...MARKET EFFICIENCY - DEFINITION AND TESTS What is an efficient market? Efficient market is one where the market price is an unbiased estimate of the true value of the investment. Implicit in this derivation are several key concepts - (a) Market efficiency does not require that the market price be equal to true value at every point in time. All it requires is that errors in the market price be unbiased, i.e., that prices can be greater than or less than true value, as long as these deviations are random. (b) The fact that the deviations from true value are random implies, in a rough sense, that there is an equal chance that stocks are under or over valued at any point in time, and that these deviations are uncorrelated with any observable variable. For instance, in an efficient market, stocks with lower PE ratios should be no more or less likely to under valued than stocks with high PE ratios. (c) If the deviations of market price from true value are random, it follows that no group of investors should be able to consistently find under or over valued stocks using any investment strategy. Market Efficiency for Investor Groups Definitions of market efficiency have to be specific not only about the market that is being considered but also the investor group that is covered. It is extremely unlikely that all markets are efficient to all investors, but it is entirely possible that a particular market (for instance, the New York Stock Exchange)...
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...Efficient Capital Markets Topic 4 Davenport University FINC 620 - Financial Management June 3, 2016 Efficient capital markets Market Efficiency An efficient capital market is: “A market where information regarding the value of securities are incorporated into its prices accurately and in real time. Since the value of securities fluctuates depending on the present value of future cash flows, an efficient capital market enables these fluctuations to be reflected in the securities' current price” (Investorwords.com, n.d.). What this means is that investors who invest among the stock market try and determine if the market is efficient, and whether it accurately emulates all of the influential prominent forces that are put on prices, and affected by such forces in real time. The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is a theory among investors that states that it is impossible to out-smart the market because the efficient market always mirrors current events and information making it impossible to veer buy stock underpriced or overpriced – prices will always reflect the fair market value based on market influences. The only way to succeed in the market is to gamble with high-risk returns (Investopedia. n.d.). How this all works is investors will buy up stock and generate cash flow into the stock market, looking for a return on one’s investment. They are not always satisfied with a return; they want to maximize the return more than...
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...REVISITING MARKET EFFICIENCY: THE STOCK MARKET AS A COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM by Michael J. Mauboussin, Credit Suisse First Boston t is time to shift the emphasis of the debate about market efficiency. Most academics and practitioners agree that markets are efficient by a reasonable operational criterion: there is no systematic way to exploit opportunities for superior gains. But we need to reorient the discussion to how this operational efficiency arises. The crux of the debate boils down to whether we should consider investors to be rational, well informed, and homogeneous—the backbone of standard capital markets theory—or potentially irrational, operating with incomplete information, and relying on varying decision rules. The latter characteristics are part and parcel of a relatively newly articulated phenomenon that researchers at the Santa Fe Institute and elsewhere call complex adaptive systems. Why should corporate managers care about how market efficiency arises? In truth, executives can make many corporate finance decisions independent of the means of market efficiency. But if complex adaptive systems do a better job explaining how markets work, there are critical implications for areas such as risk management and investor communications. I Take, for example, the earnings expectations game.1 In a complex adaptive system, the sum is greater than the parts. So it is not possible to understand the stock market by paying attention to individual analysts. Managers...
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...FINC3017 Investments and Portfolio Management Essay: Market Efficiency and Anomalies Topic：Stock price momentum: Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) Momentum anomaly and EMH Anomaly is a stock return deviation that challenge efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) theorise price momentum anomaly in the stock market for the first time. It contradicted to efficient market hypothesis thereby is widely debated. EMH states that no consistent excess return can be achieved since security prices fully reflect all available information (Fama 1970). Therefore, future prices cannot be predicted through technical analysis of past prices. If the hypothesis is true, passive investment strategy ought to be taken, because it is impossible to get abnormal return by aggressive trading. However, Jegadeesh and Titman show that stocks performed well over the previous 3 to 12 months tend to continue to perform well over 3 to 12 months holding periods. Buy past winners and short past losers earned statistically significant positive return of averaging 12.01% per year. Predictable price patterns and excess returns contradict the efficient market hypothesis. Investors and fund managers perform actively in pursuing abnormal profits. Literature review and the reason of anomaly A large number of literatures illustrate that momentum anomaly exist. Some important literatures are Chan, Jegadeesh and Lakonishok (1996), Conrad and Kaul (1998) and Moskowitz and Grinblatt (1999)....
