...Impact of Macro-Economic Variables on the Stock Market Impact of Macro-Economic Variables on the Stock Market Arunabha Dhar (Roll No. 008) Gaurav Bhatt (Roll No. 017) Amartya Ray (Roll No. 067) Bodhisatva Basu (Roll No. 075) Rahul Jain (Roll No. 094) Arunabha Dhar (Roll No. 008) Gaurav Bhatt (Roll No. 017) Amartya Ray (Roll No. 067) Bodhisatva Basu (Roll No. 075) Rahul Jain (Roll No. 094) Contents UNDERSTANDING ON RESEARCH PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION & DEFINITION 3 ABSTRACT 3 INTRODUCTION 3 LITERATURE REVIEW 6 GAP in Research 8 MOTIVATION 8 DATA COLLECTION/SAMPLE SELECTION 9 HYPOTHESIS 10 Research Methodology 10 FINDINGS 11 CONTRIBUTION TO LITERATURE 23 CONCLUSIONS 23 References 25 UNDERSTANDING ON RESEARCH PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION & DEFINITION Relationship between macroeconomic variables and broad market index: A causal relationship between Nifty CNX and macroeconomic variables in India ABSTRACT The relationship between macroeconomic variables and broad market index by now are well documented in the literature. However a void in the literature relates to examining the causal relationship between Nifty CNX and macroeconomic variables such as FDI, FPI, weighted average lending rate (WALR), GDP and oil import in India and correlation among the macro variables. INTRODUCTION Globalization of Indian economy post liberalization has been spurred by capital and stock investment in terms of FDI & FPI. Indian stock market both securities...
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...mentioned that the Indian stock markets are one of the oldest in Asia. Its history dates back to nearly 200 years ago. The earliest records of security dealings in India are meager and obscure. By 1830's business on corporate stocks and shares in Bank and Cotton presses took place in Bombay. Though the trading list was broader in 1839, there were only few brokers recognized by banks and merchants during 1840 and 1850. The 1850's witnessed a rapid development of commercial enterprise and brokerage business attracted many men into the field and by 1860 the number of brokers increased into 60. In 1860-61 the American Civil War broke out and cotton supply from United States to Europe was stopped; thus, the 'Share Mania' in India begun. The number of brokers increased to about 200 to 250. However, at the end of the American Civil War, in 1865, a disastrous slump began (for example, Bank of Bombay Share which had touched Rs 2850 could only be sold at Rs. 87). At the end of the American Civil War, the brokers who thrived out of Civil War in 1874, found a place in a street (now appropriately called as Dalal Street) where they would conveniently assemble and transact business. In 1887, they formally established in Bombay, the "Native Share and Stock Brokers' Association" (which is alternatively known as “The Stock Exchange“). Trading was at that time limited to a dozen brokers. These stock brokers organized an informal association -the Native Shares and Stock Brokers Association, Bombay...
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...Literature Review on Bangladesh Stock Market Literature Review: 1 Before the decade of eighty much of the stock market literature viewed the present value of dividends to be the principal determinant of market return of stocks. LeRoy and Porter (1981) and Shiller (1981) found that under the assumption of constant discount factor stock prices were too volatile to be consistent with movement in future dividends. The decomposition of stock price movements is very sensitive to what assumption is made about the presence of permanent changes in either real dividend growth or excess stock return (Wohar & Mark, 2006). Cochrane (1992) Timmerman (1995) have argued that fluctuation in stock prices can be explained by time-varying discount rates and future excess returns. Cochrane (1992) by using an alternative methodology to decompose the variability of stock prices also found the variability of excess return to be more important than the variability of dividend growth. A lower degree of efficiency in less developed countries market might be caused by common characteristics of loose disclosure requirements as well as thinness and discontinuity of trading. It is generally assumed that the emerging markets are less efficient than the developed markets. Raihan, et al (2007) found that in Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) in Bangladesh, stock return series do not follow random walk model and the significant autocorrelation co-efficient at different lags do not accept the hypothesis...
