Running Header : UZBEKISTAN

ECONOMIC REFORMS OF UZBEKISTAN

Aditya N. Syafruddin
Abraham Ayii
Mike Latham
Loraynne Wilmer

WILMINGTON UNIVERSITY

OVERVIEW Located in the heart of Central Asia, Uzbekistan is poised to become an economic hub connecting Europe, Western Chine, the Middle East, South and Southeast Asia. It is a major producer and exporter of natural gas and has sizable reserves of petroleum, coal, and various metallic ores. It is a leading grower of cotton and also produces fruits and vegetables and karkul sheep. Uzbekistan is bordered by Kazakhstan on the northwest and north, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan on the east and southeast, Afghanistan on the south, and Turkmenistan on the southwest.

CURRENCY In Uzbekistan the form of currency is known as Uzbek Sum and is abbreviated UZS. In Turkish Uzbek means “pure” and Sum means “gold” so the true root of the word means pure gold (What is the Uzbekistan som (UZS?). UZS are available in both coin and notes the denominations are as follows: Coin is offered in 50, 20, 10, 5, 3, and 1 and notes are obtainable in 1000, 500, 200, 100, 50, 25, 10, 5, 3, and 1. The UZS like many other currencies can be exchanged for other world currencies. Compared to a few of the major currencies the UZS is very weak. For 1 US Dollar you would receive 1,273 UZS, 1 AUD is equal to 1,071 UZS, 1 GBP equals 2,555 UZS, 1 JPY would equate to approximately 11 UZS, and for 1 EUR you would receive 1,767 UZS (Uzbekistan Currency).

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)
Uzbekistan - GDP (purchasing power parity) (Billion $) The gross domestic product as it relates to purchasing power parity is the compilation of values of the all final goods and services produced within a country and then valued at prices in the United States for a one year period. With all numbers being in billions of dollars 2005 results for Uzbekistan totaled 47.59, 2006 increased (PPP) to 50.31, in 2007 the (PPP) rose once again to 55.75, 2008 the GDP of (PPP) moved to 64.4 the fifth increase in (PPP) as many years, and finally 2009 brought a decrease in (PPP) which brought the total to 60.05. To get a better picture of what is actually happening to the GDP of (PPP) for Uzbekistan I have the percentage of increase/decrease for each year from 2005-2009. In 2005 it grew 8.18%, 2006 saw growth of 5.72%, 2007 rose again 10.81%, 2008 had the largest percentage increase of the five years coming in with 15.52%, and 2009 saw the first regression of growth by producing negative6.75% (Uzbekistan - GDP (purchasing power parity) (Billion $)).

Uzbekistan – GDP – Real Growth Rate (%)

The gross domestic product as it relates to the real growth rate is a countries GDP growth adjusted for inflation and shown as a percentage. In 2005 the real growth rate was 4.4%, 2006 it was 7%, 2007 the real growth rate was 7.3%, in 2008 the rate increased again another 9.5%, and in 2009 the real rate of growth was 9%. Over the past five years Uzbekistan’s gross domestic product of real growth rate percentage has steadily increased in each year from 2004-2008 with a one half of a percentage point decrease in 2009 (Uzbekistan – GDP – Real Growth Rate (%)).
Along with the above measurements for GDP per capita is currently estimated for 2010 at US $ 1,366. While the GDP per capita as it relates to (Purchasing Power Parity) is estimated for 2010 at $ 3,022 International Dollars. And the GDP separated by composition of sector is approximately: 26.7 % for agriculture, 39.7 % for Industry, and 33.5% related to services (Uzbekistan Country Report).

