Australian crop report
Prepared by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

February 2014
No. 169

© Commonwealth of Australia 2014 Ownership of intellectual property rights Unless otherwise noted, copyright (and any other intellectual property rights, if any) in this publication is owned by the Commonwealth of Australia (referred to as the Commonwealth). Creative Commons licence All material in this publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence, save for content supplied by third parties, logos and the Commonwealth Coat of Arms.

Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence is a standard form licence agreement that allows you to copy, distribute, transmit and adapt this publication provided you attribute the work. A summary of the licence terms is available from creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/deed.en. The full licence terms are available from creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/legalcode. This publication (and any material sourced from it) should be attributed as ABARES 2014, Australian crop report, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra, February, CC BY 3.0. Cataloguing data ABARES 2014, Australian crop report, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra, February. ISSN 1447-8358 ISBN 978-1-74323-175-3 ABARES project 42072 Internet Australian crop report is available at daff.gov.au/abares/publications. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) Postal address GPO Box 1563 Canberra ACT 2601 Switchboard +61 2 6272 2010 Facsimile +61 2 6272 2001 Email info.abares@daff.gov.au Web daff.gov.au/abares Inquiries about the licence and any use of this document should be sent to copyright@daff.gov.au. The Australian Government acting through the Department of Agriculture represented by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, has exercised due care and skill in preparing and compiling the information and data in this publication. Notwithstanding, the Department of Agriculture, ABARES, its employees and advisers disclaim all liability, including liability for negligence, for any loss, damage, injury, expense or cost incurred by any person as a result of accessing, using or relying upon any of the information or data in this publication to the maximum extent permitted by law. The next issue of Australian crop report is scheduled to be released on 11 June 2014. In the next issue: 2013–14 summer crop area estimates and production forecasts updated 2014–15 winter crop area and production forecasts Acknowledgements This report was prepared by Benjamin Agbenyegah, Amelia Brown, Beth Deards, Dean Mansfield, Matthew Miller, David Mobsby and Christopher Price.

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Contents
Overview ............................................................................................................................................................ 2 Climatic and agronomic conditions ......................................................................................................... 4 Crop conditions and production forecasts, by state ...................................................................... 11 New South Wales ............................................................................................................................ 11 Queensland ....................................................................................................................................... 12 Victoria ............................................................................................................................................... 13 South Australia ................................................................................................................................ 14 Western Australia........................................................................................................................... 14

Tables
Table 1 Summer crop plantings and production, Australia ........................................................... 2 Table 2 Winter crop production, Australia........................................................................................... 3 Table 3 Winter crop area, Australia ........................................................................................................ 3 Table 4 Rainfall in major cropping districts...................................................................................... 10 Table 5 Winter crop estimates, New South Wales, 2013–14 ..................................................... 12 Table 6 Summer crop forecasts, New South Wales, 2013–14.................................................... 12 Table 7 Winter crop estimates, Queensland, 2013–14 ................................................................. 13 Table 8 Summer crop forecasts, Queensland, 2013–14 ............................................................... 13 Table 9 Winter crop estimates, Victoria, 2013–14 ......................................................................... 14 Table 10 Winter crop estimates, South Australia, 2013–14 ....................................................... 14 Table 11 Winter crop estimates, Western Australia, 2013–14 ................................................. 15 Table 12 Australian crop production................................................................................................... 16 Table 13 State production, major crops ............................................................................................. 17 Table 14 State production, other crops .............................................................................................. 18 Table 15 Australian supply and disposal of wheat, oilseeds and pulses ............................... 19 Table 16 Australian supply and disposal of coarse grains .......................................................... 20 Table 17 Grains and oilseeds prices ..................................................................................................... 21

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Maps
Map 1 Australian wheat growing regions ............................................................................................. 1 Map 2 Australian rainfall districts ........................................................................................................... 1 Map 3 Australian rainfall percentiles, 1 November 2013 to 31 January 2014 ....................... 4 Map 4 Australian rainfall percentiles, January 2014 ........................................................................ 5 Map 5 Maximum temperature anomalies, January 2014 ............................................................... 5 Map 6 Maximum temperature anomalies, 29 December 2013 to 4 January 2014 ............... 6 Map 7 Rainfall outlook, February to April 2014 ................................................................................. 6 Map 8 Upper layer soil moisture, January 2014 ................................................................................. 7 Map 9 Lower layer soil moisture, January 2014 ................................................................................ 8 Map 10 Forecast median shire sorghum yield ranked relative to all years (%) .................... 9

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Map 1 Australian wheat growing regions

Source: ABARES

Map 2 Australian rainfall districts

Note: Displayed for major cropping districts only. See Table 1 for district names and observed district rainfall. Source: Bureau of Meteorology

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Overview
Generally unfavourable seasonal conditions during the 2013–14 summer crop planting window are expected to result in a significant decline in summer crop production. There have been hot and dry seasonal conditions over the few past months in most summer cropping regions in northern New South Wales and Queensland. The unfavourable seasonal conditions have limited the area planted to summer crops and reduced prospective yields of dryland crops. However, patchy rainfall in late January across the Liverpool Plains and the Darling Downs is expected to benefit development of later sown crops in these two regions. Additionally, recent rainfall in central Queensland is expected to encourage some further planting of summer crops in that region and support development of crops already in the ground. The seasonal outlook for February to April 2014, issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 13 January 2014, points to a roughly equal chance of receiving more or less than median rainfall across the summer cropping regions of northern New South Wales and Queensland. The total area planted to summer crops is forecast to fall by 15 per cent in 2013–14 to 1.15 million hectares and total production is forecast to fall by 25 per cent to 4 million tonnes. Falls in production are forecast for all major summer crops. The area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to decline by 17 per cent in 2013–14 to 492 000 hectares and production is forecast to decline by 36 per cent to 1.3 million tonnes. The area planted to cotton (planted from September to mid-November) is estimated to have declined by 11 per cent in 2013–14 to 392 000 hectares, largely reflecting a fall in the area planted to dryland cotton. However, because higher yielding irrigated cotton comprises a larger proportion of the total area planted to cotton than last year, it is assumed the average yield will rise by 4 per cent. Cotton production is forecast to fall by 8 per cent to 1.3 million tonnes of cottonseed and 940 000 tonnes of cotton lint. The area planted to rice is forecast to fall by 11 per cent in 2013–14 to 101 000 hectares. Rice production is forecast to decline by 22 per cent to 907 000 tonnes, assuming a return to average yields from the above average yields achieved in 2012–13.

