SOUTH AFRICAN NATIONAL DEFENCE COLLEGE

THABA TSHWANE

THE CAUSES AND DYNAMICS OF CONFLICT IN CENTRAL AFRICA

By

Ms C. Auret

November 2009

This research paper was written by a programme member attending the South African National Defence College in fulfilment of one of the requirements of the Executive National Security Programme 20/09. The paper is a scholastic document and this contains facts and opinions which the author alone considered appropriate and correct for subject. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of any agency, including the South African Government or Department of Defence. This paper may not be released, quoted or copied except with the express permission of the Department of Defence.

INDEX

|HEADING |PAGE |
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|Abstract……………………………………………………………………………… |3 |
|Introduction………………………………………………………………………….. |3 |
|Historical Review of Conflict in Central Africa ……………………………...…….. |5 |
|Definition of Conflict……………………………………………………………….. |5 |
|Conflict in Central Africa…………………………………………………………… |6 |
|Overview of Conflict in Chad………………………………………………………. |7 |
|Overview of Conflict in DRC………………………………………………………. |9 |
|Overview of Conflict in Rwanda…………………………………………………… |10 |
|Causes of Conflict in Central Africa………………………..………………………. |12 |
| Culture and Ethnicity…………………………………………………………. |13 |
| Socio Economic and Political Conditions…………………………………….. |14 |
| Natural Resources…………………………………………………………….. |14 |
| Poor Governance……………………………………………………………… |15 |
| Proliferation and Small Arms…………………………………………………. |15 |
| Refugees and Migration………………………………………………………. |17 |
|Impact of the Conflict in Central Africa…………………………………………….. |18 |
| Economic Situation…………………………………………………………… |18 |
| Refugees and Displacement of People…………..…………………………… |19 |
| Social …………………………………………………………………………. |21 |
|Conflict Resolution Mechanisms……………………………………………………. |21 |
| Rwanda………………………………………………………………………... |22 |
| DRC…………………………………………………………………………… |23 |
| Chad…………………………………………………………………………… |26 |
|Conclusion………………………………………………………………………….. |27 |
|Declaration of Authenticity……………...………………………………………….. |29 |
|References…………………………………………………………………………… |30 |
|Appendix A |A |

THE CAUSES AND DYNAMICS OF CONFLICT IN CENTRAL AFRICA

By

Ms C. Auret

ABSTRACT

Central Africa is an extremely weak and volatile region in the globalising world system. The ongoing proliferation of conflict continues to undermine development, the safety and security of individuals and states, as well as good governance in Africa. This is acutely apparent in Central Africa, where since the advent of colonialism, citizens have been suffered varying degrees of conflict. The majority of countries in Central Africa experienced low rates of human development All these conflicts has led to hundreds of thousands of deaths, the displacement of millions of civilians and the collapse of basic infrastructure and social services. Yet, given the propensity for instability in Central African states, the substantial reduction in armed conflict, autocratic regimes, political discrimination and political instability charted over the past several years are encouraging. Proactive international engagement, particularly by governments, is and will remain crucial over the long term (ten to twenty five years) in helping countries to manage social tensions and stimulate the development of self-regulating civil societies. This document analyses the conflict and dynamics of three Central African states: DRC, Rwanda and Chad and the effectiveness of the conflict resolution mechanisms utilised in these countries, as a case study. This is particularly important given the increasing challenges that many other African countries are facing.

INTRODUCTION

Since the 1970’s the upsurge of political freedom in the developing African States coupled with the collapse of Soviet and Eastern European communism has produced history's greatest advance towards democracy in Africa. So great has this upsurge been that some academics, such as Huntington, termed the increase of democratic expansion as the “third wave of democratisation”.[i] But the democratisation of Africa was not an easy transition and only in small number of cases did democracy take hold. In sub-Saharan Africa single-party systems were established in many new nations (including Tanzania, Senegal, Guinea), often to be followed by military dictatorships (Nigeria, Liberia) or absolute, one-man rule (Uganda and Central Africa Republic).[ii]

After being under foreign rule for decades, newly independent governments often lacked governmental institutions, good governance skills, and the governing experience needed to effectively rule their newly sovereign nations. Democratic transition in Africa also did not always bring with it freedom from colonialist influences. Colonial legacies were visible in the desire of the new governments to keep the boundaries that were created during colonial times, in the promotion of ethnic rivalry, in the continuation of inhumane and unjust actions against minority populations, and in the practice of distributing the country's resources in an uneven manner.

The greatest threats to these developing democracies within Africa are socio-economic problems like poverty, unemployment, poor education, the lack of housing and the absence of adequate social services, as well as a high level of crime and violence. As most of these threats are internal to the state, the vast majority of armed conflicts in Africa are taking place within, rather than between, states. Because of the ethnic nature of most of these conflicts, such conflicts are increasingly being regarded as regional concerns due to the danger of these spilling-over into neighbouring countries and regions.

Wars produce the worst violations of human rights worldwide and are the greatest impediment to human development. Most of the more than 50 major armed conflicts on the African continent since the Cold War have been internal clashes over religion, national or ethnic identity, and/or access to natural resources or wealth. George Simmel, perhaps the first modern sociologist to write about conflict and states that people are naturally aggressive, conflictual creatures. Thus conflict exists within each of us; it is present in the dealings of any two persons whose interests or relations are interdependent or opposed.[iii]

Coinciding with the end of the Cold War and declining strategic interest of the West, the conflicts in Central Africa did not receive the necessary attention from the international community. With the United Nations (UN) and the only remaining world power, the United States along with any of its Western allies or former colonialists failing to intervene to stop the carnage, there was a clear need to institutionalize African mechanisms for the prevention, management and resolution of conflict in Africa.

