...Volume–VII, Number–02, July-December, 2012 Effects of Interest Rate and Exchange Rate on Volatility of Market Index at Dhaka Stock Exchange DEWAN MUKTADIR-AL-MUKIT * ABSTRACT The paper investigates the effects of the exchange rates and interest rates on stock market performance by using monthly time series data for the economy of Bangladesh, over the period of 1997 to 2010. This study uses econometric techniques of measuring the long and short term relationship between variables using the concept of Cointegration and Error Correction Model and analysis of Variance Decomposition. Causal relationships have been investigated using Granger causality test. By employing Cointegration technique it is observed that in the long run, a one percent increase in exchange rate and in interest rate contributes1.04% increase and 1.71 % decrease in market index respectively. The estimated error correction coefficient indicates that 7.8 percent deviation of stock returns are corrected in the short run. Finally, Granger causality analysis suggests the existence of a unidirectional causality from market index to exchange rate and from interest rate to market index. Keywords: Cointegration, Granger Causality. Exchange rate, Interest rate, DGEN index 1. INTRODUCTION A well functioning financial system boosts economic growth through proper and efficient allocation of resources. As a part of financial system, the importance and role of stock market towards achieving economic growth is crucial. The...
Words: 5540 - Pages: 23
...sector & Stock Exchange and Conceptual framework – Macroeconomic variable |3.1 An overview of Banking sector and Stock market of Bangladesh | We are interested in investigating the relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables because individual investors can earn abnormal profits by exploiting this relationship and the existence of this utilizable opportunity would then dangerously distort the market’s ability to proficiently allocate scarce resources. In other word, the stock market will lose its informational efficiency. Informational efficiency is defined as at any given time, stock prices fully reflect all available information of the market. Thus, no investor has an advantage in predicting a return on a stock price because no one has access to information not already available to everyone else. Identifying the relationship or informational efficiency thus can be used to correct the current economic stabilization policies. Therefore, the issue of whether stock prices and macroeconomic variables are related or not have received considerable attention. This paper provides empirical evidence of the relationship between stock prices with each of the macroeconomic variables: exchange rate, inflation rate, money supply variables and so on. The knowledge of the prevailing relationship between stock prices one the one hand, and micro variables like market price/ earnings, growth rate in market capitalization...
Words: 3958 - Pages: 16
...1 Abstract Based on a vector autoregressive (VAR) framework and utilising both recursive and structural specifications, this study analyses the effects of interest rate, money growth and the movements in nominal exchange rate on real GDP growth and inflation in Sri Lanka for the period from 1978 to 2005. The results of the recursive VARs are broadly in line with the established empirical findings, especially when the interest rate is considered the monetary policy variable. Following a positive innovation in interest rate, GDP growth and inflation decrease while the exchange rate appreciates. When money growth and exchange rate are used as policy indicators, the impact on GDP growth contrasts with established findings. However, as expected, an exchange rate appreciation has an immediate impact on the reduction of inflation. Interest rate innovations are persistent, supporting the view that the monetary authority adjusts interest rates gradually, while innovations in money growth and exchange rate appreciation are not persistent. Several puzzling results emerge from the study: for most sub-samples, inflation does not decline following a contractionary policy shock; innovations to money growth raises the interest rate; when inflation does respond, it reacts to monetary innovations faster than GDP growth does; and exchange rate appreciations almost always lead to an increase in GDP growth. The results from the semi-structural VARs, which impose identification restrictions only on...
Words: 18533 - Pages: 75
...Risk and risk management 1. Credit Risk – The risk of loss of principal or loss of a financial reward stemming from a borrower's failure to repay a loan or otherwise meet a contractual obligation. Credit risk arises whenever a borrower is expecting to use future cash flows to pay a current debt. Investors are compensated for assuming credit risk by way of interest payments from the borrower or issuer of a debt obligation. The higher the perceived credit risk, the higher the rate of interest that investors will demand for lending their capital. Credit risks are calculated based on the borrowers' overall ability to repay. This calculation includes the borrowers' collateral assets, revenue-generating ability and taxing authority (such as for government and municipal bonds). 1) Total loans to assets The loans to assets ratio measures the total loans outstanding as a percentage of total assets. The higher this ratio indicates a bank is loaned up and its liquidity is low. The higher the ratio, the more risky a bank may be to higher defaults. This figure is determined as follows: Loans to Assets = ( Loans / Total Assets ) 2) Nonperforming loans/total loans Nonperforming loans, or NPL, are loans that are no longer producing income for the bank that owns them. Loans become nonperforming when borrowers stop making payments and the loans enter default. The exact classification can vary from institution to institution, but a loan is usually considered to be nonperforming after...
