...Population Research 2013 (Vol. 11), pp. 295–323 Determinants of exceptional human longevity: new ideas and findings Leonid A. Gavrilov and Natalia S. Gavrilova∗ Abstract Studies of centenarians are useful in identifying factors leading to long life and avoidance of fatal diseases. In this article we consider several approaches to study effects of early-life and midlife conditions on survival to advanced ages: use of non-biological relatives as controls, the within-family analysis, as well as a sampling of controls from the same population universe as centenarians. These approaches are illustrated using data on American centenarians, their relatives and unrelated shorterlived controls obtained from the online genealogies. The within-family analysis revealed that young maternal age at person’s birth is associated with higher chances of exceptional longevity. Comparison of centenarians and their shorter-lived peers (died at age 65 and sampled from the same pool of online genealogies) confirmed that birth timing in the second half of the calendar year predicts survival to age 100. Parental longevity as well as some childhood and midlife characteristics also proved to be significant predictors of exceptional longevity. 1 Introduction Studies of centenarians (people living to 100 and older) could be useful in identifying factors leading to long life and avoidance of fatal diseases. Even if some individual characteristics have a moderate protective effect on the risk of death, people...
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...Social Security at 80: Time to Retire? or Revise In 2015, America’s Social Security System turns 80 years old. The original act was a landmark bill, as it was the establishment of America’s safety net. The promise of the act was to ensure that America’s retirees would have some protection from poverty. Since the Social Security Act of 1935 was passed, the social safety net has been expanded to cover additional groups and classes of people. The most important additional programs established being MediCare and MedicAid. After years of running a surplus, Social Security has reached an inflection point. At the current rate of drawdown, the trust fund will run dry, and Social Security will begin to operate as a pay-as-you-go program, potentially only paying 75% of promised benefit levels. This paper will discuss the history of Social Security, demographic and technological trends that affect Social Security, the future implications of these trends for Social Security, and possible solutions. A Brief History of Social Security Social Security as we know it today evolved from the Social Security Act of 1935. Under the terms of the original law, Social Security benefits only applied to the employee. Today, Social Security pays benefits to the employee, the spouse, and the disabled and contains the provision for what is known as Medicaid and Medicare. When compared to today’s law, the scope of the original version of the Social Security Act was much narrower. For example...
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...2010 Fourth International Conference on Network and System Security Security-oriented Workflows for the Social Sciences Prof. Richard O. Sinnott, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, 3010, Australia, rsinnott@unimelb.edu.au Sardar Hussain National e-Science Centre University of Glasgow, Glasgow G122 8QQ, Scotland s.hussain@nesc.gla.ac.uk Abstract — The service-oriented computing paradigm and its application to support e-Infrastructures offers, at least in principle, the opportunity to realise platforms for multi- and inter-disciplinary research. Augmenting the service-oriented model for e-Research are mechanisms for services to be coupled and enacted in a coordinated manner through workflow environments. Typically workflows capture a research process that can be shared and repeated by others. However, existing models of workflow definition and enactment assume that services are directly available and can be accessed and invoked by arbitrary users or enactment engines. In more security-oriented domains, such assumptions rarely hold true. Rather in many domains, service providers demand to be autonomous and define and enforce their own service / resource access control using locally defined policy enforcement points (PEP) and policy decision points (PDP) which allow access and usage of resources to be strictly monitored and enforced. In this paper, we outline how it is possible to support security-oriented workflow definition and enactment through chaining...
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...Table of Contents Availability Bias 2 Overreaction Bias 6 Research Report Analysis 8 Illustrations 12 Conclusion 14 Bibliography 15 Availability Bias Availability bias is a human cognitive bias that causes us to overestimate probabilities of events associated with memorable or dramatic occurrences. A cognitive bias is a pattern of deviation in judgment that occurs in particular situations. A cognitive bias can also be explained as a flaw in judgment which is caused by memory, social attribution, and statistical errors. Since, memorable events are further magnified by coverage in the media; the bias is compounded on the society level. Two well-known examples would be estimations of the probability of plane accidents and the kidnap of children. Both events are quite rare, but the huge majority of the population outrageously overestimates their probability, and behaves accordingly. In reality, one is more likely to die from an auto accident than from a plane accident, and a child has a higher risk of dying in an accident than the risk of getting kidnapped. Availability bias is at the root of many other human biases and culture-level effects. Availability bias is a cognitive illusion. The availability biasis a mental shortcut that occurs when people make judgments about the probability of events by how easy it is to think of examples. The availability bias operates on the notion that, "if you can think of it, it must be important...
