FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY MINNA, NIGER STATE

SCHOOL OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP & MANAGEMENT
TECHNOLOGY

DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORT MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGY

TOPIC:
URBANIZATION IN AFRICA

BY:
SOLOMON T. JOHNSON
2012/1/41096MT
COURSE: URBAN PLANNING

SUBMITTED TO:
DR. DUKIYA

ABSTRACT
Africa is urbanizing fast. Its rate of urbanization soared from 15 percent in 1960 to 40 percent in 2010, and is projected to reach 60 percent in 2050 (UN Habitat 2010). Urban populations in Africa are expected to triple in the next 50 years, changing the profile of the region, and challenging policy makers to harness urbanization for sustainable and inclusive growth. Although many have written about the phenomena, what is clear to us is that is impossible to deal with Africa’s growth and poverty challenges without managing urbanization. Urbanization is not a subȬ plot, but rather the main policy narrative for Africa.

URBANIZATION IN AFRICA
Challenges and Opportunities:
Africa is urbanizing fast. Its rate of urbanization soared from 15 percent in 1960 to 40 percent in 2010, and is projected to reach 60 percent in 2050 (UN Habitat 2010). Urban populations in Africa are expected to triple in the next 50 years, changing the profile of the region, and challenging policy makers to harness urbanization for sustainable and inclusive growth. Although many have written about the phenomena, what is clear to us is that is impossible to deal with Africa’s growth and poverty challenges without managing urbanization. Urbanization is not a subȬ plot, but rather the main policy narrative for Africa.
Along the broad spectrum of development patterns, Africa urbanization presents some peculiarities. While the heterogeneity of the region precludes easy generalizations, one can take note of some singular characteristics. Although Africa and Asia have similar urban rates (around 40 percent), per capita GDP in Africa was one third that of Asian countries in 2012. In addition, Africa’s literacy rates and institutional development indices are much lower than Asian counterparts, and Africa’s infrastructure lags behind.
Recent population censuses are providing more accurate data than has been available in the past. Among other issues, this new information will shed light on such questions as (a) the size and source of urban growth across African countries (Potts 2012; Gollin et al. 2013); (b) the role of rural migration versus natural growth in urban expansion (Fox 2012); and (c) the usefulness of growth models in explaining the longȬ term pattern of urbanization. The typical models of structural transformation explain urban expansion through the movement of labor from rural to urban areas that follow the transformation from agriculture to industry and services. Urbanization would be a result of either a “push” from agricultural productivity growth or a “pull” from industrial productivity growth leading to “production cities,” with a mix of workers in tradable and non tradable sectors.
Understanding African urbanization is highly relevant in other domains as well. Extreme poverty continues to be more prominent in rural than in urban areas (at least three times higher). Therefore, urbanization would seem to be a superior way to provide better services and livelihoods to millions, as well illustrated in the case of China (Taylor 2008). One may expect that over time, the gap between urban and rural earnings will decline and eventually disappear, as surplus labor shrinks and the rural sector modernizes. But it be quite a while until this occurs.2 As part of the process, one might stress the importance of governments providing basic services to smaller cities and intermediate towns that can facilitate the transition between rural and nonȬrural activities (Ferre et al. 2010), the mobility of labor, and the generation of economic activity. As in most developing countries, urbanizing Africa will face serious challenges, especially as policy structures adjust slowly (Henderson 2005). At the national level, integration of capital markets often occurs more slowly than labor market integration, which is facilitated by migration. Investment in infrastructure is woefully inadequate, institutional development lags, and the fiscal base is weakened by centralized processes. Urban management and planning needs to be strengthened to help cities plan ahead and avoid congestion, pollution, and the emergence of urban slums; but the track record of most African countries in this arena is poor so far. For this reason, the issue of urban management is at the core of the continent’s development challenge.