This paper aims to analyse the causes and dynamics of conflict in Central Africa as well as the effectiveness of the conflict resolution mechanisms put in place as preventative measurements in order to determine if these structures are successful to sustain peace and stability in the conflict ridden Central African states. This research aims to educate policy makers, donor organisations, civil societies etc involved with conflict resolutions, on the complexity of the causes of conflict and the management thereof in an African context.

This paper will analyse the causes and dynamics of conflict within Central Africa, with specific reference to Democratic Republic of Congo, Chad, and Rwanda as case studies, as well as the impact of these conflict situations on National and Regional Security. The various international and regional conflict mechanisms deployed will be examined to determine their effectiveness to sustain peace and ensure stability in the affected regions. It will be concluded with a synopsis of the findings of this research.

HISTORICAL REVIEW OF CONFLICT IN CENTRAL AFRICA

[pic] [pic]

Map 1: Countries within Central African Region

DEFINITION OF CONFLICT

Conflict as a concept is as old as humanity itself. At its basis conflict is the resultant consequence of the clash of interests or will between two individuals, parties or states. Conflict is the consequence of a disparity in the interest or values of two parties. There are such a variety of definitions of conflict that have emerged over the years, for the purpose of this paper the following definition will be used: “Conflict occurs when two related parties – individual groups, communities or nation-states - find themselves divided by perceived incompatible interests or goals or in competition for control of scarce resources.”[iv]

With this definition Avruch explicitly bridges the gap between two approaches in understanding conflict: one based on the idea of scarcity and to other related to perception / belief. Conflict is not static, time-bound events, but rather an ongoing processes that vary in intensity, scope and duration. at individual, community, national or international level.

CONFLICT IN CENTRAL AFRICA

In Africa the problem of violent conflict unleashed by warlords, massive proliferation of small arms, cross-border crimes and banditry is compounded by endemic poverty, unemployment and collapse of social and economic infrastructures.[v] As a consequence of most African democracies being formed out of intense internal turmoil, the majority of emerging African governments are faced with severe financial constraints, usually integrating a large numbers of armed factions and weak or non-existent government structures that cannot connect with the full extent of the state’s population. Entrenched corruption, lack of accountability and poor governance provided structural factors for the foundation of a security dilemma in emerging democracies within Africa.

Map 2: Deaths in African Countries
|[pic] | |
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| |Up to 99,999 estimated deaths (Chad) |
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| |100,000 - 999,999 estimated deaths (Rwanda) |
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| |Over 1,000,000 deaths (DRC) |
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To analyse the dynamics of the conflict within Central Africa it will be necessary to briefly review the historical background of the conflict within this region. As Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda will be scrutinised as case studies, the overview will be limited to these three countries. Map 2 indicates the total op deaths within Chad and DRC, Rwanda as a result of conflict.

[pic]

Map 3: Conflict types

Map 3 indicates the types (major / minor and other) in Africa with specific reference to Chad, Rwanda and DRC.

OVERVIEW ON CONFLICT IN CHAD

Chad, part of France's African holdings until 1960, endured three decades of civil warfare as well as invasions by Libya before a semblance of peace was finally restored in 1990. The government eventually drafted a democratic constitution, and held flawed presidential elections in 1996. Power remains in the hands of an ethnic minority (which is one of many conflict drivers). In 1998, a rebellion broke out in northern Chad, which has sporadically flared up despite several peace agreements between the government and the rebels. In 2005, new rebel groups emerged in western Sudan and made probing attacks into eastern Chad, despite signing peace agreements in December 2006 and October 2007. In June 2005 President Idriss Deby held a referendum successfully removing constitutional term limits and won another controversial election in 2006. Sporadic rebel campaigns continued throughout 2006 and 2007, and the capital experienced a significant rebel threat in early 2008.[vi]

The conflicts in Chad and Sudan involve a number of elements. The current conflict in eastern Chad is not simply an extension of the Darfur civil war but this conflict is inextricably linked to the bloody civil war currently raging in the Darfur region of neighbouring Sudan, (a further conflict driver-proxy war) forcing thousands to flee to neighbouring states to avoid the violence. The Chad government accuses the Sudan-backed Arab Janjaweed militia of attacking some of the 200,000 refugees that came to eastern Chad from Darfur.

Chad also accuses Khartoum of backing a coalition of armed rebels in Chad. These attacks raised communal tensions in eastern Chad, which has a similar ethnic make-up to Darfur. Sudan denies all the charges of being involved in the Chad conflict. In return, Sudan accuses Chad of backing Darfur's National Redemption Front rebels as they carry out cross-border raids [vii] and also the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM).

Also, the region's resources, especially its oil reserves, are seen as ripe for exploitation by Western and more recently Chinese companies. The oil fields indicated on Map 3 are rich sources of profits for multinationals and the local elites, at the expense of the impoverished local population. (An oil pipeline running from Chad, through Cameroon, to the Atlantic coast was completed in 2003, despite protests). Finally, the conflict also involves the unscrupulous regimes, and their warlord proxy militias in both Chad and Sudan, to protect their own political powers.

