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Global World

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Submitted By sebastian15
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Samfundsfag

06 – 09 - 2013

Undersøg, hvad der af meterialet i bilag B1 kan udledes om udviklingen i Danmarks konkurrenceevne.
Ser man på resultatet af Danmarks betalingsbalances poster, har der i mange år været et betydeligt overskud her, hvilket betyder, at landet eksporterer flere varer og tjenesteydelser samt modtager andet kapital i form af eksempelvis renter og overførsler fra EU end landet importerer. Dette ses i tabel 1 herunder, hvor udviklingen på betalingsbalancens løbende poster er vist i årrækken 20002010.

Konkurrenceevnens kortsigtede resultat skyldes at betalingsbalancens overskud stiger, hvilket fra Danmarks synspunkt er meget positivt. Vi er på ti år gået fra et overskud på 18,2 milliarder til 95,9 milliarder kroner, hvilket er en smule paradoksalt. Det stærkt stigende overskud fra 2008 til 2010 på betalingsbalancens løbende poster er en god indikation for Danmarks konkurrenceevne, da varer og tjenesteydelser i tilfredsstillende grad afsættes i udlandet, hvormed den danske økonomi tilføres kapital. Hvis man analysere tabel 2, er der et udtryk for en svagere konkurrenceevne i Danmark. Dette skyldes, at Danmarks markedsandel i Tyskland, er faldet 23 % på kun ti år. I ni ud af de ti landes øvrige største eksportmarkeder, er Danmarks markedsandel faldende. Det bemærkelsesværdige i lige netop denne tabel, er at den danske økonomi er bedre globalt end indenfor EU. Dette er dog stadig en svækkelse af Danmarks konkurrence evne, over de sidste 10 år. Det skal dog også nævnes, at tabellen ikke udgør hvordan Danmarks konkurrenceevne udvikling er.

Sebastian Bastholm Andersen

Samfundsfag

06 – 09 - 2013

Figur 1 viser konkurrenceevne og andel af befolkningen i alderen 25-64 år med længere videregående uddannelse. Der er brugt regression til at vise at Konkurrenceevne stiger i takt med andelen af lang videregående individer. Målt fra 1 – 7. R2 værdien viser 0,5155 hvilket er en forklaringsgrad, da 0,5 inden for samfundsfag ikke er en stor spredning. R2 værdien viser at der er andre faktorer der spiller ind fordi lande som Tyskland der har færre procent del med en længere gående uddannelse ligger højere end Danmark. Det kan konkluderes med udgangspunkt i materialet i bilag B1, at Danmarks konkurrenceevne de sidste 10 år er svækket, når man blandt andet ser på arbejdsomkostningerne pr. time for industriarbejdere i Danmark, der er 50 % højere end det gennemsnitlige i OECD landene. Dette skyldes, at de danske lønstigninger i perioden 2001-2008 konsekvent har været højere end gennemsnittet af lønstigninger. I nogenlunde samme årrække 2000-2010 er de danske markedsandele i 9 ud af 10 af landets stør-ste eksportmarkeder desuden svundet ind, hvilket også indikerer en svækket dansk konkurrenceevne, hvilket blandt andet kommer til udtryk i Tyskland, hvor den danske andel af den tyske import på 10 år er faldet med 23 %. Dog er overskuddet på betalingsbalancens løbende poster vedholdende stort, men da dette også påvirkes af en svag hjemlig efterspørgsel, kan det ikke entydigt dementere en faldende dansk konkurrenceevne de seneste 10 år.

Sebastian Bastholm Andersen

Samfundsfag

06 – 09 - 2013

Diskuter, hvilke fordele og ulemper der er forbundet med at gennemføre DI’s adm. Direktør Karsten Dybvads forslag.
Den administrerende direktør i DI, Karsten Dybvad, søger en stor politisk opbakning i Folketinget. Dette gør han, for at skabe 175.000 arbejdspladser, som blev tabt under krisen. Han har fire ideer / ønsker om lønningsforslag. Forslagene indebærer, at skattetrykket på selskaber og individer skal sænkes, der skal investeres meget mere i uddannelse og forskning, Danmark skal være et åbent land for kvalificerede udlændinge samt at der skal være styr på budgetterne i det offentlige med en målsætning om at gældssætningen skal stoppes.

En diskussion, som ofte bliver diskuteret, er om skatte i Danmark skal sænkes på individers personlige indkomster og hos erhvervslivet. Skatter i Danmark udgør 86 % (Samfundsstatistikken) af statens indtægter, vil en nedsættelse af skatten harmoneres af andre indtægter eller en offentlig besparelse. Skal skatteniveauet sænkes mærkbart vil det altså betyde offentlige nedskæringer og en eventuel negativ vækst i det offentlige forbrug, hvilket vil koste arbejdspladser og potentielt øge ledigheden, hvis ikke tilsvarende mange arbejdspladser skabes i det private erhvervsliv.

