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Dry Bulk Shipping in 2015

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Maritime Economics
(Assignment 2)

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Lai Wen Hao
195125

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Dr Hong-Oanh Nguyen
JNB328
Maritime Economics
Bachelor of Business
(Maritime and Logistics Management)

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27 April 2015
1906

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Abstract
The dry bulk shipping market is highly volatile and subject to many market influences.
Operating in a market of perfect competition, individual suppliers and consumers have little control over the freight rates, and the market outcome. This paper examines the key issues affecting dry bulk shipping in 2015. It includes the shipping demand factors affecting the market and the market oversupply issue that was resultant of the dry bulk shipping market boom in 2013. Further on, the paper discusses the strategies that can be implemented by individual shipping companies to deal with the impending issues in 2015. This includes fleet size policies, operational policies, and employment strategies. Upon close examination, it is apparent that the strategies that have been discussed are not one-size-fits-all. The strategies employed by dry bulk shipping firms in 2015 are therefore intrinsically dependent on their financial capability, risk profile and appetite for profits.

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Table of Contents
Abstract __________________________________________________________________ ii
Table of Contents __________________________________________________________ iii
Introduction _______________________________________________________________ 1
Dry bulk shipping issues and their impact in 2015 _________________________________ 1
Key strategies for dry bulk shipping companies ___________________________________ 3
Conclusion _______________________________________________________________ 5
References ________________________________________________________________ 6

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Introduction

The dry bulk shipping market is subject to many market influences and had historically been highly volatile (Stopford 2009). Demand for dry bulk shipping and the corresponding supply affects the market in terms of freight rates, revenue, costs, newbuilds, scraps, and also the second-hand market (Chiste & van Vuuren 2014). Demand for dry bulk shipping is an externality that shipping companies have little control over. Shipping firms therefore control the market in the form of vessel supply. However, the adjustment of supply in the market takes a few years to realise. Therefore, it is imperative that dry bulk shipping companies adopt strategies that allow them to stay afloat when the market is caught in a recession.

Dry bulk shipping issues and their impact in 2015
Vessel oversupply. The world dry bulk fleet amounted to 770 million deadweight tonnage
(mdwt) at the start of 2015, and 85 mdwt of newbuilds are scheduled to be delivered the same year (Precious Shipping 2015). While the newbuilding orders are starting to slow, the effects of oversupply is expected to persist in 2015 (Lee 2014). SafBulk commercial and chartering director George Kalogeropoulos suggested that there is currently a 15% oversupply in the market (Varin 2015). Demand is forecasted to be bleak in 2015 due to the Indonesian export ban and China’s reduced coal imports (Pacific Basin 2015). The oversupply has caused freight rates to plummet. Assuming operating expenses (OPEX) of US$4500 for Handymaxes up to
US$7500 for Capesizes per day, only Handymaxes and Supramaxes are making enough to cover OPEX (Sand 2015). On top of OPEX, capital costs are still unrecoverable for all classes of vessels. This means that dry bulk shipping companies could yield a loss in 2015.

Asian mineral export restrictions. Indonesia had implemented a ban on nickel, tin and bauxite exports in January 2014 (Evans-Pritchard 2014). With nickel alone accounting of 64.8 million tonnes of shipping in 2013, the ban adversely affects the overall demand in the dry bulk shipping market (Lennon 2014). As mineral ore from Indonesia are commonly shipped by
Supramax vessels, Supramax freight rates have fallen from the 2013 average of US$9,468 per day to US$5,002 as of 18 February 2015 (Christie 2014; BIMCO 2015; UNCTAD 2014).
Supramax vessels seeking cargo then compete with Panamaxes for grain, fertilisers and alumina (Christie 2014). This has caused Panamax freight rates to fall from US$6,600 in 2013

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to less than US$5,000 in 2015 (UNCTAD 2014; BIMCO 2015). While the Philippines announced a similar export ban, it will not be implemented the next seven years and therefore should not have any effect on freight rates in the short-term (Dela Cruz 2014). This lower demand further aggravates the oversupply issue, and will result in low or negative profitability in the shipping market.