[pic] [pic]

President of Chad, Lieutenant General Idriss Déby Map of Chad with Neighboring Countries

OVERVIEW ON CONFLICT IN DEMONCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

The main cause of the conflict in the DRC is the contest over the country’s natural resources.[viii] Underlying political agendas exacerbate the conflict. Col. Joseph Mobutu seized power and declared himself president in a November 1965 coup. Mobutu retained his position for 32 years through several sham elections, as well as through the use of brutal force. A resistance to power transfer infringes on the formation of a democratic state. President Kabila took over and clung to power in order to control the country’s resources mainly for private wealth. This stifled the political ambition of the population, leading to anger and resentment. The global quest for energy, security and mineral resources further adds to this conflict. A cease-fire was signed in July 1999 by the DRC, Congolese armed rebel groups, Angola, Namibia, Rwanda, Uganda, and Zimbabwe but sporadic fighting continued (Map 5).

[pic]

The population of the D.R.C. was estimated at 66 million in 2008. As many as 250 ethnic groups have been distinguished and named. Some of the larger groups are the Kongo, Luba, and Anamongo.[ix] The political, economic and social inequalities between the various ethnic groups and greed led to the resource wars. This also leads to inter-ethnic violence, which is manipulated by political leaders to fuel the conflict for personal gain.

Although the country’s civil war officially ended in 2002, fighting has continued in parts of eastern DRC. Most recently fighting has involved a Tutsi-led rebel movement. Large areas of territory are also controlled by Rwandan Hutu guerrillas, whom government forces have failed to disarm.[x]

Laurent Kabila was assassinated in January 2001 and his son, Joseph Kabila, was named head of state. In October 2002, the new president was successful in negotiating the withdrawal of Rwandan forces occupying eastern Congo; two months later, the Pretoria Accord was signed by all remaining warring parties to end the fighting and establish a government of national unity. A transitional government was set up in July 2003 which held a successful constitutional referendum in December 2005 and elections in 2006. But despite all the agreements the eastern borders areas of the DRC is still prevalent to rebel attacks, and UN peace support operations, in conjunction with the FARDC, is currently trying to bring peace and stability to the region.

[pic] [pic] President Joseph Kabila Map of DRC with Neighboring Countries

OVERVIEW ON CONFLICT IN RWANDA

In 1959, three years before independence from Belgium, the majority ethnic group, the Hutus, overthrew the ruling Tutsi king. Over the next several years, thousands of Tutsis were killed, and some 150,000 driven into exile in neighbouring countries. The exiles later formed the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), and began a civil war in 1990. The war, along with several political and economic upheavals, exacerbated ethnic tensions.

In 1994 President Habyarimana was taking steps to ensure the implementation of a peace accord, but on 6 April 1994his plane was shot down. This act triggered Hutu extremists, focused on retaining control of Rwanda, to set in motion one hundred days of horror that decimated the Tutsi population.[xi] In the summer of 1994 Rwanda became the venue of the one the biggest tragedies of the 20th century with the genocide of over 800,000 Tutsis.

[pic]

The Tutsi rebels defeated the Hutu regime and ended the killing in July 1994, but approximately 2 million Hutu refugees, many fearing Tutsi retribution, fled to neighbouring Burundi, Tanzania, Uganda, and the DRC.

At least a hundred times smaller than the DRC, but militarily stronger and with a more functional state, Rwanda has been a thorn in the DRC’s side for 14 years. Rwandan troops has been present in the DRC from the mid-1994’s till 2003, having crossed the border in pursuit of the Hutu militia (Interahamwe), which fled Rwanda when the current Tutsi-led government seized power.

The Rwandan government feels threatened by the continued presence of the Interahamwe in eastern DRC (now reconstituted as the FDLR). The DRC government promised in late 2007 to eject the FDLR from its territory, but the militia is entrenched in eastern DRC and neither the Congolese armed forces nor MONUC have been able to dislodge them.[xii]

[pic] [pic]

CAUSES OF CONFLICT IN CENTRAL AFRICA

The greatest threats to the security to the developing democracies within Africa are socio-economic problems like ethnicity, poverty, unemployment, poor education, the lack of housing and the absence of adequate social services, as well as a high level of crime and violence. According to the 2006 Senate Report on the Genocide Ideology and Strategies of its Eradication, the following are the most outstanding causes of conflict and hence violence in post genocide Rwanda:[xiii]

• Ethnic ideology

• Poverty

• Gacaca Court related issues

• Land/ habitat issues

• Religious ideology

• HIV/AIDS pandemic

These factors are all underlaying factors to conflict in Africa, and as such will be investigated as possible causes for the conflict in Central Africa.

The following graph (Graph 1) splits conflicts into the three categories of war mentioned before. As one can see, civil wars are by far the most common kind[xiv]
[pic]
Graph 1: Conflicts (Inter / inter and intrastate)

CULTURE AND ETHNICITY

Many authors, such as, Vamik Volkan argue that the root causes of many protracted conflicts are the result of ethnicity. He states, that at the ‘root of many conflicts are bloodlines’. The argument of ethnicity causing conflict is normally divided into two different theories: constructivism and primordialism. Violence often develops between ethnic groups when one group feels threatened or harmed by the other, usually as a result of some inequality or perception of inequality.[xv]

There are, by some counts, up to 250 ethnic groups in the Great Lakes region (including eastern parts of DRC and Rwanda), but the five main ethnic groups are the; Hutus, Tutsis, Hema, Lendu and Banyamulenge. Ethnic conflict is endemic in several parts of the DRC between the Hema and Lendu around Bunia in Orientale province, between Congolese Tutsis (Banyamulenge) and other groups in the Kivus, and between the Baluba of Kasai and the Lunda of Katanga.[xvi]

In 1996 the governor of Kivu Province in the DRC (the Zaire) asked the Banyamulenge or ethnic Tutsis of the Mulenge Mountains in Eastern DRC to return to Rwanda, despite the fact that that they have been living in the DRC for about two centuries. This request fired up the emotions which led to an uprising of the Tutsis and their alliances against the DRC government.