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...of F in a n ce (H on ou r s) 2010 CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1 Introduction Stock market is a place for listed companies to raise capital .Companies can use the capital for continuing operating activities and expand business. However, the investors are explained to get a positive return from dividend and capital gain in the stock market. Based on the history, the economic condition will influence stock market. For instances, Malaysia faced deflation during the Asian crisis in years 1997. It caused the KLCI index sharply reduced from 1207.43 to 470.43. It have been shown that the investors need to predict the stock prices based on the macro factors to get an abnormal return from stock market There were a lot of researches to study the relationship between macroeconomics variables and stock returns. It is important to study the interaction of macroeconomics factor and stock return. Based on the study, the public can identify which factors can influence the stock market and use the knowledge to predict movement of stock price. According to Wongbangpo & Sharma (2002), the research can reveal the functions of stock market in identify the change in economic condition and also can predict the future performance of stock market. Besides, the study will be useful for the stock market participators. Clare & Priestley (1998) said that the study of the risk factor relationship of stock market will be useful for corporate manager to undertake cost of capital calculation. Moreover...
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...Factors affecting on stock price 1. Introduction The stock market has become an essential market playing a vital role in economic prosperity that fostering capital formation and sustaining economic growth. Stock markets are more than a place to trade securities; they operate as a facilitator between savers and users of capital by means of pooling of funds, sharing risk, and transferring wealth. Stock markets are essential for economic growth as they insure the flow of resources to the most productive investment opportunities. In essence, a large number of economic variables like gross domestic product, interest rates, current account, monthly supply, employment, their information etc. have an impact on daily stock prices (Kurihara, 2006). This paper reflects how stock price is determined by considering the effect of different factors and outlines whether the internal, external and economic factors have impact on stock pricing. This study is about to know whether Dividends, paid up capital, market capital, corporate social responsibility, lawsuits, Retained Earnings, AGM, EGM, Earning Per Share, Rumors, Margin Loan, Net Income, Face Value, Return on Investment, Goodwill of the firm, Company News, Analysts Report, Sentiment, Rumors, etc. depends on stock price or merely some special factors like stock dividend, P/E ratio, government policy, macroeconomics fundamental, investors sentiment...
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...On the Relationship between stock return and exchange rate: evidence on China Yaqiong Li a b , Lihong Huang b a b The Business School, Loughborough University ,UK College of Mathematics and Econometrics, Hunan University, Changsha ,Hunan ,China Abstract The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between RMB exchange rate and A-share stock returns in China, in particular in Shanghai stock market. We find that both stock returns and RMB nominal exchange rate are integrated of order 1. The Engle–Granger cointegration test is then performed, suggesting that there is not a long-run equilibrium relationship between stock returns and RMB exchange rates at 5% significance level. However, there is strong evidence suggesting that there is a short-run uni-directional causality relationship from the nominal exchange rate to the stock returns. Keywords: cointegration; Granger causality; RMB exchange rate; stock return; unit root test. 1. Introduction The China’s exchange rate policy has recently emerged as one of major issues in the trade between the PR of China and the United States of America. The controversy is fuelled by China’s pegging of RMB to USD. Since a major devaluation of the RMB in 1994, the Chinese currency’s exchange rate vis-a-vis USD remained more or less unchanged until 21 July 2005, and has fluctuated from RMB 8.22 to 8.11 per dollar since then. The Chinese Authority has recently announced that “RMB will be no longer pegged to the US dollar”...
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...Managerial Economics Unit1 - 2 Mark Quiz Questions 1.Decision-making implies a. Giving judgement on a particular isuue b. Taking a final decision on a particular issue c. Selecting the best out of several alternative course of actions d. Selecting alternative solutions. 2.Forward Planning implies a. A plan to execute current programs b. A Plan prepared in advace for future c. A plan prepared in the background of certainties d. A Plan prepared for past and present 3.Managerial Economics deals with a. Provide alternative solutions to the problems b. Providing solutions to various business and management problems c. Providing tools and techniques to find answers for business and management problems d. Analyzing various business and managerial problems of a firm. 4.Managerial Economics helps a. To optimise abundant resources to maximise profits b. To find answers only for present problems in the background of past events c. To analyse present problems in the background of past d. To find solutions for present and future problems on the basis of past and present environment Unit2 - 2 Mark Quiz Questions 1.A product can be considered as inferior in economics if increase in disposable income of the consumer causes a. Increase in demand b. No change in demand c. Less than proportionate change in demand. d. Decrease in demand 2.Demand Schedule of a firm shows quantities of a commodity a. Purchased at varying prices at different periods of time. b. That can be purchased at varying...