Heterogeneity
SubȬSaharan Africa is a collection of widely heterogeneous countries and cities with considerable differentiation in their patterns of urbanization. For example, there are 13 countries with urbanization levels above 50 percent, mostly oilȬproducing countries and middleȬincome countries. Seven countries have levels below 20 percent; these include the lowest income countries such as Burundi, Ethiopia, Niger, and Uganda. With the exception of Nigeria, all countries with urbanization rates above 50 percent have per capita incomes (in 2000 U.S. dollars) above US$1,300. African urbanization has happened quickly, but with little change in the economic structure of most of its countries.
Urban popwulations in Africa are concentrated in small towns, reflecting early stages of development. Based on the most recent population estimates, there are more than 20 African countries where more than 70 percent of the urban population lives in cities of less than 500,000 people (Simkins 2013). This is similar to China’s experience in the 1990s, when its cities were (relatively) undersized due to migration restrrestrictions, substantially impairing their efficiency (Au and Henderson 2006). Migration restrictions limited labor mobility and agglomeration, and at that time China had a much larger share of its urban population in smaller cities (between 100,000 and 1 million) than other emerging economies. The relaxation of migration restrictions has since redrawn China’s demographic map, prompting a huge redistribution of people across cities of different sizes. As large cities play a critical role in productivity levels and business climate (Puga and Venables 1996; Henderson and Venables 2010), it is clear that Africa is missing a large opportunity. Most cities in Africa have populations too small to properly exploit the scale benefits of clustering local economic activity, thereby limiting urban productivity gains and economic growth. Relative to the rest of the world, African countries distinctly lack cities in the range of 1–5 million in population. As Henderson (2009: 5) notes: “While Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou, for example, have evolved into megacities, recent research suggests that many prefectureȬlevel cities are about half their efficient size. The research indicates that a doubling of the population in such cities would lead to a 20 to 35 percent increase in output per worker.” Divisions between countries in Africa have of course played a role in this pattern of urbanization. If Africa’s 50 countries were 50 states in one country like the United States, then the largest cities would be large enough to sustain greater diversification and incubation of new firms (Venables 2010). There is also evidence to suggest that city primacy in SubȬSaharan Africa is lower than optimal for many countries. Henderson (2004) argues that optimal primacy is inversely related to land area, population, and income per capita. Deviations from optimal primacy entail costs in terms of productivity growth. Based on estimates in Henderson (2003) and data for 2010, the following countries have less than 80 percent levels of optimal primacy: Benin, Chad, Ethiopia, Ghana, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Morocco, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, and South Africa. Political fragmentation further impinges on city size and can hurt productivity. Collier and Venables (2007) and Venables (2010) show that country area and population are highly significantictions, substantially impairing their efficiency (Au and Henderson 2006). Migration restrictions limited labor mobility and agglomeration, and at that time China had a much larger share of its urban population in smaller cities (between 100,000 and 1 million) than other emerging economies. The relaxation of migration restrictions has since redrawn China’s demographic map, prompting a huge redistribution of people across cities of different sizes. As large cities play a critical role in productivity levels and business climate (Puga and Venables 1996; Henderson and Venables 2010), it is clear that Africa is missing a large opportunity.Most cities in Africa have populations too small to properly exploit the scale benefits of clustering local economic activity, thereby limiting urban productivity gains and economic growth. Relative to the rest of the world, African countries distinctly lack cities in the range of 1–5 million in population. As Henderson (2009: 5) notes: “While Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou, for example, have evolved into megacities, recent research suggests that many prefectureȬlevel cities are about half their efficient size. The research indicates that a doubling of the population in such cities would lead to a 20Ȭ35 percent increase in output per worker.” Divisions between countries in Africa have of course played a role in this pattern of urbanization. If Africa’s 50 countries were 50 states in one country like the United States, then the largest cities would be large enough to sustain greater diversification and incubation of new firms (Venables 2010).

