...A Decision of Uncertainty A Decision of Uncertainty Paper There are decisions that people make where the outcome is presumably known and, there are the decisions that people make where the results are unknown. The latter part of the aforementioned statement is also known as decisions of uncertainty. To make these choices with more confidence, we will explore concepts that will formulate these judgments. We also have to include appropriate probability concepts that will help limit uncertainty in certain decisions. This paper will disclose the decision to reside in the tri-state area with the probability of destructive hurricanes occurring. Next this paper will reveal concepts and the outcome from the statistical analysis that was used to determine the final decision and, the tradeoffs between accuracy and precision required by various probability concepts. As a final point, this paper will demonstrate the effects the decision had on the data provided and the decision that was ultimately made. Probability Concepts and Application Hurricane Sandy hit Atlantic City, New Jersey on October 29, 2012. A 900-mile wide storm, Sandy affected the entire northeastern United States with devastating winds, rain and floods. New Jersey and New York suffered the worst from the super storm leaving thousands of people without power for days. People living in this area were not prepared or expected the storm to devastate the area as it did leaving homes and personal...
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...commissioners in 2007, began in May of 2011. As of July 2011, construction of the joint Medical Mart-Cleveland Convention Center is well underway on the historic Mall. It is the goal of the project to capitalize on Cleveland's reputation as a world class medical center by bringing medical shows and conventions to the city. The Medical Mart concept is modeled after that of the Merchandise Mart in Chicago, and will be managed by MMPI, the same company that operates the Merchandise Mart and will open in 2013(About Cleveland MMCC , 2011). This paper will discuss how risks were identified, ranked, and monitored for the Cleveland Medical Mart project. Identifying Risk Risk management is the identification, assessment, and prioritization risk in a project. It attempts to minimize, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events or to maximize the realization of opportunities. Risks can come from uncertainty in financial markets, project failures, at any phase in design, development, production, or sustainment life-cycles, legal liabilities, credit risk, accidents, natural causes and disasters as well as deliberate attack...
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...The Top 5 Risks Encountered in a Shutdown or Turnaround A White Paper by Ej Lister Director – STO & EPC Project Consulting IPEC Project Systems, Malaysia Knowing the Enemy Managing risk during day-to-day operations in the manufacturing industry is challenging enough without periodically having to shut down to ensure asset and process integrity. With complex processes generating high pressure, high temperature and high flow-rates, combined with hydrocarbons, chemicals and vapors, any loss of control can amount to significant, even catastrophic failures—often resulting in social and financial losses. Industry has come a long way in reducing and mitigating risk during day-to-day operations. When it comes to navigating complex projects like Shutdowns and Turnarounds, however, the ability to manage risk remains one of Management’s greatest challenges. Although the consequences remain the same— human, environment, social, financial, reputation and asset losses—the probability of an occurrence during the execution of a Shutdown or Turnaround is much greater. The very nature of executing complex and risky projects every few years, under pressure to keep costs low and outage durations short, increases the potential for something to go wrong. This paper explores the top five risks encountered in a Shutdown or Turnaround and their probability and consequence, along with suggestions to minimize their impact. Companies have a great deal to learn when it comes to managing risk during a Shutdown...
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...Decision of Uncertainty Paper As a health care establishment, it is easy to become caught up in the day- to- day tasks at hand without addressing the needs or concerns of the patients. With the change in the economy and the reasons for the emergency room being utilized, it is important to take a moment to see how the flow of the delivery of services can be confined to smooth transitions. This paper will include appropriate probability concepts, rationale, statistical analysis, and a decision tailored to research studies specific to the thesis statement, question response types, and classification of our findings. Thesis Question "Does the emergency room get utilized more by a particular race and is there a reason for this occurrence?" Appropriate Probability Concepts and Your Application of Them to Find Resulting Data To Limit the Uncertainty of this Decision Probability theory is an important part of statistical theory that bridges descriptive and inferential statistics. It is the science of uncertainty, chance or likelihood (Cooper & Schindler, 2008). There are three kinds of probability; classical, empirical and subjective. In this instance, we will focus on a mixture of empirical probability which is based on past experiences and subjective probability which a probability is assigned to an event based upon whatever evidence is available. A closer look will be taken at the records of the patients treated by the emergency care team...
