...Note : Define assumptions Dividend valuation model (DDM • CAPM • estimate beta adjust using appropriate methodology • Justify proxies used for the risk-free rate and the market portfolio. Indicate any advantages or disadvantages if there are any. • estimation of the expected market risk premium • Free cash flow to equity model • Price/Earnings Ratio model • Price/Book Value Ratio model • Net tangible asset backing model Equity Risk Premium: • Use historical returns, with the difference in annual returns on stocks and bonds over a long time period comprising the expected risk premium, looking forward. • Assume that expected return on the market portfolio is related to a Macroeconomic variable, e.g., GDP. Then use the expected changes in the macroeconomic variable, with appropriate probabilities to estimate expected return on the market portfolio. Subtract the RFR from the expected return estimated and arrive at your equity risk premium. Don’t forget to multiply this by the beta value. • Implied equity premium. This assumes that the overall market is correctly priced. The valuation model suggests value equals: Value = Expected Dividends Next Period/ (Required Return on Equity - Expected Growth Rate) This is the present value of dividends growing at a constant...
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...The equity risk premium is the "extra return" that investors collectively demand for investing their money in stocks instead of holding it in a risk less or close to risk less investment. As a consequence, equity risk premium reflects both investor hopes and fears about stocks, rising as the fear factor increases. As a measure the equity risk premium can be an individual stock or the overall stock market provides over a risk-free rate. And the size of the premium will be a standard to compensate with a higher premium in the stock market. Thus, a portfolio manager when the equity risk premium increases in the future， the investors will sell out stock market because the stocks are over priced. So the legislators and pension administrators decide how much to set aside to meet future pension obligations, based upon assessments of equity risk premiums. However the history data of ERP (Equity Risk Premium) from Federal Reserve System shows it keeps low and stable state but increases suddenly since 2006. At the same time the Federal Funds Effective Rate goes down and keeps low state. We know that interest rate is a way to control inflation. Inflation is a factor causes too much money chasing too few goods. “Changes in the federal funds rate affect the behavior of consumers and businesses, but the stock market is also affected,” Said by Jim Mueller (2013), PhD Finance in Washington State University. “As the risk-free rate goes up, the total return required for...
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...Appendix VALUATI O N Comparable companies analysis 74 VAIDYA NATHAN 1 Overview “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get” VALUATI O N O V E R VI EW Value ! Price Do not confuse Price and Value. They are not the same If the Price paid is less than the Value derived, it’s a good investment VAIDYA NATHAN 2 Overview Why valuation is important? Divestitures Acquisitions How much should we pay to buy the company? How much should we sell our company/division for? Fairness opinions Research Is the price offered for our company/division fair (from a financial point of view)? Should our clients buy, sell or hold positions in a given security? Valuation Public equity offerings Hostile defense For how much should we sell our company/division in the public market? Is our company undervalued/vulnerable to a raider VALUATI O N O V E R VI EW Debt offerings New business presentations Various applications What is the underlying value of the business/assets against which debt is being issued? VAIDYA NATHAN 3 Overview The valuation process Determining a final valuation recommendation is a process of triangulation using insight from each of the relevant valuation methodologies (1) Discounted Cash Flow VALUATI O N O V E R VI EW Analyzes the present value of a company's free cash flow. (3) Comparable Acquisition Transactions Utilizes data from M&A transactions ...
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...fully reflect the fundamental value of the company, or extreme market volatility may cause deviation from intrinsic value, and an entire industry could be undervalued or overvalued as a result. Precedent transaction analysis determines the values offered in past acquisitions of similar companies and determines the pricing associated with past deals as compared to the target’s financial performance and current market value. The pro is that comparable transactions reflect reality as it has occurred in the past. This method gives you an accurate sense of how past transactions were successfully completed at certain premiums, which indicates a range of plausible premiums. Trends such as consolidating acquisitions, foreign purchasers or financial purchases become clearer. The cons are that past transactions are rarely comparable, precedent transactions include a purchase premium, and public data on past transactions can be misleading or non-existent. Leverage acquisition (LBO), or recapitalization analysis was used to model Wynn’s financial performance under an initially high leveraged capital...
