...assessment of current economic activity, financial markets, and the monetary policy tools used to promote economic activity and preserve price stability. 1. Describe the Federal Reserve’s assessment of the current economic activity and financial markets. 2. Explain the Federal Reserve’s current view about inflation. 3. Describe the monetary policy tools the Federal Reserve uses to stabilize the economy and maintain price stability. 4. Based on the information you researched from Federal Reserve publications, present and justify your own economic outlook for the next 12 to 18 months. Introduction American economy is composed of financial balance of services, Agricultural, manufacturing and banking industry. In the result U.S one of the biggest global economy which comprises of foreign investments and movement of wealth in trade. From past many years the U.S economy is emerged more as service based and industrial base economy than farming based. This result the banking system to be more complex to deal with the government and currency , instituting the regulations and a centralized bank to regulate and from a policies which could limitize the negative effect on the general economic health on the country. In this paper I will analyze the Federal Reserve Banking System in U.S.A and the Federal Reserve’s assessment of the current economic activity and financial markets. its current view about increasing inflations . Current economic activity : Recently...
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...CRISIS | | INDIA AND SUB-PRIME CRISIS Sub-prime, as the word suggests, is something that is not prime. In the Sub-prime crisis context it simply means lending money to Sub-prime borrowers i.e. lending to people with low or poor credit worthiness. Sub-prime crisis was caused because the lending norms in the USA were very lax. It is joked about in the academic circles that any man who was not on a respirator was given a loan without any regard to his or her creditworthiness. This was brought about by the “Spend yourself out of the post dot com bust recession” policy of the American government at that time. The end result of the Sub-prime crisis is manifesting itself in myriad ways. There are direct and indirect implications not only for the United States but for the entire world. The Sub-prime that was brought upon by the American financial system upon itself is spreading its tentacles around the world. People who were not even remotely connected with the Sub-prime crisis are being adversely affected. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official agency in charge of declaring that the economy is in a state of recession. They define recession as: “significant decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months, which is normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales”. BUSINESS CYCLE The term business cycle (or economic cycle) refers to economy-wide...
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...In 2008, the U.S. Economy experienced a drop in the stock market so fast and unexpected that it has been called the “Great Recession” (Santucci, 2011) and the “Crash of 2008” (Crash of 2008, 2010). Many things contributed to the recession, but the main cause was sub-prime lending by banks. Basically banks were lending money to people to buy homes that they couldn't afford. Due to the sub-prime mortgages going belly-up, along with the spiraling effects of bank failures such as the automotive industry needing to borrow billions of dollars, the U.S. Economy experienced is worst economic situations since the Great Depression. The causes of the recession date back many years, and as far back as 1980. This is when bank deregulation begins (Crash of 2008, 2010), which means less qualifications are needed to give out a loan. This recession could have been foreseen by some since in 1987, there was a stock market crash that occurred after the banking deregulation began (Crash of 2008, 2010). As we get closer to the Crash of 2008, we find that there are more and more subtle signs. One of the biggest early signs was in 2001 when the annual issue of US mortgage backed bonds increased from $500- $2,000 billion (Crash of 2008, 2010). Also, with the U.S. Backing more bonds at such a high rate and causing the interest rates at an all time low, from 2001 to the third quarter in 2006, the average house value was raised by 80% (Crash of 2008, 2010). After this time, the housing market experienced...
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...Positive and Negative Effects of the Global Financial Crisis Harlita H. Tomlinson Capella University BMGT8114: Accounting in the Global Era Dr. Wendy Achilles June 8,2014 Table of Contents Abstract 3 Positive and Negative Effects of the Global Financial Crisis 4 Background on the Global Financial Crisis 5 Global Financial Crisis and Its Negative Effects 9 Lack of Financial Sector Regulation and Oversights 9 Increase in the Number of Bankruptcies 11 Global Financial Crisis and Its Positive Effects 12 Designing Regulations to Monitor the Financial Sector 12 Global Governance as a Side Effect of the Global Financial Crisis 13 Lessons Learned 16 Domestic Lessons Learned 16 Global Lessons Learned 17 Lessons from Romania. 18 The Role of Financial Executives in GFC 19 Conclusions 21 References 24 Abstract The first financial crisis of the twenty-first century has not yet ended, according to Gorton and Metrick (2012), the wave of research on the crisis has already exceeded any single reader’s capacity, with the pace of new work only making this task harder. The Global Financial Crisis is considered by many economists to be the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Global Financial Crisis resulted in the threat of the total collapse of large financial institutions, the bailout of banks by national governments, and market downturns around the world. In the aftermath of this crisis, the housing market declined significantly and has not...
