Premium Essay

Perceptual Biases

Submitted By
Words 710
Pages 3
What approaches can an analyst use to reduce cognitive and perceptual biases?

An analyst is faced with many challenges throughout the information process, especially when dealing with large volumes of debatable or uncertain information. Automatically, our minds will evaluate or conclude a piece of information based off our personal experiences, perceptions, or through our world ‘lens’. This type of unconscious bias leads to an analyst being closed-minded, resistant to change, or not willing to think outside the box. In addition, this “can cause analysts to overlook, reject, or forget important incoming or missing information that is not in accord with their assumptions and expectations” (US Government 2009, 1). However, there are tools and …show more content…
Our judgments are clouded by our personal perceptions, culture’s, and life experiences. For instance, if an analyst is on a time constraint or bogged down with an assignment, he or she could possibly make a hasty decision not based on the facts provided but on their personal bias. It is crucial for the analyst to have more and better information about their assignment as possible, in order for them to make a sound and solid decision. However, there will be occasions when an analyst is dealing with a difficult assignment, one way to aid in the proper and careful judgment of this assignment, an analyst should choose the Diagnostic Technique, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The ACH “helps an analyst overcome, or at least minimize, some of the cognitive limitations that make prescient intelligence analysis so difficult to achieve” (Heuer 1999, 95). Even though the ACH is a lengthy eight step process, it ensures the analyst or group of analysts are considering all options, points of view, and answering all pertinent questions. Although the ACH is not a guarantee or a perfect solution of achieving the correct or right answer, it does however, “guarantee an appropriate process of analysis” […] and “has the offsetting advantage of focusing attention on the few items of critical evidence that cause uncertainty or which, if they were …show more content…
For example, if a group of analysts were displaying strong views or competing hypotheses, they could try another approach with the Contrarian Technique of Team A/Team B. Even though this technique requires more commitment and focus, the outcome will “allow those holding opposing views to feel that their views have been given equal attention” (US Government 2009, 19). Lastly, for a more Imaginative Thinking Technique, the most creative in my opinion, is the Red Team Analysis. The analyst lives and breathes a selected adversary by learning their culture, norms, values, operations, organizational structure, and any other pertinent information. Once the analyst has gained enough information about the adversary, they formulate a paper with their predictions of the chosen groups next

Similar Documents

Free Essay

Perception and Individual Decision-Making

...Perception and Individual decision-making (Robertson) Perception Perception is a process by which individuals organize and interpret their sensory impressions in order to give meaning to their environment. However, what we perceive can be substantially different from objective reality. People’s behaviour is based on their perception of what reality is, not reality itself. Factors that influence it Attribution theory The attribution theory is an attempt to determine whether an individual’s behaviour is internally or externally caused. Internally caused behaviours are those we believe to be under the personal control of the individual whereas externally caused behaviour is what we imagine the situation forced the individual to do. * Determinants of attribution 1. Distinctiveness: what we want to know is whether behaviour is unusual, if so we are likely to give it an external attribution. If not we will probably judge the behaviour to be internal. 2. Consensus: behaviour shows consensus when everyone who faces a similar situation responds in the same way. If consensus is high you will probably give an external attribution to the individual’s behaviour whereas if the consensus is low it will be attributed to an internal cause. 3. Consistency: does the person respond the say way over time? The more consistent the behaviour is the more we are inclined to attribute it to internal factors. ...

Words: 1619 - Pages: 7

Free Essay

Organization Behavior

...Job satisfaction is one of the most important work attitudes in organizational behavior, and the important issue for workers in organizations. The determinants of job satisfaction are pay, promotion opportunities, supervision, coworkers, and the work itself. There is many factor are affecting its levels. First of all ,the work situation is the main factor determinant of job satisfaction .the most notable situational influence on job satisfaction is the nature of the work itself, which includes job challenges, autonomy, variety and scope, the another component of any work situation is pay. Pay is therefore an obvious sources of job satisfaction (or dissatisfaction), however, people will sometimes take lower-paying job with meet needs they might have. Job promotion is the other factor to impact on the satisfaction levels , A promotion implies higher pay and recognition for work well done, and is an indication of status and regard. Supervisors who may earn less than their subordinates, which sometimes happens because subordinates are paid overtime or bonuses which are not paid to management are often understandably dissatisfied. Besides, the superior-subordinate relationship, in addition to the relationship coworkers, also has an important influence on job satisfaction in the workplace, The way in which an employee perceives a supervisor’s or coworker’s behavior can positively or negatively influence job satisfaction. Mood and emotions form the affective element of...