Table 1 Summer crop plantings and production, Australia
Year 2002–03 2003–04 2004–05 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 f % change 2012–13 to 2013–14 New South Wales ’000 ha kt 518 1 575 457 1 776 524 2 020 776 2 791 338 1 037 398 1 668 402 1 430 381 1 405 713 2 514 769 3 101 667 3 108 564 2 382 –15 –23 Queensland ’000 ha 541 765 812 645 545 791 746 514 790 792 677 573 –15 kt 1 231 1 867 1 842 1 516 1 099 2 877 2 350 1 342 1 901 2 394 2 162 1 585 –27 Australia ’000 ha 1 075 1 231 1 342 1 433 918 1 199 1 156 903 1 514 1 578 1 358 1 149 –15 kt 2 835 3 664 3 878 4 352 2 166 4 567 3 794 2 764 4 446 5 546 5 309 4 001 –25

f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Includes ABS preliminary estimates for grain sorghum. Note: State production includes cottonseed, grain sorghum, maize, mung beans, rice, peanuts, soybeans and sunflower. Total for Australia also includes navy beans and small areas and volumes of summer crops in other states. Summer crop production figures include northern wet season rice and northern dry season cotton and rice.

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Total winter crop production is estimated to have increased by 17 per cent in 2013–14 to 44 million tonnes, the second largest winter crop on record. However, there are significant regional variations in winter crop production. Winter crop production in Western Australia, the largest producing state, is estimated to have increased by 55 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 17.2 million tonnes, reflecting favourable spring growing conditions in the central and southern parts of the state. In South Australia, winter crop production is estimated to have increased by 31 per cent to around 8.6 million tonnes, the third highest level of production on record. Victorian winter crop production is estimated to have risen by 2 per cent to 7.1 million tonnes. In contrast, winter crop production is estimated to have declined by 14 per cent to 9.3 million tonnes in New South Wales and by 20 per cent to around 1.6 million tonnes in Queensland. For the major winter crops, wheat production is estimated to have increased by 20 per cent to 27 million tonnes and barley production is estimated to have increased by 28 per cent to 9.5 million tonnes. Although canola production is estimated to have declined by 12 per cent to 3.5 million tonnes, this remains the second largest canola crop on record.

Table 2 Winter crop production, Australia
Year New South Wales kt 10 797 10 715 11 984 3 796 4 001 9 441 7 789 14 786 11 955 10 865 9 344 –14 Victoria kt 6 965 4 219 6 271 1 751 4 695 3 890 5 892 7 629 7 348 6 997 7 138 2 Queensland kt 1 451 1 392 1 435 925 1 195 2 327 1 618 1 822 2 330 2 058 1 645 –20 South Australia kt 7 360 5 298 7 518 2 793 4 706 4 864 7 036 9 317 7 368 6 573 8 602 31 Western Australia kt 16 677 12 979 13 946 8 279 10 762 13 786 12 944 8 045 16 599 11 088 17 162 55 Australia kt 43 324 34 681 41 236 17 588 25 423 34 386 35 352 41 681 45 666 37 646 43 956 17

2003–04 2004–05 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 s % change 2012–13 to 2013–14

s ABARES estimate. For 2012–13, includes ABS preliminary estimates for barley, canola, oats and wheat. Note: Includes barley, canola, chickpeas, faba beans, field peas, lentils, linseed, lupins, oats, safflower, triticale and wheat.

Table 3 Winter crop area, Australia
Year New South Wales ’000 ha 6 104 6 441 5 595 5 673 6 314 6 296 6 108 6 159 5 968 5 709 5 719 0 Victoria ’000 ha 3 141 3 195 2 972 3 085 3 378 3 494 3 491 3 460 3 408 3 502 3 440 –2 Queensland ’000 ha 1 034 861 969 810 876 1 212 1 176 1 220 1 208 1 194 1 125 –6 South Australia ’000 ha 3 966 3 965 3 868 4 141 4 131 3 979 3 783 3 821 3 840 3 797 3 975 5 Western Australia ’000 ha 7 683 7 933 7 408 6 478 7 266 7 900 8 272 7 716 8 251 8 024 8 209 2 Australia ’000 ha 21 953 22 417 20 837 20 215 21 988 22 909 22 853 22 401 22 693 22 244 22 486 1

2003–04 2004–05 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 s 2013–14 s % change 2012–13 to 2013–14

s ABARES estimate. For 2012–13, includes ABS preliminary estimates for barley, canola, oats and wheat. Note: Includes barley, canola, chickpeas, faba beans, field peas, lentils, linseed, lupins, oats, safflower, triticale and wheat.

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Climatic and agronomic conditions
During November 2013 to January 2014, rainfall was highly variable ranging from severely deficient in parts of southern Queensland and northern New South Wales to average in northern cropping areas of Queensland and across parts of southern Australia. (Map 3).