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...The problem to be investigated is how unethical loan practices can result in the macroeconomic crippling of a nation. This paper will discuss the driving forces of unethical lending, contributing factors that foster such behavior, and the destructive results that follow. It would be an injustice to attribute the subprime mortgage financial crisis to only one factor, as there were several key elements that factored into the fall. It would be safe to say, however, that greed was factor that contributed the most to the downfall, mostly because it was greed that perpetuated the continuation of the disaster. There were also contributing factors that were predicated from good intentions, such as the Clinton administration’s campaign to put more American taxpayers in homeowner status by establishing the Community Reinvestment Act Legislation. In theory, the concept was worthy of merit, but the movement was undermined by the predatory instincts of financial organizations and the brokers and professional people who would stand to profit from the plan. As the regulatory requirements for obtaining home mortgages became more relaxed, scores of people who were previously unable to qualify for home loans, were suddenly able to not only qualify, but also qualify for homes that were otherwise out of their financial range (Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, 2008). This was due, in part, to a number of extenuating circumstances, and a mélange of different standards that were loosened to accommodate...
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...Why did China fare much better than the United States and the United Kingdom during the 2007-2009 financial crisis ? 1. Global financial crisis 2007 to 2009 1.1 Background The 2007-2009 financial crisis started as a sub-prime crisis in the United States (US). The Wall Street, driven for higher profits and low federal fund rate in home ownership began lending to sub-primes (Whalley et al, 2009). The mortgage loans were then re-packaged into financial instruments and sold to investors globally. When the housing prices declined in 2006, sub-primes defaulted on their mortgage loans as the values of their houses depreciated. These non-performing loans grew in sizes and led to the collapse of the mortgage loan market and collateralised debt obligations, leaving banks and financial institutions with lower net worth (Bianco, 2008). Due to the interconnected economies, the impact of the crisis spread beyond the US and resulted in a global financial crisis. | | | 1. | | | 2. | | | 3. | | | 4. | | | 5. | | | | | | | | | | 1. | | | | | | | 1. | | | 2. | | | 3. | | | | | | GDP: GDP growth (%): Considering that China’s GDP was only a third of the USA’s, its fiscal stimulus package size was significant in comparison to USA and UK, where the stimulus package were only 6% and 1.4% of their respective GDP (Fleet, 2010).. Hu Jintao committed at the G20...
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...1920’s, when economic depression of 1929 occurred. It is said that history repeats itself. Today’s world financial crisis which started with mortgage crisis is only one aspect of history. Crisis began with sub-prime lending crisis and whole financial system was engulfed. Sub-prime crisis refers to the crisis faced by the mortgage companies that were in loaning business that due to adverse situations ran in trouble. As a result the number of defaulters increased resulting in huge bad debts for the mortgagee companies. Several of world’s best managed financial institutions went bankrupt and rests are dying for bail out. The world demand cycle is heading south and its impact is visible in world petroleum prices and auto manufacturer’s recent outcry for bailout. The liquidity is engulfing the whole world and taking the shape of financial famine. In the period of strong global growth growing capital flow and prolonged stability market participant sought higher output without an adequate calculation of the risks and failed to exercise proper due diligence. Weak underwriting standards, unsound risk management practices increasingly complex and opaque financial products and consequent excessive leverage combined to create vulnerabilities in the system. At the same time what looked as brisk-effervescence is financial market ended up in becoming alarm ringer for a greater catastrophe in the coming years. This was started with a small upheaval created by the sub prime crisis in...