Words: 843 - Pages: 4

Premium Essay

K&N's Marketing Report

...Principles Of Marketing Submitted to: Final project on: Ms. Nadia Rahim Submitted by: Madiha Fazal Sheeba Siddiqui Syed Umer Noman Abdul Sheikh Moiz Afsheen Raza Zaidi Certificate: It is to certify that all the work submitted is authentic and genuine. Preface This project report has been prepared to meet the requirement of the final project of Principles of Marketing of program MBA. For the preparation of this project we have visited K&N’s outlets and its head office and had a meeting with marketing manager of K&N’s. The rationale behind visiting the company is to study and evaluate the marketing and positioning strategies of K&N’s products the history and development of the food market. The report starts with the basic history and introduction of the company, its products and competitors it also covers the general information of the market. The information presented in this report has been obtained from the company’s personnel consumers and the market and company’s websites. Group members Sheeba Siddiqui Syed Umer Noman Madiha Fazal Afsheen Raza Abdul Moiz Contents Introduction 3 History: 3 Working Process: 3 PRODUCTS: 4 CURRENT MARKET SITUATION: 4 COMPETITORS 5 Menu foods: 5 Man-o-salwa 5 Pk Foods 5 Dawn foods 5 Competing products 5 Earlier product to satisfy need: 5 Researching Organizational Marketing Positioning: 6 Target Marketing Segments 6 • Working...

Words: 2045 - Pages: 9

Free Essay

Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli

...CONTE NTS Introduction 1 WHY YOU SHOULD VISIT CEMETERIES: Survivorship Bias 2 DOES HARVARD MAKE YOU SMARTER?: Swimmer’s Body Illusion 3 WHY YOU SEE SHAPES IN THE CLOUDS: Clustering Illusion 4 IF 50 MILLION PEOPLE SAY SOMETHING FOOLISH, IT IS STILL FOOLISH: Social Proof 5 WHY YOU SHOULD FORGET THE PAST: Sunk Cost Fallacy 6 DON’T ACCEPT FREE DRINKS: Reciprocity 7 BEWARE THE ‘SPECIAL CASE’: Confirmation Bias (Part 1) 8 MURDER YOUR DARLINGS: Confirmation Bias (Part 2) 9 DON’T BOW TO AUTHORITY: Authority Bias 10 LEAVE YOUR SUPERMODEL FRIENDS AT HOME: Contrast Effect 11 WHY WE PREFER A WRONG MAP TO NO MAP AT ALL: Availability Bias 12 WHY ‘NO PAIN, NO GAIN’ SHOULD SET ALARM BELLS RINGING: The It’llGet-Worse-Before-It-Gets-Better Fallacy 13 EVEN TRUE STORIES ARE FAIRYTALES: Story Bias 14 WHY YOU SHOULD KEEP A DIARY: Hindsight Bias 15 WHY YOU SYSTEMATICALLY OVERESTIMATE YOUR KNOWLEDGE AND ABILITIES: Overconfidence Effect 16 DON’T TAKE NEWS ANCHORS SERIOUSLY: Chauffeur Knowledge 17 YOU CONTROL LESS THAN YOU THINK: Illusion of Control 18 NEVER PAY YOUR LAWYER BY THE HOUR: Incentive Super-Response Tendency 19 THE DUBIOUS EFFICACY OF DOCTORS, CONSULTANTS AND PSYCHOTHERAPISTS: Regression to Mean 20 NEVER JUDGE A DECISION BY ITS OUTCOME: Outcome Bias 21 LESS IS MORE: The Paradox of Choice 22 YOU LIKE ME, YOU REALLY REALLY LIKE ME: Liking Bias 23 DON’T CLING TO THINGS: Endowment Effect 24 THE INEVITABILITY OF UNLIKELY Events: Coincidence 25 THE CALAMITY OF CONFORMITY: Groupthink 26 WHY...