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...TermPaperWarehouse.com - Free Term Papers, Essays and Research Documents The Research Paper Factory Join Search Browse Saved Papers Home Page » Business and Management Business of Baseball In: Business and Management Business of Baseball Mgt. 110 Business of Baseball Jordan Core 1. Baseball is full of decisions; every single last pitch is a decision, whether to pitch it high, low, inside, outside. The coach must make the decision of which players to play on certain nights and whether or not to take a pitcher out of the game. I think baseball has the most decisions to be made out of all the “big four” sports. Most decisions in baseball are structured problems, they are easily definable. If a slugger keeps hitting the fastball, it’s time to make the decision of pitching him curveballs away from his hotspot in the strike zone. There is a standardized way of handling almost every type of player and situation. Granted, there may be certain decisions that are unstructured problems and are not faced everyday by the manager such as a star player going down with an injury. The manager must make the decision of how to fill the void left by the injury. If you believe in it, luck can be an unstructured problem as well. In baseball all decision makers are faced with either risk or uncertainty. I don’t believe there is any certainty in any sport. Even the best pitchers have games where they falter so nothing is to be expected. To be the best...
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...D evelopment, Distinguished Research Professor at INSEAD Social Innovation Centre, Boule vard de Constance, 77305 Fontainebleau , France and Anheuser-Busch Professor Emeritus of Man age ment Science and Publi c Pol icy, The Wharton School of the Universi ty of Pennsylvani a Ph: +33 (0) 1 60 72 91 28 Email: paul.kleindorfe r@insead.edu A working paper in the INSEAD Working Paper Series is intended as a means whe reby a faculty researcher's thoughts and findings may be communi ca ted to interested readers. The paper should be considered preliminary in nature and may require re vi sion. Printed at INSEAD, Fontainebleau, France. K indly do not reproduce or circulate without permission. 1 Paper prepared for the UNIDO Project “If industrial energy efficiency pays, why is it no t happening?” Risk Management for EE Projects (V3) 15/3/2010 2 Risk Management for Energy Efficiency Projects in D eveloping Countries Abstract/Summary The present paper addresses risk management fundame ntals for energy efficiency (EE) projects in developing countries. The starting point for th is paper is that there are many profitable EE projects in nearly every industrial enterprise that are simply not implemented. Four problems are often identified as the culprits for failing to harvest such projects: 1) lack of a rational and feasible approach to finance these projects; 2) lac k of a rational internal management approach in the enterprise to package...
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...Governance, Risk and Compliance in Networking Today Strategies ITT Tech Abstract This paper explains how governance, risk and compliance making their way into networking. It shows how these three areas are being affected by how business in more of a global setting. Governance, Risk and Compliance in Networking Today Today’s businesses, especially when looking globally, it is becoming more important to keep up with risk and manage each countries regulatory requirements. This area is fairly new to the Information Technology world. Governance, risk and compliance are new processes and technology that allow these companies to greater manage their risk, accountability and decision making. In this new and growing field, Governance, risk and compliance (GRC), programmers are showing how much they can provide for companies. The problem lies in that even though GRC programmers and making steady advances, in terms of where businesses expectations are, there tend to be gaps. Understanding this is easier when each part is explained more. According to Enzer (2012), to break it down further, governance is the culture, policies, processes, laws, and institutions that define the structure by which companies are directed and managed, risk is the effect of uncertainty on business objectives; risk management is the coordinated activities to direct and control an organization to realize opportunities while managing negative events, and compliance is the act of adhering to, and demonstrating...
