of non-traditional exports in total earnings declined from 39% in 2002 to 25.7% in 2005.” (Carmody,2008).
De appreciatie van de kwacha heeft verder als gevolg dat de staatsschuld relatief is gedaald, waardoor er minder geld bijgedrukt hoeft te worden en de inflatie daalt. De inflatie is gedaald van 30.3% in 2004 naar 12,4% in 2009. (Carmody,2008)
Het GDP van Zambia is de afgelopen jaren toegenomen (tabel 1) en de armoede is gedaald van 73% in 1998 naar 64% in 2004(Carmody, 2008). De vraag is echter of er sprake is van sustainable growth. De groei van de Zambiaanse economie in de laatste jaren is namelijk vooral veroorzaakt door de groei in de koperindustrie. De kopermijnen zijn in 2000 onder druk van het IMF en de Wereldbank geprivatiseerd, waarna de chinezen ze in handen hebben gekregen. Het grootste deel van de winst gaat hierdoor niet naar de Zambianen. Zij werken in de mijnen voor een laag loon in slechte omstandigheden(Carmody, 2008). De koperindustrie is bovendien door modernisering minder arbeidsintensief geworden, wat de groei in arbeidsplaatsen remt. De kopermijnen alleen zorgen ook niet voor sustainable growth aangezien de kopervoorraad eindig is. De subsectoren van de Zambiaanse economie die wel arbeidsintensief zijn, zoals de textielindustrie en de landbouwsector, hebben het juist moeilijker, omdat ze moeten concurreren met goedkope Chinese exportproducten(Carmody, 2008).
De belastinginkomsten op de grondstoffen van Zambia zijn wel de afgelopen jaren vertienvoudigd(Carmody,2008), waardoor de overheid meer geld heeft om de armoede in Zambia te bestrijden. De overheid is ook bezig een hoger opgeleid Zambia, sustained growth en armoede bestrijding te bewerkstelligen(USAID, 2011, p.3). Dit doen ze doormiddel van national development plans. Vorig jaar is het Sixth National Development Plan uitgekomen(gericht op ontwikkeling van infrastructuur, landbouw en menselijk kapitaal), die loopt van 2011-2015. De vraag is alleen hoe succesvol deze pogingen zijn aangezien 80% van de plattelandsbevolking nog in armoede leeft(USAID, 2011, p.3). in het SNDP wordt dan ook gesteld: “the economic growth experienced during the last decade has not translated into significant reductions in poverty and improved general living conditions of the majority of Zambians”(USAID, 2011, p.3)
Theorie
Om de hierboven beschreven veranderingen te illustreren gebruiken wij het IS-LM-BP model beschreven in Pilbeam(2006, pp , 69-97). Zambia heeft een zwevende wisselkoers en wij gaan van een kleine open economie met perfecte kapitaal mobiliteit, waardoor de BP curve horizontaal loopt. De leningen die China verstrekt aan Zambia zijn voornamelijk voor investeringen in infrastructuur. De investeringen stijgen dus waardoor de IS-curve naar rechts schuift(naar IS’, zie bijlage 3). De kapitaalinstroom vanuit China zorgt verder voor een surplus op de balance of payements, waardoor de Kwacha apprecieert. De LM curve verschuift hierdoor naar rechts. De appreciatie van de munt zorgt voor een daling van de export en een verhoging van de import, waardoor de IS curve weer een stukje naar links verschuift(zie bijlage). Het nieuwe evenwichtspunt ligt bij een hoger inkomen en een gelijk gebleven rente(bij IS’’, zie bijlage 3).. De gevolgen beschreven in het model zijn ook terug te zien in Zambia. De Kwacha is de afgelopen jaren geapprecieerd(Carmody,2008) en het GDP is gestegen((zie tabel 1).

Conclusie
De Chinese investeringen in Zambia hebben dus zowel positieve als negatieve gevolgen. De gevolgen zijn dat de overheid door de appreciatie van de Kwacha een lagere schuldenlast heeft, maar daar staat tegenover dat door de toenemende importen en de afnemende exporten de lopende rekening verslechterd. Bovendien zorgen de Chinese investeringen voor groei in Zambia, maar de sectoren die het meest groeien zijn voornamelijk in handen van de Chinezen en worden steeds minder arbeidsintensief. De lange termijn gevolgen van Zambia moeten nog blijken de overheid is wel al bezig met het proberen te bereiken van sustainable growth, maar is voorlopig nog niet succesvol. Het GDP blijft echter wel stijgen en de inflatie blijft dalen dus als de overheid de extra inkomsten blijft gebruiken om structurele hervormingen te blijven door voeren dan zullen de kapitaalstromen een positieve invloed hebben op de lange termijn. Mocht dit niet gebeuren dan zal de groei resource constrained blijven en zullen ze er op de lange termijn slechter voor staan (dutch disease).

Bibliografie
Carmody, P. ‘An Asian-Driven Economic Recovery in Africa? The Zambian Case’ in World Development 37.7, 2009
Hilsum L. ‘The Chinese are Coming,’ The New Statesman, 4 juli 2005
Kragelund, P. ‘Part of the Disease Or Part of the Cure? Chinese Investments in the Zambian Mining and Construction Sectors’. European Journal of Development Research, 21, september 2009
Mhango, Y. ‘Zambia economic outlook, smooth return to pre-crisis trend growth’. Februari 2010
Ramo, JC. ‘’The Beijing Consensus’, 2004
United States Agency International Development, Country Development Cooperation Strategy, 2011
Williamson, J. ‘What Washington Means by Policy Reform’, 1990
Zafar, A. ‘The Growing Relationship Between China and Sub-Saharan Africa’, The World Bank Research Observer 22. 1, 2007

Bijlagen:
Bijlage 1 (Mangho, 2010, p.9)

Bijlage 2 (Kragelund, 2009)

Bijlage 3

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