Wilmar International Ltd
PREPARED BY:
Lai Wai Kit

(U064737W)

Lee Kelvin

(U064755N)

Nattaya Kris Suebjaklap

(U064241H)

Li Zhuowei

(U064260M)

Disclaimer
Valuation reports will not be censored and will be catalogued for reference in its original submitted form. All research reports, appendices and/or presentation slides are produced strictly for academic purposes. Any such document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities nor is it mean to provide investment advice. The NUS, the NUS
Business School, the participating students, faculty members, and staff accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or any communication given in relation to this document.

W

September 30, 2009

Wilmar International Ltd

Initial Coverage:

We Invest, You Harvest

HOLD
Equity | Singapore | Plantations

Research Analysts:
Lai Wai Kit
Lee Kelvin
Nattaya Kris Suebjaklap
Li Zhuowei
+65 6321 1234 financialanalysts@kcubez.com and new markets and strong financial position.
Key Opportunities – Looking Forward

S$6.65

Current Price
S$6.32
Target Horizon 12 months
STI Index
2,672.57

STOCK INFORMATION
Bloomberg Code
WIL SP
HISTORICAL CHART
Reuters Code
WLMIF.PK
Market Cap(m)
40357.51
52-week High
S$6.99
52-week Low
S$1.80
Listing Bourse
SGX Mainboard
Average Volume (‘000)
10683.9
Beta
0.875

•

Improving global economy

•

PRICE
Target Price

Wilmar International is well-positioned due to its investment in core businesses

Positive growth prospects in emerging markets

•

Wilmar’s emphasis on growth in China, India and Indonesia

•

Resilient global demand for food and agricultural commodities

We rate Wilmar International Ltd a HOLD with a target price of S$6.65.
The Group enjoys leadership position in palm oil industry. While there are various opportunities, Wilmar is facing a variety of risks. Wilmar China IPO outperformance potential may be limited and timing is largely uncertain. Other risks include commodities price risk, credit risk, foreign exchange risk and interest rate risk. W e see Wilmar as a good pick with a strong business model.

STOCK INFORMATION
Bloomberg Code
SUPER SP
Reuters Code
SCOF.SI
Market Cap(m)
208.53
Issued Share Capital(S$m) 541.63
52-week High
S$1.20
52-week Low
S$0.30
Listing Bourse
SGX Mainboard
Average Volume (‘000)
103.9
MBeta SHAREHOLDERS
AJOR
0.86

W ilmar Holdings
MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS
PPB Group
Te Lay Hoon
Kerry Group
Goi Seng Hui Sam
Global Cocoa Holdings
Teo Kee Bck

However from our valuation, we believe that with all the uncertainties that the company faces, Wilmar is currently priced close to its fair value.
Thus, we initiate a HOLD call for Wilmar International Ltd.

Page 1 of 15

Corporate Profile
QUICK FACTS
STRONG MARKET POSITION
Largest global processor and merchandisers of palm and lauric oils, and largest global palm biodiesel manufacturer
M ARKETED BRANDS
Arawana, Koufu, Orchid, Gold
Ingots, Golden Carp, Huaqi,
Baihehua, Xiangmanyuan

Wilmar International Limited, founded in 1991 as a palm oil trading company, is today Asia’s leading agribusiness group. It is amongst the largest listed companies by market capitalisation on the Singapore Exchange.
Headquartered in Singapore, its operations are located in more than 20 countries across four continents, with a primary focus on Indonesia, Malaysia,
China, India and Europe. Backed by a staff force of about 70,000 people, over

PRODUCTS
Oil palm plantations
Palm and Lauric oil products
Soya Bean products
Edible oil

250 processing plants and an extensive distribution network, the products of
Wilmar International Limited are delivered to more than 50 countries globally.
Wilmar International Limited Distribution Network

Source: Company Information

Business Activities
Wilmar International Limited is engaged in the businesses of oil palm cultivation, oilseeds crushing, edible oils refining, consumer pack edible oils processing and merchandising, specialty fats, oleochemicals, biodiesel, fertilisers and soy protein manufacturing, rice and flour milling, and grains merchandising.
The business strategy involves building an integrated business model which captures the entire value chain of the agricultural commodity processing business, from origination, processing and transportation to the branding,
Page 2 of 15

merchandising and distribution of a wide range of agricultural products. Wilmar
International Limited’s business model enjoys lower cost due to economies of scale, integration, logistical and distribution advantages, and superior market intelligence. Geographical Segmentation
Wilmar International Limited has a strong foothold in China, India and South
East Asia, some of the fastest growing consumer markets in the world – making the stock an excellent proxy to developing markets’ consumer sector boom.
Cumulatively, these three markets that accounts for 46% of world of world population contributed approximately 79% of group revenue in FY08.