POPULATION Uzbekistan has a population that consists of roughly 130 nationalities and compared to other Asian republics the population in Uzbekistan is one of the largest. The majority of the population consists of Uzbeks however some other nationalities that make up the population of Uzbekistan are: Russian, Kazakhs, Tatras, Karakalpaks, and Tajikhs. More than sixty percent of the country reside in the rural areas of the country were they are able to grow cotton, grapes, and lemons (Population of Uzbekistan).
Uzbekistan - Population
Population is considered the number of people who live in a particular city, state, or country. This being said Uzbekistan’s population has grown from approximately 26.85 million people in 2005 to nearly 27.61 million in 2009. This shows a 7.06% increase from 2005-2009 compared to the previous five year period of 2000-2004 (Uzbekistan – Population).

Uzbekistan – Population Growth Rate (%)

The population growth rate for Uzbekistan shows the annual percent increase/decrease in the population. We will take a look at the percentage change from years 2005-2009. In 2005 the population growth rate was 1.67%, in 2006 the growth rate increased to 1.7%, 2007 brought an increase of 1.732%, 2008 the growth slowed slightly only growing .965%, and in 2009 the rate fell again compared to the prior year coming in at .935% increase in population (Uzbekistan – Population Growth Rate (%)).

GOVERNMENT
After leaving the Soviet Union on 31 August 1991, the Republic of Uzbekistan became independent, after more than a century of Russian and Soviet rule. Declarations of independence were backed by national referendums with overwhelming approval. In the first free election in Uzbekistan on 29 December 1991, Islam A. Karimov was elected President of the Republic by the majority (88%). The basis of the political system is the new Constitution adopted on 8 December 1992. President Karimov, as the Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers, is at the head of the Government. The second position in the political system is occupied by the Prime-Minister, who is nominated by parliament on the recommendation of the President. There are six deputy prime-ministers who supervise various domains of the economy. The democratically elected parliament – Oliy Majlis – controls political and economic processes through special bodies and, for the time being, controls banks as well. Foreign investment is regulated by the Ministry for Foreign Economic Relations. The Constitution calls for a three-part division in which separation between executive, legislative and judicial branches approximates Western patterns. However, in reality, most of the power is concentrated in the executive branch, particularly in the President and his council. The judiciary lacks independence, and the legislature, which holds a few sessions each year, has limited power to shape laws. The President selects and replaces provincial governors. The link between the Cabinet of Ministers and the President is the First Vice Chairman of the Cabinet who is the direct representative of the President. Concentration of power in the President permits a firm hand to guide the country to a gradual and orderly transition to a market economy, however, most large enterprises are still state owned or controlled.
Following independence in September 1991, the government still sponsors measures that often increase, not decrease, its control over business decisions. The government implements a strict import substitution policy to control foreign trade and prevent capital outflow. In 2003, the government accepted Article VIII obligations under the International Monetary Fund or IMF, providing for full currency convertibility. In practice, firms can wait months or even up to a year for currency conversion. Convertibility restrictions, difficulty withdrawing local currency from bank accounts, and other government measures to control economic activity, (e.g., import and export restrictions, and intermittent border closings) have constrained economic growth and led international lending organizations to suspend or scale back credits.