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...TECHNOLOGICAL EFFICIENCY AND FREE MARKET ECONOMIES Evans Gwaro Kisii University 15th July, 2016 Technological Efficiency and Free Market Economies Betz (2011) defines technology as the ability to influence any piece of knowledge to suite the best interest of human nature. While, on the other hand, Zupan (2011) refers a free market to system in which the prices for goods and services are agreed freely by accord between vendors and users, in which the rules and requirements on supply and demand are not interfered with by the authorities, price-setting monopoly, or other power. Free markets have various merits. The most accepted is the extension of individual choice, through commonly appreciated give-and-take situation. Subsequently, free market differs with a regulated market, where the government intercedes in supply and demand through non-market approaches that include regulations forming obstructions to market entry and/or directly setting prices. As such, the concept of a free market is where prices are structured by the equivalent demand and supply opportunities. Subsequently, as aforementioned, the influence of choice which enshrines to the free market alignment employs preeminent use of discrete entrepreneurial skills which inspires technology advancement. Essentially, in a free market economy, there are three components that include competition, active but limited government, and the self-interest. Competition in the market place provides quality goods to consumers...
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...Banking Jahangirnagar University Savar, Dhaka FNB209: Financial Institutions and Markets | Executive Summary Submission of the Report on : Efficiency Analysis and Volatility Effect of Bangladesh Stock Market Submitted by:Sariful Islam(Student ID: 610)Ashfaq-ul- haq oni(Student ID: 621)Jafrin Siddique (Student ID: 1922)Zunaid Hossain (Student ID: 1928)K. M. Zeman Adnan (Student ID: 2128)William Masterson Shah (Student ID: 2129) | Submitted to:Dr. Sheikh Abu TaherLecturer,Department of Finance & BankingJahangirnagar University | August 2, 2012 Term Paper Topic: Efficiency Analysis and Volatility Effect of Bangladesh Stock Market Executive Summary: This paper empirically examines the behavior of stock returns in the Bangladesh stock market namely Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), the efficiency of the market in pricing securities and the relationship between stock returns and conditional volatility and the impact of some institution factors such as lock-in, circuit breaker, and caretaker government on volatility, using best known three different daily price indices DSEG, DSI and DS20. The results of autocorrelation function, results of ADF and PP tests and also the results of ARIMA models do not support the hypothesis of weak-form of market efficient of DSE. The results of GARCH (p, q)-M models indicate significant departure from the hypothesis of weak form efficiency; the tendency for returns to exhibit volatility clustering; and a significant positive...
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...THE EVOLUTION OF STOCK MARKET EFFICIENCY OVER TIME: A SURVEY OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE Kian-Ping Lim Universiti Malaysia Sabah and Monash University and Robert Brooks Monash University Background This paper provides an insight into the empirical literature as pertains the evolution of stock market efficiency over time, with a keen focus on the weak form Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The authors provide a systematic review of the correlation between several financial factors namely: Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (AMH), Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH), Evolving Return Predictability, Stock markets and Weak-form EMH. The authors pay keen attention on how return predictability from past price changes is affected by key players and determinants on the stock markets. From the survey they conduct, the posit that the bulk of the empirical studies examine whether the stock market under study is or is not weak-form efficient in the absolute sense, assuming that the level of market efficiency remains unchanged throughout the estimation period. The authors acknowledge that one field that has drawn extensive investigation by scholars and other players alike is the predictability of stock returns on the basis of past price changes. This is partly due to its direct implication on weak-form market efficiency. They find that a vast majority of the literature implicitly assumes the level of market efficiency remains unchanged throughout the estimation period. However, the possibility...
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...Weak form Efficiency and Calendar Anomalies: Comparison between Developed and Developing Equity Markets Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah Assistant Professor-Finance, Department of Business Administration Faculty of Management Sciences, International Islamic University Islamabad E-mail: zulfiqar.shah@gmail.com Muhammad Husnain Ph.D Scholar (Finance) Mohammad Ali Jinnah University Islamabad Email: Husnain_ctn@yahoo.com Abstract Financial economists have continuously questioned the efficient market hypothesis especially in last decade. Major part of discussion is whether the equity markets are efficient and if not then up to what extent one can forecast the meaningful future movement of equity prices. On one side there are believers of random walk and contrary there are followers of chartist theories. Those who negate the random walk suggested that there exist anomalies in the equity markets and hence are not perfectly efficient. The major objective of this study is to check the weak form of efficiency and presence of calendar anomalies in equity markets of developing and developed countries. On the basis of most recent and relatively longer horizon (14 Year) data on daily basis and a range of powerful econometrics this study suggested that in broader sense both of developed and developing equity markets are weak form inefficient. Hence there is no remarkable difference in term of market efficiency in equity markets of developed and developing countries. Hence one can reject the random walk...