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...What are the primary business risks associated with UST inc.? What are the attributes of UST Inc.? Evaluate from the viewpoint of a bondholder. . UST Inc. is a long standing market leader in producing moist smokeless tobacco products. They were a key innovator in the market and have a long standing trusted and recognised brand name. They are known for their conservative debt policy and high dividend payouts. UST has maintained an A-1 credit rating, the highest rating for commercial papers. They have been name as one of the most profitable companies, beating out icons such as Coca-cola and Microsoft. This is due to their premium products, strong brand name, historical pricing flexibility, the continued growth of moist smokeless tobacco market and the high barriers of entry for competitors. In 1998, the financial performance of the company is quite profitable. Comparing against the tobacco industry, UST’s gross profit margin, average return on assets, and return of equity are well above the industry medians. looking at their debt capitalization of around 17% compared to the industry median of 65.7%. They have achieved high return rates with low financial leverage, Over the last ten years, their net sales and gross profit have been at a steady growth due to their premium pricing strategy. They’ve taken an aggressive stance by introducing price increases annually or even bi-annually. But they are getting those results with increasing sales and revenues, which means...
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...Epistemological Reflection in the First Year Experience Course Program Charge The Student Development Division staff subcommittee of ABC Community College has been tasked to present to the Dean of Student Affairs a theory based program to foster student development. The subcommittee proposes a revision to the first year experience course curriculum which will integrate outcomes based on Baxter Magolda’s Model of Epistemological Reflection. Proposed Program Goal and Context Overall, this program is designed to “validate students as knowers, situate learning in the students’ experiences, encourage the processes of jointly constructed knowledge, and facilitate learning relationships that empower students” (Bock, 1999, p. 39). More specifically, the First Year Experience Curriculum Revision will challenge first-year community college students’ assumptions about the nature, limits, and certainty of knowledge (Evans et al., 2010, p. 125). Target Demographic The traditional and nontraditional community college students enrolled in a first year experience course are the target demographic for this program. While the average age of the community college student is twenty nine years old, the students enrolled in the first year experience course will range from new high school graduates to working adults. Program Description The proposed student development initiative will be carried out through curriculum revision of a First Year Experience Course. This course will...
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...Abstract The process of change is becoming an ever-increasing reality within organisations throughout the world. ‘Today there is more change to contend with than ever before. The volume, momentum and complexity of change is accelerating at an ever increasing rate. (Conner. 2002 p38). Transformation outsourcing involves a form of change on a immense scale throughout an entire organization replacing old systems with almost entirely new systems. This kind of change brings potentially great benefits to all organizations involved but it also carries great risks. The first section of this report endeavours to identify the risks associated with such a large scale change in general terms, but also with respect to the specifics considered in the title of this report. The second section concerns itself with the means of mitigating those risks and making preparations to help avoid them. It also considers both the general aspects of change and those specific to the title of this report. Finally the conclusion consists of a concise summary of the main points identified throughout the report. Contents 1. Introduction 2. Identification of risks 2.1 General risks associated with change 2.2 Risks specific to this project 3. Preparation and mitigation of those risks 3.1 Managing risks common to the change process 3.2 Mitigation and preparation for specific risks associated with this project 4. Conclusion 5. Bibliography 1. Introduction Appreciating the scale...
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...Mathematicians have the concept of rigorous proof, which leads to knowing something with complete certainty. Consider the extent to which complete certainty might be achievable in mathematics and at least one another area of knowledge. When we look at it at first mathematics and history seems to be two areas of knowledge where proof leads to absolute certainity on the subject. A large proportion of people believe that in history that if there is an evidence based on a claim , whether big or small, then the claim is true. But the actual thing is if there is a proof based on a claim it gives us an idea about the claim and the rest we will have to figure out with our own perception and reasoning skills. Mathematics is comparatively free of all other ways of knowing other than reasoning. Certainty in mathematics need not always be achieved through proof. Consider the case of axioms. Consider the axiom which suggests that things that are equal to same thing are equal to one another. There is actually no formal proof which backs up this axiom or any other axiom. It is just right under your nose. Although it is said rigorous proof leads to complete certainty in mathematics, as we look more deep into the areas of knowledge the level of uncertainity increases. Proof in mathematics is completely different from proof in history. The definition of proof differs in both the contexts. In mathematics proof, refers to a multitude of theorems and definitions...