Map 3 Australian rainfall percentiles, 1 November 2013 to 31 January 2014

Note: Rainfall percentiles are displayed for cropping regions only. Source: Bureau of Meteorology

During November 2013, average rainfall was recorded in most cropping regions in Queensland and northern New South Wales, while remaining cropping regions in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia generally recorded below average falls. December 2013 rainfall was generally average for most cropping regions across southern Australia, with northern New South Wales and Queensland cropping areas receiving well below average falls. In January 2014 rainfall for cropping regions across Australia was predominantly average, with the exception of some cropping regions across northern New South Wales and Queensland where there were severe rainfall deficiencies (Map 4).

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Map 4 Australian rainfall percentiles, January 2014

Note: Rainfall percentiles are displayed for cropping regions only. Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Maximum temperature anomalies, ranging from 1 °C to 4 °C above normal, were recorded in summer cropping regions across southern Queensland and northern New South Wales in January 2014 (Map 5).

Map 5 Maximum temperature anomalies, January 2014

Note: Temperature anomalies are displayed for cropping regions only. Source: Bureau of Meteorology

During the height of the heatwave that affected much of Australia at the end of 2013 and the beginning of 2014, maximum temperature anomalies were much higher. From 29 December 2013 to 4 January 2014, northern New South Wales and Queensland had maximum temperature anomalies up to 10 °C above normal (Map 6).

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Map 6 Maximum temperature anomalies, 29 December 2013 to 4 January 2014

Note: Temperature anomalies are displayed for cropping regions only. Source: Bureau of Meteorology

The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest seasonal rainfall outlook (February to April 2014) indicates a slightly increased chance of drier than normal conditions across cropping areas in central and southern New South Wales and Victoria where chances of exceeding the median rainfall are between 35 per cent and 55 per cent. Chances of a wetter or drier than normal season are roughly equal over the cropping zones of northern New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia. In Western Australia, the chances of wetter than normal conditions across the cropping regions are between 55 per cent and 65 per cent (Map 7).

Map 7 Rainfall outlook, February to April 2014

Note: Rainfall outlook is displayed for cropping regions only. Source: Bureau of Meteorology

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The outlook for temperatures from February to April 2014 indicates a slightly higher chance of warmer than average daytime temperatures over most of New South Wales with no indication either way over the rest of the cropping zone. Warmer night-time temperatures are more likely in all cropping regions. Relative levels of modelled upper layer soil moisture (~0.2 metres) and lower layer soil moisture (~0.2 to ~1.5 metres) for the cropping region across Australia at the end of January 2014 are shown in maps 8 and 9, respectively. The soil moisture estimates are relative to the long-term record and ranked in percentiles. The 90th to 100th percentiles in maps 8 and 9 indicate where the estimated soil moisture level for January 2014 falls into the 10 wettest months, relative to estimated soil moisture levels for that month averaged over a 100-year period. The areas of 0th to 10th percentiles indicate where the estimated soil moisture levels for January 2014 fell into the 10 driest months, relative to estimated soil moisture levels for that month averaged over a 100-year period. These data are sourced from a collaborative project between the Bureau of Meteorology, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and ABARES to develop estimates of soil moisture and other components of water balance at high resolution across Australia. Upper layer soil moisture responds quickly to seasonal conditions and will often show a pattern that reflects rainfall and temperature events of the same month. Lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond and tends to reflect the accumulated effects of events that have occurred over longer periods of time. Relative upper layer soil moisture at the end of January 2014 (Map 8) for the wheat–sheep zone is predominantly extremely low to below average. Relative upper layer soil moisture across summer cropping regions in Queensland and northern New South Wales was predominately well below average to extremely low. This pattern of relative upper layer soil moisture reflects rainfall received to date during the 2013–14 summer.

Map 8 Upper layer soil moisture, January 2014

Note: Relative upper layer soil moisture is displayed for cropping regions only. Source: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO)

Relative soil moisture in the lower layer at the end of January 2014 was largely average to well below average in Queensland and northern New South Wales cropping regions (Map 9). 7

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Southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia show variable relative soil moisture, although levels tend to the average. While deficiencies remain in lower layer soil moisture in Western Australia, recent rainfall should result in improvements in coming months.

Map 9 Lower layer soil moisture, January 2014

Note: Relative lower layer soil moisture is displayed for cropping regions only. Source: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO)

Map 10 presents the shire-scale forecasts of grain sorghum yields obtained from the University of Queensland’s Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation. These forecasts combine information on starting soil moisture conditions and the seasonal outlook, including the most recent trend in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). At the beginning of February 2014, forecast median grain sorghum yields were generally below average, ranging from the 20th and 50th percentile, across far northern summer cropping regions of Queensland. For the majority of central and southern cropping regions in Queensland and northern New South Wales forecast median grain sorghum yields were generally extremely low, ranging from lowest on record to the 30th percentile. This pattern reflects rainfall received during spring 2013 and 2013–14 summer-to-date.

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Map 10 Forecast median shire sorghum yield ranked relative to all years (%)

Source: Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation

Forecast median shire yield ranked relative to all years (%), given the SOI phase was rapidly rising for the December to January period.

