“Why is the 2011 GE considered to be a watershed election?”

ForDr. Lee Lai To
Nanyang Technological University | |
By
Ng Wei Qiang
U1010722H

Word Count: 2805 words
(Excluding Cover Page)

March 3, 2012

To understand why GE 2011 was considered by many to be a watershed election, we must first take a look at the historical context of Singapore’s political scene which has been dominated by the People’s Action Party (PAP) since its independence in 1966. In fact, from 1966 up to 1981, there was not a single opposition Member of Parliament (MP). Among other reasons, one compelling fact was the boycott of the Barisan Socialis in the 1968 elections, allowing the PAP to sweep the polls, capturing all 58 seats and garnering 84.4% of all votes. Since then, the PAP has not looked back, dominating all Parliamentary General Elections while the opposition has failed to make any significant inroads in the political scene.
However, it should be noted that over the years, the PAP has had a few upsets along the way with J. B. Jeyaratnam breaking the PAP’s monopoly of the Parliamentary seats with an unexpected victory in the 1981 Anson by-election. The next 3 elections in 1984, 1988 and 1991 then saw a downward swing in PAP’s popular vote, culminating in the PAP garnering only 61.0% of votes and losing 4 seats in 1991. This was significant in the fact that firstly, it was the lowest percentage of votes garnered by the PAP and secondly, it was the most seats lost to the opposition post independence. These trends at that time seemed to suggest that Singaporeans was ready to embrace the opposition after years of effectively living in a “One Party State”. However, that notion was overwritten almost immediately as the PAP came back strongly and reversed the decline, gaining back more than 65% of the votes in the next three elections, even getting 75.3% in 2001, its highest total since the 1968 elections.
This paper will seek to examine the factors that has characterised the 2011 General Elections as a watershed election and take an in-depth look at the significance and future implications of those factors and how it would shape Singapore’s political arena in the coming years.
The most telling and significant factor is the results of the election itself where many events of significance unfolded. With the highest proportion of contested seats since independence, the PAP won 81 out of 87 seats and returned to power as expected, but only garnered a record low 60.14% of the votes, a 6.46% downswing from the last elections.
Firstly, it was the first election in which a Group Representation Constituency (GRC) was won by an opposition team since its incorporation in 1988. The GRC system has long been regarded as a PAP “fortress” as it represented a high barrier of entry to the opposition who had far lesser resources and the necessary manpower to effectively challenge. Hence, great interest was sparked when the 2 incumbent opposition MPs, namely, Mr Low Thia Khiang and My Chaim See Tong chose to forgo their historical Single Man Constituency (SMC) strongholds in Hougang and Potong Pasir respectively and contest in the GRCs, taking a risk that there would be no elected opposition MPs. A notable event was the firing of a warning by Lee Kuan Yew to residents of Aljunied where he warned that they have “five years to live and repent” should the WP emerge victorious, exemplified the hardball politics strategy employed by the PAP in ensuring their re-election.
The Worker’s Party (WP) put together what was dubbed its “Dream Team” to contest in Aljunied GRC and for the first time in Singapore’s short electoral history, the opposition seemed to have put together a team capable of circumventing the high barriers imposed by the unique GRC system and generated huge interest as Aljunied GRC shaped out to be the hottest battleground in the GE. The landmark political victory for the WP saw political casualties for the PAP, with the defeat of its foreign minister, George Yeo as well as its first female cabinet minister, Lim Hwee Hua.
The victory achieved against an effective team led by a well respected minister in George Yeo represented a paradigm shift in the voting mentality of the voters. Voters were willing to take a chance on a WP team that boasted of 5 candidates with the academic and professional credentials to match any of the PAP teams. With heightening desires for more opposition voices in the Parliament to check against the ruling government, there was a general sentiment on the ground that the PAP’s defeat in Aljunied represented more than a loss of its representing team, but rather a culmination of national resentment towards the systems and issues of contention against the PAP. In Low Thia Khiang’s analysis of WP’s victory, he also ascertained and reiterated the fact that WP won only because voters wanted WP to be their representing voice in Parliament and not because of any shortcomings in the current team. It also reveals indications that electorate is getting less concerned about voting to achieve certain municipal goals but rather casting their votes with respect to how they believe the various political parties is able represent them at the national level.
A reflection by Zainul Abidin, one of the PAP candidate in Aljunied GRC summed it up best "Aljunied 2011 has shown that while local politics and a local campaign are still important, national issues and national politics have taken centrestage... hijacked by a call for a credible opposition presence in Parliament and a more listening government.”
Secondly, the huge number of seats contested and record high percentage of votes won by the opposition was also vindication of the presence of several strong and credible candidates recruited into the opposition’s ranks. The opposition’s failure to attract candidates of high calibre had been one of their major shortcomings and has been a huge reason for their poor showings in the past. Aspirants had been held back from joining the opposition because of what has been described as a culture of fear and a reality where the chances of winning were often marginal (K. Kesavapany, 2011). In times where even the PAP is lamenting the fact that attracting talent to enter the political scene is increasingly becoming one of the hardest agendas to achieve, the opposition can be deemed to have done considerably well in GE 2011. In particular, the local press lauded Chen Show Mai as a “star catch” for WP when he was recruited into their ranks. A candidate with scholarly pedigree, he has no doubt played a big part in bolstering to the candidacy credibility and visions of the WP. In addition, other opposition parties have also beefed up their ranks by introducing new candidates with the requisite academic and professional qualifications, among them scholars, established professionals and also individuals with good track records in the civil sectors.
The inability of the PAP in attracting new talent at a time when the opposition parties have made significant inroads in attract quality candidates may point to a shifting mindset of aspiring politicians in Singapore. In the past, aspiring opposition candidates was seen as facing a higher risk of defeat and financial losses than the ones who represented the PAP with its far superior resources and established brand name. This “climate of fear” surrounding the opposition candidates and the uniqueness of the GRC system which allowed PAP’s new candidates to have a smoother transition into the political scene under the guidance of experienced ministers in their respective GRCs, further widened the disparity in the quality of the two camps were able to attract.
The paucity of quality candidates attracted has even been confirmed by Emeritus Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong who has remarked that the “tea sessions” held by the PAP “has not been that successful” in recent times to attract talent form the private sector to join under its banner. While the cut in income for potential candidates from the private sector should they take on the political role have been attributed as one major reason, recent trends may suggest that the targeted candidates may either not support the PAP’s current systems it has in place for Singapore or may be in disagreement with some of its political, economic and social policies and ideology. For instance, Chen Show Mao had justified his reasons for joining the WP because he believed that "the best way to ensure good governance for Singapore is through the growth of a competitive opposition that offers a credible alternative to the party in government…that in time is capable to form an alternative government".
