...The Role of Policy in the Great Recession and the Weak Recovery John B. Taylor* February 2014 It’s been nearly five years since the recession of 2007-2009 ended. By all accounts, this very severe recession was followed by an extremely disappointing recovery. Economic growth during the recovery has been far too slow to raise the employment-to-population ratio from the low levels to which it fell during the recession, or to close materially the gap between real GDP and potential GDP, in marked contrast to the rapid recovery from the previous severe recession in the early 1980s or from earlier severe recessions in U.S. history. When you include both the periods of the recession and the slow recovery, economic instability has more than tripled according to a common measure of performance used by macroeconomists: The standard deviation of the percentage gap between real GDP and potential GDP rose from 1½ percent during 1984-2006 to 5½ percent during 2007-2012 (Taylor, 2013). In this paper I consider the role of economic policy in this poor economic performance. I. The Shift in Policy In evaluating the role of policy it is important to consider actions taken before, during, and after the financial panic in the fall of 2008. A careful look at the full decade from 5 years before to 5 years after the panic reveals that there was a significant shift in policy away from what worked reasonably well in the decades before. Broadly speaking, monetary policy, regulatory policy, and fiscal policy...
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...NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND THE POLICY RESPONSES: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF WHAT WENT WRONG John B. Taylor Working Paper 14631 http://www.nber.org/papers/w14631 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 January 2009 I am grateful to John Cogan, Angelo Melino, John Murray, George Shultz and participants in the Global Markets Working Group for helpful comments and suggestions. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peerreviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2009 by John B. Taylor. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong John B. Taylor NBER Working Paper No. 14631 January 2009 JEL No. E0,G01 ABSTRACT This paper is an empirical investigation of the role of government actions and interventions in the financial crisis that flared up in August 2007. It integrates and summarizes several ongoing empirical research projects with the aim of learning from past policy. The evidence is presented in a series of charts which are...
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...CORPORATE FINANCE 307 LITERATURE REVIEW Student Name / ID: Chay Yu Xi 15907811 Jacqueline Teo Hui Yun 15805054 Ting Heng Huat 14973837 Tutor: Leo Kee Chye Tutorial Day / Time: Monday / 2pm Table of Contents Abstract The Tech Bubble Introduction Lowering of Interest Rates Adjustable Rate Mortgage Securitization Mortgage Backed Securities Collateralized Debt Obligation Credit Default Swap Government Reaction and Policies Emergency TARP Repercussions Basel Disadvantages Future Policy Requirements Controversy Conclusion Reference List Review of the causes of the 2008 Financial Crisis in US. Abstract This paper seeks to summarize a stream of research that has delved into the major causes of the financial crisis in 2008. More precisely, we will be looking at a combination of causes such as the sub-prime mortgage crisis, the mortgage backed security, the collateralized debt obligation as well as how the incidental credit-default swap contributed to the incident. This paper will begin from analyzing the past, when it happened and how it built up and resulted in the financial crisis. The significance of this literature review seeks to give a simplified explanation of the financial crisis of 2008 and will be useful for the people unversed in economics or finance but wish to have a basic understanding of its causes and history. The Tech Bubble During the early 2000, numerous companies and individuals bought new operating...
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...Introduction Global operations involves the linking and relating of four primary functions; marketing, finance and accounting, suppliers, and human resources to create a competitive advantage in global markets (Russell & Taylor, 2011). The business environment has become increasingly competitive over the past decade, due to the global economic crisis, environmental challenges, technological innovations, as well as, consumer lifestyle changes. As a result of the changes, many multi-national corporations (MNC), in an effort, to remain competitive and sustainable are responding by creating global strategic management plans to address the competitive trends occurring in the market (Kim, Bak, & Bae, 2010). In fact, the aforementioned factors created a rich environment for firms to access new technologies, materials, customer bases, as well as, the ability to form business partnerships, globally (Russell & Taylor, 2011; Nembhard, Shi, & Park, 2000). Consequently, there has been a shift in the way business operations are performed and managed. Procter and Gamble Company (P&G), is an excellent example of an iconic firm maintaining a competitive advantage in global markets through the effective implementation of global operations strategies and management. In fact, P&G is the leading consumer goods firm, generating annually $84 billion in sales, operating in 180+ countries, spanning the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and Asia. In...