Words: 75018 - Pages: 301

Free Essay

Jensen Shoes: Lyndon Brooks’ Story

...Analysis for Case Jensen Shoes: Lyndon Brooks’ Story Are self-evaluations being hurt? Yes. This case gives us indications that Lyndon had negative core self-evaluations which are explained below: a. Self-esteem: Although not happy with this first assignment he decided to take it up so that it helped him broaden his background and move up in job roles by showing credibility. But he could not complete all his assignments in time. He was later told by Chuck that he would be moved to Strategic Product Marketing and would be reporting to Jane Kravitz as part of reorganizing. Lyndon took this change as the effect of his under-performance and had a feeling of being demoted. This looked like it hit his self-esteem as it gave him feeling of failing in his work and now he had to report to Jane while he himself was in line management before. b. Self-efficacy: In his first project he did believe in his capabilities to take on the project, but when he could not complete it, his work was not well appreciated by Chuck and was also moved to another project. This demotivated him and let him down. He thought he had failed. When he was again assigned the same market in his 2nd project he thought he will fail again in this project and his lack of knowledge of this market will add into the issue. He now did not have confidence in his capabilities and wanted to remain in his comfort zone of line management. c. Locus of control: He seems to display external locus of control as he believed...

Words: 1027 - Pages: 5

Premium Essay

Analysis of Amazon.Com's

...Arab Open University Faculty of Business Studies B301A – Making Sense of Strategy (I) Fall Semester 2012 -2013 Tutor-Marked Assignment, TMA This tutor-marked assignment draws mainly on Blocks 1 & 2, “Readings for Blocks 1 & 2”, Units 1 & 2 of Block 3, and the first 6 Readings of “Readings for Block 3”. It consists of five (5) questions and accounts for 20% of the total grade assigned to the course. This assignment will be graded out of 100 marks, of which 80% of these marks will be allocated to your answer for the different questions. The remaining 20% will be distributed among the following criteria: * 5% for proper referencing * 5% for presentation of ideas and organization of the answer * 5% for adherence to specified word count * 5% for the use of the E-library/External resources. In this TMA, you are expected to demonstrate your knowledge and understanding of the importance of the business environment for strategic management and for acquiring and improving the market position of organizations. You are also, required to apply various learned concepts in strategic positioning, strategy process, knowledge management, resource-based approaches of competitive advantage. In addition, you should be able to recognize how the strategic choices made by organizations are influenced by a school of thoughts or a particular theory. In your answer, your workis expected to show critical, analytical and justification skills of the subject matter...

Words: 446 - Pages: 2

Premium Essay

Connector 2001 Case

...MKTG 4120 Case Study – Positioning the ConneCtor 2011 Prepared by LI Danyang Sunny 1155002138 Question 1: Two dimensions were applied in this case since the third dimension did not capture significant variance compared with the sum of first two. (See Figure 1) The variance explained by the horizontal dimension (46.6%) was two times more than the vertical horizontal (20.8%), so the horizontal dimension was more than twice important in explaining customer perceptions than the vertical one. The horizontal axis associated mostly with attributes “Multimedia”, “Stylish” and “Monitor” while the vertical axis associated mostly with “Sturdiness”, “Light Weight” and “Connectivity”. (See Figure 2) From the perception map, Connector 10L performed the best in terms of Connectivity, Data Entry and Third Party Support. Moreover, it also had advantages on its weight. However, Connector 10L was not attractive enough to customers in terms of Multimedia Function, Stylish and Monitor Quality. It is noticed that there was a lack of other brands near Connector 10L’s position (Only Palm VII), which indicated a potential opportunity for new positioning – wireless access feature. (See Figure 2) Question 2: In the positioning map with Preference Vector, it could be found that Connector 10L is the 5th preferred brand chosen by participants, ranked after HP Jornada, Casio Cassuioeia, Compaq IPac and Palm VII. Overall preference for handheld devices increased with Memory, Software and...

Words: 1082 - Pages: 5

Free Essay

What Is Strategy

...What is Strategy? – Michael E. Porter I. Operational effectiveness is not strategy So in the quest to beat competition managers focus on improving quality, speed and productivity all related to operational effectiveness. But in this way, they move further away from viable competitive positions which can only be achieved by an appropriate strategy. Positioning which was once the way to go about beating competition is now rejected, since its too static. Rivals can easily copy the market position and competitive advantage. However, that is not entirely true as hypercompetition is a self-inflicted wound. It is important to watch out for what your competitors are doing, but improving operational effectiveness alone is not enough, and that cannot be your only strategy. Operational effectiveness and strategy are both important for superior performance which is what a firm aims for. A company can beat rivals if it can stand out, establish a difference it can preserve. Basically a company can either provide greater value to customers or comparable value at low prices, or both. Delivering greater value means higher unit prices, greater efficiency means lower unit costs. Cost arises from performing activities and cost advantage comes from performing activities more efficiently than your competitors. This can be in the choice of the activity or how the activity is performed. So activities are what creates competitive advantage. Operational effectiveness means performing similar...

