Having to learn of the existence of a tool called scenario analysis was itself a blessing for me.
Scenario planning affords us the opportunity to make decisions in context of various futures that may play out. It incites us to challenge our assumptions about the future. By basing our plans and decisions in line with the most likely scenario, we can be ensured that our decision are sound even if conditions change
According to Ged Davis “the use of scenarios does not imply we will be absolutely right – we only need to be less surprised than those who are not thinking in this light … ideally, to be able to interpret what others see as crises as normal human affairs”.
Scenario planning can be applied at the work place, it can also be applied to one’s personal life.
I decided to include in this report a demonstration of how scenario planning can be applied at the work place. The following steps illustrate this
1. Problem definition – The problem in this case is how a particular project in the company can be completed within budget at the end of the scenario horizon i.e. end of 2016
2. Data gathering – The next thing to do is to identify trends, factors that may affect the plan. Here I am looking at trends such as the political situation in the company - will there be prolonged strikes at some point? How will this affect the plan? Another point to consider is cost of hire? Will this go up during the course of the year? Or will the schedule be affected due to unavailability of labour or delay in delivery of materials?
I summarise my factors as thus:
A. Political Situation of the country (will there will be prolonged strikes?)
B. Will the cost of labour go up and reduce?
C. Will there be delay in delivery of materials (from abroad) needed for the project?
D. Will there be availability of labour with required skill set?
E.
3. Factor classification - uncertainties & certainties:
Factors and trends are classified on the bases of the probability of playing out eventually. They are classified as thus:
Certainties: D, C
Uncertainties: A, B
4. Develop Scenarios -
Since I will be developing two scenarios, I am choosing factor B which in this case has the highest uncertainty and highest impact. The next step is to draw up moderately bad outcome and moderately good outcome, then intertwine these with the certainties and then develop the scenario stories.
Scenario 1 - Things run smoothly during the course of the of project, materials arrive on time from abroad, labour is readily available at the right cost

Scenario 2 – Project runs into problem due to delay in materials expected from abroad. Labour is available but no materials to work with.
5. Use information gathered from the scenario to Plan:
There is no point carrying out a scenario analysis if we aren’t going to put information gotten to good use. The action taken after the process is what separate people who perform scenario analysis from people who don’t.
In this case, my course of action will be to split my orders(materials) in two – Order A will be sourced locally maybe at a slightly higher cost , Order B – will be sourced abroad. If scenario 1 plays out, all well and good. If scenario 2 is what eventually plays out, the project will not be totally blocked due to delay in arrival of materials from abroad.
Observation
In my opinion, the scenario process is highly subjective, from the development of driving force outcomes to selecting the driving force cluster with the highest probability/impact. The output of the process is largely dependent on the perception of the participants. This implies that it is normal to have several groups working on the same scenario problem come up with quite different scenarios and consequently, different action plans.
Course Benefit
The EIBE course and the scenario planning process was a means to an end for me, due to the extensive engaging nature of the course I was able to develop my facilitation skills and as well improve on my self confidence.
I was able to facilitate a few of our several meetings. The brainstorming nature of the course gave me the opportunity to engage more with my colleagues, these made me a little more confident.
During each of the iterations, we had a challenge with arriving at decisions on time, our brainstorming sessions were unnecessary long – we argued and deliberated unnecessary about almost everything, even coming up with names for the various scenarios was a challenge. What I and another person in the group did was work together on certain aspect of the scenario planning process and then presented our feedback to the rest on the group for their critique. This strategy worked as we able to gain the speed needed to close the project, completing the course work would have been difficult if we had stuck to the previous approach. This for me was a lesson, to always look for way out of every impasse. As a boss of mine usually says “If you want to fail, find an excuse, and if you want to succeed find a way”