...The Real Exchange Rate Semisal anda berinvestasi dalam deposito £100.000 dalam 1 tahun dengan bunga 5% maka pada akhir tahun anda akan mendapatkan £105.000. Hal ini kedengaran baik tetapi apabila tingkat inflasi poundsterling adalah 8% dalam tahun tersebut, coba selesaikan dengan fisher equation, return yang sebenarnya anda dapatkan adalah ė£ = (1+p£)/(1+p£) – 1 = (1.05/1.08) – 1 = -0.028, atau – 2.8%. Real Changes In Purchasing Power Semisal nilai tukar sekarang adalah S0 ¥/$ = ¥100/$, inflasi yang diharapkan adalah E[p¥] = - di Jepang dan E[p$] = 10% di Amerika. Apabila perubahan pada nominal nilai tukar merefleksikan perubahan pada kekuatan nilai tukar yen dan dollar yang relatif, nilai tukar yang diharapkan dalam satu periode menjadi E[S1¥/$] = S0¥/$ [(1+E[p¥])/(1+E[p$])] = (¥100/$)(1.00/1.10) = ¥90.91/$ Semisal 1 tahun kemudian estimasi inflasi benar-benar terjadi tetapi dollar terapresiasi menjadi S1¥/$ = ¥110/$. Ini adalah apresiasi dollar sebesar 10% dari nilai nominalnya. Faktanya, ini merepresentasikan apresiasi relatif dari dollar sebesar 21% terhadap nilai yang diharapkan sebesar ¥90.91/$ (Actual – Expected) / Expected = (¥110/$ - ¥90.91/$) / (¥90.91/$) = 0.21 The Real Exchange Rate Nilai tukar yang sebenarnya Xtd/f adalah nominal nilai tukar Std/f disesuaikan dengan perubahan relatif pada harga domestik dan luar negeri sejak didefinisikan berbasis periode waktu t=0 Xtd/f = (Std/f / S0d/f) {[(1+p1f)/(1+p1d)] [(1+p2f)/(1+p2d)]…[(1+p1f)/(1+ptd)]} ...
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...of Ethiopia Teferi Mequaninte tefmeq@yahoo.com May, 2005 SECTION ONE Introduction Following the introduction of the Structural adjustment program (SAP) in 1992 to the Ethiopian economy, there was a massive inflow of foreign aid in the form of grants, concessional loans and technical assistance. Net aid1 inflows to Ethiopia during the Derg period were around 7 percent of GDP and are doubled to 14 percent of GDP during the EPRDF regime. These elevated flows have raised a number of concerns, ranging from fears about the effect of aid inflows on the real exchange rate and export performance. The source of anxiety for all this is the Dutch disease problem of foreign aid. While seemingly beneficial foreign aid inflows may generate undesirable effects in the economy. These undesirable effects include a decline in export performance and manufacturing production caused by appreciation of the real exchange rate and resources moving out of manufacturing into other sectors (Timothy,1997). There are also concerns about aid sustainability. Specifically, while LDCs have been forced to take on greater burden of global adjustment, most donor countries have been unwilling to expand financial support for adjustment in the LDCs (Bigsten, 2003). These could be due to different motives by the donor countries. Instead of addressing the most developmental constraints of a recipient country, donors may wish to enhance the military prow ness of a recipient country, to promote their commercial...
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...Volatility of exchange rate The main objective of this research is to present a rationalized concept of the theory and composition of exchange rate that are compulsory to solve the important economic problems facing the economy in the country, like volatile exchange rate, unbalanced financial circumstances and frustration of government to have control over domestic money market. “Exchange rate” shows that how much unit of onenation’s currency can be purchased with one unit of domestic currency. More precisely, exchange rate is a conversion factor that determines rate of change of currencies. While exchange rates volatility shows that exchange rate is settled on demand and supply of one nation’s currency, it may turn out fastest moving price of currency and bring all the foreign capital in the economy. Exchange rate volatility can influence the decisions of policy makers and affect the volume of exports and imports. It can also affect the allocation of manufacturing of goods, reserve money, exports, imports and balance of payments. Exchange rate volatility provides chances to domestic investors to invest in foreign currency to obtain higher profits and thus domestic currency undervalue and foreign currency gain values. Moreover, this volatility of exchange rate directly influences the prices of exports, imports, reserve money, manufacturing productions and their growth rates. Traders and investors always support the system where the discrepancy of the difference between actual...