Wilmar’s FY08 revenue breakdown by regions

Source: Company Filings
Page 3 of 15

Economy Outlook
Asia Pacific Countries’ GDP Growth. In view of the tumbling global equity market and rising unemployment, most of the countries in the Asia Pacific region are expected to contract between 2% to 3% in 2009. As Wilmar International
Limited’s core revenue stream is from the Asia Pacific region, this has an immense impact on the growth of the company. Among the Asian countries, the growth prospects in China remain the strongest with expected GDP growth of
7.5%. World Bank expects developing economies (where Wilmar International
Limited heavily invests in, particularly countries like India) to recover in 2010 and an average GDP growth of 6%.
However, demand will not just be driven by just straightforward GDP growth.
Demand for edible oils is also set to grow through urbanisation, and demand for better quality agricultural products. Currently, both China and India have low per capita consumption per capita consumption per annum of vegetable oils, approximately 16kg for China and 10kg for India, as compared to developed nations such as the US, at 37kg, or a closer geographical comparison of Hong
Kong, at 32kg. A higher per capita consumption will be driven by a trend towards more processed and packaged foods with rising affluence.

Inflation Rates for Asia Pacific Countries. With the ongoing financial crisis eroding demand and economic growth, inflation rates have dropped. Although many countries such as China and Singapore have introduced economic stimulus packages to boost demand, we expect to witness a drop in inflation rates as consumption continues to remain weak till end of 2010. Thus, production costs of Wilmar International Limited are expected to decrease in
2009 and 2010, but it is expected to increase when economies recover in late
2010.

Page 4 of 15

Fluctuations in Exchange Rates. W ilmar International Limited has transactional currency exposures arising from sales/purchases that are denominated primarily Singapore Dollar (SGD), Malaysian Ringgit (Ringgit),
Thai Baht (Baht) and Renminbi (RMB). Operating in several countries and

facing foreign currency risk, Wilmar International Limited manages its currency risk by matching sales and purchases in the same currency, and through financial instruments, such as forward currency contracts.

Industry Analysis
Wilmar’s core businesses can be classified into: 1) upstream plantations, 2) merchandising & processing (M&P), 3) consumer packs, and 4) fertilisers & shipping. M&P and Plantations divisions accounted for 93% of Wilmar’s operating profit in FY08.
Upstream Plantations
Wilmar International Limited owns a total of 573k ha plantations land bank, out of which, approximately 223k ha are already planted. In terms of total land bank,
Wilmar is the fourth largest behind Sime Darby, Golden Agri and Astra Agro.
Bulk of the land bank is located in Indonesia. In addition, the group also manages about 33,867ha under the Plasma Programme in Indonesia. To serve the Russian and East Europe market, Wilmar is also growing palm oil in the
African continent. In Uganda, the group owns 4k ha planted area and in West
Africa, 36k ha and manages another 120k ha under smallholders scheme.
Merchandising & Processing
(i) Palm & Laurics

Wilmar International Limited is the world largest palm oil refiner. For strategic reasons, Wilmar does no longer disclose its production
Page 5 of 15