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...to determine whether professional managers add value to the portfolios they manage or merely create excessive transaction costs through active management. Stock selection and market timing are the two basic abilities that drive manager performance. The focus of this report is on market timing as it examines if an investment strategy that changes allocations in response to economic conditions is better than a traditional buy and hold strategy. The analysis utilizes daily return data covering the period from January 1990 to March 2010 with the test portfolio consisting of two risky assets (the total return on the S&P500 and NASDAQ) and a risk-free asset (the return on the 10-year government bond). The predictive instruments include changes in the level and shape of the term structure of interest rates and the market’s implied volatility, given current short-term rates as suggested by the level of 1-year government bond rates. A one-factor regression model is employed to test the hypothesis; the factor being the excess return of the portfolio on the market – a measure of of the portfolio manager’s timing ability. The underlying basis is that if a manager increases (decreases) the portfolio's market exposure prior to a market increase (decrease) then the portfolio's return will be a convex function of the market's return, and will be positive. The regression results exhibit a solid positive value for the market timing coefficient, suggesting significant...
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...overview – Banking sector & Stock Exchange and Conceptual framework – Macroeconomic variable |3.1 An overview of Banking sector and Stock market of Bangladesh | We are interested in investigating the relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables because individual investors can earn abnormal profits by exploiting this relationship and the existence of this utilizable opportunity would then dangerously distort the market’s ability to proficiently allocate scarce resources. In other word, the stock market will lose its informational efficiency. Informational efficiency is defined as at any given time, stock prices fully reflect all available information of the market. Thus, no investor has an advantage in predicting a return on a stock price because no one has access to information not already available to everyone else. Identifying the relationship or informational efficiency thus can be used to correct the current economic stabilization policies. Therefore, the issue of whether stock prices and macroeconomic variables are related or not have received considerable attention. This paper provides empirical evidence of the relationship between stock prices with each of the macroeconomic variables: exchange rate, inflation rate, money supply variables and so on. The knowledge of the prevailing relationship between stock prices one the one hand, and micro variables like market price/ earnings...
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...Macroeconomics? • It is that branch of economics, which deals economic affairs at large i.e. total or aggregates • Concerns itself with variables such as – – – – Aggregate output of the economy Extent to which its resources are used Size of National Income General Price Level Introduction • Managers have to deal with economic environment at two levels – micro level and macro level • Micro level includes market structure and the strength of competitors. Firm’s decision making is mostly influenced by the activities of its rival forms. The following are some factors that affect firms decision at micro level – Level of competition – Cost of production and – Product differentiation Introduction • Macro level includes the overall system. This is something that the firm assumes to the given. • Decision making of the firm is affected by the macroeconomic environment. • The following macroeconomic factors have a strong effect on firm’s decision making – Overall Demand – Price Level – Rate of interest – Tax policies and – Exchange Rates Introduction • It is important for managers to know the macroeconomics because an unprecedented change in any of these factors can upset the revenue and cost of the firm, affecting the profitability and returns. • The problem can be minimized or managed if managers know the working of an economy and thereby, judge the direction of possible changes in macroeconomic variables and policies. • With this, they...
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...of interest rate on stock market 3 A study based on the effects of interest rate (KIBOR) on share price 4 Market Interest rate and commercial bank profitability in Pakistan 5 Determinants of Corporate dividend payout policy 6 Effects of Free Cash flow on profitability of firms 7 Determinant of dividend payout ratio: A study of Pakistani fertilizer sector 8 Fundamentals and stock returns in Pakistan 9 Effects of mergers and acquisition in banking sector of Pakistan 10 Impact of Privatization of banks on profitability 11 Can risk aversion indicators anticipate financial crises? 12 Cash flow and capital spending relationship: evidence from automobile sector 13 Impact of Privatization on profitability and efficiency of banks in Pakistan 14 To study the relationship between price earning ratio and return on investment 15 A test of price earning ratio to predict future growths 16 Factors affect on the dividend payout ratio (sugar industry) 17 Impact of macro-economic variables on stock sector of Pakistan 18 Relationship between Cash flow and investment spending in textile industry 19 Impact of taxation on firm’s dividend payout/ratio 20 Share price volatility explicatedmeasured by fundamentals 21 Stock price and economic variables ( Interest rate, inflation and GDP) 22 Determinants of P/E Ratio 23 Impact of capital structure on profitability 24 Impact of interest rate changes on bank’s profitability 25 Relationship of stock market returns and rate of inflation ...
