The first reported case in the Ebola outbreak ravaging west Africa dates back to December 2013, in Guéckédou, a forested area of Guinea near the border with Liberia and Sierra Leone. Travelers took it across the border: by late March, Liberia had reported eight suspected cases and Sierra Leone six. By the end of June 759 people had been infected and 467 people had died from the disease, making this the worst ever Ebola outbreak. The numbers do not just keep climbing, they are accelerating. As of October 29th, 13,567 cases and 4,951 deaths had been reported worldwide, the vast majority of them in these same three countries. Many suspect these estimates are badly undercooked.
Ebola is not just a medical emergency, but an economic one. Sick people cannot work; fear of sickness keeps others from coming to work. Transportation and travel is disrupted. An impact assessment by the World Bank, released on October 8th, estimated the short-term impact of the outbreak on the economies of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone in terms of forgone GDP at $359m. Depending on whether the outbreak is contained quickly or slowly, the damage will continue into next year; under the Bank’s gloomier “High Ebola” scenario, the economic loss to Liberia in 2015 would be the equivalent of 12% of GDP.
Liberia has suffered most in the epidemic, which has killed more than 3,800 people and delivered an economic shock to some of Africa's most vulnerable economies. Ebola cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone could rise to between 550,000 and 1.4 million by January if there are no additional interventions, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report warned. Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea -- the three countries facing the biggest health crisis -- are also facing huge bills to try and contain the virus.
The three countries' economies had been growing. Sierra Leone, in particular, had been identified as a country with the potential for significant growth. Before the outbreak, the IMF had forecast the country to grow by over 14% in 2014. Liberia's economy had been growing by around 10% since 2005, while Guinea had been praised by the IMF for its economic and political reforms.
The Ebola crisis is having devastating consequences on Sierra Leone’s macro-economy, but it is also having far reaching knock-on effects at the micro-level, suppressing informal livelihood opportunities for poor people. This is particularly the case for those who are dependent on artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) – low-tech, labor-intensive mineral extraction and processing activities that generate disposable income for hundreds of thousands of families in an employment-constrained economy.
Ebola control must involve a process of rapid identification of cases, followed by removal and isolation of those infected for treatment. Public health education is also key, but a truly holistic approach to containing the disease, without cutting the lifelines that support the livelihoods of Sierra Leone’s rural inhabitants, must first start with a detailed understanding from all agencies involved, of the country’s rural landscapes and an appreciation of the micro-economic patterns and processes that are central to rural society.