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...Preface Let me begin this preface with a confession of a few of my own biases. First, I believe that theory and the models that flow from it should provide the tools to understand, analyze, and solve problems. The test of a model or theory then should not be based on its elegance but on its usefulness in problem solving. Second, there is little in corporate financial theory that is new and revolutionary. The core principles of corporate finance are common sense and have changed little over time. That should not be surprising. Corporate finance is only a few decades old, and people have been running businesses for thousands of years; it would be exceedingly presumptuous of us to believe that they were in the dark until corporate finance theorists came along and told them what to do. To be fair, it is true that corporate financial theory has made advances in taking commonsense principles and providing structure, but these advances have been primarily on the details. The story line in corporate finance has remained remarkably consistent over time. Talking about story lines allows me to set the first theme of this book. This book tells a story, which essentially summarizes the corporate finance view of the world. It classifies all decisions made by any business into three groups—decisions on where to invest the resources or funds that the business has raised, either internally or externally (the investment decision), decisions on where and how to raise funds to finance...
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...to continue its strong growth (although below expectations) through a combination of recovering market conditions, a new era of smart products and with official interest rates likely to be placed on hold by the RBA until the end of 2011. (A) CHOICE OF MODELS ------------------------------------------------- 1. Discount Models Why FCFF Discount Model? DDM would not be a suitable model because JBH paid dividends which are significantly greater than or lower than FCFE to the firm between 2006 and 2010 thereby underestimating or overestimating the value of JBH (dividends less than 80% of FCFE or greater than 110% FCFE) . The debt to equity ratio has been volatile declining from 82.90% in 2003 to 23.73% in 2010 with a spike of 120.96% in 2006. Estimating future debt issues and repayments will prove to be difficult given that changes are expected because JBH has raised their senior debt facility by $105 million expiring by 2014 possibly to finance the roll out of up to 193 new stores by 2014 as well. The recent stock repurchases of $173 million and possible future repurchases if JBH continues to accumulate cash, will also have significant impacts on leverage. FCFF will certainly be the most appropriate model to apply since debt is not directly considered in determining the cash flow whereas in the FCFE model, the value of net debt issued must be backed out. Furthermore, FCFF refers to cash flows available to investors so recent stock repurchase of $173...
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...impression on the reader. Ethics of project writings: Project writing has some ethics which must have to be followed by the writer in order to make a professional project. Emphasis on these ethics will make you learn how to write a project in a professional manner. Ethics of project writing include making a main page, writing a preface, giving an acknowledgement, making a table of contents, putting executive summary, giving an introduction to the project, mentioning the contents of the project, concluding it, including all the tables and annexure, and finally writing a bibliography. What this project involves: The idea is to concentrate on doing a full analysis of one firm. Since I suspect that you may have other courses or jobs, what is required here is somewhat less than a full analytical workup. You will be applying some of the financial principles we have discussed in class. A comprehensive outline is given below to make the project. 1. Select a company of your choice as a first step and apply principles that are mentioned below. (I understand that some data will not be available for the firms. However, you have to assume missing figures based on your understanding and our class discussions.) FIRM COMPARABILITY: Data on a firm all by itself is not very revealing – the data needs to be related to other firms. But the other firms must be similar to the subject firm. The good news is that here we are not making any comparisons; rather we are going to focus on one firm...
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...Investment Banking Valuation, Leveraged Buyouts, and Mergers & Acquisitions JOSHUA ROSENBAUM JOSHUA PEARL FOREWORD BY JOSEPH R. PERELLA Investment Banking Founded in 1807, John Wiley & Sons is the oldest independent publishing company in the United States. With offices in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia, Wiley is globally committed to developing and marketing print and electronic products and services for our customers’ professional and personal knowledge and understanding. The Wiley Finance series contains books written specifically for finance and investment professionals as well as sophisticated individual investors and their financial advisors. Book topics range from portfolio management to e-commerce, risk management, financial engineering, valuation, and financial instrument analysis, as well as much more. For a list of available titles, please visit our Web site at www.WileyFinance.com. Investment Banking Valuation, Leveraged Buyouts, and Mergers & Acquisitions JOSHUA ROSENBAUM JOSHUA PEARL John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Copyright C 2009 by Joshua Rosenbaum and Joshua Pearl. All rights reserved. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey. Published simultaneously in Canada. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976...