Words: 1366 - Pages: 6

Premium Essay

Unit-Iv

...Get favorable perception by investors (stock profile) and lenders 2. Symbolic positions o Self-image enhancement o Ego identification o Belongingness and social meaningfulness o Affective fulfillment 3. Experiential positions o Provide sensory stimulation o Provide cognitive stimulation Perceptual mapping Perceptual mapping provides answers to these vital questions: • What is your market position relative to your competitors? • What are your strengths and weaknesses? • Where are there gaps in the market? • How do you measure up to the “ideal?” • What strategies will improve your competitive position so that you are both relevant to the market and differentiated from competitors? The process includes developing the attributes—either functional, emotional, or both. Survey respondents rate the client brand and competitive brands on each of the attributes, and attribute importance and ideal attribute ratings are obtained. These perceptions are used to create the maps, and analysis of gaps and ideal points is performed. An Example of Perceptual Mapping This hypothetical example of the beverage market illustrates one of the primary results of a perceptual mapping study—the map itself. For illustrative purposes, this example uses types of beverages instead of actual beverage...

Words: 1313 - Pages: 6

Free Essay

Factors That Distort Performance Appraisal

...Six Factors That Distort Performance Appraisals Multiple psychological factors can sway evaluators to rate employees a certain way. Most companies use performance appraisals, also known as job evaluations, to determine whether employees are meeting expectations, and to get some clues about how the employee could improve for the benefit of the business. Even so, performance appraisals have a major flaw in that they are not completely objective. Six major factors cause distortions in performance appraisals. 1. Stereotyping * People usually can fall into at least one general category based on physical or behavioral traits, and performance evaluators sometimes let stereotypes associated with those categories sway their employee appraisals. For example, a boss might assume that because many Asians excel, an Asian worker who doesn't meet a performance objective simply isn't working hard enough, even if the worker tried his best. Similarity * Often, people tend to seek out and rate more positively those who are similar to themselves. This tendency to approve of similarity may cause evaluators to give better ratings to employees who exhibit the same interests, work methods, points of view or standards. A major problem with this cause of distortion is that it can stifle innovation in a company, as "different" people must struggle to rise in the ranks. Leniency * Leniency, sometimes referred to as inflation, is the tendency of evaluators to give employees higher...

Words: 1168 - Pages: 5

Free Essay

The Halo Effect Book Reivew

...Running Head: LITERATURE REVIEW: HALO EFFECT   1 Literature Review: HALO EFFECT NO NAME GIVEN HERE Liberty University BUSI 600-B04 21 January 2013 LITERATURE REVIEW: HALO EFFECT Abstract 2 The term “Halo Effect” has several definitions. In conducting business research, it is important to understand which definition is to be used and apply that definition to the problem at hand. In this paper, we will attempt to define the correct version of the halo effect as it applies to this literature review. This paper will then look at the history of the halo effect in business and define how it is being used today. During the writing, examples and studies regarding the halo effect that have already been completed will also be reviewed to see if the halo effect can genuinely and repeatedly be used in business to increase profits or generate revenues. LITERATURE REVIEW: HALO EFFECT Literature Review: Halo Effect Introduction Definition When discussing and researching the term “Halo Effect” the various definitions of the 3 phrase must be reviewed. Once reviewed, the researcher then has the responsibility to determine which definition best fits their research question at hand in order to best formulate the research design and subsequent answer. One of the definitions of halo effect is from the textbook Business research methods by Donald Cooper. It is defined as “error caused when prior observations influence perceptions of current observations” (Cooper & Schindler...

Words: 7558 - Pages: 31

Free Essay

Mgmt 3720

...The story is about a ski instructor named Miranda who is having several issues with her new boss, Hank because he has done and said many things over the course of the time that he has been there to show that he may be sexist. This scenario has a lot to do with perception. Perception is defined as “a process by which individuals organize and interpret their sensory impressions in order to give meaning to their environment” (Robbins & Judge, 166). This paper will discuss what perception is and how much of an impact in can have in the work place. Miranda’s perception of her boss Hank is that he is a sexist. The initial problem that is discussed is the fact that she did not like the fact that as one of the most experienced ski instructors at the resort but she was only being assigned to teach the children instead of the adults, the same for all the other female instructors. She sees how Hank separates the men and the women instructor to have a meeting about work procedure, “After introducing himself and Harika, he took the men to one room, and Harika took the women to another,” (Cohan, Fink,Gadon, Willits & Josefowitz, 2013). That was the first thing that bothered her because she could not understand what it is that had to be said to only the male instructors that could not also be said to the female. Although this bothered her initially, she decided to find a positive side to the situation, and went along with it. The more she went along with what was going around the job place...

