...THE B L A C K SWAN The HIGHLY I mpact IM of the PROBABLE Nassim Nicholas Taleb U.S.A. $26.95 Canada $34.95 is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpre dictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9 / 1 1 . For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. A BLACK SWAN Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate oppor tunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool our selves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this reve latory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers...
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...1. The types of market research that Kiki should employ to determine the market potential for the magazine include using various primary and secondary research methods. Kiki Magazine has a magazine that targets the 9-to 14-year-old female market segment. Kiki magazine hopes to guide the young readers to acquire her own sense of style that directly mirrors her personality. Kiki magazine also tries to help tweens be comfortable in her own skin, and develop confidence from her own unique style. In order to determine the market potential for magazine, there needs to be a lot of data collected along with time and effort put into the research. In order to make sure that the marketing is effective, the magazine company will need to use a variety of research methods and develop a strategic plan. What I would do to help the magazine analyze the potential would be to look into what tweens are interested in right now. Looking to see what the girls watch on television such as Disney network, or where these kids shop at in the mall can give away a lot of information. The magazine should then try to incorporate what these interests are into the reading material, which will be presented to these girls. There are internal environmental factors that the company needs to consider which include the marketing mix model. This includes the 4 P’s, which are price, promotion, product and place. The external environmental factors that the company needs to consider would be taking a look at the competitors...
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...Kiki Smith’s artwork Match Girl uses many elements of art and principles of design used together on this one artwork that makes it come alive such as focal points, contrast, various lines, the dark color of her skin, and light-to-dark values. Focal point on the figures face was established by how much larger and brighter it is than the rest of the girl’s figure along with how her big white eyeballs contrasted with the rest of the dark colored figure in the artwork to draw attention to the girl’s sad emotional face and seemingly puffy eyes. Another element of art would be the various lines used to create everything in the artwork such as, the outline of her head, clothes, hand and the details of her face, that give not only a contribution...
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...Internet and Identity Sabrina Rubin Erdely wrote the article “Kiki Kannibal: The Girl Who Played With Fire," which was published in Rolling Stones. Kristen Ostrenga was from Coral Springs, Florida. She created the name Kiki Kannibal for herself and for her Myspace, Youtube, and StickCam followers. Kiki changed and began wearing heavy makeup, posting scandalous pictures, and showing a different side of herself. She quickly became an internet sensation, but not how she thought. Kenji Yoshino is the Chief Justice Earl Warren Professor of Constitutional Law at New York University. He wrote Covering: The Hidden Assault on Our Civil Rights. Yoshino covered that he was a gay Asian American man. An individuals ability to recreate themselves online...
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...The internet was made to form connection between people and bridge opposing sides of the world together. While discussing and comparing Sabrina Rubin Erdely’s article “Kiki Kannibal: The Girl Who Played with Fire” and Rachael Kadish’s article “Who is this man,...
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...problems that I can analyzed. Firstly, Kiki and Houida which are two of major loyal customers of Couture Fashions Bhd (HCF)’s were writing to Jeffrey to inform him that they may looking to China to “contract manufacture” for them as the prices there were very competitive. Second, the previous adverse perception of “Made in China” labels had slowly changed as China now manufactured clothes that are higher quality at substantially lower operating costs. There were some recommendation that are going to implemented which are proposal to expand to China, proposal to close down HCF’s factories in Malaysia and Thailand or manufacturing its own label for Malaysian and Asean market. Statement of Problems HCF may lose their big major loyal customers which is Kiki and Houida as they may looking to China to “contract manufacture” for them as the prices there is cheaper. Apart from that, nowadays China was produce high quality product with cheaper price so then makes the perception of people about the “made in China” goods changed to a good view. This is because of the labour cost in China is cheaper rather than Malaysia. HCF now is very confusing to make decision but based on the problems they have to make accurate decision. According to these problems they have to deeply make consideration of their short term and long terms decision. As far as I am concerned, the short term problem is HCF may lose their big major loyal customers which is Kiki and Houida. For long term, they may face...
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...begins with her first time embarking on a borrowing expedition with her father to obtain essential household items and food. This is a clear signal of growing up and marks a new stage in Arrietty’s life. Arrietty also has a strong emphasis on relationships; it could be said that a person’s mentality and character in the story depend on how connected they feel with other people. Hara, the scheming maid, has no positive relationships with others; she is the villain of the story. It is by forming a relationship with Arrietty that Sho, a sickly human boy, finds his will to live. In Kiki’s Delivery Service, Kiki has just turned 13 when she sets off on a journey all by herself to a distant city. Through her delivery service, she encounters all sorts of different characters. The story revolves around the different people she meets and her interactions with them. Near the end of the movie, Kiki loses faith in herself and loses her powers; she needs to find her true identity to rediscover those powers. Finally, Wolf Children follows Hana through thirteen years of her life. Even though she is an older character, the film still shows how she changes and grows as well as how her children grow up in different ways, choosing their own paths. Wolf Children has a great emphasis on family relationships and familial love. All these themes are important to children who are just starting to figure out who they are and starting to build relationships with others, but they can apply to those of any...