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...What is the role of technology? Is the role different than of your view of today’s technology role? How does uncertainty impact your ability to plan for the future work? Predicting the future, or in this case the future of work, has and always will be one of those uncertain tasks that all individuals, managers, entrepreneurs, etc. question and try to determine. Although predicting the future of work is impossible, it doesn’t mean that one can’t reasonably assume what lies ahead. As the videos allude to, research, analyze and be certain in your direction! The technology has morphed throughout history, from ancient civilization techniques to modern computer devices, and one to believe that technology can’t and won’t change in the future will be left behind. Technology will always drive the workplace, regardless of the industry. Without technology, it will be very difficult to nearly impossible to be transparent, flat, competitive, and on demand. Today’s world of technology is a phenomenon in which people can interact, communicate, plan, organize, and manage work from across the globe in mere seconds and at little to no cost. Technology as we know it today may be much different in 2, 5, 10, and even 20 years from now. Innovation drives technology. Today’s role of technology isn’t much different than my view of its role. As a public employee, it has been difficult at times to “keep up” with the latest and greatest technological enhancements available due to budget and work constraints...
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...Tort Risk Prevention through ERM Jaime Rodriguez LAWP/531 May 25, 2013 Gregory Martin Tort Risk Prevention through ERM The business regulation simulation proved to have a variety of potential tort risks in the exercise. Alumina Inc. had the misfortune of being caught with a violation by the EPA and failure to have appropriate measures in place led to the allegations from Kelly Bates. Although the company corrected the problem, it was not clear what steps Alumina Inc. continued to take after the incident occurred. Following the seven steps as defined by Tony Harb would provide Alumina Inc with a structured model to follow and to manage their risk with greater efficiency. Tort Violations The initial violation that Alumina Inc. was found guilty of was having a discharge that was above the standards set by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). With Alumina Inc. being situated in proximity to Lake Dira, they need to have stringent policies in place to ensure that any discharge from their plant would not exceed the maximum amount allowed by the EPA. Failing to maintain this standard has resulted in negligence on their part regardless of whether or not they addressed the problem in a prompt manner. Although the issue was corrected quickly, the damages continued further down the road and exposed the corporation to the potential for lawsuits against...
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...[pic] Internal Assessment Resource Physics Level 3 |This resource supports assessment against: | |Achievement Standard 91521 | |Carry out a practical investigation to test a physics theory relating two variables in a non-linear relationship | |Resource title: Baby bouncer | |4 credits | |This resource: | |Clarifies the requirements of the Standard | |Supports good assessment practice | |Should be subjected to the school’s usual assessment quality assurance process | |Should be modified to make the context relevant to students in their school environment and ensure that submitted | |evidence is authentic | |Date version published by Ministry of |December 2012 ...
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...Mini Assignment 1 1. Harry, Rabie and Varadi took few key decisions in start, to start up their company. Their First Decision was to How to Introduce their product “The Green Buddy” into market, with unique approach they asked Root’s Store to Introduce , as they product matched roots urban approach , as this was a hit, and Order of half a million products was submitted by K-mart in United States. Second Key decision was to simply move the work from Harry’s Kitchen to Small factory where 200 employees were around the clock to meet up with the demand of the product. Looking through Decision environment, these decisions were Non Programmed Decisions by the Managers. First Decision of brand new company introducing a new product, through a urban outfitter store of roots and matching its theme was very unique, it required Intuitive thinking and was non programmed decision is it applied to specific problem of introduction of product to market, not usual approach by any other company. Second Key decision of moving the Operations to factory to cope up with demand of product once it was a hit was also non programmed decision because as this was a new young company it had no routine to cope up with situation of high demands. The environment was risk environment when introducing the product and moving it operations because during these decision owners knew through their alternative, they didn’t have much idea about their alternative but knew outcome could be a problem or successful...
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