Data but as at the end of FY08, it owned 33 refining plants with combined capacity of 9.55mn tonnes p.a. Globally, Wilmar owns 35% of world palm oil refinery capacity. According to management, it accounted for approximately
40% of palm oil refined in Malaysia and Indonesia respectively.
From an industry perspective, the Palm & Lauric industry production is set to rise. A seasonal increase in production and stocks is expected in the 2H09, but palm oil stocks are still unusually low. India’s (third-largest buyer of vegetable oil globally) oilseeds production has improved due to rainfall in key growing areas.
The latest USDA release raises soybean production forecast to 88.3m tonnes from (87.1 tonnes) and world soybean imports from 74.5m to 75.1m tonnes.
(ii) Oilseeds and Grains
Most of Wilmar International Limited’s crushing and processing facilities are located in China where it operates integrated manufacturing facilities and controls a significant market share in crushing capacity. We estimate its installed crushing capacity is about 14mn tonnes p.a. More than 70% of the oilseeds the company crush are soybeans and in 2008, Wilmar International Limited accounted for 25% of total soybeans crushed in the country. This segment processes soya bean, rapeseed, groundnut, sunflower seed, sesame seed, cotton seed and grains (wheat and rice) into edible oils, meal, flour, rice and related products. The products are sold mainly in bulk, in drums or in branded consumer packs (for edible oils, flour and rice) to distributors, wholesalers, feed millers, industrial users and retailers in China. The group also exports meal to
Japan, Korea and Vietnam.

Page 6 of 15

Company Analysis
Wilmar’s integrated business model and significant market presence are its main competitive advantage. These factors allow Wilmar to leverage on three key areas to maximize margins: 1) cost savings, 2) economies of scale, and 3) market intelligence.
Wilmar’s strength is underpinned by its integrated business model, from origination, processing and transportation to the branding, merchandising and distribution of a wide range of agricultural products to the end customers. It also commands significant market share in the palm oil value chain and in China, soybeans processing and cooking oil market. These factors allow Wilmar to leverage on three key areas to maximize margins:
1.

Cost savings

Wilmar is a low cost producer and hence it could thrive at areas where its competitor would find difficult to operate profitably. Having an integrated business allows Wilmar to strategically locate its processing units close to origination points (mills to refinery) or consumer markets and therefore, provide efficiency gains through improved logistics – lower transportation cost. This efficiency gain translates into US$1 – 2 per tonne cost savings at each step along the value chain, which could translates into large absolute amount due to huge volume base.
According to management, pre-tax margin prior to the merger was US$12 – 15 per tonne but has grown since to > US$30 per tonne presently, partly attributable to cost savings. Figure 6 clearly indicates a broad profit enhancement post-merger except in 4Q08 when the oilseeds & grains margin was hit by volatile freight charges and difficulty in managing inventories.

Page 7 of 15

2.

Economies of scale

The business is essentially a volume story, where as highlighted above, the group controls significant amount of edible oils processing capacity. In this perspective, Wilmar benefits from having the economies of scale by providing another lever for cost savings (FFB and fertiliser procurement, freight, etc) and greater pricing power.
3.

Market intelligence

A key factor sets it apart from industry peers. Wilmar commands a vast on-theground network that gathers and feed vital information that are utilised to time raw material purchases and take trading positions. Hence, while its competitors are prone to volatile swing in raw material prices, Wilmar thrives due to market intelligence factor.
Dependent on 3rd party corps
Due to its relatively young acreage, Wilmar is still depending substantially on third parties crops to produce CPO. In FY08, internally FFB only accounted for
41% of total FFB processed. This cause Wilamr to be subjected to volatility in commodities prices.

Page 8 of 15

Strong dependence on trading
If we are to remove the supernormal profits from Wilmar’s palm & laurics segment i.e. by trimming its PBT per tonne to US$15, Wilmar’s net earnings will plunge by 22.1% to US$848.3m, thus putting its valuation at 18.1x FY09 earnings and 16.9x FY10 earnings. If we are to further halve margins for its oilseeds & grains segment, Wilmar will be tradding at 22.4x FY09 earnings and
20.7x FY10 earnings. In the merchandising & processing of palm oil & laurics segment, we estimate that at least half of the profit per tonne comes from trading. If we strip out the trading profits element from both the palm oil as well as oilseeds merchandising segments, Wilmar is trading in excess of 20x forward earnings. Page 9 of 15