The Rwandan genocide of over 800,000 Tutsis came as the result of historic and modern inequalities between the Hutu majority and the Tutsi minority. The institutionalisation of Hutu and Tutsi as distinct people introduced for the first time the idea of race. Moreover, the colonialists developed the so-called Hamitic hypothesis which held that the Tutsi and everything humanly superior in Central Africa came from ancient Egypt or Abyssinia. Because of the solidification of identity as the main determinant of access and power and because the Tutsis were seen as more European, they became the privileged minority in a nation that was becoming more stratified. What evolved in Rwanda was the development of two distinct identities. By the end of the colonial era, Rwanda was a nation defined by identity. The Hutu saw the Tutsis as oppressors and foreigners, a distinction that would play a huge role in post-colonial Rwanda.[xvii]

The DRC held its first free elections for more than 40 years in 2006. The elections were won by the incumbent president, Joseph Kabila, and the multiparty alliance he heads, Alliance pour la majorité présidentielle (AMP). Although the country’s civil war officially ended in 2002, fighting has continued in parts of eastern DRC. Most recently fighting has involved a Tutsi-led rebel movement. Large areas of territory are also controlled by Rwandan Hutu guerrillas, whom government forces have failed to disarm.[xviii]

SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND SOCIO-POLITICAL CONDITIONS

In its most basic form conflict is based on a clash of interests, whether resources or economics Ostby (2006) establishes a relationship between conflict and severe socio-economic horizontal inequalities. The argument that income disparity between people and groups creates violent conflict can be included in the larger idea of the dissolution of the social contract. Tony Addison and S. Mansoob Murshed argue that conflict can be viewed as a partial or complete breakdown of the social contract. [xix]. In the cases of Burundi and Rwanda minority groups were categorised as superior and used by their colonial masters to dominate and rule over the majority granting onto them the power to subjugate the majority. These categorisations became, over time, entrenched social formations that prevail till today and account for the protracted nature of conflict within the socio-political landscape.

NATURAL RESOURCES

Due to the immense natural resources in Africa, including the DRC and Chad, various foreign powers, as well as internal, have sought to gain an advantage. There are many resources and minerals being exploited, including (but not limited to) diamonds, coltan, cassiterite, tin, copper and timber in the DRC, and oil reserves in Chad. The over population and very little resources is also a conflict driver in Burundi and Rwanda.

Natural resources not only motivated, but in some cases financed conflicts, and shaped strategies of power based on the commercialisation of armed conflict and the territorialisation of sovereignty around valuable resource areas and trading networks. Although the conflict was about the natural resources, the underlying problem was the inability of the government to handle crucial issues such as equitable distribution of resources, management of the resources and corruption at leadership level.

Africa’s rich resources provide easy ways to finance these conflicts and various rebel groups had long been successful in setting up financial administrative bodies in their controlled areas. The conflict and wars in the DRC is the struggle for the control over the mineral-rich mines in the Kisangani area between the forces of Uganda and Rwanda. Throughout the 1990s, many of the rebel leaders of the armed groups have bought small arms to fight for control over these mineral-rich mines in Kisangani.

POOR GOVERNANCE

African Development Bank (ADB) Vice President for Operations, Dr. Zeinab E. Bakri, said that “Africa’s major problem as well as its continued economic failure is the absence of good governance”. [xx] Good governance is the quality of government with regards to the effective management of a country’s economic and social resources.

Corruption is defined by instances of abuse of entrusted power for private gain, governance embodies the traditions and institutions by which authority in a country is exercised for the common good. Compared to corruption, the scope of the concept of governance is generally broader, spanning issues of public policy and decision-making, transparency and access to information, enhancing state performance, and matters relating to social justice, rights and the rule of law.

In the past decade, many underdeveloped African states have experimented with various forms of democracy. Being divided along tribal, cultural, religious, and ethnic lines, and having different perspectives than the rest of the world’s developing states, developing African countries tend to evolve unique political systems. Many post-colonial leaders created single-party systems, banning or restricting opposition political parties. They often argued that ethnic (tribal) tensions in their country made elections too risky since they would prompt different political parties to represent contending tribes, further polarizing the country.

In September 2006, rebel activity in the northwestern and northeastern part of the country intensified, resulting in the government losing control over parts of its territory. The subsequent fighting between government troops and rebels displaced nearly 300,000 citizens. In January 2007, the Libyan Government brokered a peace agreement between the government and the rebel groups

PROLIFERATION OF SMALL ARMS

According to available statistics, out of the estimated 500 million small arms and light weapons in circulation world-wide, 100 million are found in Africa.[xxi] Because these weapons are easy to use, conceal and maintain, they have been the weapons of choice in many of the conflicts in Africa, particularly those involving non-state actors. Their widespread availability has contributed to massive violations of human rights and international humanitarian law, to the development of a culture of violence that has destroyed the social fabric of the countries, as well as to the development of the phenomenon of child soldiers. Small arms and light weapons have undermined efforts at economic development, good governance and democratization as well as peace efforts and negotiations. Although by themselves these weapons do not cause conflicts, their widespread availability increases the likelihood of conflict.

