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Ukraine/Russia Conflict

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Submitted By mbelza
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION ............................................................................ ... ... P.3

PURPOSE / PROBLEM ........................................... ...... ..s.4 2: 1 issue ............................................................. ...... ..s.4

METHOD ............................................................................... ...... ... P.5

THEORY ............................................................................ ...... .... P.6 4: 1 Liberalism. ........................................................................ .s.6 4: 2 realism ........................................................................... ..s.7

ANALYSIS / EARNINGS .................................................................. .... p.8 5: 1 Lens analysis ............................................................... .... p.8 5: 2 Analysis based on Liberalism .......................................... ... ... ..s.9 5: 3 Analysis based Realism .......................................... .. ......... p.10

DISCUSSION .............................................................................. .s.11-12

SOURCE CITATION ................................................................... ... .s.13

INTRODUCTION
"Withstand the Russian economy Ukraine crisis?" Http://www.exporttjanster.se/content/t%C3%A5l-den-ryska-ekonomin-ukrainakrisen (Henrik Hjelm, March 2014. Retrieved: 2014-9-24)

That there is a conflict between Ukraine and Russia, no one has escaped hearing about. We have therefore decided to write a report on this particular dispute, as we believe that the topic is extremely important and topical. The issue affects not only Russia and Ukraine, but also we in Sweden and all over the world are affected and must take a position on the conflict. Our goal with this report is to inform and provide knowledge on the topic that you as readers will gain a greater understanding of it, and be able to decide what happens.

In this particular report, we have chosen to focus on how the crisis is affecting Russia's economy. We will write about how their actions affect the current economy of the country and also write about the consequences that may arise and affect their future economy in terms of trade, standard of living and the oil.

By reading our report you will just get a better idea of how Russia's economy is affected and what consequences their actions may have in the future. We have created a report that will give you the reader different perspectives on the issue so that you will eventually be able to take a position on the conflict itself. We have done this by answering a formulated question from different perspectives.

The report focuses as mentioned before on three points when it comes to the economy.
It is:
How to trade with other countries affected;
How the Russian people's living standards changed,
How Russia to manage its oil and natural gas assets.
AIMS / PROBLEM
The purpose of this report is that with the help of two ideologies clarify how Ukraine crisis has affected Russia's economy in the current situation and how it could affect Russia's future economy. We want as previously mentioned thus provide different perspectives on the issue of creating a large width, and with this report, you can then move on to how it happens in Russia could affect the rest of the world in particular, the issue of oil and natural gas .

2: Question 1
Our research question is:
"How has Ukraine crisis affected the Russian economy now, and what consequences may affect their future finances when it comes to:"
Overseas trade
Living Standard
Oil and natural gas

We have placed the greatest emphasis on what is happening right now that there are facts about it, while we can only speculate and reflect on the other people say or write may happen in the future.

METHOD
Our report is based on the latest news, and we have especially chosen to use out of Internet sites as sources when all the time more and more new information about the crisis, which is also constantly updated. We have wanted to keep us as updated as possible to give you the reader a text which kept up with the development in order to provide you with the latest and most current information.

The fact that we used out internet pages printed recently, we can not be absolutely sure that all information is correct fully. We have compared the texts with each other and other sources to determine what is true. It raised several times in different texts is what we have chosen to use our report as we believe it is information we can trust.

So we have had to think about when it comes to being the source critical is that we always have had to compare the texts to see if the information is correct and also whether the writer was biased or impartial in the matter. Information may be true, but rotated in different ways. We have selected sites that we believe to be serious when we heard about them and read other articles there before. Most also have new updated articles about the other things that show that the sides are active.

There we had could have done differently was to use us out of newspapers and magazines too. The reason why we did not do that is because we did not have access to some newspapers or magazines with the right information to our report and issue. We were also able to follow up with more news on TV, but we felt we got the same information through the internet pages.

THEORY
We have chosen to look at our issue from two different theories, Liberalism and Realism. The reason we have chosen these theories is that they have very different opinions on issues, and we believe in that we can provide different perspectives and information on the conflict.
In this section we will describe both theories and their thoughts.