Density without Congestion: Are There Solutions That Are Feasible and Affordable?
Rapid urbanization is projected to continue in Africa, and many primate cities may double or triple in the next two decades. Predicting the future size of African cities is risky since the spatial transformations that accompany development or respond to economic shocks cannot easily be foreseen (Henderson 2005). Moreover, it is difficult to separate urbanization policies from broader economic policies, economic planning, and the role of the state. Trade, investment, and specialization result in spatial transformations; these will be smoother if land markets function well, if local infrastructure is able to boost competitive advantage, and if cities offer the amenities and services required by the growing workforce. Good urban policies are required to maintain wellȬ functioning cities (Freire 2013). Some experts have identified land policies and tax policies as critical elements, while others have stressed governance more generally. One key variable that distinguishes successful from unsuccessful cities is the quality of infrastructure.
Densification. Densification is an important element of efficient urbanization in Africa. The average population density on the continent (77 people per square kilometer) is still among the lowest in the world. The agglomeration index in the World Development Report 2009 gives Africa a score of 30 percent, compared with about 50 percent for the rest of the world (World Bank 2009). As a whole, urban density in the African continent is quite flat, although the average city density is about the same level as observed in East Asia and Latin America. However, rapid expansion of periȬurban cities without planning and without infrastructure will result in patchy development. This will increase the costs of providing basic services and will hurt connectivity and mobility of labor. Density matters because the concentration of people and firms in towns and cities generate scale and agglomeration economies, because the costs of providing basic services decline rapidly with density, and because density can be greener. The average greenhouse gas (GHG) emission of a dense city is exponentially lower than a sprawled one (Hoornweg 2011). The challenge in Africa will be to get the “right” density that harnesses market forces to encourage concentration and promote convergence in living standards between villages, towns, and cities. For instance, the economic density in New Delhi is more than 60 times higher than Accra; obviously one is overȬsized and the other underȬsized. Planners will have to deal with New Delhi’s problems as a retrofit, whereas Accra’s planners have the chance to anticipate and plan (World Bank 2013c).
Expansion of basic services. The provision of infrastructure and public services should be cheaper and more efficient in denser areas, and indeed this is the case. However, the sheer size of new populations typically constitutes a substantial burden for already stretched municipal budgets. The result is that in some cases service coverage has been declining, notably with regards to water supply. Adequate investments—whether public or private—in infrastructure and services will be crucial to reap the benefits of density. Furthermore, inadequate provision of basic services does not deter the migration of people to cities; they will come just for the chance of getting these services.
Infrastructure. African countries lag behind their peers in developing countries in infrastructure provision (World Bank 2010). The differences are particularly large for paved roads, power generation, and access to potable water and sanitation. Access to electricity reaches only 16 percent of African citizens, compared with 41 percent in other developing countries. Average power consumption is 124 kilowatts per capita, or 10 percent of that in the rest of the developing world (World Bank 2010). African firms report losing 5 percent of their sales because of frequent power outages; this figure jumps to 20 percent for informal firms. While private firms are eager to explore the potential of African rapid growing markets, the lack of infrastructure and red tape constitute major obstacles to private investment.
Strengthening connectivity. Cities within a country are not isolated entities and their success is closely linked to their connectivity with domestic and international markets. Cities in Africa have relatively poor connectivity with domestic and international markets. Urbanization has been associated with motorization, but investment in roads and improved traffic management has lagged, leading to high levels of congestion. While much is made of Africa’s distance from world markets, the primary problem is domestic—long distances within countries. Africa has one of the lowest road densities in the world, second only to Latin America (figure 7). But unlike Latin America, Africa has a third of its population in landlocked countries and even more far from access to regional if not global markets. Low interȬregional transport costs are also critical to fostering industrial competitiveness, particularly in the context of retaining trade and manufacturing competitiveness (World Bank 2009). Africa scores poorly on logistics indices.
High transport costs add to the high fragmentation of the continent. Transportation costs from West Africa to the United States are twice those of other regions. It takes more than 40 days for goods to pass the border in Africa, twice the period in Latin America.
Observations for the Future: As Africa Urbanizes
In order to make sense of urbanization in Africa, it is useful to first recognize that Africa’s population remains predominantly rural. About 66 percent of the inhabitants live in rural areas with significant variation across countries (table 1). In Africa’s middleȬincome countries, half of the inhabitants still live in rural areas, whereas in the landlocked, lowȬ income countries they account for about 70 percent (World Bank 2010). The vast majority of the population lives in the rural hinterlands within six hours travel time of cities having at least 50,000 inhabitants. One third of Africa’s urban population is concentrated in the region’s 36 megacities with more than 1 million inhabitants. However, much of the remaining population is spread across 232 intermediate cities of between 100,000 and 1 million inhabitants and in periȬurban areas. So while much of Africa can be officially classified as urbanized, these settlements are urban with significant caveats. Most lack basic infrastructure and amenities and most are therefore unable to capture the usual economic benefits of cities.