[pic] [pic]
Pictures of Children involved in Armed Conflicts

All activities by various armed groups in these conflicts depended on a steady supplies of arms and other military equipment. According to an UN report, “The call for tough arms controls from the DRC,”[xxii] the 1998 tensions that led to the second Congolese war resulted into a five-year period during which small arms and light weapons poured into the country because all sides were bent on gaining power. Despite many of the warring parties having signed the Lusaka Agreement of July 1999 calling for a ceasefire and an end to the supply of weapons into the country, several shipments of small arms and light weapons arrived over the next few years.[xxiii]

During the 74th African Union’s Ordinary Session held in Lusaka, Zambia, in July 2001, the OAU Council of Ministers adopted Decision CM/Dec.599 (LXXIV) on the illicit proliferation, circulation and trafficking on small arms and light weapons.[xxiv] While OAU Member States were able to include these aspects in the final UN Programme of Action, they were unsuccessful in other key areas, notably the development of national action plans and programmes for, inter alia, the responsible management of legally held weapons; the negotiation, on a voluntary basis, of arrangements among neighbouring countries for effective systems of small arms control. As a result of this the DRC and Rwanda have been implicated in gun-running to rebel groups in the eastern DRC.

A November 2008 UN Security Council report suggested that one of the main rebel groups operating in the eastern DRC acquires most of its weapons and ammunition during offensives against the DRC government armed forces.[xxv]

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Map 6: Areas of grave violations against children in armed conflict
Source: http://www.un.org/children/conflict/_media/maps/CAACWorldMap_english.jpg

REFUGEES AND MIGRATION

Refugee flows can contribute to the spread of conflict in two main ways: The first is when a refugee influx alters the balance of power in the host state, by changing the country’s ethnic composition, for example, or affecting access to resources. This process of diffusion, as termed by Lake and Rothchild (1998), can generate violence in the host country. If the process is left unchecked the conflict can eventually engulf an entire region. There can even be a “chain reaction” in which ethnic war causes refugees, who de-stabilize a new place, causing more war, causing more refugees, and a flow of refugees to another country.[xxvi]

Migration spreads ethnic conflict across borders, creating an uncontrollable chain of ever ongoing instabilities and conflict situations. The conflict in Darfur resulted in refugee migration to Chad and due to the unstable situation in Chad there is an uprise of conflict caused by the refugees from Darfur. The conflict in Chad results in refugees to Nigeria.

The second way that refugee flows can contribute to the spread of violence is through a process of escalation that brings new belligerents into the conflict. This could include intervention by the host government in the conflict or the use of its territory by combatants for mobilization and attacks back into their home country.[xxvii] This is a situation where the two affected states can become involved in border clashes. Throughout 1995 with the influx of refugees into Rwanda it was hoped that some of the refugees will return to Rwanda, but as the situation dragged on, Rwanda warned that it would take action to eliminate the threat along its borders.

The Hutu-Tutsi rivalry in Rwanda has produced four major refugee flows into the Great Lakes Region (GLR):

• The first influx of refugees took place during 1959 – 1963, Hutu revolution in Rwanda, when an estimated 200,000 Tutsis fled into Uganda, Burundi and Eastern Congo.

• In 1972, there was approximately 300,000 Hutus that fled from Burundi into Tanzania and Rwanda to avoid genocidal massacres of Tutsi-dominated army.

• The assassination of Hutu president Melchior Ndadaye in October 1993 triggered another wave of an estimated 400,000 refugees in Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.

• The fourth and last flow of refugees was in 1994 with the genocide in Rwanda with about 2,000,000 Hutus fleeing from Eastern Congo and Tanzania to Rwanda, where they were settled in refugee camps.[xxviii]

The ethnic ties between the Hutus and Tutsis spread across three countries and have created strong alliances that become military conflicts with an ethnic background, and resulted in the conflict spreading into the Great Lakes region. By the end of 1998, the Kabila government has lost control of more than one-third of the country’s territory to the Le Rassemblement Congolias por la Democratie (RCD) rebel movement dominated by members of the Tutsi ethnic minority with the support of Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi.

IMPACT OF THE CONFLICT IN CENTRAL AFRICA

ECONOMIC SITUATION

The economy of the Democratic Republic of the Congo - a nation endowed with vast potential wealth - has declined drastically since the mid-1980s. The war, which began in August 1998, dramatically reduced national output and government revenue, increased external debt, and resulted in the deaths of perhaps 3.8 million people from violence, famine, and disease. Despite the country’s abundant power resources, provision of electricity to the population is poor. The DRC’s proven oil reserves, estimated at 187m barrels, are concentrated in the Congo River estuary, although production has been falling since 2004.

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REFUGEES AND THE DISPLACEMENT OF PEOPLE

In 1996 violence broke out in eastern Congo and the Congolese rebels, with the aid of Uganda and Rwanda, attacked the refugee camps and local villages and forced about 600,000 refugees back to Rwanda with renewed fighting breaking out in the DRC, hundreds of thousands of civilians have fled their homes. Currently more than one million civilians are displaced in North Kava, and an estimated 300,000 displaced in South Kava.

