Geopolitics of Thailand
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction 2
Geographic location in Asia 2

Economy of Thailand 2

Demographic 2

Culture 3 China and Thailand 3
What China would want from Thailand 3 What are the Chinese needs ? 3 What can Thailand provides to China in this optic ? 4
China and Thailand relationships 5 Thailand and its neighbours 7
ASEAN7
Myanmar8
Laos 8
Cambodia 8
Vietnam 9
Thailand and USA9
Relations threw the history9
Economic relations10
Current bilateral issues 11
Strategies11
Geopolitical imperatives11 Strategies with historical evolution 12
Conclusion 15
Bibliography 15
I. Introduction
1.1 Geographic location in Asia

Totaling 513,120 km² Thailand is the world's 51st-largest country by total area. 1.2 Economy of Thailand
Thailand is an emerging economy and considered as a newly industrialized country.It exports an increasing value of over $105 billion worth of goods and services annually.> Thai rice, textiles and footwear, fishery products, rubber, jewellery, cars, computers and electrical appliances.
Its Substantial industries are : electric appliances, tourism (6%), sex tourism and prostitution…It also has a GDP worth US$602 billion. This classifies Thailand as the 2nd largest economy in Southeast Asia, after Indonesia.It is the 4th richest nation according to GDP per capita, after Singapore, Brunei and Malaysia.
Finally the IMF has predicted that the Thai economy will rebound strongly from the low 0.1% GDP growth in to 7.5% in 2013 thanks to the accommodative monetary policy of the Bank of Thailand and the actual policy. 1.3 Demographic
Thailand is approximately 67.5 million people, with an annual growth rate of about 0.3 percent. In addition to Thai, it includes ethnic Chinese, Malay, Lao, Burma, Cambodia, and Indians, among others.
About the ethnic groups we count Thai 75%, Thai Chinese 14%, other 11%
Thai is the predominant language of most of Thailand. However, certain regions of Thailand speak regional languages and dialects such as Southern, Lanna and Isan. Some Thais speak English as a second language. Thais of Chinese descent often speak Chinese languages.
Theravada Buddhism is the official religion officially of 97% people. Muslims are some 10% and 5% other religions including Christianity, Hinduism, especially among immigrants. 1.4 Culture
The culture of Thailand incorporates cultural beliefs and characteristics indigenous to the area known as modern day Thailand coupled with much influence from ancient India, China, Cambodia, along with the neighboring pre-historic cultures of Southeast Asia. It is influenced primarily by Animism, Hinduism, Buddhism, as well as by later migrations from China, and southern India. I. China and Thailand
2.1 What China would want from Thailand
2.1.1 What are the Chinese needs ?
An unprecedented need for resources is now driving China's foreign policy. A booming domestic economy, rapid urbanization, increased export processing, and the Chinese people's voracious appetite for cars are increasing the country's demand for oil and natural gas, industrial and construction materials, foreign capital and technology. Twenty years ago, China was East Asia's largest oil exporter. Now it is the world's second-largest importer; last year, it alone accounted for 31 percent of global growth in oil demand. Now that China is the workshop of the world, its hunger for electricity and industrial resources has soared. China's combined share of the world's consumption of aluminum, copper, nickel, and iron ore more than doubled within only ten years, from 7 percent in 1990 to 15 percent in 2000; it has now reached about 20 percent and is likely to double again by the end of the decade. Despite calls by Prime Minister Wen Jiabao and other politicians to cut consumption of energy and other resources, there is little sign of this appetite abating.
These new needs already have serious implications for China's foreign policy. Beijing's access to foreign resources is necessary both for continued economic growth and, because growth is the cornerstone of China's social stability, for the survival of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Since China remains a relatively centralized, government-driven economy, Beijing has been able to adapt its foreign policy to its domestic development strategy. Traditional institutions, such as the Foreign Affairs Leading Small Group of the CCP, are still making the key decisions, but a more pluralistic environment is emerging and allowing business leaders to help shape foreign policy. The China Institute for International Studies, a government think tank, holds numerous conferences bringing together academics and leaders in business, the military, and the government to devise strategies for the top rung of the Communist Party.
Partly on these people's advice, Beijing has been encouraging representatives of state-controlled companies to secure exploration and supply agreements with states that produce oil, gas, and other resources. Meanwhile, it has been courting the governments of these states aggressively, building goodwill by strengthening bilateral trade relations, awarding aid, forgiving national debt, and helping build roads, bridges, stadiums, and harbors. In return, China has won access to key resources.