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...UV0402 Rev. Apr. 8, 2014 APPLYING THE CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL This note discusses how some of the most financially sophisticated companies and financial advisers estimate the cost of equity capital. We particularly focus on areas where finance theory is silent or ambiguous, and practitioners are left to their own devices. Conclusions are based on interviews with two groups: (1) well-regarded firms ranked by peer companies as industry leaders and (2) a sample of 11 of the most active financial advisers (investment banks). For context on academic advice, we also cite recommendations from topselling graduate-level textbooks and trade books in corporate finance.1 Findings The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is the dominant model for estimating the cost of equity, with over 90% of firms and all the financial advisers employing this model. Moreover firms and advisers seldom mentioned other asset-pricing models. Yet disagreements exist on how to apply the CAPM. The CAPM states that the required return (R) on any asset can be expressed as Equation 1: R = R f + ( Rm - R f ) (1) 1 Survey evidence and much of the discussion is adapted from T. Brotherson, K. Eades, R. Harris, and R. Higgins, “‘Best Practices’ in Estimating the Cost of Capital: An Update,” Journal of Applied Finance 23, no. 1 (2013), which is an update of an earlier article: R. Bruner, K. Eades, R. Harris, and R. Higgins, “‘Best Practices’ in Estimating the Cost of Capital: Survey and...
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...acct 1511 notes Chapter 6 – Financial Reporting Principles, Accounting Standards and Auditing 6.2 Accounting Principles and the use of Accounting Information Doing accounting takes expert knowledge, considerable experience and continuous attention to new problems and solutions. Concepts and principles are important, as they form logical structure that practising accountants use every day to consider problems to make recommendations GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) applied differently for different entities Rules, standards and usual practices that companies are expected to follow when preparing financial statements Stock market crash of 1929 brought GAAP AASB (Aust Accounting Standards Board) IASB (International Accounting Standards Board) AASB uses IASB as foundation, but includes more details applicable to Aust environment SACS – Statement of Accounting concepts SAVS established for general concepts and principles to be used in preparing financial statements SAC 1 – Definition of a Reporting Entity SAC 2 – Objective of General Purpose Financial Reporting SAC 3 – Qualitative Characteristics of Financial Information SAC 4 – Definition and Recognition of the Elements of Financial Statements Now, SAC 3 and SAC 4 is replaced with “Framework for Preparation and Presentation of Financial Statements” FYI: Difficulties that face accounting and managers by GAAP Difference in company structures – e.g. ABC = not for profit, publicly...
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...Because a corporation is assumed to have infinite life, the analysis is broken into two parts: a forecast period and a terminal value. In the forecast period, explicit forecasts of free cash flow that incorporate the economic costs and benefits of the transaction must be developed. Ideally, the forecast period should comprise the interval over which the firm is in a transitional state, as when enjoying a temporary competitive advantage (i.e., the circumstances where expected returns exceed required returns). In most circumstances, a forecast period of five or ten years is used. No The terminal value of the company, derived from free cash flows occurring after the forecast period, is estimated in the last year of the forecast period and capitalizes the present value of all future cash flows beyond the forecast period. To estimate the terminal value, cash flows are projected under a steady-state assumption that the firm enjoys no opportunities for abnormal growth or that expected returns equal required returns following the forecast period. Once a schedule of free cash flows is developed for the enterprise, the weighted average cost of 1 Do This note focuses on...