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...Current financial crisis Economic growth involves metamorphosis of the financial system. Forms of banks and bank money change. These changes, if not addressed, leave the banking system vulnerable to crisis. There is no greater challenge in economics than to understand and prevent financial crises. The financial crisis of 2007-2008 provides the opportunity to reassess our understanding of crises. All financial crises are at root bank runs, because bank debt—of all forms—is vulnerable to sudden exit by bank debt holders. The current crisis raises issues for crisis theory. And, empirically, studying crises is challenging because of small samples and incomplete data. *Written as a contribution for Trade, Globalization and Development: Essays in Honor of Kalyan Sanyal, edited by Sugata Marjit and Rajat Acharya (Springer Verlag; forthcoming). Some of this essay draws from material in my book Misunderstanding Financial Crises (Oxford University Press; forthcoming November 2012). I worked at AIG Financial Products as a consultant from 1996-2008. I thank Doug Diamond, Bengt Holmström, Arvind Krishnamurthy, and Guillermo Ordoňez for comments.1 1. Introduction Economic development does not result in the elimination of financial crises. The recent financial crisis of 2007-2009 in the United States and Europe shows that market economies, however much they grow and change, are still susceptible to collapse or near-collapse from financial crisis. This is a staggering thought...
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...FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES Macro-Finance Models of Interest Rates and the Economy Glenn D. Rudebusch Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco January 2010 Working Paper 2010-01 http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/papers/2010/wp10-01bk.pdf The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Macro-Finance Models of Interest Rates and the Economy Glenn D. Rudebusch∗ Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Abstract During the past decade, much new research has combined elements of finance, monetary economics, and macroeconomics in order to study the relationship between the term structure of interest rates and the economy. In this survey, I describe three different strands of such interdisciplinary macro-finance term structure research. The first adds macroeconomic variables and structure to a canonical arbitrage-free finance representation of the yield curve. The second examines bond pricing and bond risk premiums in a canonical macroeconomic dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The third develops a new class of arbitrage-free term structure models that are empirically tractable and well suited to macro-finance investigations. This article is based on a keynote lecture to the 41st annual conference of the Money, Macro, and Finance Research Group...
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...MOTIVATION IN ECONOMIC CRISIS: THE FLEXIBLE BENEFITS SCHEMES BY Mai Ngoc Nguyen 1215894 An assignment submitted in partial fulfillment of the assessment for the New Advances in Business (12-13TYAABSS007-3) unit March 2013 * Contents Contents 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 LIST OF FIGURES 3 LIST OF TABLES 3 1 Introduction 4 2 Literature review 6 3 The economic crisis and the transition in methods of motivation: The need for an innovate benefits package 9 3.1 Impacts of the economic crisis on employees and employers 9 3.2 The transition in methods of motivation: The need for an innovative benefits package 12 3.3 The traditional benefits package and its motivating effectiveness 14 4 The flexible approach to benefits provision in a gloomy economy 16 4.1 Effectiveness of the flexible benefits schemes in motivation 17 4.2 Factors affecting the motivating effectiveness of the flexible benefits schemes 18 4.3 Current issues influencing the adoption of the flexible benefits schemes 20 5 Conclusion 21 APPENDIX - Changes in the British WorkForce 22 REFERENCES 23 FURTHER READING 27 * EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In recent years, in the UK, both employees and employers have to bear negative impacts from the recession, especially employees with their financial difficulties and diverse needs. It is more important than ever for motivation. However, employee motivation is getting harder and harder in the face of economic crisis. In times of gloomy pay...
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...International Financial Markets: What Can History Teach Us?* Michael D. Bordo Rutgers University and NBER Paper prepared for the conference “International Financial Markets: The Challenge of Globalization.” March 31, 2000. Texas A and M University, College Station Texas. * For valuable research assistance, I thank Antu Murshid. 1. Introduction Globalization has become the buzz word of the new millennium. It is viewed as the cause of many of the world’s problems as well as a panacea. The debate over globalization is manifest both in public demonstrations against the WTO in Seattle in the Fall of 1999 and the IMF and World Bank earlier. It also has led to a spate of scholarly and not so scholarly books on the subject.1 Until three years ago the consensus view among economists on the issue of the international integration of financial markets was very positive. The benefits of open capital markets stressed include: optimal international resource allocation; intertemporal optimization; international portfolio diversification and discipline on policy makers.2. However, the recent spate of crises in Latin America and Asia has led some to argue that the costs of complete liberalization of financial markets for emerging countries may outweigh the benefits.3 The paper focuses on the globalization of financial markets from the historical perspective of the past 120 years. In Section 2, I summarize the empirical evidence on the international integration of financial markets from 1880...