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...Role of Structured Credit Products in the Recent Financial Crisis Abstract In 2008, the world faced the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of 1930s. The collapse of the housing bubble and the increasing default rates on subprime mortgages in 2006 triggered liquidity constraints and the insolvency of firms which were priorly considered “too big to fail”, set off a domino effect across the US and global financial markets. Although it has been suggested that the causes of the crisis in the big picture are attributable to the fundamental properties of capitalist system, today it is beyond any doubt that the structured financial instruments and the prevalent risks they revealed were at the center of the turmoil. In this paper, we look at the development of financial innovation and the advent of the structured products. The major risks they possess, how they have led to the financial crisis. Keywords: structured credit products, global financial crisis, CDO, CDS, structured finance 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Structured products …………………..…………………………………………………..……4 Risks involved with structured products ………………………………………………………7 Role of structured products in the global financial crisis …………………………………….10 Measures taken and post-crisis situation .……………………..……………………………...12 References ……………………………………………………………………………………14 3 1 Structured Products Structured products have changed the way the banks manage and mitigate the risk in their portfolios...
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...Introduction The global financial crisis which started in early 2007 has proven to be perhaps the great financial catastrophe in history. Although it traces its roots back to the starting of the millennia, the subsequent meltdown was most gruesome over the past 3 years. What began as a crisis of the sub-prime mortgage market in the United States quickly transcended national borders and developed into a upheaval of epic proportions. What ensued was a systematic debacle of stock exchanges, investment banking, derivatives etc. all financial markets ranging from equity, currency, real estate, futures etc. In order to fully understand the devastation caused by this dilemma, we have to take focus on the core issues and identify the stream of events as they occurred and how they subsequently collapsed global financial markets. Housing Bubble Burst The global financial crisis began through the US sub-prime mortgage market. The past two decades leading up to the year 2005 had experienced phenomenal growth in terms of increases in housing prices. There was an abundance of capital flowing into the country and this translated into excess liquidity available for banks to lend out. The Sub-Prime Mortgage Market refers to a market where people with bad credit history can obtain house loans at relatively better rates. It doesn’t imply that the interest rates are low, but rather they don’t have to go through the rigors they would face due to their poor credit rating. Since the US is the largest...
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...“Recession” was the subprime mortgages; known as the “mortgage mess”. A few years earlier the substantial boom of the housing market led to the uprising of mortgage loans. Because interest rates were low, investors took advantage of the low rates to buy homes that they could in return ‘flip’ (reselling) and homeowners bought homes that they typically wouldn’t have been able to afford. High interest rates usually keep people from borrowing money because it limits the amount available to use for an investment. But the creation of the subprime mortgage opened a new door for those looking to accomplish the “American dream”. “Since, 1998 more than 7 million borrowers bought homes with Sub-prime loans. One million of those homeowners have already defaulted on their loans (Atlas , 2007). The of Rise Subprime Lending There are two types of mortgages in the U.S.: fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs), which allow a fixed amount of interest for the duration of the loan, and the adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) are loans with variable interest rates. Subprime mortgages are a combination of both FRMs and ARMs, because they provide for a fixed rate for the first 2-3 years as “teaser-rate”, following this period the interest rate becomes adjustable semi-annually (Kirk). Subprime mortgage is a type of mortgage that is normally made out to borrowers with lower credit ratings (often below 600), who, as a result of their deficient credit rating, would not be able to qualify for conventional mortgages. These...
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...being denied loans for mortgages and college tuition. After the nine-day U.S. stock market plunge, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had some sobering words: “Intensifying solvency concerns about a number of the largest U.S.-based and European financial institutions have pushed the global financial system to the brink of systemic meltdown.” It has been maintained that huge economy inequalities coupled with low rate of profit in the US economy contributed to an increased capital flow to the financial sector and the increasing provision of credit to US workers whose real incomes had declined. Under auspices of financial innovations, debt was sold in complex new financial products to investors. Cheap and apparently riskless lending drove the rising leverage of investments. ‘Securitization’ helped to spread the risks to global financial markets and deficient government regulation facilitated these developments. A huge asset bubble developed in the US housing sector and burst as a result of high interest rate. Consequently, the world witnessed massive waves of defaults, institutional insolvency and a severe credit crunch. Introduction The global financial crisis led to the collapse of large financial institution, bailout of banks...