2.2.2 What can Thailand provides to China in this optic
Threw this previous little analysis of China we first need to know if Thailand is in measure to ‘help’ China.
Thailand is rich in natural resources. Among the known mineral deposits are coal, gold, lead, tin, tungsten, manganese, zinc, and precious stones. The rich alluvial soil along the Chao Phraya and other rivers constitutes another important resource. Natural gas deposits were discovered offshore in the 1970s, reducing Thailand's reliance on imported petroleum.
Thailand is one of the world's leading producers of rice, despite the fact that the yield per hectare is low. In the early 1990s Thailand annually produced approximately 18.5 million metric tons of rice. The second most important crop in value is rubber, which is raised mainly on plantations on the Malay Peninsula. In the early 1990s approximately 1.4 million metric tons of rubber were produced each year. Other important crops included cassava (21.1 million metric tons), sugarcane (46.8 million), maize (3.6 million), pineapples (1.9 million), coconuts (1.4 million), and kenaf (161,000), a fiber used in making canvas. Livestock totalled about 6.8 million cattle, 4.8 million buffalo, 5.1 million pigs, and 153 million poultry.
About 28 percent of the total land area of Thailand is forested. The most valuable forest product is hardwood. The annual timber harvest in the early 1990s totaled about 37.6 million cu m (about 1.3 billion cu ft), of which all but 7 percent was burned for fuel. Thailand was a major exporter of teak until a ban on uncontrolled logging was instituted in 1989, following severe flooding as a result of deforestation.
Fishing is rapidly growing in importance to the Thai economy. In the early 1990s the annual catch included 3.1 million metric tons of prawns, fish, and shellfish, and exports of ocean products, particularly prawns, accounted for about 10 percent of export earnings.
The development of extensive natural gas reserves has decreased Thailand's dependence on energy imports. Annual production in the early 1990s was 6.5 billion cu m (230.3 billion cu ft), about 3 percent of the proven reserves. Gemstones, particularly diamonds, are the principal mineral export of Thailand, producing about 3.3 percent of export revenues. The country's chief mineral products included lignite (14.5 million metric tons), zinc ore (496,000), lead concentrates (65,500), tin (14,200), gypsum (7.2 million) and iron ore (240,100).
Its natural resources , its gas reserve and its fishing economy may catch the attention of China.

2.2 China and Thailand relationships Sino-Thai developed positively in 1978 when China continued backing Thailand during Cambodia's internal conflict whereby communist forces from Vietnam ousted the Khmer Rouge from power and threaten the security of South East Asia. Sino-Thai relations continue to develop as trade became the dominant theme in bilateral relations. Thailand continues to support the One China Policy and maintains unofficial relations with Taiwan . This helps Thailand gain access to capital and the huge Chinese mainland market. The bilateral trade relations have grown from year to year. Sino-Thailand bilateral trade volume in 1999 was of US $4.22 billion .Trade volume between the two countries reached 36.2 billion dollars in 2008 .China's transformation into a major economic power in the 21st century has led to an increase of foreign investments in the bamboo network a network of overseas Chinese businesses operating in the markets of Southeast Asia that share common family and cultural ties. China's export to Thailand were computer components, electrical motors, consumer electronics, machinery, metal products, chemicals and clothing. Thailand's export to China were computer components, rubber, refined oil, plastic pellets, chemical electronics, crude oil, wood products and food. China is Thailand's second largest export market. She is also Thailand's largest importer of goods into the country in 2010.They have signed a Free trade agreement back in 2003 which covered agricultural products. A comprehensive agreement is still pending negotiations. China has planned to create China City Complex in Thailand to boost trade and get around trade barriers in the ASEAN region as well as other large foreign Markets which Thailand has trade agreements with such as the United States and European Union. China takes advantage of the ASEAN-China free trade area which came into effect January 1, 2010 which allows its goods to be exported through ASEAN countries with zero or reduced trade barriers.