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...to discuss the issue of employee motivation and rewards, and recommend how a company can successfully motivate its employees and achieve high performance levels similar to Google Australia. Diverse methods/techniques and reward programs are used for successful employee motivation and the effectiveness of these are examined in this report. This report examines the two main arguments comprising extrinsic and intrinsic methods regarding effective employee motivation and job satisfaction and correlating it with high levels of work performance from employees. The arguments of extrinsic rewards for work achieving higher levels of motivation are stated by Victor H. Vroom’s Expectancy theory (1964). It is and also reinforced by Frederick Winslow Taylor Theory which claims employees are primarily motivated by pay. This is contrary to that of Frederick Herzberg’s Two-factor theory (also known as Motivator-Hygiene Theory) , which argues that intrinsic factors such as recognition increase motivation and job satisfaction, against that of extrinsic factors. Therefore in this report it is imperative to identify the most effective scheme in which employees achieve high levels of motivation and performance on a long term and consistent basis for a company. 2.0 - Problem Identification Google Australia Management has been able to effectively achieve success with their unique rewards scheme and sociable work environment. However a potential problem could occur if their methods were to wear off...
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...2012 Instructor: Dr. Ben Thompson Tracy Moore MBA 6022 2237 Gateway Blvd Baltimore, MD 21202 Abstract: Toyota is faced with an Accelerator crisis after allegedly faulty accelerator pedals in some of their vehicles caused the pedals to depress get stuck or cause them to accelerate. This lead to a massive recall and lead to penalties and fines from the US government and consumer confidence diminished. There are several processes that can be identified that will benefit Toyota and lead to improvement which is what will be discussed in this paper. Toyota Motor Corporation was founded by Kiichiro Toyoda. Its headquarters is in Japan and was established in 1933. According to by Greto, Schotter, and Teagarden (2010), “In 1934, the company produced its first Type A engine at the encouragement of the Japanese government, and two years later the company produced its first passenger car, the Toyota AA” (p. 2). After going through financial turmoil the 1950’s but helped out by the US government for the war effort in Korea, Toyota started a subsidiary in the US in 1957. In 1982 Toyota formed a joint venture with General Motors in the US at a plant in California. In 2009, a new president was named a Toyota, Akio Toyoda who was a member of the founding family. Akio Toyoda was at the helm of the company when the Toyota accelerator crisis hit and had to answer to a question and answer session before the US House of Representatives. Mr. Toyoda is not responsible for process improvement...
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...largest like its competitors Citigroup; which is one of the world’s mammoth banks and Bank of America; which is the largest is the United States of America. Team C research provides an explanation using central tendency methods preferably descriptive statistical method. This paper seeks to discuss the definition of the selection using quantifiable measures; discuss the steps of the business research, addressing the problem definition; the research hypothesis; the variables to be tested will be identified as well as the level of measurement and the measurement scale for each variable. According to John B. Taylor in November 2008, which states that, “the empirical research he presents in his paper strongly suggests that specific government actions and interventions should be first on the list of answers to all three questions that he posed, which were; What caused the financial crisis? What prolonged it? Why did it worsen so dramatically more than a year after it began?” Problem Definition Century National Bank is looking to gain business and determine how they can entice their current customers to take part in more of the banks alternate services. This particular bank has many accounts open and many different services available to the customers who take advantages of the services. Our main research question will be if by getting the consumer to increase the numbers of services at the bank...