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...Risk premium Risk premium ontstaat wanneer investeerders binnenlandse en buitenlandse bonds niet langer zien als perfecte substituten. Als ze bijvoorbeeld vinden dat binnenlandse bonds een relatief hoger risico hebben dat buitenlandse bonds, dan zullen ze op de binnenlandse bonds een hogere return verwachten. Deze hogere return wordt de risk premium genoemd. Voor een risk premium moet er aan drie voorwaarden worden voldaan: 1. Risicoverschil tussen binnenlandse en buitenlandse bonds. 2. Investeerders moeten risk averse zijn. 3. Er moet een verschil zijn tussen de risk-minimizing portfolio en de echte portfolio. Twee definities: 1. r - r* = Eṡ + RP r r* Eṡ RP = binnenlandse rente = buitenlandse rente = verwachtte depreciatie van binnenlandse munt tov buitenlandse munt = risicopremie voor binnenlandse bonds 2. Premium om risicio te vermijden: Stel Nederlandse importeur moet $1 betalen op tijdstip t+1. st+1 is onbekend en dus risico. Importeur koopt forward van B en betaalt ft euro op t+1 aan B. B heeft nu het risico en wilt ft > Est als compensatie voor het hebben van euros op tijdstip t+1 ipv dollars. Importeur betaalt dit om risico te vermijden. RP = f-Es Er zijn verschillende bronnen van risico. Deze bronnen zijn onderverdeeld in twee categorieën: Currency risks Inflation risk: Dit risico ontstaat wanneer de inflatie in de binnenlandse en buitenlandse economie onzeker is. Als dit het geval is dan is de real return niet zeker en is er dus risico. ...
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...1.0 INTRODUCTION Payroll consists of the process by which a business pays its employees for work performed during a specific period. A payroll system allows businesses to follow a set series of processes in order to make timely, correct payments in compliance with government regulations. A payroll system may be manual or computerized and handled in-house or outsourced to another provider. 2.1 OBJECTIVES A payroll system should be geared toward paying employees what they earn within a reasonable time frame and accurately tracking paycheck amounts as well as tax and benefit withholdings. Payroll systems should be thorough without being overly complex and cumbersome, and they should be designed thoughtfully enough to work well with a minimum of oversight. Having a well-designed payroll system is in the best interest of employees, business owners and human resources staff. 2.2 Scope And Limitation Accuracy Accuracy is an important objective of a payroll system, because employees are entitled to be fairly compensated for the work they have done, and a company's financial well-being depends on not overpaying employees for the time they have worked. In addition, businesses are liable for payroll taxes on employee earnings as well as remitting payroll taxes that have been withheld from employee paychecks. Consistency A payroll system has many components, and the information in each section should be internally consistent. An employee's weekly wages over the...
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...1.0 INTRODUCTION Payroll consists of the process by which a business pays its employees for work performed during a specific period. A payroll system allows businesses to follow a set series of processes in order to make timely, correct payments in compliance with government regulations. A payroll system may be manual or computerized and handled in-house or outsourced to another provider. 2.1 OBJECTIVES A payroll system should be geared toward paying employees what they earn within a reasonable time frame and accurately tracking paycheck amounts as well as tax and benefit withholdings. Payroll systems should be thorough without being overly complex and cumbersome, and they should be designed thoughtfully enough to work well with a minimum of oversight. Having a well-designed payroll system is in the best interest of employees, business owners and human resources staff. 2.2 Scope And Limitation Accuracy Accuracy is an important objective of a payroll system, because employees are entitled to be fairly compensated for the work they have done, and a company's financial well-being depends on not overpaying employees for the time they have worked. In addition, businesses are liable for payroll taxes on employee earnings as well as remitting payroll taxes that have been withheld from employee paychecks. Consistency A payroll system has many components, and the information in each section should be internally consistent. An employee's weekly wages over the...