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...based on market evidence, but it is not a market result itself. • In some cases, the asset is not traded in an active market or exchange. e.g., privately held companies, real estate. Here, the concept of value may be different, depending on the type of valuation. (e.g., valuation for tax vs valuation for listing) • In other cases, the asset is traded in an active market or exchange. Here, you must provide a reason why the market value does to represent the ‘correct value’ for the purchaser. e.g., listed companies Valuation methods Method Comparable Companies DCF Cash Flows Accounting Risk Adjustment Prevailing market evidence Expected CFs Expected CFs RADR Separate RADR for different classes of CFs Separate RADR for different risk classes of CFs Risk free Complexity Adjusted DCF Sum of the Parts Expected CFs Certainty Equivalence Risk adjusted Use Steps in Comparable Company Analysis 1. Select Universe of Comparable Companies 2. Locate Necessary Financial Information 3. Determine Key Statistics, Ratios and Trading Multiples 4. Benchmark the Comparable Companies 5. Determine Valuations Step 1: Select Universe of Comparable Companies • What is a comparable company? You are looking for a company that similar to the company being valued in an number of dimensions and for which you have an unbiased estimate of value. You will adjust the unbiased estimate of value for the comparable company to reflect differences between the company...
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...Myopic loss aversion, disappointment aversion, and the equity premium puzzleଝ David Fielding a , Livio Stracca b,∗ b a Department of Economics, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand European Central Bank (ECB), Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany Received 7 March 2003; accepted 5 July 2005 Available online 24 May 2006 Abstract This paper takes a close look at the “behavioural finance” explanations of the equity premium puzzle, namely myopic loss aversion [Benartzi, S., Thaler, R.H.,1995. Myopic loss aversion and the equity premium puzzle. Quarterly Journal of Economics 110, 73–92] and disappointment aversion [Ang, A., Bekaert, G., Liu, J., 2005. Why stocks may disappoint. Journal of Financial Economics 76, 471–508]. The paper proposes a simple specification of loss and disappointment aversion and brings these theories to the data. The main conclusion is that a highly short-sighted investment horizon is required for the historical equity premium to be explained by loss aversion, while reasonable values for disappointment aversion are found also for long investment horizons; stocks may not only lose in the short term, but also disappoint in the long term. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: G11; G12 Keywords: Myopic loss aversion; Disappointment aversion; Equity premium puzzle; Investment horizon; Reference dependence 1. Introduction The equity premium puzzle introduced by Mehra and Prescott (1985) is still...
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...VALUATION AND ACQUSITION VALUATION AND ACQUISITION OF “TARGET COMPANY” LIMITED BY “INVESTOR” LIMITED BY: AKINTOYE AKINDELE DBA PROGRAM INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT DECEMBER 2011 INTRODUCTION CONTEXT This report reviews the investment/acquisition rationale, valuation (assumptions and methodology), negotiation and post acquisition events of the acquisition of 100 percent of the equity of “Target Company” limited by “Investor” Limited. While the names of acquiring and selling companies have been changed to Investor Limited and Target Company limited respectively for confidential reasons, the information and events here are factual and all the exhibits represent actual financial information of both companies especially Target Limited. BACKGROUND & BUSINESS OVERVIEW OF TARGET Target Limited is an aluminium continuous casting and cold rolling mill located in Ghana. The company was set up to implement the fourth processing leg of the proposed integrated aluminium industry for Ghana which comprised; bauxite mining – First leg, refining bauxite into alumina – Second leg, smelting alumina into raw aluminium ingots – Third leg and processing the ingots into flat rolled product – Fourth leg and Target’s business. The company was incorporated as a private company and granted license to commence business on 24th February, 1978 and 22nd March, 1978 respectively. Target was later converted into a public company on 28th May, 1996 and was listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange...
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...trading not have a positive NPV. Semi Strong Weak plus - all publicly available info (i.e. rapid reaction time = can’t make money on the news) Test 1: active mgt funds in general perform worse than mkt. If info is already reflected in prices, extra costs of research & transaction of actively mgd fund vs tracker fund, incurred in vain Test 2: Study cumulative abnormal returns over time. Results show that info gets incorporated immediately (immediately rise (or fall) of prices), and starts to get incorporated before (insider’s info) Strong Semi Strong plus info NOT publicly available (inside info) Test: (Test 2 for semi), shows that there is insider’s trading or info leakage, also regulation Implications of mkt efficiency: - Expected return on a stock is exactly the one to compensate investors for the risk that they absorb (calculated using CAPM). There are no financial projects with positive NPV. - Different choices of accounting practices have no impact on stock prices if they have no impact on cash flows α = how much average stock price changed when mkt index Unchanged β = how much EXTRA the stock price moved for each 1 % change in mkt index...
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