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...Quantitative Easing: Entrance and Exit Strategies by Alan S. Blinder, Princeton University CEPS Working Paper No. 204 March 2010 Acknowledgements: Paper prepared for the Homer Jones Memorial Lecture at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, April 1, 2010. I am grateful to Gauti Eggertsson, Todd Keister, Jamie McAndrews, Paul Mizen, John Taylor, Alexander Wolman, and Michael Woodford for extremely useful comments on an earlier draft, and to Princeton’s Center for Economic Policy Studies for research support. Apparently, it can happen here. On December 16, 2008, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), in an effort to fight what was shaping up to be the worst recession since 1937, reduced the federal funds rate to nearly zero. 1 From then on, with all of its conventional ammunition spent, the Federal Reserve was squarely in the brave new world of quantitative easing. Chairman Ben Bernanke tried to call the Fed’s new policies “credit easing,” probably to differentiate them from what the Bank of Japan had done earlier in the decade, but the label did not stick. 2 Roughly speaking, quantitative easing refers to changes in the composition and/or size of the central bank’s balance sheet that are designed to ease liquidity and/or credit conditions. Presumably, reversing these policies constitutes “quantitative tightening,” but nobody seems to use that terminology. The discussion refers instead to the “exit strategy,” indicating that quantitative easing (“QE”) is looked upon as...
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...| Research Paper Prospectus | Economics Capstone | 02/12/2012 | Since the U.S. banking crisis of 2007, more than 280 banks in the United States have failed and presently continue to do so. With the closures of these banks, jobs were lost; and the economy has suffered greatly. The banking crisis of 2007 has been considered the largest since the Great Depression. Many researchers, policymakers, economists, and other individuals blame the subprime mortgage market and its collapse for triggering the U.S crisis; many also wonder how such a relatively small market as subprime could cause so much trouble around in the U.S, especially financial institutions that did not get involved with subprime lending or with investment in subprime securities. This paper analyzes financial and economic circumstances associated with the United States financial turmoil that has led to the banking crisis. Section 1 analyzes the collapse of the subprime mortgage market in the United States and outlines factors associated with it. Section 2 outlines the economic factors that led to the banking crisis in 2007. Section 3 summarizes suggestions of research about how to remedy the current crisis and possibly avoid crises in the future. Section 4 will discuss the conclusion of the research. The first signs of the subprime mortgage market collapse in the United States were very high and unusual even for subprime market delinquency and foreclosure rates for mortgages originated in 2006 and 2007. Reinhart...
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...since the relationship of workers & owners first developed and these problems are likely to exist in the future as well. This has been a common subject for research by many theorist such as: Fredrick Taylor, Abraham Maslow, Douglas McGregor, Frederick Hertzberg, Karl Marx and Harry Braverman. I will discuss the critical and mainstream theories around the topic of worker motivation and then give examples to link them to current times, this will then lead to a conclusion supported by facts and theories. The main stream theorist I would like to draw upon first is Fredrick Taylor and his theory of scientific management. He linked productivity with economic reward and put forward the concept that worker are motivated primarily through pay or ''economic reward''. This concept of Fredrick has been accepted by management all over the world and still holds true for many business where productivity is linked to sales and then to economic rewards. [ (Locke, 1982, pp. 14-24) ]. Mayo conducted experiments between 1927 and 1937, that later came to be known as hawthorn experiments and came to the conclusion that physical, economic and social environment can effect workers productivity. These experiments were criticized by a number of theorist including Alex Cary, in the ''American sociological review (1976)'', and as such I won't be using them extensively for this essay. Abraham Maslow on the other hand came up with a more general approach to motivation, his theory came to be known as the 'hierarchy...
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...The Mortgage and Financial Crises: The Role of Credit Risk Management and Corporate Governance William W. Lang Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Ten Independence Mall, Philadelphia, PA 19106 Phone: 215-574-7225 E-mail: William.Lang@phil.frb.org Julapa Jagtiani Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Ten Independence Mall, Philadelphia, PA 19106 Phone: 215-574-7284 E-mail: Julapa.Jagtiani@phil.frb.org February 9, 2010 Abstract This paper discusses the role of risk management and corporate governance as causal factors in the onset of the financial crisis. The downturn in the housing and mortgage markets precipitated the first phase of the financial crisis in August 2007 when the solvency of a number of large financial firms was threatened by huge losses in complex structured financial securities. Why did these firms have such high concentrations in mortgage-related securities? Given the information available to firms at the time, these high concentrations in mortgage-related securities violated basic principles of modern risk management. We argue that this failure was a result of principal-agent problems internal to the firms and to breakdowns of corporate governance systems designed to overcome these principal-agent problems. Forthcoming in Atlantic Economic Journal (2010) JEL Classification Numbers: G01, G18, G21, G28 Keywords: Financial Crisis, Risk Management, Corporate Governance, Subprime Crisis _________________________ The opinions expressed in this paper...
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