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Bric Russia

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Submitted By tmurphy00
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Tiffany M.
International Business
BRIC – Russia

Question 1
What are the current economic indicators for the assigned country that clearly demonstrate that this country is on a consistent growth path and that this will play an important role in the 21st century world economy?

The financial crisis of 2008, lead to a deep recession in Russia in 2009 due to a severe decline in oil prices. “The GDP fell by 7.8 percent and the number of unemployed increased from 4 million in the summer of 2008 to 7 million (or 9.3 percent) at the beginning of 2010. Between October and December 2008, production experienced its worst drop in the history of Russia, plummeting by a record 19 percent. The official inflation rate, which reached over 14 percent in 2008, remains high at 6.1 percent.” (Weiss, 2012) Russia was hit hard by this economic crisis, however although recovery was slower than the other BRIC countries, Russia is showing much potential for further growth.

Because of supply constraints, the price of Urals oil has gone past $125 USD per barrel for the first time since 2008. The high oil prices have bolstered Russia’s economy in the form of large export revenues, active fiscal revenues, and a rising stock market. “…The Central Bank of Russia has added to its stock of foreign reserves, unemployment has returned to its pre-crisis levels of around 6.5 percent, and wages have grown at double-digit rates in early 2012. In February 2012, headline inflation was 3.8 percent, which is the lowest level for the last two decades. In 2011, inequality has declined, and consumption levels of poorer people have improved. The fiscal balance has returned to a surplus. And while the average public debt level in the advanced economies exceeded 100 percent of their GDP; Russia’s public debt was about 10 percent of GDP.” (World Bank, 2012)

The world seems to be taking notice of Russia’s recent consistent economic growth. The international financial conglomerate Citigroup is showing great faith in the Russian economy by encouraging investors to buy European stocks with sales in Russia. Citigroup believes that Russia’s economic growth will outperform other “debt-stricken” European nations, branding it the “Potential Savior of Europe”. "The point is that Russia has growth while Europe is facing stagnation," said Kingsmill Bond, chief strategist at Citigroup in Moscow "A lot of the growth that European companies will generate will be from their Russian operations." (Bloomberg, 2012) According to Citigroup’s report, Russia has the highest level of estimated economic growth, along with the lowest levels of debt compared to other major European countries.

Russia’s growth potential isn’t just tied into the oil market; major strides are being made in the field of information technology. Three students from St. Petersburg State University of Information Technology, Mechanics & Optics beat out more than 100 teams from the world’s best universities at the Battle of the Brains programming competition held in Warsaw. This was the third win for the school in five years. “This is not only an astounding achievement but indicative of Russia's great potential on the global stage beyond natural resources. While China is a global leader in manufacturing, and India in the export of services, Russia's hi-tech skills are creating an opportunity for it to become an innovation powerhouse.” (Korniliev, 2012) Past Battle of the Brains winners from St. Petersburg State University have gone on to establish some very successful innovative business ventures such as: Yota – a maker of 4G mobile internet devices, Vkontakte.ru – one of Russia’s most popular social networking sites, and Kaspersky Labs – a globally known computer security firm.

IBM, a multinational technology corporation, in recognition of the vast potential for growth, has announced plans for a “major program of geographic expansion” to double its presence in Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States region this year. IBM is working in tandem with the Skolkovo Foundation – “a non-profit organization established by the Russian Government to accelerate the transformation of Russia from a resource-based to an innovation-based economy.” (Korniliev, 2012) Together they will work towards developing a system to evaluate and identify technology with the potential for high commercial value. It is clear that IBM has great faith in Russia’s potential for innovation based economic growth.

References

Bloomberg (2012). Citibank favors sales in Russia. Retrieved from http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/citibank-favors-sales-in-russia/461960.html. [Last Accessed 11 July 12].

Busvine, D. (2012). Russian lawmakers ratify WTO entry. Retrieved from http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/10/us-russia-wto-vote-idUSBRE8690SF20120710. [Last Accessed 11 July 12].

Korniliev, K. (2012). Innovation propels Russia's economic growth -- and not just in Moscow. Retrieved from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kirill-korniliev/ibm-innovation-propels-russia_b_1627264.html. [Last Accessed 11 July 12].

Weiss, C. (2012). Economic crisis in Russia deepens. Retrieved from http://www.wsws.org/articles/2012/feb2012/russ-f22.shtml. [Last Accessed 11 July 12].

World Bank (2012). Russian economic report 27: Moderating risks, bolstering growth. Retrieved from http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/2012/03/27/russian-economic-report-27. [Last Accessed 11 July 12].

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