Words: 2314 - Pages: 10
...6 Factors That Influence Exchange Rates Изображение Стр. 1 Home Videos Dictionary Acronyms Bonds Buzzwords FOREX Mutual Funds Options & Futures Retirement Stocks Taxes Tech Analysis Trading Articles Stock Analysis Special Features Investing Basics Stocks Mutual Funds FOREX ETFs Active Trading Bonds Financial Theory Fundamental Analysis Options & Futures Personal Finance Real Estate & Mortgages Retirement FAQs View All Tutorials Special Features Beginners Experienced Investors Active Traders Retirement Exam Prep Quizzes CFA Level I CFA Level II CFA Level III Series 6 Series 7 Series 26 Series 63 Series 65 Series 66 CSC More Exams... FXtrader Home Trade Now Challenges Login Simulator Home My Portfolio Trade Stock Games Resources http://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/04/050704.asp 05.03.2011 1:09:20 6 Factors That Influence Exchange Rates Login Financial Edge Free Tools Stock Ideas Free Annual Reports Guides and Books Learn About Futures Mortgage Offers Financial Calculators Стр. 2 .omestopediaи е Страница, размещенная в публичном Интернет, запрашивает данные из вашей частной локальной сети. По соображениям безопасности автоматический доступ будет заблокирован, но вы можете его разрешить. Продолжить Всегда продолжать при запросе данных с данного сервера в мою закрытую локальную сеть enter keywords enter symbol Get Quote Предупреждени е Страница, размещенная в публичном Интернет, запрашивает данные из вашей частной локальной сети. По соображениям...
Words: 1906 - Pages: 8
...Three-month Exchange Rate Forecasting between USD and JPY Abstract This paper aims at the forecast of USD-JPY exchange rate on 1st May, 2012 based on the data collected before 1st Feb. 2012. The result proves satisfactory predictions when summarize using the fundamental forecasting, market-based forecasting and mixed forecasting all into consideration. The use of PPP gives the most accurate prediction comparing with the real rate of 1st May, 2012, though the exchange rate is actually affected by several other facets. The paper further discusses the advantages and lack points of each method, so that the forecasting errors can be comprehended. Key Words Exchange Rate Forecasting Regression Analysis PPP IFE Forecasting Error Introduction With the development of our society, globalization has become an inevitable trend. Since the late twentieth century, financial permeation has become a profound and widespread issue. Exchange rate, an important link of international financial relationship, has almost penetrated into every corner of economics and played an increasingly significant role in our life. Therefore, it is of great meaning for investment and management to forecast the exchange rate. Ever since Meese and Rogoff (1983) initiated the research on out-of-sample forecasting that has become standard procedure for exchange-rate model validation, work in this area has discovered three things. First, the particular time-period of the sample matters...
Words: 4707 - Pages: 19
...Formulae Final Examination Financial Accounting and Financial Statement Analysis l Equity Valuation and Analysis l Corporate Finance l Economics Table of Contents 1. Financial Accounting and Financial Statement Analysis 1.1 Generally Accepted Accounting Principles: Assets, Liabilities and 1 Shareholders’ Equities ......................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 1.2.1 1.3.1 1.3.2 1.3.3 Assets: Recognition, Valuation and Classification....................................... 1 Earning per Share ......................................................................................... 1 Profitability Analysis ..................................................................................... 2 Risk Analysis ................................................................................................ 5 Break-Even Analysis .................................................................................... 6 1.2 Financial Reporting and Financial Statement Analysis ...................................... 1 1.3 Analytical tools for Assessing Profitability and Risk......................................... 2 2. Equity Valuation and Analysis 2.1.1 2.1.2 2.1.3 7 2.1 Valuation Model of Common Stock .................................................................... 7 Dividend Discount Model............................................................................. 7 Free Cash Flow Model...
Words: 4580 - Pages: 19
...economy at the regional or national level and affects a large population rather than a few select individuals. Macroeconomic factors are key indicators of economic performance and are closely monitored by governments, businesses and consumers. Macroeconomic factors are the factors which affect the wider economy. In other words these factors seem to summarize the picture of economy. Macroeconomic variables include economic output, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, money supply, exchange rate, foreign reserves, savings and investment. Variables used in study: • Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services. Consequently, inflation also reflects erosion in the purchasing power of money – a loss of real value in the internal medium of exchange and unit of account within the economy. A chief measure of price inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index (normally the CPI) over time. A consumer price index (CPI) measures changes in the price level of consumer goods and services purchased by households. It captures the retail price movement for different sections of consumers. In India, the Consumer Price Index or CPI measures changes in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services. It is a measure that examines the weighted average...