Risks Analysis
Risk Management overview

Risk management is inherently an integral part of Wilmar International Limited’s business model, as it manages risks from commodity prices, counterparty credit, interest rates and currency. The company relies on the commodities markets for its supply of raw materials such as soybeans and approximately 90% of its CPO requirements. It also purchases 60% of its FFBs from third parties. Inherently,
Wilmar is exposed to commodity price risk as there is a timing gap between purchasing its raw materials and selling its finished product, due to freight and processing lead times. Wilmar mitigates this risk by through management of its commodity positions through physical and derivative contracts.
For interest rate risk, most of Wilmar International Limited’s borrowings are in the form of trade financing, and have short term tenors. Interest costs for trade financing contracts are typically priced into the selling price of their products, and hence, passed on to customers. For its long term financing, the company uses financial hedging instruments such as interest rate swaps.
Other risks
Oil World has estimated an increase in the world soybean inventory in 2010 due to expansion of Argentina’s soybean harvested acreage by 2.3m ha to 18.8m ha
Page 10 of 15

and increased yield to 2.80 MT/ha. Additionally, Brazil and US are also expected to increase production by 12.4 MT from 4Q09. The increase could pressure soybean prices, translating into lower margins for Wilmar.
Furthermore, China’s restriction on foreign crushers to expand capacity also represents a risk to Wilmar. The inability to expand would limit the Group’s profit growth. Last, Wilmar is still monitoring market conditions and has not taken a decision on timing of the listing of Wilmar China. The speculation that Wilmar may delay the listing has caused a significant drop in the share price of Wilmar today.
Thus, the timing of Wilmar China IPO is still largely uncertain. Although there is a potential for share price to overshoot fair value as a result from Wilmar China
IPO, the lack of short-term catalysts post-IPO could also limit the outperformance potential.

Page 11 of 15

Earnings Analysis
Resilient performance - 2Q09
Ahead of expectations, Wilmar posted strong results in 2Q09. Earnings came in
USD407.2mm, up 22.8% from 2Q08 of USD331.7mm due to higher margins in palm & laurics products and consumer products together with stronger plantation profit. Consumer products was the best-performing segment with pretax profit increased as much as five times to USD61.8mm. Earnings per Share
(EPS) increased by 23% to USD6.4 cents and Wilmar also declared interim taxexempt dividend of SGD0.03 per share. Despite 27% decline in turnover reflecting lower commodities prices, pre-tax profit growth has increased across almost all business segments with merely merchandising and processing of oilseeds & grains and contribution from Associates as exceptions. Increase in production volume and higher CPO selling price boosted up pre-tax profit in plantation and palm oil mills by 26% while timely purchases of raw materials and sales of products expanded margins in palm & laurics segment. Increased volume of 9% for oilseeds & grains due to strong demand is partly offset by marginally lower volume of palm & laurics by 0.8%.
Financial position
The Group’s total assets stood at USD20.7bn as at June 30, 2009. Debt to equity ratio increased to 0.39x from 0.25x at year ended 2008 on short-term borrowing due to higher working capital requirement. Wilmar posted strengthened interest coverage in 2Q09. In addition, the management also indicated that they are “fairly optimistic” on their prospect for the current year as the global economic environment improves.

Page 12 of 15

Valuation Assumptions
3-Stage Growth Model
In our valuation, we foresee Wilmar undergoing a 3-stage growth model as follow: Stage 1 – Double Digit High Growth
In the first 5 years, there exist 4 main engines that will propel strong growth rate for Wilmar.
1. Global Economic Recovery: As many economic indicators and economist consensus points towards a bottoming of the global recession, we believe that the recovery in the economy will bring about a rise in the global consumption of commodities.
2. Rising

Commodities

Prices:

With

a

rising

global

demand

for

commodities, prices are also expected to rise. Although this may crimp consumers’ spending power and hence Wilmar’s business volume, we feel that there will still be an overall positive effect on the revenue numbers. 3. Improving Living Standards in Core Emerging Markets: The growth driver for palm oil consumption has been the rising living standards in developing nations especially core business countries such as India and
China, resulting in increased edible oil demand. Furthermore, with the expected increase in meat consumption in these nations, the demand for meat drives the need for animal feed such as corn, soymeal and rapemeal. 4. Maturing Harvest: Wilmar’s tree age profile points to further production growth in the coming year. Some 13.7% of its trees are in the 4 to 6 year