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Table 4 Rainfall in major cropping districts
District District number Nov. median mm 38 51 64 66 83 30 33 52 41 61 62 22 29 48 74 19 25 27 33 24 33 66 55 48 54 54 54 50 59 79 28 21 21 32 20 24 17 18 6 16 9 16 13 Nov. 2013 mm 29 52 79 98 120 12 9 29 32 49 72 14 22 37 47 7 7 9 16 12 23 29 43 34 60 82 68 66 75 95 8 5 5 14 13 4 3 22 2 6 5 7 24 Nov. 2013 rank 13 11 12 21 10 44 33 32 44 26 28 56 58 20 36 62 34 12 10 61 49 54 37 9 28 20 5 13 15 25 13 39 45 42 40 51 52 43 28 6 20 27 79 Dec. median mm 47 63 78 75 97 35 41 47 45 57 66 24 31 44 67 17 19 20 27 20 27 62 51 37 44 77 61 70 81 109 22 17 16 24 16 20 18 13 5 8 7 10 17 Dec. 2013 mm 11 15 25 34 35 23 19 29 36 33 37 29 37 20 57 25 14 7 13 32 32 72 46 23 39 28 11 19 29 50 10 17 19 24 17 25 18 15 3 3 3 9 22 Dec. 2013 rank 7 6 7 15 4 34 20 21 39 23 25 55 61 26 42 67 36 17 17 65 59 58 46 25 40 10 1 4 6 10 19 50 58 50 53 65 50 55 29 24 27 50 63 Jan. median mm 49 61 78 71 97 33 41 60 45 59 74 18 22 35 54 12 13 14 19 20 25 43 36 28 30 89 62 65 67 118 15 12 13 16 9 13 12 8 6 4 8 8 13 Jan. 2014 mm 11 22 28 8 31 37 20 30 51 22 21 19 20 17 42 5 9 10 20 9 17 43 19 20 23 45 24 27 33 57 15 6 6 12 6 8 13 21 6 3 14 2 95 Jan. 2014 rank 4 10 4 0 4 55 24 21 58 13 8 55 46 21 33 25 36 36 51 27 35 49 18 30 35 19 8 6 7 9 51 30 31 38 33 34 56 82 51 37 70 18 98

New South Wales N W Plains (W) N W Plains (E) N W Slopes (N) N W Slopes (S) N Tablelands (N) C W Plains (S) C W Plains (N) C W Slopes (N) C W Slopes (S) C Tablelands (N) C Tablelands (S) Riverina (W) Riverina (E) S W Slopes (N) S W Slopes (S) Victoria N Mallee S Mallee N Wimmera S Wimmera Lower North Upper North Lower North East North Central Western Plains West Coast Queensland Central Highlands Maranoa W Darling Downs E Darling Downs Moreton S Coast South Australia Upper South East Murray Mallee Murray River East Central Yorke Peninsula Lower North Upper North Western Agricultural Western Australia North Coast Central Coast Northern Central South Central South East

52 53 54 55 56 50 51 64 65 62 63 75 74 73 72 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 88 89 90 35 43 42 41 40 25B 25A 24 23 22A 21 19 18 8 9 10 10A 12

Note: Percentile ranks are interpreted as the ranking between zero and 100 of current rainfall compared with historical rainfall. Zero is the lowest rainfall, 100 is the highest rainfall. Australian rainfall districts are shown in Map 2. Source: Bureau of Meteorology monthly district rainfall reports

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Crop conditions and production forecasts, by state
New South Wales
Prolonged hot and dry conditions across key summer crop regions in New South Wales have limited the area sown to summer crops and reduced prospective yields. There were significant rainfall deficiencies between November and January and record heatwave conditions in early January. The unfavourable seasonal conditions reduced soil moisture levels and placed crops under moisture stress in December and January. Patchy rainfall across the Liverpool Plains in late December provided some relief and enabled some further sowing of summer crops. Rainfall in late January was too late to improve prospective yields of earlier sown crops that were stressed by the heatwave conditions but will benefit development of crops sown in late December. However, further widespread rainfall is required for yield prospects to improve. The area planted to summer crops in New South Wales is forecast to decrease by around 15 per cent in 2013–14 to 564 000 hectares and summer crop production is forecast to decrease by around 23 per cent to 2.4 million tonnes. Production of all major summer crops is expected to fall. The area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to decrease by around 23 per cent in 2013–14 to 140 000 hectares. Most of the planted area is on the southern Liverpool Plains, which had a reasonable start to the season. Other key growing regions had a much drier start and the planted area in these regions is well below average, particularly around Gunnedah and west of Moree. Yields are expected to be below average, particularly for early sown crops, and grain sorghum production is forecast to fall by 42 per cent in 2013–14 to 364 000 tonnes. The area planted to cotton is estimated to have declined by 10 per cent in 2013–14 to 256 000 hectares. However, the average yield is assumed to rise by 2 per cent because irrigated cotton comprises a higher proportion of the area planted to cotton than last year. Cotton production is forecast to fall by 8 per cent to 878 000 tonnes of cottonseed and 621 000 tonnes of cotton lint. The area planted to rice is forecast to fall by 12 per cent in 2013–14 to 100 000 hectares. Rice production is forecast to decline by 22 per cent to 900 000 tonnes, assuming a return to average yields from the above average yields achieved last year. Total winter crop production in New South Wales is estimated to have declined by 14 per cent in 2013–14 to 9.3 million tonnes. The total area planted to winter crops was largely unchanged from the previous season at around 5.7 million hectares. Wheat production is estimated to have fallen by 7 per cent in 2013–14 to around 6.6 million tonnes, reflecting a decrease in the average yield. The area planted to wheat in New South Wales increased by 13 per cent to around 3.8 million hectares. Barley production is estimated to have decreased by 11 per cent in 2013–14 to just under 1.2 million tonnes. The area planted to barley rose by 9 per cent to 670 000 hectares. Canola production is estimated to have decreased by 48 per cent in 2013–14 to 688 000 tonnes, reflecting declines in the planted area and the average yield. A combination of record high temperatures, below average spring rainfall, gusty winds and severe frosts reduced yields across many canola growing regions. The area planted to canola fell by 41 per cent in 2013–14 to 550 000 hectares, reflecting low levels of soil moisture at planting time.

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Table 5 Winter crop estimates, New South Wales, 2013–14
Crop Area ’000 ha 3 800 670 550 Yield t/ha 1.74 1.76 1.25 Production kt 6 612 1 179 688 Area change from 2012–13 % 13 9 –41 Production change from 2012–13 % –7 –11 –48

Wheat Barley Canola

Note: Yields are based on areas planted.