Words: 4182 - Pages: 17
...The Relationship between Interest Rate and Exchange Rate in India Pradyumna Dash[1] Introduction The theoretical as well as empirical relationship between the interest rate and exchange rate has been a debatable issue among the economists. According to Mundell-Fleming model, an increase in interest rate is necessary to stabilize the exchange rate depreciation and to curb the inflationary pressure and thereby helps to avoid many adverse economic consequences. The high interest rate policy is considered important for several reasons. Firstly, it provides the information to the market about the authorities’ resolve not to allow the sharp exchange rate movement that the market expects given the state of the economy and thereby reduce the inflationary expectations and prevent the vicious cycle of inflation and exchange rate depreciation. Secondly, it raises the attractiveness of domestic financial assets as a result of which capital inflow takes place and thereby limiting the exchange rate depreciation. Thirdly, it not only reduces the level of domestic aggregate demand but also improves the balance of payment position by reducing the level of imports. But the East Asian currency crisis and the failure of high interest rates policy to stabilize the exchange rate at its desirable level during 1997-1998 have challenged the credibility of raising interest rates to defend the exchange rate. Critics argue that the high interest rates imperil the ability of the domestic firms...
Words: 8636 - Pages: 35
...understanding on the forces driving exchange rate changes as these would affect investment and financing opportunities. This report analyzes the movements of three currencies, Australian Dollar (AUD), Icelandic Krona (ISK), and Indian Rupee (INR) against US dollar, and suggests events that may cause the violations of three chosen currencies. Analysis shows that factors including but not limited to inflation rates, interest rate differences, foreign investment as well as demand and supply of domestic currency are highly correlated with exchange rate changes in chosen currencies. Based on the analysis, Purchasing Power Parity is used to forecast spot exchange rates of those chosen currencies in one-year and three-year time. Rationales and limitations of PPP are also given to analyze the forecasts of three currencies. Table of Content 1.0 Introduction 1 2.0 Question 1 1 2.1 AUD/USD 1 3.0 Question 2 4 3.1 ISK/USD 4 3.2 INR/USD 6 3.3 Common Events that May Have Influenced the Exchange Rate Changes 8 4.0 Question 3 9 4.1 Forecast of Currencies 9 4.2 Forecast of AUD 10 4.3 Forecast of ISK 11 4.3 Forecast of INR 11 4.3 Comments on the Forecasts 12 References 13 Figures & Tables Figure 1 Exchange Rate of AUD/USD Over Five Years 1 Figure 2 Percentage Change of AUD/USD Exchange Rate 2 Figure 3 Trends of AUD/USD and Gold Price 2 Figure 4 AUD/USD Exchange Rate and Interest Rate over Five Years 3 Figure 5 Exchange Rate (ISK/USD) 4 Figure 6 Percentage...
Words: 3687 - Pages: 15
...foreign exchange market does not have a physical market place called the foreign exchange market. It is a mechanism through which one country's currency can be exchange i.e. bought or sold for the currency of another country. The foreign exchange market does not have any geographic location. The market comprises of all foreign exchange traders who are connected to each other through out the world. They deal with each other through telephones, telexes and electronic systems. The foreign exchange market operates twenty four hours a day during the business week; the only time it is silent is after the New York market closes on Friday afternoon and before the Sydney market opens on Monday morning (which would be Sunday evening New York time). In the aftermath of the Asian crisis, which curbed and restricted offshore trading in regional currencies, most derivatives markets in Asia are still in their infancy. Financial institutions trying to introduce or transplant products from mature markets to those that are lesser developed are meeting with limited success. The RBI has ushered rupee derivatives trading into the country: it has formally allowed banks and corporate to hedge against interest rate risks through the use of interest rate swaps (IRS) and forward rate agreement (FRA). According to the guidelines issued by RBI there will be no restriction on the tenure and size of the IRS and FRA entered into by banks. The IRS will also allow corporate to hedge their interest rate risks...
Words: 11166 - Pages: 45
...The Developing Economies, XLI-4 (December 2003): 401–35 401 EFFECTS OF THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE ON OUTPUT AND INFLATION: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY HAKAN BERUMENT MEHMET PASAOGULLARI This paper assesses the effects of real depreciation on the economic performance of Turkey by considering quarterly data from 1987:I to 2001:III. The empirical evidence suggests that, contrary to classical wisdom, the real depreciations are contractionary, even when external factors like world interest rates, international trade, and capital flows are controlled. Moreover, the results obtained from the analyses indicate that real exchange rate depreciations are inflationary. I. INTRODUCTION interest among academics and policymakers on the controversial issue of exchange rate policies in general and exchange rate regimes and real exchange rates in particular. The effects of financial crises on the global economy are getting more severe, and international trade and capital movements have begun to be central factors in the evolution of such a crisis. Domestic factors that lead to crises in various countries are different, but there are also common features of these crises: big devaluations or depreciations in domestic currency and the subsequent significant output losses of the crisis-hit countries. Turkey has often experienced financial crises in its history. In 1994 and 2001, the nominal domestic currency depreciated 62 per cent and 53 per cent, respectively. This made the effects of large depreciations...