4: 1 Liberalism
Liberalism is a very open and great theory. Its largest and most important point is that one believes that power is at the individual or actor. It has a very optimistic view of humanity and believes that man is good. Liberalism wants to create a harmony of interests and considers that free trade and cooperation is something that affects all positive. There are many key players in this theory. Companies, individuals, governments and organizations are some of them. By creating a common interest between the actors, believes that they can help each other and benefit from each other to the development, improvement and go with any kind of profit. Liberalism's basic idea is that all people want to cooperate if the possibility is given. They believe that if more people became involved, decide on political events home would make that country also would reverse its policy outward and begin to cooperate with states and organizations. The United Nations is a testament to the interest of harmony liberalism talking about. Where several states have joined forces with the main goal to create peace between each other and cooperate with the trade and others. States can benefit from each other. The international arena is affected out of anarchy and order can be created by just cooperation between states.

The negative points that should be mentioned about liberalism is that it is very naive. It has sometimes overly high belief in individuals and actors. All is not good. The war has shown us, and it has also shown us that there always exists a harmony of interests in the world. http://www.sakerhetspolitik.se/Sakerhetspolitik/Internationell-sakerhet/Det-internationella-systemet/ (2013-06-18, Subhead, Liberalism. Retrieved: 2014-10-14)
(Perspectives on Liberalism, What is international relations - Martin Edman)
4: 2 realism
Realism is a specialization in international relations and it has a central focus on the state considered was the only player to have a real significance in international politics. It is the state that is the player that has the power and resources to create and destroy international cooperation, and to also affect other states. Realist theory think that there should be anarchy among countries and international politics should be about survival. It is the strongest states with enough power that can determine the development of the country. This is precisely why states cooperate because of their own interests and that they will increase their chances of obtaining decide. If the two states would begin to fight each other as would the state with the most power contrary to the weaker state interests. It is this that makes all states equally renovates say milli chipped away in order to defend themselves against the uncertain and anarchic world where all states are looking for more power, and to increase their security. One example is the arms race during the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. Small states have a harder time maintaining a military defense than larger states and precisely because looking small states to larger states to form a military alliance. This happened during the Cold War when it was formed two combatants. One was NATO members from North America and Western Europe, and the second was the Warsaw Pact with members from Asia and Eastern Europe.

The downside of realism is that the actors are controlled out of the international system of checks and balances, and it allows the actors can not act freely. Would distribution of power being bipolar as traders would find themselves together for two blocks to create a balance of power. This would mean that players would not be able to operate freely because they are controlled as much out makfördelningen. Which means that the players can not change the trend that has been predetermined out the distribution of power, allowing aktörena would be controlled by the structure. http://www.sakerhetspolitik.se/Sakerhetspolitik/Internationell-sakerhet/Det-internationella-systemet/ (2013-06-18, Subhead, Realism. Retrieved: 2014-10-14)
(Perspectives on Realism, What is international relations - Martin Edman)
ANALYSIS / RESULTS
In this part of the report we will reply to our question in three different ways. We will answer the question in an objective way to provide pure information and then we will also answer the question based on our two selected theories, liberalism and realism.