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...It all began in 2001 and 2002 when the Bush administration changed laws on how and to whom banks could lend money for large purchases. This widened to pool of people who could get a loan. At that time, a change was also made on how mortgages were viewed financially. Essentially the value of the mortgage and the property didn’t match. So banks began to lend billions of dollars in sub-prime mortgages. These assets were being loaned at the expense of the borrower. Big investment firms such as Merrill Linch and Lehman Brothers invested heavily in these sub-prime mortgages. Of course the borrowers weren’t able to pay back their loans and as a result the mortgages defaulted. Now in large transactions such as these mortgages, insurance is provided. At the time, most of this insurance was being provided by AIG. Eventually, AIG ran out of funds to support these expenses but still had money to pay out. These were the biggest events that lead towards the global credit crisis. 2. The immediate effects, or evidence that a Global Economic Crisis existed There were immediate signs showing that the global economic crisis truly took place. All the big banks and corporations believing they couldn’t fail, did, which lead to the economy taking a big hit. To begin with, investors lost unbelievable amounts of money on bank and corporation stocks. The same companies saw a big drop in income, prompting them to lay-off many employees. Therefore a lot less of their products or services were distributed...
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...two weeks of October, 2008, accelerating the downward trend that started at the beginning of the year. As a consequence, from New York to Moscow, and London to Sao Paulo, equity prices have fallen sharply – with the major stock indices of the G7 and BRICs losing nearly half of their value since the beginning of the year. This has seriously damaged banks’ balance sheets and restricted their lending capacity. With the cost of short-term credit rising dramatically and liquidity drying up, these events have been dubbed the worst financial meltdown since the Great Depression in 1930s. More importantly, the shock waves from the US financial market have spread throughout the globe, with many countries on the brink of recession (see Figure 1, Appendix). How did a “house fire” in America turn into a global banking crisis? Sub-prime mortgages are a financial innovation designed to provide home ownership opportunities to borrowers in the U.S. with a higher risk profile (such as borrowers with low incomes, bad credit histories or limited disposable income). Most of the sub-prime mortgages were given out on a variable interest-rate basis, with the risk of potentially large adjustments to monthly payments if interest rates rose. Instruments of this nature increase the probability of foreclosure. Institutions (lenders) were “easy” with credit regarding these mortgages under the assumption that housing prices would continue to appreciate in value. Even if some of...
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...prices, so the value of properties begins to come down, sometimes rapidly. Definition of a Housing Bubble * A "housing bubble" is a cyclical economic event where high trade volumes inflate prices, which ultimately become unsustainable, causing a lowering, or "crash" in values. Economic bubbles may be called by a variety of terms, including a speculative bubble, a market bubble or a balloon. Economic cycles of this nature are not exclusive to real estate. They have occurred throughout history in a variety of markets, including stocks, tulips and pottery. Contributing Factors to Unstable Housing Conditions * It could be argued that a housing bubble is really an example of a credit bubble. Although real estate is the underlying commodity, most house buyers use credit -- in the form of a mortgage -- to secure the property. Lax lending guidelines, rapidly inflating values, speculative buyers and the use of adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs), which can adjust to higher rates, are all factors in accelerating the likelihood of borrowers defaulting on their loans. The Effect a Housing Bubble Has on Local Markets * Tighter credit is likely to result after a housing bubble bursts; and although the effects following the downturn may have a broad effect on consumer purchasing power, the depth and duration of the housing bubble effects will vary drastically in local real estate markets. Factors such as location, social trends, local...
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...financial system is affected. ABSTRACT The global financial crisis, brewing for a while, really started to show its effects in the middle of 2007 and into 2008. Around the world stock markets have fallen, large financial institutions have collapsed or been bought out, and governments in even the wealthiest nations have had to come up with rescue packages to bail out their financial systems. On the one hand many people are concerned that those responsible for the financial problems are the ones being bailed out, while on the other hand, a global financial meltdown will affect the livelihoods of almost everyone in an increasingly inter-connected world. The problem could have been avoided, if ideologues supporting the current economics models weren’t so vocal, influential and inconsiderate of others’ viewpoints and concerns. Following a period of economic boom, a financial bubble—global in scope—has now burst. A collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage market and the reversal of the housing boom in other industrialized economies have had a ripple effect around the world. Furthermore, other weaknesses in the global financial system have surfaced. Some financial products and instruments have become so complex and twisted, that as things start to unravel, trust in the whole system started to fail. This study is focus on financial /economic crisis and its effect on the Indian economy and government policies and Indian financial service industry this paper attempts an analysis of...
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