Table 6 Summer crop forecasts, New South Wales, 2013–14
Crop Area ’000 ha 140 256 256 100 Yield t/ha 2.60 2.42 3.43 9.00 Production kt 364 621 878 900 Area change from 2012–13 % –23 –10 –10 –12 Production change from 2012–13 % –42 –8 –8 –22

Grain sorghum Cotton lint Cottonseed Rice
Note: Yields are based on areas planted.

Queensland
Most summer cropping regions in Queensland received below to very much below average rainfall during the key planting window from November 2013 to January 2014. Record high temperatures during the first three weeks of January also limited the planted area and reduced prospective yields. Rainfall in late January across the Darling Downs, although patchy, was received just in time for many later planted crops that were moisture stressed. However, the rainfall was too late to boost yield prospects of early sown crops that had suffered moisture stress for much of December and early January. Rainfall in late January and early February in central Queensland was more significant and will enable additional area to be planted to grain sorghum and improve yield prospects. The area planted to summer crops in Queensland is forecast to decrease by 15 per cent in 2013–14 to around 573 000 hectares and total summer crop production is forecast to fall by 27 per cent to 1.6 million tonnes. The area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to fall by 14 per cent in 2013–14 to 350 000 hectares and grain sorghum production is forecast to fall by 33 per cent to 910 000 tonnes. The area planted to cotton is estimated to have declined by 14 per cent in 2013–14 to 136 000 hectares. However, the average yield is assumed to rise by 8 per cent because irrigated cotton comprises a higher proportion of the total area planted to cotton than last year. A negligible amount of dryland cotton was planted because of dry seasonal conditions and high temperatures during the planting window. Cotton production is forecast to decline by 8 per cent in 2013–14 to around 452 000 tonnes of cottonseed and 320 000 tonnes of cotton lint. Total winter crop production in Queensland is estimated to have fallen by 20 per cent in 2013– 14 to around 1.6 million tonnes. The total area sown to winter crops decreased by around 6 per cent to 1.1 million hectares. Wheat production is estimated to have decreased by 21 per cent in 2013–14 to1.2 million tonnes. The area planted to wheat fell by 6 per cent to 800 000 hectares. Queensland barley production is estimated to have fallen by around 15 per cent in 2013–14 to 138 000 tonnes. The area sown to barley increased by 2 per cent to 90 000 hectares.

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Total chickpea production is estimated to have decreased by 17 per cent in 2013–14 to 296 000 tonnes. The area planted to chickpeas decreased marginally to around 216 000 hectares.

Table 7 Winter crop estimates, Queensland, 2013–14
Crop Area ’000 ha 800 90 216 Yield t/ha 1.50 1.53 1.37 Production kt 1 200 138 296 Area change from 2012–13 % –6 2 –1 Production change from 2012–13 % –21 –15 –17

Wheat Barley Chickpeas
Note: Yields are based on area planted.

Table 8 Summer crop forecasts, Queensland, 2013–14
Crop Area ’000 ha 350 136 136 Yield t/ha 2.60 2.35 3.32 Production kt 910 320 452 Area change from 2012–13 % –14 –14 –14 Production change from 2012–13 % –33 –8 –8

Grain sorghum Cotton lint Cottonseed
Note: Yields are based on area planted.

Victoria
Seasonal conditions were generally drier and warmer than average over most key winter cropping areas in Victoria but with significant regional variation. For the Mallee, early spring rainfall was timely but a warm and dry finish to the season reduced yields. In contrast, seasonal conditions in the Western District and much of the Wimmera were more favourable, and yields were above average. The North Central region and parts of the Wimmera were adversely affected by frost events in October but any adverse effects on crops were highly variable. Total winter crop production in Victoria is estimated to have increased by 2 per cent in 2013– 14 to around 7.1 million tonnes. The total area sown to winter crops declined by 2 per cent to around 3.4 million hectares. Wheat production is estimated to have increased by 2 per cent in 2013–14 to around 3.5 million tonnes, largely reflecting an increase in planted area. The average yield across Victoria is estimated to have been largely unchanged from the previous season but there was significant regional variation. Quality was generally good across the state but cases of pinched and frosted grains were reported in the North Central region and parts of the Wimmera. Barley production is estimated to have increased by 12 per cent in 2013–14 to around 2.2 million tonnes, with an estimated 8 per cent increase in planted area to 915 000 hectares. The average yield across Victoria is estimated to have increased by 3 per cent. Quality was mixed in the Wimmera but was generally good in the Western District. Canola production is estimated to have fallen by 33 per cent in 2013–14 to around 618 000 tonnes, largely the result of a 31 per cent decline in planted area. The average yield is estimated to have fallen by 3 per cent, albeit with great variation among regions. Quality was also highly variable but was generally good for canola that was not affected by frost.

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Table 9 Winter crop estimates, Victoria, 2013–14
Crop Area ’000 ha 1 610 915 434 Yield t/ha 2.20 2.38 1.42 Production kt 3 541 2 178 618 Area change from 2012–13 % 2 8 –31 Production change from 2012–13 % 2 12 –33

Wheat Barley Canola
Note: Yields are based on area planted.