According to the United Nations, Chad has been affected by a humanitarian crisis since at least 2001. As of 2008, the country of Chad hosts over 280,000 refugees from the Sudan's Darfur region, over 55,000 from the Central African Republic, as well as over 170,000 internally displaced persons.

|Country |Brief Description |Dates |Deaths: |% of |
| | | |Total |Population |
|DRC |Civil war (ouster of Mobutu & aftermath) |1996-2005 |3,800,000 |7.6 |
|Rwanda |Ethnic violence and genocide |1994 |850,000 |16.1 |
|Burundi |Ethnic warfare |1993-2006 |300,000 |4.4 |
|Chad |Civil war |1965- |75,000 |1.4 |

Amnesty International says it has received reports indicating that insecurity and serious human rights violations continue to be the overwhelming daily reality in eastern Chad, particularly for women and girls. Internally displaced Chadian, the local population, refugees from Darfur, UN humanitarian agencies and international and national non-governmental organizations carrying out relief, development and human rights work in eastern Chad all face the consequences of this insecurity. All have regularly been the victims of a growing number of violent attacks depicted in Graph 2.

[pic] Graph 2: Global Warfare Totals

[pic] Graph 3: Global Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946-2006 (http://images.google.co.za/imgres

SOCIAL

|The conflict of the past two decades has left African countries |
|with enormous social problems. These countries are near the bottom|
|for most of the UNDP human development indicators. Life expectancy|
|at birth was estimated at just 49 in 2006.[xxix] |

Graph 4: Population Growth

CONFLICT RESOLUTION MECHANISMS

Since the African continent is politically volatile and the instability detracts the development of a security coordination/architecture the national and regional institutions are relatively weak. For this reason the Central Africa Africa Standby Force is not developing. This volatility and weakness also makes the region vulnerable to foreign interference and intervention. Common security arrangements would have many advantages in this context.

In order to understand the mechanisms needed to create peace, the reasons for the development of conflict must be understood. There exists in the international community the idea that conflict resolution is necessary and possible, however, it should also be understood that conflict should not be viewed as something intrinsically negative. Victor Azarya argues that conflict is natural and cannot be prevented. Because conflict cannot be eliminated, he further argues that conflict can only be contained and moderated.[xxx]

What the international community must aim to achieve is the elimination of violent conflict, not conflict in and of itself. Once this is understood the question then revolves around conflict management and violence prevention. The most effectiveness of global and regional conflict resolution structures needs examining to fully understand the dynamics of the conflict in Central Africa.

RWANDA

Reconciliation is the cornerstone of the Rwandan government’s strategy to heal from the genocide. The Rwandan government has made efforts towards reconciliation including the reintegration of ex-Forces Armées Rwandaises Hutu soldiers into the army’.[xxxi] The development of peace agreements is a necessary and inevitable part of the peace process.

The international community must show a sustained commitment to post-conflict societies. Oftentimes, nations emerging from conflict are so economically and politically disadvantaged that they lack the ability to enforce the stipulations of a peace agreement. This was the case in Rwanda where the Arusha Accords were unable to be adhered to because of the lack of resources and assistance from the international community.

National Unity and Reconciliation Commission (NURC)

Founded in 1999, the NURC has taken fundamental steps to reduce conflicts and curtail violence. The NURC is striving for a peaceful, united and prosperous nation according to the Constitution of the Republic of Rwanda, the mission of the NURC include particularly the following; promotion and reinforcing of national unity and reconciliation; educating the population on national unity and reconciliation; Research and annual report on the situation of national unity and reconciliation.

The following programmes were established within the NURC:

Department of Civic Education. The department contributes to the promotion of social cohesion through teaching the Rwandan population on their rights and duties as well as the internal relations on the structures of the government of the day.
Department of Peace Building and Conflict Management (PBCM). The PBCM monitors whether what is done conforms to national unity and reconciliation policy and advocates for it to become the responsibility of each and every Rwandan or Institution. It monitors all issues and events that affect effective implementation of Unity and reconciliation specifically related to social integration.

Gacaca Court. Derived from a traditional, dispute-resolution mechanism, this process is intended to allow communities to establish the facts and decide the fate of the vast majority of those accused of lesser offenses, while at the same time addressing reconciliation objectives and involving the population on a mass scale in the willingness of justice.

Media. Rwandan media have a powerful contribution in the implementation of alternative conflicts resolution strategies.

Current Status in Rwanda
The current situation in Rwanda is that peace prevails without hostilities. There is however a high degree of dissatisfaction between previous conflicting groups and this can lead to new uprisings of conflict.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

The two successive wars in DRC were followed by negotiations that led to the signing of various agreements, each of them emphasizing disarmament, especially of the FDLR as a precondition for peace. The Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement of 1999 called for the disarming of militias and armed groups, including the genocidal forces, with all parties committing themselves to the process of locating, identifying, disarming and assembling all members of armed groups in the DRC.

In an effort to uphold the ceasefire agreement and enhance the disarmament, the UN Security Council, through Resolution 1279, deployed the United Nations Organisation Mission in Congo (MONUC) in November 1999. MONUC’s mandate included voluntary Disarmament, Demobilisation, Repatriation, Rehabilitation and Reintegration (DDRRR) of armed groups.

Further negotiations led to the signing of the Inter-Congolese Dialogue (ICD) Final Act, commonly referred as the Sun City agreement, signed in 2003, The ICD Final Act allowed for the creation of a transitional government composed of the main political and rebel groups involved in the conflict. .[xxxii] This led to the creation of a transitional government (government of national unity) under the presidency of Joseph Kabila and four vice presidents.