5: 1 Lens analysis
The big problem with Ukraine crisis in the Russian economy is that it will be hit out of the whole society's reactions. It is marked on the Russian stock market and the ruble exchange rate, to any threatening behavior is costing them. The economy is affected for every challenge and every time they require some percentage of foreign exchange reserves to ruble will not fall to unmanageable levels. If it continues so will ultimately not be able to regulate the currency, and it can be done the same thing happened with the German economy after World War II. The question that people ask is how high a price the Russian population are prepared to pay in the form of a reduced standard of living to maintain and secure the national pride. All Russians neither supports State action, but sees other needs such as freedom of opinion and modernization of society as more important. http://www.exporttjanster.se/content/t%C3%A5l-den-ryska-ekonomin-ukrainakrisen (Henrik Hjelm, March 2014. Retrieved: 2014-9-24)
The outside world is making against Russia is to create sanctions. With these wants to get Russia to withdraw its troops and close down threats. The sanctions include European companies may lend money to the state-owned Russian banks and you may not borrow to finance Russia's three major energy and defense companies, Transneft, Rosneft and Gazprom Neft. It has also frozen private accounts and large second bourgeois activities of Russian citizens. All this affects the Russian people. http://www.svd.se/naringsliv/nyheter/varlden/fragor-och-svar-om-sanktionerna-mot-ryssland_3910332.svd (Björn Lindahl, 2014-09-17. Retrieved: 2014-10-20)
Trade blockades against Russia lowers the Russian standard of living, but the US and the EU do not want to block it them entirely because of their huge energy resources as oil and natural gas.
This is advantageous for Russia when the other wants to avoid a possible oil crisis.
5: 2 Analysis based on Liberalism
When we look at the issue based on the liberal perspective, we see clearly that Russia's actions are not based on those thoughts. Their actions seen from a liberalized drastically perspective will affect their economy negatively. This theory talks about cooperation between states and organizations to grow and develop. You want to import, extract, and export to other countries. This is made difficult both now with the sanctions set up against them, and it can even affect their future trade. Businesses and others can be unsafe if you want to trade with them, then you do not know how the state acts. It can be difficult for Russian companies to seek funding from outside and you have to completely rely on its own market. Those affected most by this are the people. They no longer have the same choices as regards the goods and other things. They thus become more controlled by the state and their living standards lowered. Liberalism speaks of the power to sit in the individual and the individual players, but that is no certainty. The state will be able to control more and more, and largely determine exactly what people buy and do not, and at what prices when they no longer have competition from foreign imports. The currency is also affected out of all this. It falls to each threatening actions of Russia do, but do not manage to fall indefinitely. An inflation can be created and the money förlorarar its value. What Russia, however, its defense is its huge assets in the form of natural gas and oil. One of the reasons that the EU and the US not wanted to act more are due to them. It has been realized that one needs their assets to support themselves. If Russia break its current behavior and begin to think more liberalized drastically can with the help of its resources trying to get the other to build a new confidence in a, by selling cheap or give them a certain amount of oil and natural gas. It opens doors and can again trade freely with the actors on the international market. However, what could happen if they continue as they do and maybe completely stops exporting oil and natural gas to Europe or the United States going to attack then this is something you must have. In short, Russia's economy adversely affected the basis of the liberal perspective as foreign trade deteriorates and individuals have less power and choices.
(Perspectives on liberalism, Martin Edman. Report Part 4: 1, p.6)
5: 3 Analysis on the basis of Realism
Today Russia has a realism point of view of looking at the conflict between the Ukraine. When Russia only want a government that rules the roost, and that they themselves want to develop their own country. You then put then a higher budget on the military than to the people, when they want to protect the state at any cost. Based on a Russian realist perspective, then you want to keep all that is one's own country and prevent handlen with other countries and only live and keep what they have in their country. The Russian Federation might do is that they do not export their oil and natural gas to the United States and Europe, for it not to be an oil crisis in the future of Russia. For you know that you could not import oil from other countries when they do not have cooperation with them and that most countries have created sanctions against Russia over the conflict with Ukraine. With these sanctions will stop all trade between Russia and the countries which have set up sanctions against Russia. These trade blockades do when almost all trading is stopped with foreign countries and Russia, it is very difficult to import and to export to other countries. This in turn affects the civilian people of Russia as they have to lower their standard of living because Russia can not import goods and materials from other countries. But the Russian realists are willing to lower their living standard to just keep what is one's own and to strengthen their national pride. This means that Putin will lose the support of all Russian liberal lard when they want Russia to start cooperating with other countries to get a better imports, so that living standards can be raised in the country. But the EU and the US do not want to completely block trade with Russia, when Russia has just huge resources out of oil and natural gas that other countries in the world need. This is a big advantage to the realism Kingdom Russia when they themselves then can decide if they want to export the oil and natural gas to other countries, or if they want to keep it for themselves as a little revenge for that many have set up sanctions against them. But if Russia had decided that they would lose a very large income that they probably can not afford. In summary then, the economy will be positively affected on the basis of realism, then the state greater control and you can control its own market.
(Perspectives on realism, Martin Edman. Report Part 4: 2 p.7)
DISCUSSION
After answering our question in three different ways, we intend to summarize the three different responses by analyzing, interpreting and evaluating them. In the beginning, we clearly see that Russia's actions have been built on realism thoughts. They want a strong state control autocratically without getting help from others. To build a strong defense and wants to prove to big by usurping another's territory, which they mainly made in Ukraine. The downside of this for Russia, then, that many countries have set themselves against them, among other things, set up the sanctions that have blocked parts of the trade. The Russian people's standard of living has been reduced and people are divided in opinion about doing right or not. Realists supports government action when we wrote earlier wants a strong state and maintain their national pride, while liberal revisionists would be preferable that you collaborated with others such as negotiated with Ukraine instead of going into the military and threaten them. The positive things from the perspective of realist thinking is that it has strengthened its national pride and got out to big for the world again. We get the feeling that Russia wants to regain power, like the man who had the Soviet Union. This crush liberalism thoughts as we said earlier, based on cooperation between states and not to stand completely alone.