Sænker man skatterne, kan der være en positiv økonomisk effekt, hvis fænomenet multiplikatoren sættes i gang. Hvis staten har tænkt sig at øge udgifterne ved skattelettelser, og fører ekspansiv politik, som anbefales af Keynesianske økonomiske skole i krisetider, som denne, vil husholdningerne få flere penge at bryge og virksomhederne vil have et overskud til mere kapital, som går til investeringer. Dette vil skabe en øget efterspørgsel, der øger BNP’en samt virksomhedernes økonomiske resultater. Det øger beskæftigelsen, som skaber yderligere økonomisk aktivitet i samfundet. Samt en selvforstærkende positiv økonomisk sløjfe i gang, som følge af multiplikatorrunden.

En sænkning af personskatterne mindsker efterspørgslen efter lønstigninger. Hvor en begrænsning i de nominelle indkomststigninger kan styrke virksomhederne konkurrenceevne, så dette også kan

Sebastian Bastholm Andersen

Samfundsfag

06 – 09 - 2013

have en positiv virkning på den danske økonomi.

Karsten Dybvad tilråder også, at den danske stat investerer mere i uddannelse og forskning. Hvis dette skete, ville det forbedre arbejdsstyrken kvalitativt, hvilket også er en essentiel faktor bag den økonomiske vækst. Forbedres kvaliteten af arbejdskraften, vil en arbejder dels kunne producerer mere per tidsenhed og til dels kunne hæve kvaliteten af det producerede produkt, hvor en veluddannet dansk besætning vil være en konkurrencefordel for virksomhederne. Desuden er der i stigende grad efterspørgsel på veluddannet arbejdskraft, så ved at afpudsede samfunds uddannelsesniveau kan ledigheden nedsættes.

At have lettere adgang til kvalificeret arbejdskraft fra udlandet er også noget, Dybdal efterspørger. Kvalificeret og veluddannet arbejdskraft vil som førnævnt være positivt for virksomhederne i Danmark. Dog vil den i forvejen høje arbejdsløshed i Danmark ikke just forbedres af, at arbejdstagere fra udlandet kan besætte de stillinger, der oprettes her i landet. Ved at åbne op for kvalificeret udenlandsk arbejdskraft kan det altså blive sværere for de danske lønmodtagere at få et arbejde.

Det sidste lønningsforslag nævner Dybvad, at der skal være styr på offentlige budgetter, samtidig med, at gældssætningen skal beherskes. Dette er for at skabe en sikret langsigtet stabilitet, omkring tillid til dansk økonomi, som kan ses som et fordelaftigt forhold til blandt andet at have de internationale finansmarkeders støtte.

Dette er naturligvis vigtigt i forhold til at sikre en langsigtet stabilitet omkring og tillid til dansk økonomi, hvilket kan være fordelagtigt i forhold til blandt andet at have de internationale finansmarkeders støtte. Dog kan en bremsning af gældsætningen for enhver pris indebære offentlige nedskæringer og førelsen af en kontraktiv finanspolitik, der ikke er ideel i en krisetid, da det dæmper den i forvejen lave økonomiske aktivitet.

Til sidst kan der konkluders, at der er fordele og ulemper ved Dybvads fire forslag. Det er en god ide, at føre en af Keynes inspireret ekspansiv finanspolitik i den nuværende krise for at sætte gang i økonomien og beskæftigelsen i samfundet ved hjælp af vidunderet multiplikatorrunden. Som Dybvad foreslår indebærer en sænkning af skatten på personer og virksomheder samt yderligere investeringer i uddannelsen og forskningen til fordel for virksomhedernes konkurrenceevne.

Sebastian Bastholm Andersen

Samfundsfag

06 – 09 - 2013

Der kan altså konkluderes, at der er flere fordele og ulemper ved Dybvads fire løsningsforslag. Først og fremmest er det en god idé at føre en af Keynes inspireret ekspansiv finanspolitik i den igangværende krise for at sætte gang i økonomien og beskæftigelsen i samfundet ved hjælp af multiplikatorrunden. Dette kan som Dybvad foreslår indebære en sænkning af skattetrykket på personer og virksomheder samt yderligere investeringer i uddannelse og forskning til fordel for virksomhedernes konkurrenceevne. Til sidst vil en målsætning om offentlige finanser i balance samt lav eller ingen udlands og statsgæld være med til at skabe grobund for en langsigtet, sund økonomisk udvikling i Danmark om end en plan om den strukturelle balance ikke skal effektueres ved førelsen af en kontraktiv finanspolitik under den igangværende lavkonjunktur, da dette kun vil hæmme den økonomiske aktivitet, der i forvejen er lav.

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