Therefore, while many in the private sector are not willing to step into the rough world of politics, there is sufficient evidence from the GE 2011 to reasonably infer that the pay was never the motivation for many opposition candidates’ decision to enter politics. Rather, a desire to see changes to the current policies on major bread and butter issues such as the cost of living and housing and healthcare and the need for more opposition voices in the parliament seems to be the major drivers behind the philosophy of the many new opposition candidates from the private sector. The political consciousness of many aspiring candidates have also no doubt been heightened and encouraged from the results of the recent GE 2011.
Apart from the results, GE 2011 also saw momentous changes in other tangible areas which have had a considerable impact on the election itself. This includes significant changes in the demography of the electorate where new and complex needs are emerging and are waiting to be answered. Also, the rise and popularity of social media as a communications tool used to great effect by the opposition has largely eroded PAP’s advantage of enjoying a much wider exposure by virtue of their superior resources and presence in mainstream media.
Firstly, as the PAP prepares to set in place the fourth generation of leadership, the need to address the issues and concerns coming from a new generation of youth voters have been a grave area of concern. While the older generations has witnessed firsthand the nation building process in a challenging era spearheaded by the PAP and sees Lee Kuan Yew as the founding father of Singapore, the newer generation of voters do not have the same level of reverence for the former prime minister and by association, the PAP. What the more liberal young voters want is greater government accountability and transparency and better handling of the issues that affect ordinary Singaporeans. In fact, issues such as higher property prices, rising cost of living, congestion and growing unemployment caused by a recent influx of immigrants have the younger generation of voters feeling squeezed out in their own country by the “foreign talents” and generated worries about the future “quality of life” in Singapore.
The PAP is already acutely aware of these demographic changes, highlighted by its emphasis on its party leadership renewal and its focus on connecting to these young voters. In fact, more than half of its new candidates are in their 20s and 30s, a conscious attempt by the PAP to send a message of intent to stay in touch with the younger voters. However, this had little impact on the results of the GE itself as the significant drop in the popular vote garnered signalled a shortfall in support among younger voters who wanted to be more engaged in the decisions which affect them. The aftermath of which resulted in Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong pledging that the PAP will undergo “soul searching” and change the way it governs in order to better serve the changing needs and demography of its electorate. A week after the results, both Lee Kuan Yew and Goh Chok Tong retired from the cabinet in a landmark move that signalled a vote of confidence in Lee Hsien Loong and his cabinet and to hand over the reins entirely to a younger generation of leaders to carry Singapore forward.
Secondly, increased computer literacy has seen the emergence of social media as an unfiltered channel for the opposition to reach voters. In previous GEs, opposition parties have often find itself having limited exposure in major state-run publishers and broadcasters, which has historically been perceived to have some degree of alignment with PAP’s ideals and decisions. Opposition parties have tried to create alternative media outlets in the past such as distribution of their own party publications to the public in the streets to limited effect. With the advent of online blogging platform like The Online Citizen and social media tools such as facebook, twitter and blogs, the opposition parties are now able to spread their political ideals and messages to the mass public without barriers, extending their reach considerably.
With this explosion of the new media tools, articles and videos of interests are created, made available and shared in real time quickly and exponentially to the public, quickly adding up to an unprecedented level of exposure for the opposition who has used the new mediums strategically to push for their agendas to be heard. This has also forced significantly more mainstream news coverage of the Opposition than in previous elections, including a televised forum bringing the PAP and four opposition parties together to discuss the short and long term challenges for Singapore, the first pre-election forum of this nature in Singapore. The increased public exposure further heightened interests in the GE 2011 to unheralded levels among the younger generation as debates, discussions and views on many national issues as well as the elections itself were being posted, read and shared over the multiple platforms of social media at the same time.
With all these factors in place, GE 2011 shaped up as one of the most hotly contested elections in Singapore and the outcome marks a distinct shift in the political landscape in Singapore. In my opinion, the PAP is still an effective party that can govern the country efficiently, but what Singapore wanted was a change in the style and approach of the government, to involve them more and listen to their voices. At the end of the day, I feel that Singaporeans still trust the PAP to do an efficient job and most want not an alternative government to a PAP, but rather a stronger opposition to challenge the government to do better.
In addition, WP’s victory at Aljunied also revealed the fact that hardball tactics traditionally employed by the PAP would no longer be an effective one and that a humbler government that can actually listen to their voices is what voters really want. To that end, PM Lee Hsien loong’s not one, but two apologies for mistakes done by the PAP during the election campaigns as well as his promises of “soul searching” for the party is a positive step forward for the people who have long had their criticisms of the party gone unanswered and alludes to the notion of a government that can and will do better.
For opposition parties, WP’s landmark victory have rubbed off in a positive way, with many announcing plans for the constituency they have contested in. Long using being an alternative voice to the PAP as their main electoral strategy, there is renewed confidence that the ability to in time form an alternative government to the PAP is not just a pipe dream but a possible reality to work towards as they prepare ahead to the next election by announcing concrete plans for the constituency they contested in, aimed at addressing accusations levelled at them for disappearing in between elections.
The challenge remains that as the younger generation becomes more educatedand issues of democracy, freedom of speech and desire for more opposition voices are fast emerging at the forefront, the onus is on the government to answer those issues. Political parties, especially the PAP have to accept that citizens will no longer mutely accept the status quo, they want their opinions heard, problems solved, rumblings soothed and their government to interact, consult and act upon their wishes rather than expect automatic acceptance without complaints.
As aptly described by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, the 2011 General Elections is “A watershed election - one that has taken place in a very different world and a very different Singapore from five years ago.”