II. Thailand and its neighbour

Here is the map of Thailand’s neighbours we can see that the concerned countries are : Myanmar ,Laos , Cambodia and Vietnam . 3.1 ASEAN Thailand’s “local” foreign policy with fellow Southeast Asian nations who make up ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Brunei Darussalam, Vietnam, Laos, Burma, and Cambodia) consists of a web of complicated relations. As one of the largest and most economically developed of the ASEAN countries, Thailand has much to gain for promoting ASEAN’s significance in global affairs. With its favorable geographic location and broad-based economy, Thailand has traditionally been considered among the most likely countries to play a major leadership role in Southeast Asia and has been an aggressive advocate of increased economic integration in the region. Bangkok has developed strong relations with its mainland Southeast Asian neighbors through infrastructure assistance and other aid. In turn, Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia provide raw materials, inexpensive manufacturing, and expanding markets for Thailand. Particularly under Thaksin, Thailand pursued enhanced relations with Singapore based on a common interest in liberalizing trade and with the Philippines centered on a mutual interest in combating terrorism, but those emphases have cooled since Thaksin’s departure. Former Thai Minister of Foreign Affairs Surin Pitsuwan currently serves as ASEAN Secretary General. Despite cooperative elements, Bangkok’s relations with its neighbors are often characterized by tension and diplomatic spats 3.2 Myanmar There is sporadic conflict with Thailand over the alignment of the border. The 2010 Burma Border clashes were a series of on going clash between the Myanmar Armed Forces and splinter brigades of the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA). The clashes erupted along the border with Thailand shortly after the general election on 7 November 2010.An estimated 10,000 refugees have fled into nearby neighbouring Thailand to escape the violent conflict. There is concern that due to discontent with the elections, and speculations of electoral fraud, that the conflict could escalate into a civil war. In November 2013 the Government and the Karen National Union agreed to talks aimed at negotiating a ceasefire and eventual lasting peace. 3.3 Laos Laos and Thailand share a common border and both states have an interest in making the Mekong River a "river of true peace and friendship"—as their respective prime ministers called for in 1976—also provides a north-south artery during the rainy season. 3.4 Cambodia Parts of Cambodia's border with Thailand are indefinite, and the maritime boundary with Thailand is not clearly defined. In 2008 there was a mutual withdrawal of ambassadors and it was the most severe diplomatic action to have occurred between the two countries. 3.5 Vietnam Diplomatic relations between the two countries have existed since 1976, and are very friendly both economically and politically nowadays. Yet , relations between the two countries had always been marred by discord, which resulted from bitter rivalry to gain control of the area of what is today Laos and Cambodia. During the Vietnam War, Thailand was aligned with South Vietnam and the United States . In 1979, when the Khmer Rouge government in neighbouring Cambodia was toppled, this had raised concerns in Thailand and the Thai government quickly allied itself with the Khmer Rouge, later the CGDK, in fear of Vietnamese expansionism. In fact, Thailand was foremost among the ASEAN, of which it is part of, in opposing the Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia. Cambodian refugees soon stayed at border camps straddling the Thai-Cambodian border, and these camps are often controlled by the Khmer Rouge or the CGDK. In the years that followed, Vietnam will launch a series of raids on the camps and Vietnamese troops often penetrate into Thai territory and shelled Thai border villages and towns. IV. Thailand and the United States of America 4.1 Relation threw the history Since World War II, the United States and Thailand have developed close relations, as reflected in several bilateral treaties and by both countries' participation in UN multilateral activities and agreements. The principal bilateral arrangement is the 1966 Treaty of Amity and Economic Relations, which facilitates U.S. and Thai companies' economic access to one another's markets. Other important agreements address civil uses of atomic energy, sales of agricultural commodities, investment guarantees, and military and economic assistance. In June 2004 the United States and Thailand initiated negotiations on a free trade agreement which, when concluded, will reduce and eliminate barriers to trade and investment between the two countries. These negotiations were placed on hold following the dissolution of the Thai Parliament in February 2006 and the subsequent coup in September. 4.2 Economic relations Economic assistance has been extended in various fields, including rural development, health, family planning, education, and science and technology. The formal U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) program ended in 1995. However, there are a number of targeted assistance programs which continue in areas of mutually defined importance, including: health and HIV/AIDS programming; refugee assistance; and trafficking in persons. The U.S. Peace Corps in Thailand has approximately 100 volunteers, focused on primary education, with an integrated program involving teacher training, health education, and environmental education The United States is Thailand's second largest trading partner after Japan; in 2006 merchandise imports from Thailand totalled $22.5 billion, and merchandise exports totalled $8.2 billion. The U.S., Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, and the European Union are among Thailand's largest foreign investors. American investment, concentrated in the petroleum and chemicals, finance, consumer products, and automobile production sectors, is estimated at $21 billion. 4.3 Current bilateral issues Thailand remains a trafficking route for narcotics from the Golden Triangle—the intersection of Burma, Laos, and Thailand—to both the domestic Thai and international markets. The large-scale production and shipment of opium and heroin shipments from Burma of previous years have largely been replaced by methamphetamine tablets. The United States and Thailand work closely together and with the United Nations on a broad range of programs to halt illicit drug trafficking and use and other criminal activity. The U.S. supports the International Law Enforcement Academy (ILEA) in Bangkok, which provides counter-narcotics and anti-crime capacity-building programs to law enforcement and judicial officials from a number of regional countries. Thailand has also been important to the US War on Terrorism, providing access to military facilities, sharing information on the movements of terrorist organizations and suspected terrorists, offering military engineering and medical personnel to support reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan Bangkok's support could prove pivotal for the United States in the years to come, as it presses war against militant Islamic groups in the region and prepares for the expansion of Chinese power. However, it is clear that Thailand fails to share the US's threat perception of China's rapid regional rise, trying to maintain strong relations with both the United States and China V. Strategies
5.1 Geopolitical imperatives Maintain stability in Bangkok — the home of 10 % of the population — and preserve central Thailand’s political dominance. Rein in and consolidate power over three outlying regions to gain strategic depth: the northern mountains, the northeastern Khorat Plateau and the southern Malay Peninsula. Prevent incursions from Myanmar to the west and Laos and Cambodia to the east by helping to keep them destabilized, fragmented and incapable of posing a threat. Reach out to foreign powers to benefit from them economically and technologically while not allowing them to undermine central Thai political power or social stability.

