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New Heritage Doll

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Submitted By anpoblete91
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Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez

Caso: New Heritage Doll Company

María Eliana Errázuriz Raimundo Muñoz Josefina Olivera Antonio Poblete Luis Felipe Santa María

1.

Presente y compare los argumentos de negocio para las dos proyecciones que Emily Harris está evaluando. ¿Cuál le parece más atractiva?

La empresa tiene dos opciones realizar el proyecto “Match My Doll Clothing” o el proyecto “Design Your Own Doll”.

En términos de costos, la primera alternativa tiene costos mucho menores, 3.520 versus 5.811 millones de dólares. Por lo tanto, tiene un riesgo moderado y representa la opción más segura para la compañía. Sin embargo, el segundo proyecto está más alineado a la estrategia y objetivos de la empresa y promete ingresos futuros mucho mayores. Finalmente, nosotros escogeríamos esta última, a pesar de que en el inicio no tendríamos ingresos y solo serían gastos, en el futuro generaríamos casi el doble de beneficio operacional que con la primera alternativa y estaríamos invirtiendo en un proyecto congruente a la estrategia de la organización. Por el criterio de ranking, el mejor proyecto es que posee un NPV mayor y por esto se elige ese.

2.
Use
las proyecciones operacionales de cada proyecto para calcular el NPV de cada uno. ¿Qué proyecciones implican mayor valor? Operating
Profit
proyecto
1
proyecto2

1.250
1.201

583

994

1.277

1.392

1.503

1.623

1.753

1.893

2.045

2.209

14.023

Inversión inicial -3520

0

550

1.794

2.724

2.779

2.946

3.123

3.310

3.509

3.719

23.253

-6.811

NPV
10.503
16.442

3.

Calcula la tasa interna de retorno (IFF) y el período de recupero para cada proyecto. ¿Cómo afectan estas métricas la decisión de Emily Harris? ¿Cómo se comparan con el NPV como herramientas para evaluar proyectos? ¿Cuándo y cómo debiéramos usar cada una?

Valor Presente Neto Para “Match My Doll Clothing” 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

4.500

6.860

8.409

9.082

9.808

10.593

11.440

12.355

13.344

14.411

1.250

3.917

5.866

7.132

7.690

8.305

8.969

9.687

10.462

11.299

12.203

-1.250

583

994

1.277

1.392

1.503

1.623

1.753

1.893

2.045

2.209

152,2

152,2

152,2

152,2

164,4

177,5

191,7

207,1

223,6

241,5

735

1.146

1.430

1.544

1.668

1.801

1.945

2.100

2.269

2.450

Revenue
Total Operating Expenses
Operating Profit

Depreciation
Flujo de caja neto

-1.250

Tasa

1
1,084 1,175056 1,273761 1,380757 1,49674 1,622466 1,758754 1,906489 2,066634 2,240231
-­‐1250 678,0443 975,4429 1122,267 1118,227 1114,088 1110,014 1105,88 1101,711 1097,727 1093,637

Valor presente
NPV
IRR
Payback

9267,039
72%
entre 1-­‐2 años

Valor Presente Neto Para “Design Your Own Doll”