The negotiation processes resulting in the signing of the various agreements can be linked to the conflict resolution module in the design in figure 1.

[pic]

Source: ENSP lecture, Mr T de Jager on 13 August 2009

The lack of capacity by MONUC resulted in the UNSC Resolution 1565 of 1 October 2004 and 1649 (2006) that expanded MONUC to 16,700 troops.[xxxiii] Despite several attempts to disarm the rebels in the DRC, the process still faces significant challenges. The FDLR continues to reject disarmament programmes and has refused to comply with the process. Its members remain in the Kivus with the possibilities or re-mobilising.

Despite the Lusaka peace agreement signed in 1999, there was still fighting going on and the peace was fragile. There were various political problems in trying to get a UN peacekeeping force in there to help out, while killings continued. Due to conflicts of interests, there were fears that the UN peacekeeping mission would even be aborted before it got started.

The peace agreement in the DRC is holding for most parts of the country except for the Eastern DRC (Kivu and Uturi provinces) where rebels not signatories of the peace agreement are still active. Rebel groups from Uganda and Burundi also operate from the eastern DRC into their own respective countries. The biggest UN peace keeping force is currently deployed within the DRC where more than 15,000 peacekeepers are deployed.

The DRC’s problems are the product of dysfunctional national and regional politics, and the long-term solutions will lie with the corresponding parties. However, to date they have not shown sufficient resolve to do so. Much of the post-event justification changed to describing the UN’s role in the DRC as being to ‘broadly ensure law and order and is better served as a confidence building actor than as a security provider’.[xxxiv]

Current Situation in DRC

The peace agreement in the DRC is holding for most parts of the country except for the Eastern DRC (Kivu and Uturi provinces) where rebels not signatories of the peace agreement are still active. Rebel groups from Uganda and Burundi also operate from the eastern DRC into their own respective countries.

The biggest UN peace keeping force is currently deployed within the DRC where more than 15,000 peacekeepers are deployed.

[pic]
United Nations Soldiers in Chad – Conflict Talks (http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200802/r220957_868965.jpg)

CHAD

There has been an international peacekeeping presence in eastern Chad (Picture 1) for close to 14 months, but it is under-staffed and under-resourced. In a report to the Security Council on 14 April 2009, the UN Secretary General indicated that MINURCAT (the UN mission in the area) is only at 40 per cent of its intended deployment of 5200.

UN forces are currently deployed with a humanitarian relief mandate. The rebels have formed a coalition with the government. From time to time these rebels tempt to attack the government, but they are not a big threat. These attacks are normally during the raining season, October to November. Currently peace prevails with limited incidents of conflict but the internal political instability in the country is having devastating consequences on the peace processes. Map 7

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Map 7: Conflict Areas Impacting Stability in Chad

Current Situation in Chad

The peace agreement in the DRC is holding for most parts of the country except for the Eastern DRC (Kivu and Uturi provinces) where rebels not signatories of the peace agreement are still active. Rebel groups from Uganda and Burundi also operate from the eastern DRC into their own respective countries. The biggest UN peace keeping force is currently deployed within the DRC where more than 15,000 peacekeepers are deployed.

CONCLUSION

There is no blueprint or set of established procedures by which violent conflicts in and between societies can be resolved. However, there is much to learn from what was and still is being done with regard to conflict resolutions.

There is a need to build sustainable resolution skills, such as mediation within communities, to enable them to self-manage their conflicts. This will assist in decreasing the overload of cases experienced by the current dispute resolution initiatives, as well as ensuring that communities are able to continue to resolve and manage conflicts on their own after the CNTB and international NGOs, such as ACCORD, completed their work in the countries.

The success of the Arusha Peace Process is due to the manner in which it managed to restore trust and confidence among the Rwandese of different ethnic groups. There was also a negotiation strategy which encouraged the parties to negotiate. During the negotiation process all issues, each piece of detail was discussed in order to remove fear, mistrust and hatred. Confidence and trust was built among the parties to the conflict in an evolutionary and incremental manner.

The United Nations play a very important role in peace and security, sustainable development promotion, conflict prevention and conflict resolution, human rights promotion, improvement of social services, providing protection and care for refugees, displaced persons and other vulnerable groups. The concern is that with the UN forces deployed it ensures peace but due to the volatile situation conflicts can emerge at any time.

The UN Secretary Council should take note of the UN Secretary General’s observations of April (S/2008/215) and June 2008 (S/2008/444) which stated that to achieve lasting peace and security in the region, and to ensure the protection of refugees and International Displaced People (DP), the following need to be addressed; • The crisis in Chad and Sudan must be tackled simultaneously and through a coordinated strategy “that takes into account the root causes of the internal conflicts and the regional aspects.” • The problem of the uncontrolled borders of Chad must be addressed; the U.N. Security Council should build on the existing MINURCAT mandate to include the deployment of a military component with capabilities similar to those of EUFOR, as well as UN police with both the mandate and resources to conduct patrols and investigations outside of the refugee camps and IDP sites in conjunction with Chadian law enforcement. • The police, judicial sector, local and traditional justice systems and key governmental structures must be strengthened.[xxxv]
The AU, EU and UN must assist the Rwanda government to establish a mechanism for strategic management of FDLR disarmament and demobilisation composed of military and civilian MONUC personnel, Congolese and Rwandan officials, specialists from facilitation countries, to formulate a new FDLR disarmament strategy and to coordinate the activities of all international entities – military and civilian – involved in its implementation.