MARKET While occupying an advantageous geographic position in Central Asia, Uzbekistan is a land-locked country. They depended heavily on an intricate Soviet system of trade routes and energy pipelines for essential input supplies and exports. Rich agricultural, mineral, and fuel resources of the region, though, made it a potentially attractive outlet for foreign investors. However, it needs to improve its network of rail/road/air links to trade with the rest of the world. Uzbekistan has an extensive network of regional railway and auto routes which connect it with Kazakhstan, Russia and other Newly Independent States (NIS). However, most of the routes leading out of Central Asia to non-NIS need upgrading if trade and transit are to increase. Following a long period of isolation and catering to the needs of the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan faced the tough challenge of how to exploit their natural resources more effectively to improve living standards, while simultaneously introducing the systemic changes needed to achieve a market framework and to integrate their economies with the rest of the world. On 21 January 1994 the President issued a major decree, “On Measures for Further deepening Economic Reforms, Providing for the Protection of Private Property and for the Development of Entrepreneurship”. It is regarded by many as an important turning point in that the President, for the first time, sought both to deepen and to speed up the economic reforms. In particular, the decree provided for an inter-ministerial council on economic reform, entrepreneurship and foreign investment; expansion of the powers of the privatization committee to include many aspects of private sector development; creation of a stock exchange, real estate exchange and commodity exchanges; permission for persons to hold foreign currency accounts; elimination of import duties for one year; five-year exemption from obligatory foreign currency surrender for joint ventures which invest in priority sectors and have 50 per cent foreign ownership; and establishment of a state insurance company to guarantee foreign investments. The economy of Uzbekistan has been characterized by the subsidy system of the former centrally planned economies. Consumer items such as food, utilities, housing, transport and energy were heavily subsidized until mid-1994. The reform of the subsidy system and price controls is a prerequisite for the successful restructuring of enterprises and the financial system. Without a clear signal on prices, investors and producers cannot determine the potential value of privatized assets. Most consumer subsidies for food (except bread) have been eliminated by the Government and it intends to increase prices for energy and utilities. There is an informal system of price control; enterprises are allowed to increase prices only if their costs increase. ECONOMY
Uzbekistan economy is primarily based on agriculture and natural resources extractions. The country is the world’s second largest major exporter of cotton but recently, gas and petroleum have replaced cotton as the dominant sources of foreign currency earnings. Although, agriculture has been replaced by gas and petroleum and the agro-industrial sector still contributed about 18% percent of the country’s economy. Cotton is the leading agricultural product with about 11% percent of Uzbekistan’s gross domestic product. (Uzbekistan embassy, 2010) For instance, export of hydrocarbon including gas and petroleum accounted for 40% percent of the country’s foreign exchange earnings in 2009. It also is a major exporter of uranium, gold and strategic minerals. (Uranium is Uzbekistan’s major export to United States). Gold has accounted for 7-10% of gross domestic products in the year 2009 and Uzbekistan is the world’s seventh largest exporter of gold. Manufacturing has increasingly become important particularly in automotive sector. The auto manufacture segment has largely benefited the Russia market and has substantially increased the country economic growth, (Cia.gov, 2010).
The International Monetary Fund estimates the 2010 GDP growth figure as 8% percent. The IMF projects 2011 GDP growth of 7% percent and unemployment and underemployment is very high. Unemployment figure is estimated around 8% percent and underemployment is also estimated at 25% percent. With all these being said, the country’s economic performance has been very stable over the last three years and resulted in a positive trade balance. The country’s inflation for the year 2010 was estimated around 9-11% percent. The Uzbek’s government has put in placed tight policies and regulations to combat higher inflation and these policies had caused shortage of cash at during the course of the year, (Emerging europemonitor.com, 2010).

MARKET STRUCTURE
Since independence from Soviet Union in 1991, the Uzbekistan government has followed policies of gradual transition to a free markets economy but the large enterprises are still state own or controlled. The government has led these changes and has encouraged private ownership by selling state owned companies to private citizens. The development of the stock exchange took place alongside the development of the market economy including the privatization and de-monopolization process. Today the market share is still small in term of quantity, variety and volume of transactions conducted through exchange,( Uzbek,1997)
Although the government has sold some of stated own companies to the public, it has not relented on control. For instance, the government has implements a strict import substitution policy to control foreign trade and prevent cash outflow. One can said that Uzbekistan market structure is based on restricts state controlled market with little or none free capital market. Because of the government controlled and highly regulated market, Uzbekistan has lost hand full of foreign companies in 2006 and 2007. This was due largely in part, because of investors lost of confidence, harassment of foreign companies by official, and currency convertibility problems.