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...Illegal Immigration and Border Policy In recent years, Illegal immigration has been a contemporary political and social debate. It has been the platform of many politicians, especially in the southwest, and it is often a popular subject in news media. People in favor of strict immigration policy often claim that illegal immigrants are costly to the American economy and that they take American jobs. The border control policy is ineffective, it is often too costly for its effectiveness. Border policies have increased the number of immigrant deaths in the deserts of border states. Not only that but the US/Mexico border is harmful to the environment. The anti-immigration policy that's currently in effect goes against a rich cultural history in North America. Lastly, popular arguments made for strict immigration will be brought to light. In 2006, George W. Bush signed H.R. 6061, also known as the Secure Fence Act, in an attempt to increase border security and expand the US/Mexico Border. Prompted by heightened national security measures after 9/11, the bill was designed to "help protect the American people" and marked " an important step toward immigration reform" (Bush 2006). The bill doubled funding for border security, increasing expenditures from $4.6 billion in 2001 to $10.4 billion in 2006. This money went to "[authorize] the construction of hundreds of miles of additional fencing along our Southern border" and to "[deploy] thousands of National Guard members to assist...
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...to make changes of existing technology. This fact points the need to document every aspect of computer system. Attention should be turned towards reduced need to understand the technicalities, which the system developers bothered with in order to design and implement a new system. The activities of hospital which includes personal record, drug inventory, disease inventory, death statistics and birth statistics keeps on growing from time to time due to apparent population explosion. These areas can benefit from the information technology tool called computer. The control and management of the data call for database management system (DBMS), which handle structure data that will store manual on card index or cabinet containing files, (Muzzi M, 2010). BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY Birth and death records are probably the most valuable source of archive information when trying to unravel family history in England and Wales. Until the summer of 1837, the main source of this information for England and Wales were parish records-details kept books. However in 1836 an act was published requiring that all births and deaths be registered. The idea was that a uniform and consistent system of recording would be...
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...WELINGKAR INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT DEVELOPMENT & RESEARCH SPECIALISATION PROJECT ON ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT OPTIONS BY MAHIMA SUHALKA PGDM RM 2014 – 2016 (FINANACE SPECIALISATION) ROLL NO. 48 PROJECT FACULTY GUIDE PROF. PRITI SAMANT PROJECT COMPLETION CERTIFICATE This is to certify that project titled “Analysis of Investment Options” is successfully done by Ms. Mahima Suhalka in partial fulfilment of her two years full time course ‘Post Graduation Diploma in Management’ recognized by AICTE through the Prin. L. N. Welingkar Institute of Management Development & Research, Matunga, Mumbai. This project has been completed under my guidance. ___________________________ (Signature of Faculty Guide) Name: ______________________ Date: ______________________ Acknowledgement I take this opportunity to express my sincere gratitude to everyone who supported me throughout the course of this PGDM project. I am thankful for their aspiring guidance, invaluably constructive criticism and honest advice during the project work. I express my warm thanks to Prof. Priti Samant, my project guide who provided me with critical insights on this project and helped me make this a success. I would also like to acknowledge the help of all my friends and respondents who enabled me to conduct this research project. Thank You All!! Table of Contents Chapter 1 Introduction ...
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...Executive Summary Europe: The aging trend in Europe is in most place they are growing older. According to the European Commission (2012) “while the population of Europe will be slightly higher in 2060 (517 million, up from 502 million in 2010), the population will be much older. While longer lives are indeed a great achievement the aging of the population also poses significant challenges for the economies”. The share of those aged 15-64 is projected to decline from 67% to 56% while those aged 65 and over is projected to rise from 17% to 30%. This will cause Europe to go from have four people of working age to each aged over 65 to a mere two people of working age (European Commission, 2012). ● “The total number of workers is projected to decline by 15.7 million over the forecast horizon to 195.6 million in 2060. ● The decline in the workforce will act as a drag on growth and per capita income, with a consequent trend decline in potential growth. The latter is estimated to converge to below 1,5% in real terms in the long-term in the EU. Moreover, the demographic changes are expected to have substantial consequences on public finances in the EU. ● On the basis of current policies, age-related public expenditures (pensions, health-care and long-term care) are projected to increase by 4.1 percentage points to around to around 29% of GDP between 2010 and 2060”. The economics of depopulation are dark. At full employment, the real GDP has a good chance of declining...