During the last decade, a number of conflicts have come to a close in Africa and worldwide. A new chapter in African history is upon us – one of reconstruction, not war. The many conflicts that have ravished the African continent can help inform domestic and international parties as to how best to rebuild shattered societies. Examining the past also helps those who are studying conflict management understand conflict and prevent future conflict. Through a sustained long-term commitment of resources, both human and financial, in order to rectify the horizontal inequalities that is often at the root of so many conflicts. If action fails to materialise, the African continent will inevitably backtrack into the violence the international community has worked so hard to terminate.

Word Count 6 498

DECLARATION ON PLAGIARISM

I, Ms C. Auret, the undersigned hereby declare that this paper in its entirety is my own work and that I have acknowledged all sources used. It contains no material taken from the work of a Programme member (current or historic), notes or from any other Programme or course at this or any other tertiary institution, an internet source, published work of any nature or any other source.

C. Auret _____________________________ Date__________________________

REFERENCES

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[i] Huntington, Samuel P. “The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century”. Norman:University of Oklahoma, 1991. p271.
[ii] Handelman, Howard. “The Challenge of Third World Development”. University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, New Jersey, 2000. Chap 10 (No page numbers available).
[iii] Check, Nicasius A, “Conflict in the Great Lakes Region: Revisiting the Case of Burundi,” Africa Insight Vol 37 (1) April 2007, p46
[iv] Kadende Kaiser, R, and Kaiser Paul, J. Phases of Conflict in Africa, University of Pennsylvania, de Sitter Publications, 2005
[v] Cilliers, J. “Human Security in Africa: A Conceptual Framework for Review”. African Human Security Initiative, 2004.
[vi] Ibid
[vii] http://www.socialistparty.org.uk/articles/3778 , From The Socialist, 13 February 2008, downloaded 29 August 2009
[viii] R. Cornwell, ENSP lecture, State Degeneration, 17 August 2009
[ix] http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2823.htm, Democratic Republic of Congo, US Department of State, Diplomacy in Action, downloaded 3 November 2009
[x] Country Profile 2008 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2008 page3
[xi] ibid
[xii] Country Profile 2008 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2008 page11
[xiii] Kigali, The Causes of Violence after the 1994 genocide in Rwanda, Premier Consulting Group, January 2008, p22
[xiv] www.human rights statistics downloaded 4 September 2009
[xv] McCoy, David, Rectifying Horizontal Inequalities: Lessons from African Continent page 109
[xvi] Country Profile 2008 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2008 page12
[xvii] McCoy, David, Rectifying Horizontal inequalities: Lessons from African Continent page 116
[xviii] Country Profile 2008 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2008 page3
[xix] McCoy, David, Rectifying Horizontal inequalities: Lessons from African Continent page 110
[xx] Fallah, A, Bob, Bad Governance Is Africa’s Major Problem, Forum, Monrovia, Liberia, May 16, 2006
[xxi] http://www.africa-union.org/, The African Union, The peace and Security Agenda, downloaded 11 October 2009
[xxii] Fallah, A, Bob, Bad Governance Is Africa’s Major Problem, Forum, Monrovia, Liberia, May 16, 2006 p 35
[xxiii] Fallah, A, Bob, Bad Governance Is Africa’s Major Problem, Forum, Monrovia, Liberia, May 16, 2006 Ibid p35
[xxiv] http://www.africa-union.org/, The African Union, The peace and Security Agenda, downloaded 11 October 2009
[xxv] Lamb, Guy, Stoking the Fires: The International Arms Trade in Africa, Arms Management Programme, ISS Vol 2 Issue 1 March 2009
[xxvi] Kadende Kaiser, R, and Kaiser Paul, J. Phases of Conflict in Africa, University of Pennsylvania, de Sitter Publications, 2005 p64
[xxvii] Ibid p64
[xxviii] Alusala, Nelson, Armed Conflict and Disarmament, Selected Central African Case Studies, Institute for Security Studies, 2007, p32
[xxix] A, “Country Profile”
[xxx] Ibid p33
[xxxi] Ibid
[xxxii] Alusala, Nelson, Armed Conflict and Disarmament, Selected Central African Case Studies, Institute for Security Studies, 2007, p37
[xxxiii] Ibid p38
[xxxiv] Ibid page 28
[xxxv] http://www.caringforkaela.org/publications&usg downloaded 5 Sep 09

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[pic]

Algeria

Chad

Sudan

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Somalia

Rwandaa

Burundi

DRC

Angola

Mozambique

Liberia

Sierra Leone

India

Chad

Rwanda

DRC

Map 3: Oil Reserves in Chad

Map 5: Rebel Groups positions in Eastern DRC

President Kagame Map of Rwanda with Neighboring Countries

Economic Performance

Main economic indicators 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Real GDP growth (%) 5.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 7.0
Consumer price inflation (av; % 12.9 4.0 21.3 13.1 16.9
Current-account balance (US$ m) -83 -157 -755 -653 -873
Exchange rate (av; FC:US$) 405 396 474 468 517
Population (m) 55.2 56.9 58.7 60.6 62.6
External debt (year-end; US$) 11,254 11,434 10,600 11,201 11,760

Sources: Banque centrale du Congo; IMF; Economist Intelligence Unit.

Various Agreements

Thesis
+

Antithesis
-

Synthesis

Tension/energy

3rd Party