South Australia
Crop yields in South Australia are estimated to have been above average, despite relatively unfavourable conditions during much of spring and summer. This is largely the result of favourable conditions over winter that put crops in good condition at the start of spring and replenished lower layer soil moisture levels. Harvesting of winter crops was finished early in some regions at the beginning of December. By contrast, harvest in the Lower South East was delayed by below average temperatures during November and did not begin until mid December. Intermittent rain in December delayed harvest in some other regions, but was largely completed by the end of January. Winter crop production in South Australia is estimated to have risen by 31 per cent in 2013–14 to 8.6 million tonnes, reflecting a significant increase in the average yield of all three major crops. The area planted increased by 5 per cent to almost 4 million hectares. Wheat production is estimated to have risen by 38 per cent in 2013–14 to 5.1 million tonnes. The average wheat yield is estimated to have increased by 27 per cent and the area planted rose by 9 per cent. Wheat screenings were higher than usual in some regions, largely a result of the hot and dry finish to the season. Protein levels were below average. Barley production is estimated to have increased by 24 per cent in 2013–14 to 2.2 million tonnes. Despite barley being the crop most affected by strong winds in October, the average yield across the state is estimated to have increased by 15 per cent. Canola production is estimated to have increased by 2 per cent in 2013–14 to 442 000 tonnes, reflecting an estimated 24 per cent increase in the average yield. The area planted to canola declined by 18 per cent. Oil content of the canola seeds was generally above average.

Table 10 Winter crop estimates, South Australia, 2013–14
Crop Area ’000 ha 2 279 925 285 Yield t/ha 2.25 2.40 1.55 Production kt 5 128 2 225 442 Area change from 2012–13 % 9 8 –18 Production change from 2012–13 % 38 24 2

Wheat Barley Canola
Note: Yields are based on area planted.

Western Australia
Western Australia had a favourable finish to the 2013–14 winter cropping season, especially in the central and southern regions of the grains belt. However, crops in the northern and eastern regions were too advanced to benefit significantly from the favourable finish and yields in these regions are estimated to have been below average. Harvesting of the 2013–14 winter crops began in early October and progressed rapidly, aided by favourable harvesting conditions.

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Total winter crop production in Western Australia is estimated to have risen by 55 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 17.2 million tonnes. The average yield across the state for each of the major crops is estimated to be well above average. However, protein levels for grains are estimated to be below average. Wheat production is estimated to have increased by 58 per cent in 2013–14 to around 10.5 million tonnes. The average yield across the state is estimated to be well above average at 2.1 tonnes a hectare. Barley production is estimated to have risen by 72 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 3.8 million tonnes. While the average yield across the state is estimated to have been a record, lower than average selection rates for malting barley are expected. Canola production is estimated to have risen by 37 per cent in 2013–14 to a record 1.8 million tonnes. Despite variable growing conditions over the season, the quality of the crop is generally excellent. Lupins production is estimated to have risen by 56 per cent in 2013–14 to 461 000 tonnes. An estimated 92 per cent increase in the average yield offset the effect of a 19 per cent fall in the planted area.

Table 11 Winter crop estimates, Western Australia, 2013–14
Crop Area ’000 ha 5 015 1 350 1 297 246 Yield t/ha 2.09 2.81 1.39 1.88 Production kt 10 500 3 800 1 800 461 Area change from 2012–13 % 3 12 1 –19 Production change from 2012–13 % 58 72 37 56

Wheat Barley Canola Lupins
Note: Yields are based on area planted.

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Australian crop report February 2014

ABARES

Table 12 Australian crop production
Crop average a ’000 ha Winter crops Wheat Barley Canola Chickpeas Faba beans Field peas Lentils Lupins Oats Triticale Summer crops Grain sorghum Cottonseed b Cotton lint b Rice (paddy) Corn (maize) Sunflower 13 518 4 092 2 226 490 154 286 155 633 795 253 630 401 401 64 67 37 Area planted 2011–12 2012–13 s ’000 ha ’000 ha 13 902 3 718 2 461 456 151 249 173 689 731 145 659 600 600 103 70 40 12 773 3 622 3 203 574 203 281 164 450 699 258 595 442 442 114 81 30 2013–14 f ’000 ha 13 512 3 957 2 567 507 152 245 168 387 744 230 492 392 392 101 58 27 average a t/ha 1.82 1.96 1.20 1.22 1.68 1.16 1.29 1.19 1.48 1.64 3.27 2.75 1.95 9.51 5.94 1.28 Yield t/ha 2011–12 2012–13 s t/ha t/ha 2.15 2.21 1.39 1.48 1.77 1.38 1.67 1.42 1.73 1.97 3.40 2.89 2.04 8.91 6.47 1.17 1.76 2.06 1.25 1.42 1.86 1.14 1.12 1.02 1.60 1.66 3.37 3.25 2.30 10.24 6.13 1.46 2013–14 f t/ha 2.00 2.41 1.38 1.24 2.15 1.40 1.50 1.62 1.69 1.74 2.60 3.39 2.40 8.98 5.78 1.18 average a kt 24 606 7 909 2 709 586 264 330 212 756 1 165 395 2 076 1 090 777 613 401 46 Production kt 2011–12 2012–13 s kt kt 29 905 8 221 3 427 673 268 342 288 982 1 262 285 2 239 1 732 1 225 919 451 47 22 461 7 466 4 010 813 377 320 184 459 1 115 429 2 005 1 438 1 017 1 166 496 44 2013–14 f kt 27 013 9 545 3 548 629 328 342 253 625 1 259 400 1 278 1 330 940 907 335 32

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a Five-year average to 2012–13. b Cotton area is estimated harvested area. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Includes ABS preliminary estimates for barley, canola, grain sorghum, oats and wheat. Note: The crop year refers to crops planted during the 12 months to 31 March. Slight discrepancies may appear between tables as a result of including the Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory in the Australian totals. Rice, cottonseed and cotton lint include northern dry and wet season crops. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Pulse Australia

Australian crop report February 2014

ABARES

Table 13 State production, major crops
Crop

Winter Crops Wheat
2013–14 s 2012–13 s 2011–12 Five-year average to 2012–13

New South Wales area prod. '000 ha kt 3 800 3 367 3 868 3 871 670 616 673 819 550 937 729 548 57 58 79 82 250 233 236 274 6 612 7 081 8 473 7 671 1 179 1 331 1 425 1 527 688 1 335 1 092 748 57 63 84 104 250 258 258 291