Words: 1342 - Pages: 6

Premium Essay

Introspection Illusion

...“Introspection Illusion” Introspection Illusion is defined as a cognitive bias in which people wrongly think they have direct insight into the origins of their mental states, while treating others' introspections as unreliable (Wikipedia). Introspection tends to be the evidence one receives about their self as they look to their own thoughts and feelings, and adding an illusion to this mix adds a misty fog that people look through as they look inward. In this paper I will attempt to show how Introspection Illusion affects us not only in our day to day lives, but how it can also have a major impact on our financial decisions. Introspection Illusion was first defined by Emily Pronin. She observed how people viewed their selves and how aware they were of their motives, thoughts and feelings. This awareness, however, is often weak and unreliable. Eric Schwitzgebel argues this case by stating that “introspection is unreliable in the sense that we are prone to ignorance and error in making introspective judgments about our own conscious experience,” (Smithies). In this sense, our inner motives, thoughts and feelings are strictly biased based on our limited understanding of the world surrounding and with little thought to the personal introspections of others around us. So why then do we rely so much on our introspection? Pronin claims that it is because they are intimate and comfortable, which makes it easy and safe to believe in the classic statement of “I think therefore I am...

Words: 649 - Pages: 3

Free Essay

Behavioural Finance Book Review

...on the investment staff of a family office. Pompian is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), a Certified Financial Planner (CFP), and a Certified Trust Financial Advisor (CTFA). He is also a member of the CFA Institute (formerly AIMR) and the New York Society of Security Analysts (NYSSA). He holds a BS in management from the University of New Hampshire and an MBA in finance from Tulane University. Pompian is a regular speaker on the subject of behavioral finance and has published several articles on the subject. He is married with three sons and can be reached at michael.pompian@mercer.com. “ Michael M. Pompian describes various biases which we can see in human beings , also tells about various experiments on human beings in his book “ BEHAVIOURAL FINANCE AND WEALTH MANAGEMENT “ and tells “HOW TO BUILD OPTIMAL PORTFOLIOS THAT ACCOUNTS FOR INVESTOR BIASES “ The book is published by John wiley and sons, inc. ,Hoboken , New jersey. Published simultaneously in Canada. The book was published in the year 2006 . SUMMARY : Understanding the use of behavioral finance theory in investing is a important topic these days. Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman has described financial advising as a prescriptive activity whose main objective should be to guide investors to...

Words: 4842 - Pages: 20

Premium Essay

Behavior Corporate Finance

...CORPORATE FINANCE HONOURS 2011-2012 Topic: Behavioural corporate finance Lecturer: Yue (Lucy) Liu E-mail: Yue.Liu@ed.ac.uk Outline Psychological phenomena Biases Heuristics Framing effects Impact on corporate finance Valuation Capital Budgeting Capital structure Dividend policy Mergers and acquisitions Yue (Lucy) Liu 2011/2012 Corporate Finance 2 Psychological phenomena Bias Excessive optimism Overconfidence Confirmation bias Illusion of control Heuristics Representativeness Availability Anchoring and adjustment Affect Heuristic Framing effects Loss aversion Aversion to a sure loss Yue (Lucy) Liu 2011/2012 Corporate Finance 3 Biases Bias A predisposition toward error. – Excessive optimism People overestimate how frequently they will experience favorable outcomes and underestimate how frequently they will experience unfavorable outcomes. – Overconfidence People make mistakes more frequently than they believe and view themselves as better than average. – Confirmation bias People attach too much importance to information that supports their views relative to information that runs counter to their views. – Illusion of control People overestimate the extent to which they can control events. Yue (Lucy) Liu 2011/2012 Corporate Finance 4 Heuristics Heuristic A rule of thumb used to make a decision. – Representativeness People make judgments based on stereotypic thinking, asking how representative...

Words: 875 - Pages: 4