Words: 16182 - Pages: 65
...researching. This study will be totally divided into two parts. The first part aims to analyze the past performance that how much JPY appreciated or depreciated against USD between Jan 1st 2015 to Oct 31st 2015 and the reason about this past performance. Meanwhile, through different methods, the second part try to forecast exchange rate of USD/JPY in the future at the end of 2016. JPY/USD from Jan 1st 2015 to Oct 31st 2015 According to the following Figure 1, the close exchange rate of JPY/USD in Jan 1st 2015 was $0.00835/¥ and it was $0.00829/¥ in Oct 31st 2015. It seemed that the exchange rate remain stable within the 10 months, while the big fluctuation existed during this period. The lowest close exchange rate JPY/USD was $0.00796/¥ and the highest one was $0.00861/¥. Specifically, if a speculator used 1,000,000 Yen to buy dollar at the highest exchange rate and sold these dollar for Yen at the lowest exchange rate, he would obtain 1,081,714 Yen at the end, whose profit was much higher than depositing in the bank. Therefore, the fluctuation between JPY and USD made the exchange rate hard to predict. In addition, the percentage of change in exchange rate was – 0.72% during this period. It indicated that JPY had depreciated 0.72% against USD from 1/1/2015 to 31/10/2015. Notably, JPY suffered depreciation against USD beginning form 2012 and it depreciated almost 30% against USD in the whole year in 2012. In this study, we think that easy money policy is one of the major...
Words: 1661 - Pages: 7
...of Contents Analysis of Bangladeshi Taka (BDT) against US Dollar($) 3 Factors that influences BDT 5 Analysis of Macroeconomic variables 7 Income level 7 Fig: Income receipts of Bangladesh from 2005-2012in US dollar 8 Income payments (US dollar) in Bangladesh 8 Effects of inflation on income 9 Effects of interest rates on income level: 11 Theory of Interest Rate Parity and BDT 12 Theory of Purchasing Power Parity 14 Theory of International Fisher Effect against BDT 16 Regulations on foreign currency transfers/remittances 16 Analysis of investment opportunity for US-based MNC 17 Analysis of Bangladeshi Taka (BDT) against US Dollar ($) Exchange rates play a vital role in a country's level of trade. This is critical to almost every free market-oriented economy in the world. Numerous factors such as inflation, interest rates, current-account/trade balance, public (government) debt and political environment determine exchange rates and all are related to the trading relationship between any two countries. The exchange rate, measured as a number of units of local currency per unit of foreign currency, is the price of the foreign currency in terms of the local currency. Like any other price, the value of the foreign currency in the local market depends on its supply and demand. Like all other countries, the exchange rate management is one of the central issues of macroeconomic policies of Bangladesh. There are four types of exchange rate system- fixed...
Words: 4139 - Pages: 17
...www.ccsenet.org/ijef International Journal of Economics and Finance Vol. 4, No. 1; January 2012 The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Nigeria: A Sectoral Output Analysis Philip Ifeakachukwu, NWOSA (Correspondence author) Department of Economics, Accounting and Finance Bells University of Technology, Ota, Ogun State, Nigeria Tel: 234-082-470-7555 E-mail: nwosaphilip@yahoo.com Muibi Olufemi, SAIBU Dept of Economics, Obafemi Awolowo University Ile-Ife, Osun State, Nigeria Tel: 234-085-338-1914 Received: May 31, 2011 doi:10.5539/ijef.v4n1p204 Abstract E-mail: omosaibu@yahoo.com Published: January 1, 2012 Accepted: July 5, 2011 URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v4n1p204 The study investigated the transmission channels of monetary policy impulses on sectoral output growth in Nigeria for the period 1986 to 2009. Secondary quarterly data were used for the study while granger causality and Vector Auto-regressive Method of analysis were utilized. The results showed that interest rate channel was most effective in transmitting monetary policy to Agriculture and Manufacturing sectors while exchange rate channel was most effective for transmitting monetary policy to Building/Construction, Mining, Service and Wholesale/Retail sectors. The study concluded that interest rate and exchange rate policies were the most effective monetary policy measures in stimulating sectoral output growth in Nigeria. Keywords: Sectoral output, Monetary transmission channels, Granger...
Words: 6525 - Pages: 27