Victoria area prod. '000 ha kt 1 610 1 577 1 669 1 675 915 844 831 918 434 628 477 389 28 29 46 38 150 113 131 154 3 541 3 460 3 943 3 313 2 178 1 951 2 005 1 845 618 922 689 530 29 26 42 37 315 232 234 248

Queensland area prod. '000 ha kt 800 851 953 938 90 88 80 84 1 1 1 2 0 0 1 0 15 33 18 17 1 200 1 528 1 886 1 660 138 162 191 157 0 1 1 2 0 0 1 0 8 9 23 11

South Australia area prod. '000 ha kt 2 279 2 096 2 249 2 182 925 860 881 955 285 349 283 243 56 61 63 59 86 60 55 76 5 128 3 715 4 525 4 113 2 225 1 791 1 816 1 935 442 435 413 334 78 74 73 73 160 85 78 103

Western Australia area prod. '000 ha kt 5 015 4 875 5 156 4 844 1 350 1 210 1 246 1 307 1 297 1 287 969 1 043 246 303 501 454 240 257 288 272 10 500 6 645 11 045 7 817 3 800 2 214 2 761 2 417 1 800 1 316 1 232 1 094 461 295 782 541 520 523 662 506

Tasmania area prod. '000 ha kt 8 6 7 7 7 5 6 8 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 3 4 3 4 32 31 32 31 25 16 23 27 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 6 7 8 7

Barley
2013–14 s 2012–13 s 2011–12 Five-year average to 2012–13

Canola
2013–14 s 2012–13 s 2011–12 Five-year average to 2012–13

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Lupins
2013–14 s 2012–13 s 2011–12 Five-year average to 2012–13

Oats
2013–14 s 2012–13 s 2011–12 Five-year average to 2012–13

Summer crops Grain sorghum
2013–14 f 2012–13 s 2011–12 Five-year average to 2012–13 Cottonseed a 2013–14 f 2012–13 s 2011–12 Five-year average to 2012–13 140 183 221 198 256 284 358 240 364 632 814 739 878 949 1 065 687 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 350 409 436 430 136 159 241 161 910 1 366 1 416 1 332 452 489 665 403 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 2 2 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

a Cottonseed area is estimated harvested area. Includes northern dry season crop. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Includes ABS preliminary estimates for barley, canola, grain sorghum, oats and wheat. Note: Zero area or production estimates may appear as a result of rounding to the nearest whole number, if production or area estimates are less than 500 tonnes or 500 hectares. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Australian crop report February 2014

ABARES

Table 14 State production, other crops
Crop New South Wales area prod. ’000 ha kt Victoria area ’000 ha prod. kt Queensland area prod. ’000 ha kt South Australia area prod. ’000 ha kt Western Australia area prod. ’000 ha kt Other a area ’000 ha prod. kt

Winter crops Chickpeas 2013–14 s 2012–13 s 2011–12 Five-year average to 2012–13 Faba beans 2013–14 s 2012–13 s 2011–12 Five-year average to 2012–13 Field peas 2013–14 s 2012–13 s 2011–12 Five-year average to 2012–13 Lentils 2013–14 s 2012–13 s 2011–12 Five-year average to 2012–13 Summer crops Corn (maize) 2013–14 s 2012–13 s 2011–12 Five-year average to 2012–13 Sunflower 2013–14 f 2012–13 s 2011–12 Five-year average to 2012–13 Rice b 2013–14 f 2012–13 s 2011–12 Five-year average to 2012–13

220 280 244 276 29 54 43 41 50 53 41 39 1 1 1 0

251 379 361 329 71 123 67 71 53 66 62 41 1 1 1 0

48 49 48 43 59 67 49 47 51 52 38 58 79 77 77 78

50 52 72 43 127 126 99 78 68 65 60 66 112 80 125 87

216 218 149 155 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

296 357 221 198 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

19 20 11 11 61 78 55 62 112 114 110 117 89 87 95 77

27 22 14 13 121 122 95 109 184 130 150 155 141 103 162 124

5 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 32 62 60 73 0 0 0 0

6 4 6 4 9 6 4 4 37 59 71 69 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

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20 30 21 22 18 19 20 23 100 113 102 63

166 261 207 185 23 30 25 31 900 1 160 912 609

2 2 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0

12 15 21 11 1 2 0 0 2 3 6 2

35 48 43 43 8 10 20 13 1 0 0 0

151 216 217 201 8 12 22 15 4 3 0 1

0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7 4 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

a Refers to Northern Territory for rice. For all other crops, refers to Tasmania. b Paddy. Includes northern dry season and wet season crops. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Note: Zero area or production estimates may appear as a result of rounding to the nearest whole number, if production or area estimates are less than 500 tonnes or 500 hectares. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Pulse Australia

Australian crop report February 2014

ABARES

Table 15 Australian supply and disposal of wheat, oilseeds and pulses
Crop Wheat Production Apparent domestic use – seed – other a Exports b Imports b Canola Production Apparent domestic use a Exports Pulses Production – lupins – field peas – chickpeas Apparent domestic use a – lupins – field peas – chickpeas Exports – lupins – field peas – chickpeas 2007–08 kt 13 569 6 517 677 5 841 7 444 6 1 214 743 472 2008–09 kt 21 420 7 306 694 6 612 14 707 12 1 844 778 1 067 2009–10 kt 21 834 4 999 675 4 324 14 791 15 1 907 721 1 187 2010–11 kt 27 410 5 663 695 4 968 18 584 12 2 359 810 1 549 2011–12 kt 29 905 6 334 639 5 695 24 656 14 3 427 871 2 557 2012–13 s kt 22 461 6 335 676 5 659 18 644 17 4 010 499 3 512