Page 13 of 15

old bracket, for which the Fresh Fruit Bunch (FFB) production is accelerating. There are also 80.3k ha of immature trees which will come into production in the next 3 to 4 years, thus contributing to Wilmar’s continued output growth.
Stage 2 – High Single Digit Growth: As the economic growth starts to stabilise and the industry starts to saturate, there remains growth fromcore emerging markets which would be supplied by the growing acreage of FFB production.
However, this growth will decline slowly over a 15 years period, as it moves in tandem with the slowing growth in edible oil and animal feed demand.
Stage 3 – Flat Growth: In the third stage, after 20 years of operation, the company matures as the market becomes fully saturated and all engines of growth comes to a standstill. Thus, we assume a terminal growth rate of 1%.
Balance Sheet
Working Capital will need to increase as the company expands, in order to substantiate its growth. As we believe that working capital will need 1 year to kick year, we will estimate the change in working capital as the difference between the year’s revenue and the revenue in the year after, multiplied by an assumed multiplier of 15%.
Capital expenditure would be divided into 2 forms. The first form being the principal investment made into fixed assets to generate future growth. As we believe that capital expenditure will take a longer period of 3 to 5 years to be revenue generating, capital expenditure has peaked in 2008 to contribute for the double digit growth in Stage 1. And that it will be terminated in 2024, 5 years before it reaches terminal growth. However this does not mean that capital expenditure will be zero, as it will come in as a second form to offset the depreciation in fixed assets, in order to maintain our assumed terminal growth.

Page 14 of 15

CAMP Model
Risk Free Rate
STI Market Return
Wilmar Beta
Required Equity Return

2.45%
8.95%
0.875
8.18%

DCF Valuation
According to the CAPM model on the left, the required rate of return for equity is
8.18%. Refer to the FCFE model in the Appendix and DCF Model on the left, the

DCM Model million Terminal Value at 2029
66,063
Present Value
30,348
Shares Outstanding
6,386
Target Share Price (USD)
4.75
Target Share Price (SGD)
6.65

target share price is SGD 6.65. This shows an upside potential of only 5.22% to the current trading price SGD 6.32. Hence it supports our recommendation
“HOLD” for Wilmar.
Relative Valuation

Our peer comparison takes into consideration a basket of seven stocks comparable to Wilmar in different markets – namely Singapore, Malaysia and
Indonesia.

Applying sector average of P/E of 14.88x, we arrive at a relative valuation of
S$5.44 per share. However, we believe that S$5.4 per share does not reflect the true intrinsic value for Wilmar as Wilmar is a high growth company, growing at a faster rate than its industry peers and that sector average of P/E is too low to be applied to Wilmar. Nevertheless, this price gives return of -13.92% and thus supports our recommendation “HOLD” for Wilmar.

Name of
Company
IOI Corporation
Kuala Lumpur
Kepong
Astra Agro Lestari
Genting
Plantations
First Resources
Hap Seng
Plantations
IJM Plantations

Ticker

Listed
Exchange

Mkt Cap
(USDmm)

Forward
ROE

IOI MK

KLSE

9,424.42

18.31

18.32

KLK MK

KLSE

4,258.89

17.02

14.50

AALI IJ

JSX

3,435.07

13.15

24.61

GENP MK

KLSE

1,314.27

16.21

10.59

FR SP

SGX

957.84

11.42

15.09

HAPL MK

KLSE

525.01

11.87

8.84

IJMP MK

KLSE

518.94

16.16

11.00

14.88

14.71

17.36

14.72

Average
Wilmar
International

Forward P/E

WIL SP

SGX

28,613.47

Source: Bloomberg

Page 15 of 15

[Type text]
Income Statement
Period End Date
Sales
Cost of Revenue
Gross Profit
Net gains arising from changes in fair value
Interest income
Other operating income
Selling and distribution expenses
Administrative expenses
Other operating expenses
Finance costs
Share of results of associates
Profit before tax
Income tax expenses
Profit after tax
Attributable to
Equity holder
Minority interest
Period End Date
Sales
Cost of Revenue
Gross Profit
Net gains arising from changes in fair value
Interest income
Other operating income
Selling and distribution expenses
Administrative expenses
Other operating expenses
Finance costs
Share of results of associates
Profit before tax
Income tax expenses
Profit after tax
Attributable to
Equity holder
Minority interest

2005
4,652
(4,216)
436

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
5,302
16,466
29,145
24,224
28,342
32,593
36,505
40,885
45,383
50,375
55,412
60,953
(4,815) (14,738) (25,585) (21,726) (25,419) (29,232) (32,740) (36,669) (40,702) (45,180) (49,697) (54,667)
486
1,728
3,560
2,498
2,923
3,361
3,765
4,216
4,680
5,195
5,715
6,286