Coal trends. China is the largest coal importer in the world, importing 291 million tonnes of coal in 2014 (Dale 2015c). Contrary to optimistic forecasts in 2014, 2015 forecasts for Chinese coal imports are low, with its largest domestic producer Shenhua forecasting a reduction in the supply of coal (Sexton 2014; Janda 2015). On the other hand, in India, the Modi government had established an objective of stable 24-hour power supply across the country (DNA India
2014). Indian coal imports are therefore expected to increase from the 163 million tonnes of thermal coal imported in 2014 (Das 2015). In 2014, China reduced import by 36 million tonnes while India increased imports by 26 million tonnes, a resultant demand reduction of 10 million tonnes of coal (Pacific Basin 2015). Panamax freight rates from Indonesian to China has therefore fallen to about $3,000 per day, compared to more than $6,000 in 2014 (Wallis &
Gloystein 2015). In 2015, China is expected to reduce imports by 50 million tonnes, while
Indian demand is forecasted to increase by 10 million tonnes, a resultant forecast reduction of
40 million tonnes (Latimer 2015; Frontier 2014). This means that overall demand in bulk shipping for coal will fall, resulting in lower freight rates, revenues and profits for shipping companies. Iron ore prices. In December 2014, Shinji Kawai of Mirubeni and Murillo Ferreira of Vale had forecasted that iron ore prices will rise in 2015 (Sexton 2014). However, with prices of iron ore at US$47.53 as of 10 April 15, the forecasts have proven to be inaccurate (Ingram
2015). Top iron ore producers Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Fortescue Metals Group are projecting outputs of more than 1 billion tonnes of iron ore, fueling an iron ore glut in a bid to sieve out smaller rivals and increase market share (Heath 2015; Serapio 2015). This drop in iron ore prices had also caused high-cost Chinese domestic producers to leave the market
(Russell 2015). However, the Chinese government has since implemented tax subsidies to promote domestic production, discouraging iron ore imports (Ker 2015). Therefore, while there is still adequate supply in the market, demand for shipping is not strong due to weak import demand from China. This will adversely affect the revenue and profitability of shipping firms in 2015.
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Beijing ban on 400,000 deadweight tonnage vessels. China has announced that it will lift the ban on 400,000 deadweight tonnage Valemaxes calling at Chinese ports (Yang 2015). The shipping industry is heavily dependent on taking advantage of economies of scale (Stopford
2009). The moderation of Chinese restriction on Valemaxes can then allow companies to take advantage of lower costs and increase their profit margin. Valemaxes allow transportation cost savings of about $7 per ton over current costs of about $22 per ton (Forbes 2014). The cheaper transportation can then incentivise iron ore imports from Brazil to China, exemplified by the
Vale-Cosco 25-year contract of affreightment (COA) (Sexton 2014). All these translate into greater demand and lower costs for dry bulk shipping, which means that profits may be marginally improved following the lift of the Chinese ban.

Key strategies for dry bulk shipping companies

Variable-cost strategy.

During a market recess, a common method used to improve

profitability is to drive down costs. Companies therefore implement a variable-cost strategy to lay up older and less efficient ships when freight rates are not able to cover operating expenses and lay-up costs. In the case of Capesize fleet for example, shipping firms will be forced to lay up their Capesize vessel if freight rates dip below US$5,000 per day (Kelley 2015b). Beyond the firms’ cost management objectives, the variable-cost strategy can also help to control the tonnage supply in the market and ease the supply glut. Analysts therefore foresee that this strategy would be widely used in the industry, with fleet utilisation forecasts at 73% in 2015, compared to the high of about 95% in 2008 (Dale 2015b; Christie & Matsuda 2015).

Slow-steaming. Another method that can achieve immediate results is the implementation of slow steaming. Ships can steam at economical speeds to increase the ratio of distance to fuel consumption. For example, for a distance of 750 nautical miles (nm), a Panamax bulk carrier may consume 75 tonnes of fuel at 15kn, compared to 49.5t of fuel at a slower speed of 12kn
(Stopford 2009). This strategy helps the shipping firm to reduce costs and improve profitability in the low freight rate environment. It can also help to relieve the market of tonnage oversupply as slow-steaming ships in the market complete less voyages within a fixed time period. Vessel utilisation can then be increased through lowered fuel costs, allowing ships in lay-up to return

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to the market (Yin, Fan, Yang & Li 2014). This also allows the shipping firm to avoid hefty lay-up costs, which can go up to about $1,500 for a Capesize vessel (Rust 2015).