As we read in our response, we clearly see that much will be affected, but that syne way affect whether it is positive or negative. The trade will more difficult for Russia. You will not be able to import and export in the same way as you did before. This is negative if you look it from the liberal perspective, but on the assumption of realism is more positive when you consider that you can get by solely on his own market. Cooperation and trade with other states and actors are unnecessary. The sanctions that have been set stops most trade now, and it can become impediments in the future as companies and states can not be absolutely certain how the Russian state acts.

The biggest issue that we have been thinking about is how the Russian people attitude to the conflict as seen from the economic perspective as we have assumed in our issue.
Are you willing to lower the standard of living and abandon foreign goods to maintain the national pride. Or they want to cooperate with others and developing society. If the state continues as it does the people will become more and more controlled out of it. The state will be able to control all his own market and as we previously posted, there will not be any competition from foreign goods. Then you can both decide what people should buy and what it will cost, all by themselves. This is self-evident to any liberal revisionists do not want to happen. People believe that the power is in the individual and the operator. One should not be controlled, but free to make their own choices and to create collaborations to develop as we mentioned earlier.

The Russia's lifeline is its huge resources of oil and natural gas. We think it may be Russia's way out of the conflict, by providing the other countries lower prices as a sign that it wants to start negotiations with the others again. You might not like it much, but when the currency falls it has to end no choice but to build trade relations and cooperation with others. What we fear is that Russia stops its exports of natural gas and oil completely. They want to continue to prove to big and you do not need anyone else. This could lead to a third world war when their assets are important for the rest of the world.

A short summary of what has been, and can happen, is that the trade will be more difficult for Russia. Their actions will make companies and governments reluctant, then you can not trust them fully. The Russian people's living standards are affected and we'll see how it will look in the future depending on how Russia chooses to continue acting. The biggest issue affecting the most is how Russia will do with its oil and natural gas. Will continue to export, or will you finally say no to exports of it and possibly start a third world war.

SOURCE CITATION

Internet sites: http://www.exporttjanster.se/content/t%C3%A5l-den-ryska-ekonomin-ukrainakrisen (Henrik Hjelm, March 2014. Retrieved: 2014-9-24) http://www.sakerhetspolitik.se/Sakerhetspolitik/Internationell-sakerhet/Det-internationella-systemet/ (2013-06-18, Subhead, Liberalism. Retrieved: 2014-10-14) http://www.sakerhetspolitik.se/Sakerhetspolitik/Internationell-sakerhet/Det-internationella-systemet/ (2013-06-18, Subhead, Realism. Retrieved: 2014-10-14) http://www.svd.se/naringsliv/nyheter/varlden/fragor-och-svar-om-sanktionerna-mot-ryssland_3910332.svd (Björn Lindahl, 2014-09-17. Retrieved: 2014-10-20)

Sources used as a basis for ensuring referenced sources: http://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krimkrisen http://borsforum.svd.se/topic/1155-hur-h%C3%A5rt-sl%C3%A5r-ukraina-krisen/

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