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Caso Lufthansa

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¿Debe despedir el consejo de Lufthansa a Herr Heinz Ruhnau como presidente? ¿Cómo justificaría Ruhnau sus acciones y en consecuencia, como justificaría de no perder su trabajo?

Considero que el Consejo no debería despedir a Herr Ruhna ya que actuó de manera racional para no poner en riesgo el capital de los accionistas. No creo el hecho de que Herr Ruhnau actuó solamente por instinto, aunque el caso no lo menciona, lo más seguro es que el realizó los respectivos análisis sobre que era más conveniente para la empresa. Considero que el cómo CEO de Lufthansa tomó la decisión más adecuada por la incertidumbre que existía en relación al tipo de cambio, lo más adecuado fue cubrir el riesgo proporcionalmente.
Si bien es cierto que la proporción para la cobertura fue arbitraria, se intentó equilibrar el riesgo al 50% combinando una estrategia de cobertura con una estrategia especulativa, esperando resultados futuros. A pesar de la seguridad que el tenia no siguió irracionalmente sus proyecciones, ya que eran muy arriesgadas; lo cual no habría sido financieramente adecuado.

La opción de permanecer descubierto era muy arriesgada, si bien es cierto las ganancias pudieron haber sido muchas, también las perdidas pudieron ser catastróficas en caso de que el dólar no se hubiese desplomado.

Considero que al final las expectativas de Ruhnau fueron acertadas. El dólar cayó al año siguiente a DM2.3000/$ para enero de 1986. Lo más sorprendente fue la velocidad a la que se desplomo, por lo que el total del pago de Lufthansa a Boeing fue de 1.375 billones

Cobertura parcial del 50%: $ 250, 000,000 X DM3.2000/$ = DM 800, 000,000
Descubierto: $ 250,000,000 X DM2.3000/$ = DM575, 000,000
Total: DM 1, 375, 000,000.
En este caso yo personalmente me centraría en el ahorro que esto significo para Lufthansa y no en lo que pudo haber Ganado si hubiese dejado el cien por ciento al descubierto. Defendería los errores por los que se le acusa de la siguiente manera:

1. Comprar los aviones Boeing en el momento inoportuno. El dólar estadounidense estaba en un máximo histórico cuando se efectuó la compra en enero 1985.

La decisión de compra no se basó en un tema financiero sino en las necesidades del mercado ya que si se decide hacer una inversión tan grande es porque realmente era necesaria en aquel momento, el negocio de Lufthansa no se basaba en ganar en basa a los tipos de cambio a través de la especulación.

2. Elegir cubrir la mitad de la exposición si esperaba que el dólar cayese.

Si bien es cierto él tenía mucha confianza en que el dólar se desplomara, en esto siempre existen margen de error por lo que no era conveniente apostar o arriesgar el todo por el todo. Razón por la cual considero que eligió la cobertura parcial.

3. Elegir contratos a plazos como herramienta de cobertura en lugar de las opciones.

El hecho de elegir comprar opciones en divisas era muy riesgoso en el caso de que el tipo de cambio se mantenga a la alza como se venía observando desde antes de 1985 o que se mantuviera en el mismo nivel, ya que se tendría que con el pago de la prima de DM 96 millones hubiera generado un impacto importante en el flujo de caja y en los resultados financieros de la empresa.

4. Comprar aviones Boeing.

Probablemente al comprar Airbus no hubiese tenido el significativo ahorra de DM 225, 000, 000.

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