662 268 313 585 129 87 77 141 222

708 238 443 404 104 1 304 137 506

823 356 487 470 196 1 353 162 492

808 395 513 621 95 39 186 302 461

982 342 673 416 130 93 565 215 598

459 320 813 304 145 1 155 177 816

a In principle, calculated as a residual: production plus imports less exports less any observed or assumed change in stocks and, for wheat only, less seed use. b Includes grain and grain equivalent of wheat flour. s ABARES estimate. Includes ABS preliminary production estimates for canola and wheat. Note: Production, use, trade and stock data are on a marketing year basis: October–September for wheat; November–October for canola, peas and lupins. Production may not equal the sum of apparent domestic use and exports in any one year because of reductions or increases in stocks. The export data refer to marketing year export periods, so are not comparable with financial year export figures published elsewhere. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Pulse Australia

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Australian crop report February 2014

ABARES

Table 16 Australian supply and disposal of coarse grains
Crop Barley Production Apparent domestic use – seed – other a Export – feed barley – malting barley – malt (grain equivalent) Oats Production Apparent domestic use – seed – other a Export Triticale Production Apparent domestic use – seed – other a Grain sorghum Production Apparent domestic use – seed – other a Export b Corn (maize) Production Apparent domestic use – seed – other a Export b Total coarse grains Production Apparent domestic use – seed – other a Export 2007–08 kt 7 160 3 105 188 2 917 4 055 2 303 1 083 669 1 502 1 321 48 1 273 181 450 450 16 434 3 790 2 833 4 2 829 110 387 320 1 319 1 13 289 8 029 257 7 772 4 347 2008–09 kt 7 997 4 104 221 3 884 3 892 2 254 980 658 1 160 999 59 940 161 363 363 18 345 2 692 1 694 2 1 691 957 376 363 1 362 67 12 587 7 523 301 7 222 5 078 2009–10 kt 7 865 3 230 226 3 004 4 635 2 668 1 248 720 1 162 954 42 912 208 545 545 9 536 1 508 1 167 3 1 164 998 328 321 1 320 13 11 407 6 216 281 5 935 5 854 2010–11 kt 7 995 2 631 199 2 432 5 364 3 601 1 062 700 1 128 1 009 41 969 118 355 355 7 348 1 935 984 3 981 341 357 312 1 311 9 11 769 5 292 251 5 040 5 832 2011–12 kt 8 221 2 075 166 1 909 6 146 3 758 1 619 770 1 262 1 059 40 1 019 203 285 285 13 272 2 239 1 060 3 1 057 950 451 346 1 345 46 12 457 4 824 222 4 601 7 346 2012–13 s kt 7 466 2 177 167 2 009 5 289 2 972 1 512 805 1 115 999 35 963 116 429 429 12 417 2 005 861 2 859 1 179 496 391 1 390 106 11 511 4 856 217 4 639 6 691

a In principle, calculated as a residual: production plus imports less exports less any observed or assumed change in stocks less seed use. The sum of domestic use and exports may differ from production as a result of changes in stocks. b Presentation of export volumes for grain sorghum and corn (maize) in this table was changed in December 2011. Export volumes are now shown in the year of actual export, which is typically one year after production.. s ABARES estimate. Includes ABS preliminary production estimates for barley, grain sorghum and oats. Note: Production, use and export data are on a marketing year basis: marketing years are November–October for barley, oats and triticale; March–February for grain sorghum and corn (maize). Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Pulse Australia; United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade)

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Australian crop report February 2014

ABARES

Table 17 Grains and oilseeds prices
Crop 2012 Apr–Jun A$/t 228 279 202 251 275 269 197 248 204 264 220 292 269 536 520 545 247 612 345 634 409 2012 Jul–Sep A$/t 299 351 262 258 262 291 254 249 222 307 250 301 319 557 520 627 305 640 369 710 418 2012 Oct–Dec A$/t 306 355 305 275 301 302 289 286 234 318 248 330 307 566 520 563 336 514 343 623 411 2013 Jan–Mar A$/t 314 321 301 294 319 288 289 267 232 350 250 341 295 550 520 545 331 518 370 595 431 2013 Apr–Jun A$/t 307 327 293 300 319 272 305 313 260 391 269 356 296 565 520 588 299 532 396 612 444 2013 Jul–Sep A$/t 293 341 265 314 329 260 312 357 252 601 269 370 270 550 520 595 288 439 403 617 489 2013 Oct–Dec A$/t 300 341 241 263 327 271 310 383 203 278 257 383 215 513 540 568 309 390 335 513 437

Wheat Domestic: feed, del. Sydney International: US No.2 hard red winter, fob Gulf a Barley Domestic: 2 row feed, del. Sydney Export: feed b Export: malting b International: feed, fob Rouen a Grain sorghum Domestic: feed, del. Sydney Export b Oats Domestic: feed, del. Sydney Export b International: CME oats nearby contract Corn (maize) Domestic: feed, del. Sydney International: US No.2 yellow corn, fob Gulf a Oilseeds Domestic: canola, del. Melbourne Domestic: sunflowers, del. Melbourne International: US soybeans, fob Gulf a Pulses Domestic: lupins, del. Kwinana Domestic: chickpeas, del. Melbourne Domestic: field peas, del. Melbourne Export: chickpeas b Export: field peas b

a Average of daily offer prices made in US$, converted to A$ using quarterly average of daily exchange rates. b Export unit values reflect the average price received for grain exported over the quarter, not current market prices. These prices are the average unit value (free on board) of Australian exports recorded by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. A long lag time can exist between when exporters negotiate prices and when the product is exported. Note: Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.

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