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...Classnote Prof. Gordon Bodnar Techniques for Managing Exchange Rate Exposure A firm's economic exposure to the exchange rate is the impact on net cash flow effects of a change in the exchange rate. It consists of the combination of transaction exposure and operating exposure. Having determined whether the firm should hedge its exposure, this note will discuss the various things that a firm can do to reduce its economic exposure. Our discussion will consider two different approaches to handling these exposures: real operating hedges and financial hedges. Transaction Exposure Financial Techniques of Managing Transaction Exposure Transaction exposure hedging should have been discussed in some detail in the previous international finance course; however, we will briefly go over the standard financial methods available for hedging this exposure. The main distinction between transaction exposure and operating exposure is the ease with which one can identify the size of a transaction exposure. This, combined with the fact that it has a well-defined time interval associated with it makes it extremely suitable for hedging with financial instruments. Among the more standard methods for hedging transaction exposure are: i) Forward Contracts - When a firm has an agreement to pay (receive) a fixed amount of foreign currency at some date in the future, in most currencies it can obtain a contract today that specifies a price at which it can buy (sell) the foreign currency at the specified...
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...8800-25(3)-25(4)-25(4)-25(4)-20(4)-20(4)-20(4)-15(4)-15(4)-10(4)= 8,025 Quarters 2 thru 10 for Real GDP is 8050, 8075, 8100, 8120, 8140, 8160, 8175, 8190 and 8200. IS Curve II: 8400-5(3)-5(4)-5(4)-5(4)-10(4)-15(4)-15(4)-15(4)-20(4)= 8,005 Quarters 2 thru 10 for Real GDP is 8010, 8015, 8020, 8025, 8035, 8050, 8065, 8080 and 8100. c). IS Curve I: Real GDP increases by 200 billion. IS Curve II: Real GDP increases by 100 billion. d). IS Curve I: Takes four quarters or 12 months, for real GDP to increase 100 billion or ½ of total increase in real GDP. IS Curve II: Takes seven quarters or 21 months, for real GDP to increase 50 billion or ½ of total increase in real GDP. e). IS Curve I looks like economy response prior to 1991. Increase in output with response to decline the interest rate which is larger than the IS Curve II. ½ total increase in output which occurs sooner than IS Curve I when compared to II. IS Curve II looks like economy response since 1991. The reason I resembles response prior to 1991 interest rate for the first 6 quarters which are larger than Curve II. f). The answers from b through d indicate that the rise is less than Curve I for first 7 time periods for increase in interest rates. The changes for the interest-rate multipliers and policy effectiveness lag show that the monetary policymakers need to change interest rates more to react to the given demand shock. CH. 17 3) a). The economy will be...
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...LECTURE: TRAN LINH DANG STUDENTS OF TC201DE01-0100 1. Phan Nguyễn Ngọc Xuân Mỹ 101537 2. Vũ Thị Hường 101574 3. Trương Linh Trang 101579 4. Nguyễn Đỗ Thiên Trang 093304 Note for faculty: Date: ___/___/___ For the writer: (Signature & full name) 2012 – 2013 CONTENTS CONTENTS i INTRODUCTION ii I. Exchange rates 1 I 1. Exchange rates 1 I 2. Exchange rate regimes 2 I 3. Roles of exchange rates 3 II. Compare and contrast between the value of VND and the others of ASEAN 5 II 1. The exchange rates in Vietnam from 2008 to 2010 6 II 2. The exchange rates in Vietnam in 2011 8 III. Impacts on exchange rates 10 III 1. Balance of Trade 10 III 2. Balance of Payments 11 III 3. Monetary Policy 12 III 4. Differentials in Inflation 12 III 5. Differentials in Interest Rates 12 III 6. Public Debt 12 III 7. Speculation 13 III 8. Employment Outlook 13 III 9. Political Stability and Economic Performance 13 IV. Adjusted policies of Vietnamese government on exchange rates 14 Recommendation a REFERENCES e INTRODUCTION Since Vietnam began to implement the open door policies and integrate into the world economy, Vietnamese trade has jumped by a so large amount, especially after...
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...provides a very basic relationship between the interest rate on an asset which is dominant in one unit of a country’s currency in relation to the same asset in another country and the exchange rate that is expected to result in the two countries. The interest rate theory states that local interest and foreign interest rates have a crucial effect on the forward exchange rates between 2 or more countries. The theory is generalized based on two conditions: · The capital is free to move from one country to another i.e. its mobile · The assets used can be substituted for one another. I.e. they have perfect substitutability. Various economists including John Keynes have found that the empirical evidence that often covered the interest rate parity, in general, holds though not specific because of certain effects of several risks, costs, taxation and even ultimate differences in liquidity (Mishkins, Fredric S (2006), economics of money. Uncovered interest rate arises as a result of satisfying the no-arbitrage condition without necessarily using the future contract as a method of hedging against foreign exchange risks. The risk-neutral business people will be indifferent to the interest rates that are at their exposure and the main reason for this is the fact that the dollar return will be equivalent to the pound or euro return after self-adjustment thus eliminating the chances of uncovered interest arbitrage gains. Uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) is a classic model or topic of the international...