Within this reality, African urbanization faces four broad challenges:
1. rapid growth of populations with low levels of economic activity based on inadequate physical and human capital
2. low density, sprawl, and informality in periȬurban fringes that exacerbate poverty in the continent
3. weak coverage of basic infrastructure services, notably water, energy, and sanitation, which makes it difficult to improve welfare in either urban or rural environments
4. weaknesses in administration, institutions, and overall planning capacity
These are the challenges of development, regardless of where people reside or what their type of settlement. For this reason, we would argue against separating the urbanization agenda from the overall development agenda. One critical dimension of a response to the four challenges is economic planning, an indispensable tool for the generation of economic growth and jobs, as well as the delivery of services to the poor. This includes sound development planning and urban land use planning. Another dimension is infrastructure—with electricity and transport being the highest priority—to alleviate urbanization pressures and bottlenecks to development.
The Fast Growing City: The Case for Early Action Countries at a low level of urbanization but with rapid population growth face the most complicated challenge but also the greatest policy opportunity. Burkina Faso, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Malawi, Niger, Tanzania, and Uganda are in this category. The urban population is growing above 4 percent a year, while more than 75 percent of the population is still living in rural areas. Incomes are low and infrastructure is lagging. Public policy will probably favor investment in productive infrastructure to accommodate the needs of economic activity and new firms, leaving new migrants to fend for themselves in the urban periphery. The capital cities—including Kinshasa, Luanda, Maputo, and Kampala—have been growing fast at 4– 5 percent a year and will continue to grow fast in the near future. This will absorb much of the migration from the rural areas and the demographic growth of the urban areas themselves. These cities could use the opportunity of rapid growth to make efficient decisions in terms of both investment and city form. The most important policy tool would be forwardȬlooking urban participatory planning, which could guide urban expansion and the associated infrastructure needs. Urban dynamics are seldom correctly foreseen, and in most cases the political economy has the last word in determining the location of infrastructure. To be efficient, planning should be flexible, participatory, and indicative (with a vision for the next 10–15 years). Urban reference maps should plan major roads and city services, the areas for urban expansion, and the reserves for amenities. Planning should aim to reduce sprawl, enhance densification, and prevent development in environmentally precarious zones. Without realistic fiscal projections for resource availability, urban plans often fail. Dakar, Lagos, and Maputo recently prepared city development strategies, as frameworks to encourage participation from the community in discussing challenges and opportunities. The second policy priority would be the efficient use of land and institutions to strengthen property rights, record market transactions, and steadily move toward more efficient land markets. Poverty and inclusion issues can best be addressed by recognizing the role of informal settlements in providing shelter for millions of poor people, and ensuring the delivery of basic services, including education and health, regardless of location. This development of human capital is essential for bridging the inequality gap in next generations, but also in upgrading the skills of the workforce. Finance will need to come from the central government, but landȬbased taxes (including property taxes) and user charges can be effectively used. International assistance could be important in identifying the factors that would make possible earlyȬ on green strategies for urbanizing Africa.
The Large Cities: Capitalizing on Economic Activity Dar es Salaam, Nairobi, and Addis Ababa are large, fastȬgrowing cities with the potential to capture agglomeration economies. National universities are producing planners and engineers who are able to contribute to the urban sustainability debate. Their countries are reaching the 50 percent urbanization rate and have governance structures in place. The challenge is to ensure continuing urban growth, while improving density in the center and connectivity to the periphery. This grouping includes the oil Ȭexporting countries and the middleȬ income countries, such as Botswana, Cape Verde, and Senegal. MiddleȬ income countries of Northern Africa have introduced effective policies to absorb informal settlements and provide shelter to the population.5 For large cities in SubȬSaharan Africa, the challenge will be to include the emerging development in the periphery and consolidate or reform the older structures in city centers. On land management, there may be benefit in relaxing regulations so that cities can grow in height and capture the benefits of density. If governance issues can be effectively handled, greater cooperation with the private sector can yield economic gains, especially in connective infrastructure

REFERENCES
Acemoglu, Daron, and James Robinson. 2010. “Why is Africa Poor? “Economic History of Developing Regions 25(1): 21–50.

AFRICAPOLIS 2008, “Urbanization Trends 1950–2020: A GeoȬstatistical Approach, West Africa, Fact Sheets by Country.” AFD (Africa department), coordinated by SEDET
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Au, ChunȬCung, and J. Vernon Henderson. 2006. “How Migration Restrictions Limit Agglomeration and Productivity in China.” Journal of Development Economics 80(2): 350–88.

Arnott, R. 2009. “Housing Policy in Developing Countries: The Importance of the Informal Economy.” In Urbanization and Growth, Spence et al., eds. Washington, DC: Commission for Growth and Development.

Boden, T. A., R. J. Andres, and G. Marland. 2013. “Global, Regional, and National FossilȬFuel CO2 Emissions. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. Available at: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/overview_2010.html.

Christiansen, Luc, Joachim De Weerdt, and Yasuyuki Todo. 2013. “Urbanization and Poverty Reduction—The Role of Rural Diversification and Secondary Towns”. Policy Research Working Paper 6422. World Bank, Washington, DC.