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...challenges I’ve met was to enter Marathon in 2012. I made a hard decision to take part in this big match. Starr and Kiki, who understood me very well, decided to join me. We were not well-trained runners, with almost no experience of long-distance running. Everything appeared to be a dream; we did not imagine that we could overcome it. All in all, this special experience made me more perseverant. It is true that you have trillions of choice to attend one sport event, and the reason why I choose the Marathon was kind of special. Not only simply because it was challenging but also because it was set in my lovely hometown, Chongqing. Chongqing, which has a meaning of “double celebrations” in Chinese, is in the south of China and has a population of 31 million. I was born there, and I lived in Chongqing for nearly 20 years. For me, Chongqing is like a lovely mother with whom I am emotionally involved. I could not think of anyone more appropriate than her to witness this challenge for me. Like mellow wine, friendship has a magical fragrance that is addicting, and the friendship between Starr, Kiki and me was no exception. They are the best people I’ve ever met. Starr was talkative and she had a good sense of humor. Every time I got in trouble, she talked with me and did whatever she could think of to make me laugh. In comparison to Starr, Kiki was more of a good listener. Kiki was a big fan of art and literature. She sent her favorite poem collection, the Birds, written by Tagore, to...
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...Keiko McDonald states that "unity with nature, for instance, has long been considered some portion of the Japanese national character" and that "by 1988, folks had motivation to be worried that their youngsters were putting some distance between nature. Urban sprawl was simply to blame." In the wake of losing her forces, Kiki likewise moves out of the city, which is about without foliage, to live for a day in the timberland with Ursula, a companion she made amid one of her conveyances. It is in nature that Kiki can recuperate and 'get herself'. It obviously bodes well that Kiki's unique home is likewise in the wide open, near nature. The exhortation that Ursula gives Kiki is to "Take long strolls, take a gander at the view, rest off at twelve." when she can't fly are all near nature also. Ultimately, another way that Miyazaki evaluates innovation through Kiki's is through the depiction of innovation and its correlation to the old routes as innovation is a basic piece of...
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...I really enjoyed this lap reading time with the children in the daycare. The girl that I read to was Kiki and at first she was a little shy. She didn’t want me to read her any books, because she missed her mom. My response to that was that her mom will be back soon and by reading with me it would make the time go by faster. I spread all of the books that I brought out on the floor and then she started looking at a Dr. Seuss book. Kiki was around 3 or 4 years old. She was very attentive to the stories I read and wanted to turn the pages. While reading something in the book it sparked a memory in her head so she would have to tell me about that memory. Kiki was very interested in books that had cats in them or even any animal at all. Her favorite...
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...and Naturalistic Zoo Environment, both discuss the scientific discovery and the effects on gorillas in different type of cages by using emotion and credibility so their readers will understand. In both the radiolab segment and the article, the main idea is to inform their readers about the health effects and the happiness of gorillas in cement cages, they both approached it differently. In the radiolab, the speakers introduce the subject and explain an experiment that scientist tried in Woodland Park Zoo. It all started when they started to notice a gorilla named Kiki mood change; as a result they decided to build a new cage for her. These scientists spent months building a new cage, for the gorilla, that was outside and in a natural environment. They ripped up all the cement and brought in grass and trees. Before they put Kiki in the cage they added toys and other things so she had something to play with. When Kiki entered the cage she first showed anger but then showed that she was happy where she was. They then explained another project done by other scientist which was, making a gorilla fight for food in different type cages with different types of monkeys. They did this by splitting up three cages, a low, middle and high class cages. They determined with their scientific research that these primates were happier when they had to fight for their food or when their cages had grass and trees, like they were in the wild. In the article, with the main idea being the same thing...