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...1990 as independent, empirically grounded analyses of major development issues, trends and policies. Additional resources related to the 2014 Human Development Report can be found online at http://hdr.undp.org, including complete editions or summaries of the Report in more than 20 languages, a collection of papers commissioned for the 2014 Report, interactive maps and databases of national human development indicators, full explanations of the sources and methodologies employed in the Report’s human development indices, country profiles and other background materials as well as previous global, regional and national Human Development Reports. Human Development Report 2014 Sustaining Human Progress: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Building Resilience Empowered lives. Resilient nations. Published for the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development Reports 1990–2014 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007/2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 Concept and Measurement of Human Development Financing Human Development Global Dimensions of Human Development People’s Participation New Dimensions of Human Security Gender and Human Development Economic Growth and Human Development Human Development to Eradicate Poverty Consumption for Human Development Globalization with a Human Face Human Rights and Human Development Making New Technologies Work for Human Development Deepening Democracy in a Fragmented World Millennium...
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...Steps for Writing a Term Paper LIBRARY GUIDE A TERM PAPER is a concisely written, documented paper of reasonable length in which a student identifies, analyzes, interprets, and draws conclusions from the facts and opinions of other people. A term paper requires a student to obtain information from a variety of sources (i.e., special subject indexes, encyclopedias and dictionaries, reference books, scholarly journals, books, and newspapers) and then place it in logically developed ideas. There are nine steps in writing a term paper, which will be illustrated with brief examples. Step 1: Select a Subject Step 2: Narrow the Subject into a Topic Step 3: State the Objective Step 4: Make a Preliminary Bibliography Step 5: Prepare a tentative Working Outline Step 6: Take Notes Step 7: Prepare a Final Outline Step 8: Write a Draft Step 10: Prepare Final Copy STEP 1: SELECT A SUBJECT To select a subject for a term paper, ask yourself the following questions: • • • • • Am I interested in the subject? Is the subject appropriate for my class? Is the subject too broad? too limited? Is the subject manageable in terms of length and deadline for completing the paper? Is the subject likely to be covered adequately in books, journals, or newspapers? your answers should be YES to most of these questions. Try to choose a subject you are interested in and will enjoy researching. In some courses, your instructor may give you a choice from a list of suggested topics. If you do not have a choice...
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...Steps for Writing a Term Paper LIBRARY GUIDE A TERM PAPER is a concisely written, documented paper of reasonable length in which a student identifies, analyzes, interprets, and draws conclusions from the facts and opinions of other people. A term paper requires a student to obtain information from a variety of sources (i.e., special subject indexes, encyclopedias and dictionaries, reference books, scholarly journals, books, and newspapers) and then place it in logically developed ideas. There are nine steps in writing a term paper, which will be illustrated with brief examples. Step 1: Select a Subject Step 2: Narrow the Subject into a Topic Step 3: State the Objective Step 4: Make a Preliminary Bibliography Step 5: Prepare a tentative Working Outline Step 6: Take Notes Step 7: Prepare a Final Outline Step 8: Write a Draft Step 10: Prepare Final Copy STEP 1: SELECT A SUBJECT To select a subject for a term paper, ask yourself the following questions: • • • • • Am I interested in the subject? Is the subject appropriate for my class? Is the subject too broad? too limited? Is the subject manageable in terms of length and deadline for completing the paper? Is the subject likely to be covered adequately in books, journals, or newspapers? your answers should be YES to most of these questions. Try to choose a subject you are interested in and will enjoy researching. In some courses, your instructor may give you a choice from a list of suggested...