5.2 Strategies with historical evolution

Through most of the 20th century, Thailand, whether consciously or not, has pursued its geopolitical imperatives through a grand strategy of intervening militarily in internal affairs and of seeking foreign alliances that bring security and economic prosperity.
Frequent political change is a fact of Thailand’s modern life.
Since the 1932 coup broke the monarchy’s absolute authority, the country has cycled through a ceaseless repetition of government successions, with 19 military coups since 1932.`
The effect of military intervention has been to re-concentrate power in the army’s hands, thus preserving Bangkok’s dominance and preventing the provinces from gaining too uch power . One aspect of this strategy has been the military’s deliberate resurrection of the Thai monarchy, which serves as a means of creating social coherence among regions with divergent interests.
The second prong of Thailand’s grand strategy consists of forming military alliances and economic partnerships with foreign powers.
Bangkok allied with the Japanese against the British and the Americans in 1941, leading the Thai army to invade the Shan states in Burma and parts of French Cambodia in 1942. The Japanese used Thailand as a base of operations to combat the British in Burma and Malaysia, but Bangkok quickly turned against the Japanese and by 1943 appealed to the United States for support. At war’s end, the United States refused to support Britain’s demands for Thailand to pay reparations, bringing Bangkok into Washington’s orbit.
Thailand became a full member of the American alliance structure during the Cold War. Communism posed a fundamental geopolitical threat to Thailand by increasing the power of eastern neighbors Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam, all of which received Chinese or Soviet support. Moreover, the communists’ modus operandi was not in keeping with Bangkok’s strategy of limiting foreign influence to economics. Communist ideology sought total transformation of traditional Thai institutions like Buddhism and the monarchy, whereas American influence supported the king and did not threaten Thai Buddhism, while it brought many an economic boon. Aid and advice from the United States afforded Thailand access to Western credit and consumer markets and enabled it to develop its infrastructure and industries and become a booming capitalist economy.
The United States also strengthened the Thai military government, which contributed to the American side in the Korean War and sent 10,000 troops to fight alongside the United States in Vietnam while using U.S. intelligence and funds to fight a communist insurgency inside Thailand from the 1960s to the 1980s. Thailand provided military bases and rest and relaxation for the Americans during the Vietnam War, boosting the country’s industrial base and tourism (and giving rise to the sex industry for which Thailand is notorious).
But American influence waned after the U.S. withdrawal from Southeast Asia at the end of the Vietnam War, and with the withdrawal the communists appeared poised to seize the advantage. South Vietnam fell to the communists, the monarchy in Laos was overthrown and the Khmer Rouge emerged in Cambodia. Yet Thailand managed to defeat the communist insurgency that had been raging in the north and northeast by cutting a political deal with China, which had decided to open up its economy in 1978. The Sino-Vietnamese war cut off the Thai communists’ supply lines, and a new strategy on the part of the Thai military used political negotiations to discourage the communist insurgency, which finally wound down in the mid-1980s.
Thailand has also courted regional and international economic relationships to bring in foreign capital and boost its economic development. In the 1980s a surfeit of Japanese investment flooded into Thailand, pushing Bangkok to adopt the Japanese model of weak currency and export-based growth. Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong all began outsourcing the manufacturing of consumer- good components to Thailand, which liberalized capital controls to enable freer flows through its financial system. From 1985 to 1995, Thailand enjoyed an unprecedented period of prosperity, growing at double-digit rates and becoming the fifth of the so-called “Asian tiger” economies.
Since Thailand remains open to the outside world on an economic basis, it has been able to weather successive economic downturns without closing its doors. Thailand’s frenzied growth came to a grinding halt during the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis, which originated in Bangkok because of the wild investment of the preceding decade. Thailand’s external debt had become difficult to manage, export growth began to slow, a domestic real estate bubble burst, and the decision to take the Thai baht off its peg to the U.S. dollar led to a currency collapse. The Thai crash cascaded, triggering the collapse of other Asian economies and leading to a region-wide recession.
Thailand recovered relatively quickly from the crisis, no longer an economic miracle but still with a strong economy based on agricultural and manufacturing exports and tourism. Of course, the Asian financial crisis, along with the current global crisis, has exacerbated the ever-present divisions between power circles in favor of foreign influence and those that are against it. On the whole, however, the balance continues to be in favor of promoting free trade and regional and international economic links, and this balance will remain so long as foreign influences are not perceived as creating unbearable social divisions and do not undermine Bangkok’s traditional power.
The eventual death of King Bhumibol presents the greatest immediate challenge to Thailand’s internal political stability. Bhumibol is the longest-reigning king on earth and his sway over public opinion has increased throughout his rule. But succession will create controversy. When Bhumibol dies, new uncertainty about the power structure in Thailand — the relative roles of the monarchy, the military, the civilian bureaucracy and the provinces — will emerge for the first time since the 1940s. Yet the king’s passing will not change the country’s fundamental geopolitics. Whatever balance of power emerges in post-Bhumibol Thailand, the country will not stop trying to meet the imperatives that have determined its behavior since the early days of Siam.