2
-14
(288)
(25)
(5)
(60)
0
74

17
-22
(263)
(37)
(21)
(69)
0
135

123
18
133
(798)
(145)
(108)
(181)
60
830

-93
277
(1,577)
(244)
(84)
(347)
111
1,789

-77
149
(789)
(257)
(45)
(496)
30
1,168

--174
(923)
(300)
(52)
(450)
57
1,429

--200
(1,061)
(345)
(60)
(564)
65
1,596

--224
(1,188)
(387)
(68)
(659)
73
1,760

--251
(1,331)
(433)
(76)
(766)
82
1,944

--279
(1,477)
(481)
(84)
(864)
91
2,144

--310
(1,640)
(534)
(93)
(966)
101
2,373

--340
(1,804)
(587)
(102)
(1,052)
111
2,620

--375
(1,984)
(646)
(113)
(1,140)
122
2,900

(15)
59

(29)
106

(155)
675

(232)
1,557

(390)
778

(257)
1,171

(271)
1,325

(299)
1,461

(330)
1,613

(364)
1,779

(403)
1,970

(445)
2,175

(493)
2,407

58
105
580
1,531
766
1,153
1,304
1,437
1,587
1,751
1,938
2,140
1
2
95
26
12
19
21
23
26
28
32
35
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
66,439
72,419
78,212
84,469
90,382
96,709 102,511 107,637 111,942 115,300 117,606 118,782
(59,587) (64,950) (70,146) (75,758) (81,061) (86,735) (91,939) (96,536) (100,398) (103,410) (105,478) (106,533)
6,852
7,468
8,066
8,711
9,321
9,973
10,572
11,100
11,544
11,891
12,129
12,250

2,369
39

--408
(2,163)
(704)
(123)
(1,210)
133
3,193

--445
(2,358)
(767)
(134)
(1,276)
145
3,523

--481
(2,546)
(828)
(145)
(1,312)
156
3,871

--519
(2,750)
(895)
(156)
(1,345)
169
4,253

--555
(2,942)
(957)
(167)
(1,338)
181
4,652

--594
(3,148)
(1,024)
(179)
(1,314)
193
5,095

--630
(3,337)
(1,086)
(190)
(1,244)
205
5,550

--661
(3,504)
(1,140)
(199)
(1,171)
215
5,963

--688
(3,644)
(1,186)
(207)
(1,226)
224
6,193

--708
(3,754)
(1,221)
(213)
(1,272)
231
6,369

--723
(3,829)
(1,246)
(218)
(1,308)
235
6,486

--730
(3,867)
(1,258)
(220)
(1,321)
238
6,552

(543)
2,651

(599)
2,924

(658)
3,213

(723)
3,530

(791)
3,861

(866)
4,229

(944)
4,607

(1,014)
4,949

(1,053)
5,140

(1,083)
5,287

(1,103)
5,383

(1,114)
5,438

2,608
42

2,878
47

3,162
51

3,474
56

3,800
62

4,161
68

4,533
74

4,870
79

5,058
82

5,202
85

5,297
86

5,351
87

[Type text]
Balance Sheet

Period End Date
Non-current assets
Property, plant and equipment
Others
Total
Current assets
Cash and bank balances
Others
Total
TOTAL ASSETS
Current liabilities
Loans and Borrowings
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
NET CURRENT ASSETS
Non-current liabilities
Loans and Borrowings
Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-Current Liabilities
TOTAL LIABILITIES
NET ASSETS
Equity
Share capital
Retained earnings
Other reserves
Minority interests
Total equity
TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES

2005

2006

366
223
589

460
319
780

20
961
980
1,569

2007
2,557
5,866
8,423

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

3,252 4,201 5,087 5,909 6,668 7,364 7,997 8,566 9,072 9,515
6,323 6,956 8,138 9,359 10,482 11,740 13,031 14,465 15,911 17,502
9,576 11,157 13,225 15,268 17,150 19,104 21,028 23,031 24,983 27,017