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...und sah zu dem anderen Bett hinüber. „Philipp, darf ich Kiki reinlassen? Seine Stimme klingt so traurig.“ „Wenn er nicht zu viel Krach macht, kann er meinetwegen reinkommen. Jetzt tut mir der Kopf nicht mehr so furchtbar weh.“ Jack stieg aus dem Bett und stakste etwas unsicher zur Tür. Die Kinder hatten Grippe gehabt und fühlten sich noch sehr schwach. Philipp war besonders schwer krank gewesen. Er hatte den lebhaften Papagei Kiki nicht im Zimmer ertragen können. So tierlieb er auch war, hätte er ihm am liebsten Pantoffeln, Bücher oder was sonst noch greifbar war an den Kopf geworfen. Jetzt watschelte Kiki mit gesenktem Kopf ins Zimmer. „Komm rein, mein armer Kerl“, sagte Jack mitleidig, und sofort flog ihm der Papagei auf die Schulter. „Du verstehst es natürlich nicht, warum wir dich rausgeschmissen haben. Aber wenn einem fast der Kopf zerspringt, ist Lärm nicht gerade angenehm. Philipp ist fast verrückt geworden, als du neulich den spuckenden Motor nachmachtest.“ 3 „Hör bloß auf!“ Philipp schauderte in Erinnerung an den entsetzlichen Lärm. „Ich glaube, ich werde nie mehr über Kiki lachen können.“ Er hustete und zog sein Taschentuch unter dem Kopfkissen hervor. Kiki hustete ebenfalls, aber nur gedämpft. Jack lächelte. „Tu nicht so, als ob du auch Grippe hättest, Kiki. Das glaubt dir doch keiner.“ „Grippe“, wiederholte Kiki. „Grippe! Wisch dir die Grippe ab!“ Dann lachte er leise. „Hör mal, Kiki, wir sind noch nicht gesund genug für deine Witze.“ Jack...
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...Mark Nowatnick ENC 1101-24 Peter Zuppardo Essay November 21, 2014 How We Act Behind Close Curtains Many of us act a different way when we are behind something that no one can truly see us. I relate Vanderbilt’s article and Kiki article on how they misuse the new technology. In the Kiki essay she was posting pictures of herself online and no one really knew who it was, until some people hacked into her page. Even when she was posting pictures and video of herself which made people comment nasty things talking about her. If those people that comment mean things talking about her where not just a profile and was someone face to face we usually wouldn't say things like that. Also in the Vanderbilt’s essay he talks about the road rage and the different types of communication while driving. Many people while driving get very upset with other drivers if they need to be somewhere quickly, or even if the person is driving slower then they want to drive, which cause the person that is behind the person that is going slow to speed up and cut them off. I have seen a lot of incidents where people cut someone off and they want to get pay back on they so they try to cut them off back, then it turns into an accident. Citizens do not understand how dangerous cars and truck are when we are behind the wheel, they can hurt someone very badly plus even kill them. We as people need to understand that our ethical compilations need to help us from being cyborgs, to understand that we have to...
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...THEORIES ON THE ORIGIN AND EVOLUTION OF LANGUAGE Research Report for WR227 Jeremy Byrd Winter Term, 2013 Table of Contents Introduction 3 The Emergence of Language 3 The Theories of Johann Gottfried Herder 4 Pre-Language 4 Sound and Language 5 Theory of Divine Inspiration 5 Criticism of Herder's Work 6 The Gestural Theory 6 Motor Activity and Language 7 The Mirror Neuron System Theory 7 Theory of Sound Symbolism 8 Synesthesia 8 Discontinuity Theories 9 Summary 9 Works Cited 10 Introduction The origin of human language is a mystery which has baffled scholars and scientists for thousands of years. It can only be speculated how language began and evolved; the lack of direct evidence suggesting that it is perhaps a riddle that cannot be solved (Deacon 7). Yet this has not stopped many various theories from emerging over the years, speculations ranging from wild guesses to educated, scientific deductions. According to prominent linguist Eric Heinz Lenneberg, theories surrounding the origin of language are categorized into two main groups: continuity theories and discontinuity theories (Hill 134). Continuity theories hold that language was formed through a long process of evolution. Discontinuity theories are based on the belief that language is too complex to have evolved out of natural systems and is the result of a significant evolutionary jump which took place relatively abruptly. On the side of continuity theories...
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...The new advancing generation is changing people to be able to fit into the mainstream to recreate themselves online specifically to become this false self of themselves. Everyone has been given that freedom of speech to become that person he or she imagines to be, but some people take advantage of that. When it comes to online they begin to lose their morals and ethics. We are at fault of this when we put too much out there that could be used against us such as in job interviews, college applications, and new relationships we encounter every day. As shown by Yoshino, he says "covering has enjoyed such a robust and stubborn life because it is a form of assimilation" (Yoshino 552). A 14 year old girl called "Kiki Kannibal" exposes herself to the social networking to feel part of the world and gives it away when she faces all the publicity of her online life turns to an "endless, soul sucking performance." (Erdely). This comes to show that there is a online world that changes us to create this fantasy world we so desire from what we lack in the real world. Although it can be argued that social media allows people to honestly express themselves, most people use social media to perpetuate a false self; in doing so, they strive to be one with themselves and society by the advancing technology that it offers, compromise their beliefs and values for attention, and have difficulty discerning what they post online along with what's really being told. Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and...
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