Case Study 6: Assessment of Economic Exposure 1. How will Blades be negatively affected by the high level of inflation in Thailand if the Thai customer renews its commitment for another three years?
ANSWER: If the Thai customer renews its commitment for another three years, the price Blades receives in baht would continue to be fixed. Conversely, Blades’ cost of goods sold incurred in Thailand would be subject to the high level of inflation in Thailand. In addition, the high inflation may cause the baht to depreciate, which would reduce the dollars received from baht-denominated sales to Thailand.

2. Holt believes that the Thai importer will renew its commitment in two years. Do you think his assessment is correct? Why or why not? Also, assume that the Thai economy returns to the high growth level that existed prior to the recent unfavorable economic events. Under this assumption, how likely is it that the Thai importer will renew its commitment in two years?
ANSWER: Before renewing its commitment to purchase a fixed number of products at a fixed price from Blades, the Thai importer would have to assess the advantages and disadvantages of such an arrangement. If the Thai level of inflation continues to be high, the retailer has the advantage of incurring costs denominated in baht that are not subject to the high level of inflation. However, if consumers in Thailand continue to reduce their spending on leisure products, the Thai firm may not be able to sell all of the products it has purchased from Blades. If the Thai economy returns to a high growth level, the Thai customer will probably renew its commitment. This is because it can be reasonably certain that it will sell all of the products it has committed itself to purchase from Blades. Furthermore, the costs it incurs are still not subject to the high level of inflation prevailing in Thailand.

3. For each of the three possible values of the Thai baht and the British pound, use a spreadsheet to construct a pro forma income statement for the next year. Briefly comment on the level of Blades’economic exposure.
ANSWER: (See spreadsheet attached.) Blades, Inc. does not appear to be subject to a high level of economic exposure based on the analysis. Nevertheless, a depreciation of the Thai baht by 10 percent to an average level of $.0198 over the year would decrease its earnings before taxes by approximately 5 percent. Thus, Blades, Inc. is subject to some economic exposure. 4. Now repeat your analysis in question 3 but assume that the British pound and the Thai baht are perfectly correlated. For example, if the baht depreciates by 5 percent, the pound will also depreciate by 5 percent. Under this assumption, is Blades subject to a greater degree of economic exposure? Why or why not?
ANSWER: (See spreadsheet attached.) If the British pound and the Thai baht are perfectly correlated, Blades’ level of economic exposure increases. This is because Blades generates inflows in both pounds and baht. Under this scenario, a depreciation of the pound and the baht by10 percent would reduce Blades’ earnings before taxes by approximately 11 percent.

5. Based on your answers to the previous three questions, what actions could Blades take to reduce its level of economic exposure to Thailand?
ANSWER: There are several actions Blades could take. The analysis above illustrates that economic exposure can be reduced by conducting its international business in countries whose currencies are not highly correlated. Thus, Blades could be exporting to or importing from other countries besides Thailand and the United Kingdom. Another action Blades could take is to borrow in baht, which would reduce the number of baht that would have to be converted to dollars, as the baht receivables could be used to repay to baht-denominated loans. The borrowed funds could then be converted to dollars to pay for U.S. supplies. However, the high level of interest rates may not make this a feasible alternative. To further reduce its economic exposure, Blades could also buy more supplies from Thailand instead of the U.S. in order to create more cash outflows in baht. This would further reduce the level of economic exposure, as more baht revenues could be used to buy Thai supplies. However, the success of this approach depends on the impact of the high level of inflation in Thailand on market prices for the imported components.