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...volume of trade, number of participant, long-term yield curve, interest rate policy etc. In view of this, the present study has been undertaken aiming at identifying the problems that impedes the growth and development of Bond Market in Bangladesh. Researchers have collected both prima ry and secondary data and analysed the same by employing descriptive measure as well as multivariate technique-Varimax Rotated Factor Analysis. The study has found that the size of debt market of Bangladesh is very low as compared to other SAARC Countries; has huge growth potentiality; and identified important impediments to the growth and development of Bond Market in Bangladesh such as risk and return factor, liquidity and government policy factor, issue management factor, investment policy factor, macro economic and regulatory factor, and market & issue related factor. The study has suggested some important policy measures such as regulatory change, establishment of long-term yield curve, offering fiscal benefits, encouraging companies raising funds through corporate bond issues, keeping treasury rate low etc. for the development of Bond...
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...very inefficient with respect to number of issues, volume of trade, number of participant, long-term yield curve, interest rate policy etc. In view of this, the present study has been undertaken aiming at identifying the problems that impedes the growth and development of Bond Market in Bangladesh. Researchers have collected both primary and secondary data and analysed the same by employing descriptive measure as well as multivariate technique-Varimax Rotated Factor Analysis. The study has found that the size of debt market of Bangladesh is very low as compared to other SAARC Countries; has huge growth potentiality; and identified important impediments to the growth and development of Bond Market in Bangladesh such as risk and return factor, liquidity and government policy factor, issue management factor, investment policy factor, macroeconomic and regulatory factor, and market & issue related factor. The study has suggested some important policy measures such as regulatory change, establishment of long-term yield curve, offering fiscal benefits, encouraging companies raising funds through corporate bond issues, keeping treasury rate low etc....
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...1999 * * * IT IS ILLEGAL TO REPRODUCE THIS ARTICLE IN ANY FORMAT * * *| t five years, the German Finance Association A is not very old as professional societies go, but then neither is the field of finance itself. Finance in its modern form really dates only from the 1950s. In the forty years since then, the field has come to surpass many, perhaps even most, of the more traditional fields of economics in terms of the numbers of students enrolled in finance courses, the numbers of faculty teaching finance courses, and above all in the quantity and quality of their combined schol-arly output. The huge body of scholarly research in finance over the last forty years falls naturally into two main streams. And no, I don’t mean “asset pricing” and “cor-porate finance,” but instead a deeper division that cuts across both. The division I have in mind is the more fundamental one between what I will call the business school approach to finance and the economics department approach. Let me say immediately, however, that my distinction is purely “notional,” not physical — a dis-tinction over what the field is really all about, not where the offices of the faculty happen to be located. In the United States, the vast majority of aca-demics in finance teach in business schools, not eco-nomics departments, and always have. At the same time, in the elite schools at least, a substantial fraction of the finance faculties have...
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...The Security Analysis Project What is this project? This project provides an opportunity to get some hands-on experience applying investment theory and models to real firms. In the process, participants will get a chance to: evaluate the risk profile of a firm and examine the sources of risk; analyze its capital structure and decide whether the firm is under- or over-leveraged; examine its dividend policy and decide whether the firm is under- or over-leveraged; and value the firm. How is the project structured? This is a project requiring by individual analysis and group synthesis. Each group should have at least 5 members but not to exceed 7. Each group will pick an industry to study. Each group member will pick a firm within this chosen industry to analyze. The companies chosen does not imply that they be competitors. For instance, a group can pick a company that manufactures personal computers, a company that produces software, and a company that provides computer services as part of the same group. Each person will be responsible for doing the entire analysis for the company that he or she has chosen. At the end of the process, the group will write one integrated report for all the firms in the group. In this report, the firms will be compared and contrasted and the results will be presented as a whole rather than as five separate parts. How will the project be graded? Each group will be graded on the final project and all of the presentations during...
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