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2) Chan Heng Chee, “Political Parties” in Jon S. T. Quah, Chang Heng Chee and Seah Chee Meow, eds., op.cit., pp. 146-172. 3) Chong Zi Liang and Kor Kian Beng. “Stakes and risk very high for opposition: WP chief” The Straits Times. April 2011. <http://www.straitstimes.com/GeneralElection/News/Story/STIStory_661811.html>

4) Hussin Mutalib, “PM Lee Hsien Loong and the “Third Generation” Leadership: Managing Key Nation-building Challenges” in Terence Chong, ed. Management of Success, Singapore Revisited, Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2010, pp. 51-66. 5) Imelda Saad. “Younger Singaporeans ‘more likely to back opposition.’” 4 October 2011. Channel News Asia. <http://www.spp.nus.edu.sg/ips/docs/media/yr2011/Internet%20election/CNA_Younger%20Sporeans%20more%20likely%20to%20back%20opposition_041011.pdf> 6) K. Kesavapany, ISEAS. “Singapore facing a watershed election” May 2011. <http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/05/06/singapore-facing-a-watershed-election/>

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10) Tan Weizhen and Leong Wee Keat. “Workers’ Party working towards becoming government:Pritam” 9 July 2011. <http://www.spp.nus.edu.sg/ips/docs/media/yr2011/post-election/TD_WP%20working%20towards%20becoming%20govt_090711.pdf> 11) “What is the future of the opposition?” in The Straits Times, 18 June, 2011, pp. A42-43

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[ 1 ]. 82 out of 87 (or 94.3%) seats were contested.
[ 2 ]. Aljunied GRC was won by the Worker’s Party (WP) team comprising of Low Thia Khiang, Sylvia Lim, Chen Show Mao, Pritam Singh and Muhamad Faisal, garnering 54.72% of all votes to the PAP’s 45.28%.
[ 3 ]. Process by which the PAP interview potential candidates by calling these people in small groups to have teas with a core group of talent scouts headed by younger leaders of the PAP.
[ 4 ]. See candidate’s philosophy. Available: http://wp.sg/wpge/candidates/chen-show-mao/
[ 5 ]. See: http://theonlinecitizen.com/
[ 6 ]. Up to 20% of the voting population are now university graduates. Figures taken from Singapore Census numbers. Available: http://www.singstat.gov.sg/