2010

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

0

6.000

14.360

20.222

21.435

22.721

24.084

25.529

27.061

28.685

0

4.210

9.644

13.454

14.369

15.231

16.145

17.113

18.140

19.229

0

550

1.794

2.724

2.779

2.946

3.123

3.310

3.509

3.719

0

310

310

310

436

462

490

520

551

584

-1.201

0

860

2.104

3.033

3.215

3.408

3.613

3.830

4.059

4.303

1

1,09

-1.201

0

Revenue
Total Production Costs
Operating Profit

-1.201

Dep reciation
Flujo de caja
Tasa
Valor presente
NPV
IRR
Payback

2011

1,1881 1,295029 1,411582 1,538624
724

1.625

2.149

2.090

1,6771 1,828039 1,992563 2,171893 2,367364
2.032

1.976

1.922

15.003

69% entre 2-­‐3 años

Para calcular el IRR es necesario calcular en NPV, ya que esta es la tasa de descuento que hace el valor presente neto igual a cero. Como podemos ver en el análisis realizado anteriormente, el proyecto “Design Your Own Doll” (Proyecto 2) tiene un IRR menor y un periodo de recupero más alto. Esto a simple vista nos dice que se debería escoger el proyecto “Match My Doll Clothing” (proyecto 1), ya que tiene una tasa de retorno más alta (por cada peso invertido se gana más en el proyecto 1) y un tiempo de recupero de la inversión mucho menor. Por otro lado, al revisar el NPV de cada uno de ellos, podemos ver que el proyecto 2 tiene un valor presente neto mucho más alto que el proyecto uno. Aquí podemos ver explícitamente lo que comentamos en clases: un IRR mayor no necesariamente implica una utilidad final (o NPV) mayor, ya que un proyecto puede estar moviendo millones de dólares y tener un IRR más bajo que un proyecto que mueve solo unos cuantos miles de dólares, pero aun así el primer proyecto puede generar ganancias muchísimo más grandes que el que tiene un IRR mayor. IRR y Payback son herramientas útiles y necesarias al momento de evaluar los proyectos, pero el VPN es mucho más útil al evaluar la efectividad y conveniencia a la hora de realizar un proyecto. Esto se debe a que el método payback ignora el valor del dinero en el tiempo, los flujos de caja posteriores al periodo de repago y las diferencias de riesgo; Por otro lado, el método IRR no alcanza a capturar la verdadera valoración de los proyectos, ya que podría estar sobre valorando a uno y quitándole valor a otro más rentable. En este caso lo ideal seria guiarse por el VPN. Como ambos valores presentes netos son mayores a cero debemos recurrir al criterio de ranking, el cual dice que debemos seleccionar el proyecto con mayor VPN. Es por esto que nosotros recomendamos que realicen el proyecto 2, ya que, aunque tenga menor IRR, a largo plazo trae mayores beneficios y el tiempo de repago no es tanto mayor al del otro proyecto (1 año). Ahora, si lo que se busca es maximizar las utilidades de la compañía, sería una buena idea analizar la posibilidad de realizar el proyecto 1 primero y después de que se complete el periodo de payback (incluso un poco antes, ya que el costo del proyecto 2 es menor al costo del proyecto 1), y suponiendo que los costos e ingresos futuros serian los mismos, realizar el proyecto 2. Con esta estrategia se podrían capturar

1.869

1.818

ambos VPN, solo tendríamos que tomarnos entre 1 y 2 años más (payback proyecto 1)

4.
¿Qué
información adicional necesitaría Harris para completar su análisis y comparar los dos proyectos? ¿Qué preguntas específicas debiera preguntar a los que patrocinan cada proyecto?

Harris necesita estar al tanto de los beneficios de ambos proyectos y el tiempo que demorará en recuperar el monto invertido, ya que al ser tan grande en ambos casos (Diseña tu Propia muñeca es mayor que en Match My Doll Clothes) los administradores van a estar muy interesados en cuándo van a recuperar su inversión. Por eso mismo, Harris necesita preguntarles cuánto tiempo están dispuestos a esperar para recuperar su inversión inicial, es decir, ¿cuál será el periodo de repago? Ya que los administradores pueden aguantar los primeros 5 años de pérdidas y pocas ganancias hasta dar por fallido el proyecto, cuando en realidad era el sexto año donde se recuperaba la mayor parte del monto.

5.
Si
Emily Harris se ve obligada a recomendar sólo un proyecto, ¿cuál debería recomendar? ¿por qué?

En base a todo el análisis anterior, se concluye que el proyecto 1, posee una menor inversión inicial, un mayor IRR pero posee menores retornos y un menor NPV en comparación con el proyecto “Design Your Own Doll”, como vimos en clases y se dice anteriormente, un mejor IRR no asegura que las utilidades posteriores sean mejores y una mayor inversión inicial hace el proyecto más riesgoso, pero el costo de oportunidad de la inversión en el largo plazo es mayor, ya que se obtiene casi el doble de retornos en el largo plazo con el proyecto 2.

Es por esto que Emily Harris debería recomendar el proyecto “Design Your Own Doll” por todo lo dicho anteriormente.

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