VI. Conclusion Thanks to this case study about the geopolitics of Thailand , we know that this country has adopted a strategy which consists in keeping its friendship with the two currents superpowers : the US and China. However this situation cannot be viable for Thailand in the next decade. Indeed seeing the relation US-China , Thailand would have to chose between one of them. In my opinion Thailand should choose China . Indeed she is the growing economy of Asia and it would be a win- win situation if Thailand decides to strengthen its relation with her. In order to see this choice as an opportunity for Thailand let’s speak about a telling example : the Kra Isthmus Canal.
The Straits of Malacca and Singapore are two of the most important shipping ways in the world. They accommodate the economic needs and demands of world trade and this has impacted the well-being of the marine environment of these Straits. The Proposed Thai Canal Plan may function as a future alternative shipping route resulting in a paradigm leap to the shipping industry. With the construction cost up to USD23 billion measuring approximately 120kms from one side to the other through the Kra Isthmus, the proposed canal would be about 25m deep and 400m in width. The Government of Thailand will be funding this project with contributors from other maritime States such as Japan, China, the United States of America (US) and other interested States like Malaysia and Indonesia.
Currently, this proposed project has temporarily been put on hold due to economic, environment and political reasons. Nevertheless, the Thai government has never announced its intention to scrap the project. IF this canal is built Thailand would be the hub of ASEAN. Should the proposed Thai Canal Plan becomes a reality, shipping scenario in Southeast Asia would inevitably change. It would likely be the first shipping canal in Asia and may ultimately share the same success story as its other counterparts of Suez and Panama. Nevertheless, this proposed project may still be highly controversial particularly among maritime States, shipping companies and other stakeholders. As of now, the proposed Thai Canal projects remains clinging between a maritime myth and reality. Bibliography * http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/379257/thai-enterprises-need-to-refine-china-strategy * http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20131107000120&cid=1101 * http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/374305/thailand-signs-gms-power-project-accord-with-china * http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Thailand#Resources_and_land_use * http://www.phuket.com/island/resource.htm

* http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/61017/david-zweig-and-bi-jianhai/chinas-global-hunt-for-energy * http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China–Thailand_relations * http://www.seachula.com/b3.html * http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laos–Thailand_relations * http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32593.pdf * http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_relations_of_Thailand#Malaysia * http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thailand–United_States_relations#Security_cooperation * http://www.themalaymailonline.com/what-you-think/article/proposed-thai-canal-project-between-myth-and-reality-mohd-hazmi-mohd-rusli