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...INTERNATIONAL FINANCE EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION Factors that affect exchange rates! How are each of the factors (events) below expected to affect exchange rates? Why? 1. Increase in foreign imports and an increase in trade deficits The exchange rates will increase. Because the trade deficits made a great demand of dollar, dollar became going up and the exchange rate will increase. 2. Increase in government budget deficits The exchange rates will increase. Because the government budget deficits will lead to the BOP deficits, as a result, the purchasing power of dollar will decrease and the demand of foreign currencies will increase, then the exchange rate will go up. 3. Inflation The exchange rates will increase. Because of the decline of the purchasing power of dollar, the demand of foreign currencies will go up. 4. Government provides tax breaks and other incentives for capital spending The exchange rate will decrease. Because these fiscal tools lead to a increasing purchasing power of dollar. 5. Good stock market performance (Dow Jones Index goes up) The exchange rates will decrease. Because the good stock market performance attract more foreign investors to buy dollars. 6. Government announcements an intention to intervene in foreign exchange markets to weaken a currency. The exchange rate will decrease. Because the currency which is weakened, the foreign exchange rate will decrease relatively...
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...Problem set 1 (*optional items) Questions and problems on global firms and governance, international monetary systems, forex markets, and parities. Global firms and governance: 1. How would you define and measure multinational corporations? A firm is called a MNC if it has controlling real assets or operating facilities in multiple countries. Operationally, it can be measured by the extent of “foreign content,” proxied by foreign sales ratios, foreign asset ratios, and foreign employee ratios, or their averages, augmented by the number of countries in which the firm has operations. 2. Define greenfield investment versus foreign direct investment. FDI involves corporate investments in real assets located aboard and includes both greenfield investment and international mergers and acquisitions. The greenfield investment involves construction of plants and equipment or R&D facilities from the scratch. 3. ESM13, chapter 2, question 8. Labor Unions. In Germany and Scandinavia, among others, labor unions have representation on boards of directors or supervisory boards. How might such union representation be viewed under the shareholder wealth maximization model compared to the corporate wealth maximization model? Labor union representation that may be required by statute is an example of governmental direction toward the corporate stakeholder model (or corporate wealth maximization model), in that such a requirement is...
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...(suggested length of 2–4 pages) in which you explain how foreign exchange markets facilitate international trade. In your essay: A. Differentiate between the nominal exchange rate and the real exchange rate. The nominal exchange rate is the rate at which a person can trade the currency of one country for the currency of another. For example: The dollar/yen exchange rate is the number of dollars you can get foe each yen. The real exchange rate is the level of the exchange rate factoring in inflation differences. It’s used to measure the price of foreign goods in price levels and not just in currency adjusted terms. B. Explain the theory of purchasing power parity (PPP). The principle that a unit of currency will purchase the same basket of goods anywhere in the world (Cecchetti, 2011, p. 239). PPP is useful when the currency purchasing power of two countries varies drastically, when goods are available. For example: A box of cigarettes that sells for a $1.50 in Canada should cost a $1.00 in the U.S when the exchange rate between Canada and the U.S. is $1.50. As a result both boxes of cigarettes should cost a $1.00 in the U.S. PPP solves this by calculating the price of the box of cigarettes so the price is the same when calculated in the USD/CAD currency. C. Identify at least three primary factors that influence the supply and demand for a country’s goods. 1. Discuss how each factor can affect exchange rates. The price that consumers will pay for imported goods and...
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...IMPACT OF OIL TRADE ON EXCHANGE RATE OF INDIA Introduction India in the 21st century is one of the fastest growing countries of the world. Oil being the bloodline of the growing economy, is a necessary commodity and has a very inelastic demand, steadily growing with time. In 2011, India was the fourth largest energy consumer in the world after the United States, China, and Russia. India's economy grew at an annual rate of approximately 7 percent since 2000 and proved relatively resilient to the 2008 global financial crisis. India was the 10th largest economy in the world in 2011, as measured by nominal gross domestic product (GDP). In the International Energy Outlook 2011, EIA projects India and China to account for the biggest share of Asian energy demand growth through 2035. India is heavily dependent on crude oil imported from the Middle East and imports more than 70% of its domestic demand. Due to a stagnation of domestic production, the import of crude has gone up from 11.68 million tons (mt) in 1970–1971 to 196 mt in 2007–2008. Oil import bill for India in 2007–2008 was $144.93 billion. With the high demand of oil and other petroleum, and their fluctuating price in the global markets, we are at a very high risk of foreign exchange risk. With so much purchase of energy imports, it might lead to exchange rate movements. And the volatility in the exchange rates (caused by the oil price volatility) may have severe effects on the economy, especially on infrastructural projects...