44
968 2,893 3,182 3,723 4,282 4,796 5,371 5,962 6,618 7,280 8,008
1,020 6,117 5,400 5,940 6,950 7,993 8,952 10,026 11,129 12,353 13,588 14,947
1,064 7,085 8,293 9,123 10,673 12,274 13,747 15,397 17,091 18,971 20,868 22,955
1,844 15,507 17,869 20,279 23,898 27,543 30,898 34,501 38,119 42,002 45,851 49,972

621
234
855

716
394
1,111

4,209
1,960
6,169

3,677
2,246
5,923

4,268
1,866
6,134

4,864
2,184
7,048

5,551
2,511
8,062

6,065
2,813
8,878

6,703 7,301 8,041 8,718 9,555
3,150 3,497 3,881 4,270 4,696
9,853 10,798 11,922 12,988 14,252

125

(47)

916

2,371

2,988

3,626

4,213

4,870

5,544

6,293

7,049

7,880

8,703

68
365
434

43
83
126

819
338
1,157

1,606
364
1,971

2,807
364
3,172

1,557
364
1,921

2,500
364
2,865

3,346
364
3,710

4,233
364
4,597

5,033
364
5,397

5,741
364
6,105

6,302
364
6,666

6,711
364
7,076

1,289
280

1,237
607

7,326
8,182

7,894 9,306 8,969 10,927 12,588 14,450 16,195 18,027 19,654 21,328
9,975 10,973 14,930 16,616 18,310 20,051 21,924 23,974 26,197 28,644

63

280

202
13
280
1,569

305
22
607
1,844

8,403
1,096
(1,653)
336
8,182
15,507

8,403
2,322
(1,118)
369
9,975
17,869

8,403
3,948
(1,759)
381
10,973
20,279

10,678
5,083
(1,231)
400
14,930
23,898

10,678
6,379
(862)
421
16,616
27,543

10,678
7,791
(603)
445
18,310
30,898

10,678
9,325
(422)
470
20,051
34,501

10,678
11,043
(296)
499
21,924
38,119

10,678
12,973
(207)
530
23,974
42,002

10,678
15,099
(145)
565
26,197
45,851

10,678
17,465
(101)
604
28,644
49,972

[Type text]

Period End Date
Non-current assets
Property, plant and equipment
Others
Total
Current assets
Cash and bank balances
Others
Total
TOTAL ASSETS
Current liabilities
Loans and Borrowings
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
NET CURRENT ASSETS
Non-current liabilities
Loans and Borrowings
Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-Current Liabilities
TOTAL LIABILITIES
NET ASSETS
Equity
Share capital
Retained earnings
Other reserves
Minority interests
Total equity
TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

9,895 10,211 10,464 10,654 10,780 10,844 10,844 10,844 10,844 10,844 10,844 10,844
19,077 20,794 22,458 24,254 25,952 27,769 29,435 30,907 32,143 33,107 33,770 34,107
28,972 31,005 32,922 34,908 36,733 38,613 40,279 41,750 42,987 43,951 44,613 44,951
8,728 9,514 10,275 11,097
16,292 17,758 19,179 20,713
25,021 27,272 29,454 31,811
53,993 58,278 62,376 66,719

11,874
22,163
34,037
70,770

12,705
23,715
36,420
75,032

13,467
25,138
38,605
78,884

14,141
26,395
40,535
82,286

14,706
27,450
42,157
85,143

15,148
28,274
43,421
87,372

15,450
28,839
44,290
88,903

15,605
29,128
44,733
89,684

10,302 11,224 12,021 13,008 13,830 14,855 15,824 16,714 17,500 18,160 18,674 18,848
5,119 5,580 6,026 6,508 6,964 7,451 7,899 8,293 8,625 8,884 9,062 9,152
15,421 16,804 18,047 19,516 20,794 22,306 23,723 25,007 26,125 27,044 27,736 28,000
9,600 10,469 11,407 12,294 13,243 14,114 14,882 15,528 16,032 16,378 16,554 16,732
6,967
364
7,331

6,993
364
7,357

6,711
364
7,075

6,188
364
6,553

5,266
364
5,630

3,903
364
4,268

1,928
364
2,293

0
364
364

0
364
364

0
364
364

0
364
364

0
364
364

22,752 24,161 25,122 26,069 26,424 26,574 26,015 25,371 26,489 27,408 28,100 28,365
31,241 34,117 37,254 40,650 44,346 48,459 52,869 56,914 58,654 59,965 60,803 61,319
10,678
19,988
(71)
646
31,241
53,993