Scrapping. Dry bulk shipping companies engaged in scrapping directly reduces tonnage oversupply in the market. On top of reducing market supply of dry bulk shipping, shipping firms which sell their ships for scrap are able to obtain cash flows from the sale and tide themselves through the recession and low freight rates. Many companies have been seen to adopt this strategy. In 2014, about 14 million deadweight tonnage had been scrapped from the market (BIMCO 2014). In the first two months of 2015 alone, 68 dry bulk vessels amounting to five million deadweight tonnage had been demolished, of which the Capesize vessels averaged 21 years of age (Kristiansen 2015). This compares to 24.1 years of age in 2014, which suggests that the low freight rates and inbound cash flows are a heavy incentive for cash-tight shipowners to scrap their vessels in 2015 (Clarksons Research 2014).

Second-hand purchase and sale. Shipowners in financial distress can also opt to sell their vessels on the second-hand market to obtain cash flows and reduce their operating expenses and lay-up costs, in order to improve profitability. However, the low freight rates have caused asset value to drop. An example is that of Capesize C Prosperity built in 2011. In April 2014 the proposed price of C Prosperity stood at US$46 million (Kelley 2015a). However, there have been speculation that the vessel is now worth only US$30 million. Since this strategy necessitates selling vessels at exceptionally low prices, only companies in financial distress would employ this strategy. On the other hand, this situation presents an opportunity for companies with strong financial capacity. For example, Diana Shipping had indicated that it intends to expand its fleet throughout 2015, capitalising on its strong finances and exploiting the second-hand market (Dale 2015a). This strategy can prove to be rewarding if freight rates and asset values surge in the future.

Fixed-term fleet employment. Long-term time charters and COAs can allow a shipping firm to secure tonnage demand over a fixed time period (Stopford 2009). Such contracts are usually made between the shipper and the shipping firm at a fixed rate and guarantees both the shipper and the shipping firm against any freight rate fluctuations in the market. An example is the
COA between Vale and Cosco to ship iron ore from Brazil to China for 25 years (Sexton 2014).
This provides Cosco with secured demand and revenue over the next 25 years, and safeguards itself from any low freight rate markets during the period. Shorter-term agreements can also
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guarantee employment while offering greater flexibility. NewLead, for example, had recently entered into a COA for a twelve-month period starting March 2015, allowing it to lock in stable revenue in times of market instability (PR Newswire 2015). However, there are companies such as Baltic Trading which choose to trade exclusively on the spot market as an overarching corporate strategy, anticipating significantly higher future spot rates (Baltic Trading n.d.).

Conclusion
The dry bulk shipping market is subject to many market influences and is highly volatile.
Operating in perfect competition, shipping firms have little control over market outcomes.
However, dry bulk shipping companies are still able to adopt policies to strengthen their market position in the exceedingly volatile market. Policies with regard to fleet size can be effective in managing a firm’s income, costs and cash flows. These include the shipping companies’ decisions to lay-up, slow-steam, scrap, or sell their vessels in the second-hand market.
Differing employment strategies may also be utilized. These include long-term contracts for stable revenue, or a policy to trade exclusively in the spot market. Regardless of a shipping firm’s long-term strategy, dry bulk shipping companies must remain flexible in adapting to the market movements, and adjust their policies accordingly so that they can thrive in the evervolatile dry bulk shipping market.

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References
Baltic Trading (n.d.), Baltic Trading, New York, viewed 23 April 2015, .
BIMCO 2014, Dry bulk shipping – a reduced orderbook is improving slightly on a difficult situation, BIMCO, Copenhagen, viewed 23 April 2015, .
BIMCO 2015, Dry bulk shipping – after all-time low Baltic dry index (BDI), stronger volumes in Q2 likely to support the freight market, BIMCO, Copenhagen, viewed 21 April 2015,
.
Chiste, C & van Vuuren, G 2014, ‘Investigating the cyclical behaviour of the dry bulk shipping market’, Maritime Policy & Management, vol. 41, no. 1, pp. 1-19, viewed 22 April
2015, .
Christie, N 2014, Dry-bulk ships head for record low on Indonesian ore ban, Bloomberg, New
York, viewed 19 April 2015,
Christie, N & Matsuda, K 2015, Shipping costs test new low as China coal imports slide: freight, Bloomberg, New York, viewed 23 April 2015, .
Clarksons Research 2014, Demolition levels still coming into profile, Clarksons Research,
Herefordshire, United Kingdom, viewed 22 April 2015, .
Das, KN 2015, India’s coal imports jump 19 pct in 2014 – mjunction, Reuters, London, viewed
20 April 2015, .
Dale, K 2015a, Diana Shipping recorded revenue growth: what’s its strategy?, Market Realist,
New York, viewed 24 April 2015, .
Dale, K 2015b, Dip in the dry bulk orderbook signals a cautious outlook, Market Realist, New
York, viewed 23 April 2015, .
Dale, K 2015c, Why China’s coal imports are declining, Market Realist, New York, viewed
20 April 2015, .
Dela Cruz, E 2014, Philippine lawmaker sees five-year grace period before ore export ban,
Reuters, London, viewed 21 April 2015, .

