Industry Market Trends
Many casual dining restaurants, like TGI Fridays, are preparing for a gradual decrease in sales growth fueled by the Baby Boomer generation. As this demographic begins to taper, restaurants are looking for ways to appeal to a younger demographic, 15- to 30-year olds, who may be craving different menu items or eating at nontraditional times.
Fast casual is one of the fastest-growing segments in the restaurant industry. Fast casual’s year-over-year traffic rose 6 percent in 2011. Consumers are trading down to quick-service and fast casual outlets in favor of their convenience and value. Gen Y, a demographic that is “entering their prime dining-out years,” favors the quality and value perceptions of fast casual options.
In response, restaurants are revamping interiors to be more modern, rethinking marketing with new social media campaigns and revising menus to cater to a younger flavor palate. Other restaurants are focusing on to-go menus that appeal to this younger generation’s on-the-go lifestyle.
Competitive Trends * Brands * Product * Generic * Total Budget
Technological Trends
Restaurant operators have data tools at their fingertips that help them understand their customers and the effectiveness of their marketing messages. Data from social media, public relations, email marketing and advertising can help operators evaluate strategies and plan for the future. However, first casual dining chains must break down the walls of traditional departments like marketing and public relations to develop a holistic plan for analysis across multiple departments.
Economic Trends
With high unemployment rates, real estate troubles, increasing oil prices and a volatile stock market, consumer confidence levels are expected to remain stagnant in 2012. Predicted GDP growth in 2012 is modest, between 2 and 3 percent. Although consumer behavior is often difficult to forecast, analysts have found a close relationship between restaurant traffic and consumer confidence levels. 2009 and 2010 marked an unprecedented trend of eight consecutive quarters of declining traffic for the casual dining industry. In 2011, operators saw some relief with positive numbers, but analysts foresee 2012 as another sluggish year for the casual dining industry. Technomic predicts a 2.5 percent nominal growth and zero real growth in 2012. Similarly, the NPD Group predicts a 1.4 percent growth in checks and a 0.07 percent growth in traffic for 2012. Market analysts from Barclays predict “2012 will look very much like 2011 for the restaurant industry”. Looking long term, the NPD Group reports that “the restaurant industry is not forecasted to grow more than 1 percent a year over the next decade”. Despite sluggish industry growth predictions, restaurant operators are optimistic about sales in 2012. At the end of 2011, operators saw modest increases in same-store sales, but in November chains saw an average of 1.1 percent decrease in guest traffic, a concerning figure looking forward to 2012. In a survey of restaurant operators at the end of 2011, operators expected a strong holiday season to help ring in the new year. Two out of five American adults reported that they “are not using restaurants as often as they would like. In a study by the NPD Group, 76 percent of restaurant patrons self-identified as “controlled spenders”. With only so much money available for discretionary spending, when consumers do go out to eat, they expect value and quality in terms of food, service and atmosphere.

Political, Legal, and Regulatory Trends
Cultural/Societal/Demographic Trends