10,678
22,796
(50)
693
34,117
58,278

10,678
25,867
(35)
744
37,254
62,376

10,678
29,196
(24)
801
40,650
66,719

10,678
32,823
(17)
863
44,346
70,770

10,678
36,863
(12)
930
48,459
75,032

10,678
41,195
(8)
1,004
52,869
78,884

10,678
45,160
(6)
1,083
56,914
82,286

10,678
46,816
(4)
1,165
58,654
85,143

10,678
48,040
(3)
1,250
59,965
87,372

10,678
48,792
(2)
1,336
60,803
88,903

10,678
49,220
(1)
1,423
61,319
89,684

[Type text]

Selected Cash Flow Statement Items
Period End Date
Depreciation
change in principle working capital
Payment of PPE in principle
Total payment of PPE
Dividends paid
Net increase in cash

2005
28.699
(134.790)
(94.241)
(94.241)
(13.106)
(107.055)

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
35.040
133.692
207.900
252.069
305.208
354.553
400.101
441.854
479.811
513.972
544.338
570.908
(65.713) (1,836.524) 1,629.929
(617.712) (637.697) (586.681) (657.083) (674.605) (748.812) (755.619) (831.181) (822.869)
(149.627) (544.468) (1,012.188) (948.926) (885.665) (822.403) (759.141) (695.879) (632.618) (569.356) (506.094) (442.832)
(149.627) (544.468) (1,012.188) (1,200.995) (1,190.873) (1,176.955) (1,159.242) (1,137.733) (1,112.428) (1,083.328) (1,050.432) (1,013.740)
(6.000)
(51.763) (267.199)
860.956
(17.763)
(7.852)
(25.798)
(52.510)
(32.974)
(8.234)
(14.037)
(3.038)
7.149
446.044
658.810
289.310
541.010
558.513
513.832
575.492
590.839
655.831
661.793
727.972

Period End Date
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Depreciation
------------(896.927) (869.023) (938.545) (886.925) (949.009) (870.377) (768.833) (645.820) (503.740) (345.901) (176.410) (178.174) change in principle working capital
Payment of PPE in principle
(379.571) (316.309) (253.047) (189.785) (126.524)
(63.262)
------Total payment of PPE
(379.571) (316.309) (253.047) (189.785) (126.524)
(63.262)
------Dividends paid
(21,060.778) (3,919.937) (4,233.532) (4,572.214) (4,892.269) (5,234.728) (5,548.812) (5,826.253) (6,059.303) (6,241.082) (6,365.903) (6,429.562)
Net increase in cash
(8,007.695)
------------

Discounted Cash Flow Model

Period End Date
Net income
- net capex
- change in net working cap
+ net change in debt
FCFE

Period End Date
Net income
- net capex
- change in net working cap
+ net change in debt
FCFE

2009
766
(1,201)
(618)
1,792
739

2020
3,162
(881)
(939)
515
1,857

2010
1,153
(1,191)
(638)
(655)
(1,331)

2011
1,304
(1,177)
(587)
1,630
1,170

2021
3,474
(829)
(887)
465
2,223

2012
1,437
(1,159)
(657)
1,360
981

2022
3,800
(773)
(949)
(101)
1,976

2013
1,587
(1,138)
(675)
1,524
1,299

2023
4,161
(714)
(870)
(338)
2,240

2014
1,751
(1,112)
(749)
1,398
1,288

2024
4,533
(651)
(769)
(1,006)
2,108

2015
1,938
(1,083)
(756)
1,448
1,547

2025
4,870
(651)
(646)
(1,039)
2,535

2016
2,140
(1,050)
(831)
1,239
1,497

2026
5,058
(651)
(504)
786
4,690

2017
2,369
(1,014)
(823)
1,246
1,778

2027
5,202
(651)
(346)
660
4,865

2018
2,608
(973)
(897)
1,002
1,740

2028
5,297
(651)
(176)
514
4,985

2019
2,878
(929)
(869)
948
2,028

2029
5,351
(651)
(178)
174
4,696