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DNA India 2014, Government aiming at 24x7 power supply: Narendra Modi, DNA India,
Mumbai, viewed 20 April 2015, .
Evans-Pritchard, A 2014, Indonesia bans nickel, tin and bauxite exports, Sydney Morning
Herald, Sydney, viewed 19 April 2015, .
Forbes 2014, Cooperation agreement with Cosco will help Vale lower transportation costs,
Forbes, New York, viewed 24 April 2015, .
Frontier 2014, Global coal market outlook for 2015, Frontier, Mongolia.
Heath, M 2015, China, Australia to talk iron ore demand as BHP, Rio drive glut, Bloomberg,
New York, viewed 21 April 2015, .
Ingram, T 2015, Falling iron ore prices means BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto might clear only $US1 a tonne, Australian Financial Review, Melbourne, viewed 14 April 2015,
.
Janda, M 2015, New coal mines have Buckley’s chance as China cuts consumption: analyst,
ABC News, Sydney, viewed 20 April 2015, .
Kelley, A 2015a, Cape commands $30m, TradeWinds, Stamford, United States, viewed 23
April 2015, .
Kelley, A 2015b, How low can you go?, TradeWinds, Stamford, United States, viewed 23 April
2015, .
Ker, P 2015, China’s iron ore tax cut puts heat on Australian miners, Sydney Morning Herald,
Sydney, viewed 24 April 2015, .
Kristiansen, T 2015, Dry bulk shipowners ready to scrap young ships, ShippingWatch,
Copenhagen, viewed 22 April 2015, .
Latimer, C 2015, China to cut coal consumption, Mining Australia, Sydney, viewed 20 April
2015, .

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Lee, HL 2014, Dry bulk oversupply to see rebalance in next two years: Jinhui, Seatrade Global,
London, viewed 21 April 2015, .
Lennon, J 2014, ‘The nickel market outlook: from over-supply to shortage?’, research presentation, Macquarie Commodities Research, Sydney, viewed 21 April 2015,
.
Pacific Basin 2015, Dry bulk market review 2014, Pacific Basin Shipping Limited, Hong Kong, viewed 20 April 2015, .
Precious Shipping 2015, Annual review 2014, Precious Shipping Public Company Limited,
Bangkok.
PR Newswire 2015, NewLead Holdings announces contract of affreightment for NewLead
Markela, PR Newswire, New York, viewed 23 April 2015, .
Russell, C 2015, Big iron ore miners supply strategy working partially, Reuters, London, viewed 21 April 2015, .
Rust, B 2015, Eastern Pacific puts capsize traing on hold, TradeWinds, Stamford, United
States, viewed 23 April 2015, .
Sand, P 2015, Worst is over for the dry bulk market, but the pain will remain, BIMCO,
Copenhagen, viewed 21 April 2015, .
Serapio, M Jr 2015, As iron ore slides, China buyers inflict more pain on small miners, Reuters,
London, viewed 21 April 2015, .
Sexton, D 2014, Five issues sure to shape dry bulk during 2015, Lloyd’s List, London, viewed
14 April 2015, .
Stopford, M 2009, Maritime Economics, 3rd edn, Routledge, New York.
UNCTAD 2012, Review of maritime transport 2012, UNCTAD, Geneva, viewed 21 April
2015, .
UNCTAD 2014, Review of maritime transport 2014, UNCTAD, Geneva, viewed 21 April
2015, .

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Varin, C 2015, Freight shipping prices sink on oversupply, China slowdown, Business Insider,
New York, viewed 20 April 2015, .
Yang, J 2015, China lifts three-year ban on Valemax cargo ships, South China Morning Post,
Hong Kong, viewed 19 April 2015, .
Yin, J, Fan, L, Yang, Z & Li, KX 2014, ‘Slow steaming of liner trade: its economic and environmental impacts’, Maritime Policy & Management, vol. 41, no. 2, pp. 149-58, viewed 23 April 2015, .

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