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...The relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in China Mengyuan Chen Illinois Wesleyan University Dec 10, 2012 Abstract This paper uses the data of RMB exchange rates and stock market prices in China from 1994 to 2011 to estimate the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates. There are two major theories concerning the relationship. According to the portfolio balance effect, these two variables should be negatively related; in addition, according to the international trading effect theory, these two variables should be positively related. The linear regression model is adopted to observe the various relationships between stock and foreign exchange markets. The results confirmed my hypothesis, which indicates that the international trading effect is more dominant, thus the net effect is a positive causal relationship from exchange rates to stock prices. I. Introduction Within the emerging Chinese market, China now has more open policies and advanced financial market instruments to promote globalization. For example, China started to allow the RMB to float within a larger daily range in 2005 and brought derivative options into the stock market. These significant steps all suggest that China is beginning to face a new economic condition. For instance, the challenging policy making of RMB exchange rate is one. Exchange rates and stock prices are both key indicators of the economy and financial markets. So the relationship between those two becomes an...
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...The exchange rate fluctuations in India has been a topic of apprehension for the policy makers and common public. The exchange rate system in India, known as managed float, has evolved through a long process of probing for an suitable policy system for India. in view of the fact that exchange rates are relative prices of two currencies it is generally exaggerated by the relative productivity differential and real wage rates in the long-run. However, the bubbles arising out of assumption plays a major role in influencing the exchange rates in the short-run. The present state of affairs about the exchange rate fluctuations in India has been caused to a large extent by the worsening current account balance and the unfavorable expectations related with it. On the other hand, the question of interference by the government in the exchange rate market should be decided on the foundation of the impact of such exchange rate fluctuations on the real effective exchange rate and the likely effects on the employment situation in the country. There are an array of factors affecting the exchange rate fluctuations like interest rate, balance of trade, money supply, economic growth, foreign debt, inflation etc. India has seen a huge breakdown of the Rupee because of the adverse affects of these factors on the Indian currency. Mentioned below are the various sectors being affected by the Rupee depreciation. Fuel Price: India imports most of its oil consumption. As a result of dwindling of...
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...Chapter Exchange Rate Determination and Forecasting QUESTIONS 1. What is the difference between the ex ante and the ex post real interest rate? 10 Answer: The ex post interest rate corrects the nominal interest rate with the realized or ex post rate of inflation; whereas the ex-ante (or expected) real interest rate corrects the nominal interest rate for expected inflation. As a lender, you care about the real return on your investment, which is the return that measures your increase in purchasing power between two periods of time. If you invest $1, you sacrifice $1 1+i real goods now, where P(t) is the price level. In 1 year, you get back , where i is the P(t) P(t+1) nominal rate of interest. We calculate the real return by dividing the real amount you get back by the real amount that you invest. Thus, if rep is the ex post real rate of return and ex post real interest rate, we have 1 + r ep ⎛ 1+i ⎞ ⎜ P(t+1) ⎟ ⎠ = (1 + i ) = ⎝ ⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎛ P(t+1) ⎞ ⎜ P(t) ⎟ ⎜ P(t) ⎟ ⎝ ⎠ ⎝ ⎠ Notice that the real rate of interest depends on the realization of the rate of inflation because P(t + 1)/P(t) = 1 + π(t + 1), where π(t + 1) is the rate of inflation between time t and t + 1. For simplicity, we drop the time notation and simply write 1 + r ep = If we subtract 1 from each side, we have (1 + i) (1 + π) r ep = which is often approximated as (1 + i) (1 + π) i-π = (1 + π) (1 + π) (1 + π) rep = i – π The approximation involves ignoring the term (1 + π) in the denominator...
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...factors constrain the ability of banks to create money? There are 3 factors constrain the ability of banks to create money: 1. The monetary base 2. Desired reserves 3. Desired currency holding Question 2 Provide short answers to the following: (a) Explain how the money market determines the nominal interest rate. The nominal interest rate on other assets minus the nominal interest rate on money is the opportunity cost of holding money. (b) Discuss in detail how an open market purchase of securities by the Reserve Bank impacts the money market in the short run. Starting from a short-run equilibrium, if the Reserve Bank increases the quantity of money, people find themselves holding more money than the quantity demanded. With a surplus of money holding, people enter the loanable funds market and buy bonds. (c) Explain how the money market then moves back to equilibrium in the long run. What has happened to the interest rate and price level in the long run? First, the nominal interest rate falls. The real interest rate falls too, as people try to get rid of their excess money holdings and buy bonds. With a lower real interest rate, people want to borrow and spend more. Firms want to borrow to invest and households want to borrow to invest in bigger homes or to buy more consumer goods. The increase in the demand for goods cannot be met by an increase in supply because...
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