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...ways in the competition of national governments and also the EU seeks to make markets work better & achieve higher level of the economic efficiency and economic welfare. The competition policy focus on the discourage of competitive behavior. This wills covers in which the competition of the national governments & EU seek to the better work of the markets to achieve higher level of economic efficiency. The main expectation of competition policy is to make the market contribute to increase efficiency and competitiveness of the UK economy within the single market of EU. There are main objective – * Technological innovation * Protect and secure the standards of anti-competitive behavior. * Effective price competition between suppliers. The coco green company should follow these objectives to gain the UK market. Main Aims of Competition Policy Main aim of competition policy is to promote competition & make markets work better & contribute towards to increased efficiency & competitiveness of the UK economy. within the EU single market. Competition policy is aims to ensure: * Wider consumer choice in the markets for goods & services. * Technological innovation in which promotes gains in the dynamic efficiency. * Effective price competition between the suppliers. * Investigating allegations of the anti-competitive behaviour within the markets which might have negative effect on the consumer welfare There are 4 pillars...
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...On 5th January 1914 the Ford Motor company announced that it would more than double the wages of its workers. Briefly describe the history of this decision and relate to the theory of incentives and efficiency wages. When Henry Ford introduced the five-dollar day on the 12th of January 1914, many of his competitors might have questioned the success of this policy. Today, it is well established that Ford’s strategy was a key reason for the company’s early success and is often documented as an exemplary application of the efficiency-wage theory. This essay will briefly outline the history and implications that have led to the five-dollar day and relate it to the theory of incentives and efficiency wages. Henry Ford founded the Ford Motor Company in 1903. During the first few years the company remained relatively small and it was only with the introduction of the T-Model in 1908 and the transformation to assembly line production that Ford could expand his market share and increase the company’s profitability. However, as Raff and Summers noted, assembly line production resulted in a high degree of specialisation of the different production steps. Work at Ford’s became more and more menial, leading to dissatisfaction among the workforce, which reflected in a significant annual turnover of 370% in 1913. Although there was no evidence that Ford had problems filling his vacancies, the absenteeism and high turnover undoubtedly resulted in costs that Ford had aimed to reduce. It...
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...With the rising popularity of shared capitalism in the United States, it is worthwhile to analyze the effects this trend and the workplace theories that correspond to it. The purpose of the paper is to show not only how forms of shared capitalism in the workplace can increase overall employee compensation, but how several labor theories relate and support the outcomes of shared capitalism. More specifically, three theories will be extrapolated and the outcomes of shared capitalism will follow each theory. First, expectancy theory will be explained and followed by its correlation to motivation and increased compensation. Second, equity theory will be explained and followed by the results of ESOPs. Finally, an explanation of efficiency wage theory will be provided and followed by the outcome of pay on shirking. Expectancy theory hypothesizes that a person decides to act in a certain way due to their motivation to choose a certain behavior rather than another behavior because of what they expect the outcome of their chosen behavior will be. Hence, an individual will choose the behavior with the most desirable result. Expectancy theory is a type of pay-for-performance theory that focuses on the needs for institutions to reward employees based off of their performance and to ensure that those rewards are desired by the employees. The motivational force of the employee is theorized to be a function that is multiple of three factors: expectancy (the perceived link between effort...
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...The Price mechanism can be relied upon to provide efficiency The price mechanism is the way in which changes in prices of commodities affects the demand and supply of goods and services, affecting both the buyers and the sellers. Efficiency is about making optimal use of scarce resources to satisfy the wants and needs of consumers. Changes in the demand and supply model can help us to understand how efficient a market is. For instance, the example of increase in demand of books can be analysed to address the relationship of price and efficiency. The increase in demand will lead to an increase in prices resulting in movement along the supply curve. Price mechanism allows the suppliers to understand the needs of the consumers, hence leading to an increase in supply and therefore greater efficiency. Pareto efficiency plays a vital role in defining efficiency, it consists of both productive and allocative efficiency. It is the point at which there is no way of making someone better off without making anybody else worse off. The concept of Pareto efficiency can be used to evaluate different ways of allocating resources. Productive efficiency is an economic level at which the economy can no longer produce surplus goods without lowering the productive level of another product. This can only happen when the economy is working along its PPF, and the average output cost is minimised. Allocative efficiency is when the producers only produce those goods or services that are in...
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