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...Non-Traditional Security in Bangladesh: Issues and Outlooks Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BIISS) Following is an attempt to analyze the challenges in the field of non-traditional security issues and explore relevant outlooks dealing with these challenges in the context of Bangladesh. 1. Threats to Societal Security Inflow of Small Arms and Drug: This is an external or trans-national source. Estimates differ and perhaps will be less than what is happening in the context of India or Pakistan. But it is causing security threats to the state and the society, for at least two reasons: first, the rate is increasing at an alarming pace; second, Bangladesh is a soft state and a soft society, the impact is easily felt.[i] Use of small arms, use of drugs are gaining autonomous proportion in the sense the administration and law enforcing agencies have practically little control over the trafficking and use. Law and Order and Social Violence: The south western districts are again becoming restless following increase in the number of incidences of killings and overrunning of police posts by the outlawed and extremists who seem to be reemerging from the banned parties like Purba Banglar Communist Party and Biplobi Communist Party in the southwestern districts.[ii] The northern districts in recent months have been subjected to terrorist attack.[iii] One of the horrendous crimes in recent times was the slaughtering of six persons in a village...
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...64 Management Insight INDIAN FUTURES MARKET : AN ANALYSIS Agha Nuruzzaman* ABSTRACT The Indian government’s efforts are directed towards the establishment of a free, fair, transparent and fully informed market with help of the Futures market, so that futures prices are truly determined by the forces of demand and supply. In the long term, the continuing rapid growth of economy in India creates a huge potential for Futures market. This study is an effort to understand the factors under PEST Analysis. For this purpose, data from different sources were collected and later analyzed by using statistical techniques. With an improving agriculture, widening scope of education, a balanced economy, friendlier infrastructure, vividly sketched out laws unstained by any kind of corruption will create the right climate for swift growth of the futures market. The PEST analysis shows that most of the factors considered are indeed going in favour of India’s futures market. INTRODUCTION A futures contract is a legally binding agreement to buy or sell a commodity or financial instrument sometime in the future at a price agreed upon at the time of the trade. While actual physical delivery of the underlying assets seldom takes place, futures contracts are nonetheless standardized according to delivery specifications, including the quality, quantity, and time and location. The only variable is price, which is discovered through the trading process. In this study we ...
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...Frankfurt School of Finance & Management Intercultural Management Uncertainty Avoidance By Arina Hadlich Alok Mani Tripathi Program: Master of International Business June, 2013 Contents Essence of Uncertainty Avoidance 3 Uncertainty Avoidance Index 3 Uncertainty Avoidance and Anxiety 4 Uncertainty Avoidance According to Occupation, Gender and Age 5 Uncertainty Avoidance in the Family 5 Uncertainty Avoidance Health and (Un)happiness 6 Uncertainty Avoidance at School 6 Uncertainty Avoidance in Shopping 6 Sources 7 Introduction We live in the age of rapid globalization. New technology has shrunk the size of the world. The world has become a small state with a few big cities, few towns and villages. The cities are markets for the products form towns and villages, and vice versa. This shrinking in size has brought people from different cultures and backgrounds to work together under the same umbrella. Wherever you go, even the smallest of the company has people from different cultural backgrounds. This mixing of so many cultures at workplace has come up to be challenge for the modern organizations. The modern managers or leaders find it difficult to make a decision for their team, which comprises of people from different cultural and educational backgrounds. There is always a problem of synchronization within the team, which is faced by a modern leader. Since different statements are perceived differently in different cultures, the problem of miscommunication...
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...Disarmament, when not threatening the security of the concerned nation, results in a decrease in military expenditure, reduced global tensions, increased safety and in turn, greater international cooperation and stability. Development, by means of achieving social and economic progress and reducing poverty, increases the wellbeing and stability of nations, hence reducing the need for armaments. Hence, this combination of stability and security provides the basis for the relationship between disarmament and development. This relationship has long since been determined; yet, there are many obstacles, political and non-political, which have deterred the progress of these processes. The reason disarmament has a positive effect on development is the ill effects of armaments or weapons. Weapons can have detrimental effects on development of a country. They can lead to destruction of land, unemployment, increased health care costs, crime, costs of damage, environmental degradation, resource depletion, reduced efficiency of people, increased poverty and class distinctions in society. Hence, through disarmament, these ill effects can be prevented, leading to the possibility of development. A major factor affecting the relationship between disarmament and development is security, the “third pillar in the disarmament-development relationship”1. Security, both on a regional and international level, is essential for both disarmament and development. Lack of security...
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