FINANCIAL STRUCTURE
Uzbekistan has been on the economic and financial reforming since it gained independence from Soviet Union. The Soviet banks located in Uzbekistan became the independent banks of Uzbekistan. It was after the declaration of independence that the government started to establish the new structure of the banking system. The new country then created a two-tier banking system with central bank of Uzbekistan formed from the already existing Uzbekistani department of Gosbank, as well as commercial bank based on non-stated forms of property. The primary tasks of the central bank of Uzbekistan included tasks to conduct monetary policy and bank supervision and to provide Uzbekistan with its own payment system. The country has adapted the free market principles and since than its’ economy has improved significantly, (Akimov, 2002).
Although, this is has been the case, the financial market is still under tight control of the Uzbekistan government in so many ways. One example is that the government still has strict rules and regulations on inflow and outflow cash and transfers in the country. One perfect example is the fact that almost all the country’s banks are controlled by the government. Also, the highly regulated trade government has led to declines in both import and export since 1996, although the imports have declined more than exports, as the government squeezed imports to maintain hard currency reserves. Finally, despite all these continuing economical control issues, Uzbekistan has managed to do extremely well during the global market crises and has grown a GDP of 8.1% in 2009. (CIA fact-book, 2010)

INTEREST RATES
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan has been developing its infrastructure and economy to become a financially stable and, independent country. This section will discuss interest rates in Uzbekistan as well as the stability of its financial markets and the various security markets.
There are three main types of interest rates in Uzbekistan. The most widely used reference rate for short-term interest rates is the UBA UZIBOR which stands for the Uzbekistan Interbank Offered Rate and is the rate of interest at which banks will offer funds, in marketable size, in Uzbek interbank market. The next rate is the UBA UZIBID, which stands for Uzbekistan Interbank Bid Rate and is the rate at which major banks in Uzbek interbank market are willing to borrow (bid for) funds from each other. Finally, there is the UBA UZIAR, which stands for the Uzbekistan Interbank Median Average Rate and is the median average between UZIBID and UZIBOR. (UBIZOR, 2010)
“Uzbekistan Banking Association (ABU) publishes UZIBOR Index (Uzbekistan Interbank Offered Rate). It is calculated on the basis of deposit rates offered by commercial banks in compliance with the instructions approved by the Commission on UZIBOR. The rate shall be fixed by UBA and shall be deemed as final. UBA shall consult on the rates with the members of Commission on UZIBOR. Leading commercial banks of Uzbekistan shall be included in commission.” (UBIZOR, 2010)

Below are the UZBIOR Index, UZBID Index, and the UZIAR average rate for October 12, 2010. These numbers are based on quotes from eight participating Uzbek banks.

Name | O/N | 1 WK | 1 MTH | 2 MTH | 3 MTH | 6 MTH | 9 MTH | 12 MTH | AGROBANK | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | ASAKA BANK | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | CAPITAL BANK | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | IPAK YULI BANK | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | IPOTEKA BANK | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | NARODNIY BANK | 7 | 7.5 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | NATIONAL BANK | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | QISHLOQ QURILISH BANK | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | RAVNAQ BANK | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11.5 | 12 | 13 | TRUST BANK | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | TURON BANK | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 15 | UT BANK | 7 | 7.5 | 8 | 8.5 | 9 | 9.5 | 10 | 10.5 | UZSANOATQURILISH BANK | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | UZIBOR | 7 | 7.88 | 8.75 | 10 | 11 | 11.63 | 12.5 | 13.25 |

Name | O/N | 1 WK | 1 MTH | 2 MTH | 3 MTH | 6 MTH | 9 MTH | 12 MTH | AGROBANK | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | ASAKA BANK | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | CAPITAL BANK | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | IPAK YULI BANK | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | IPOTEKA BANK | n/a | n/a | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | NARODNIY BANK | 4 | 4.5 | 5 | 5.5 | 6 | 6.5 | 7 | 7.5 | NATIONAL BANK | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | QISHLOQ QURILISH BANK | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | RAVNAQ BANK | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11.5 | 12 | TRUST BANK | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 2 | 2 | 3 | TURON BANK | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | UT BANK | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | UZSANOATQURILISH BANK | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7.5 | 8 | UZIBID | 3.5 | 4.13 | 5.25 | 5.88 | 6.5 | 6.88 | 7.63 | 8.38 |

UZIAR | 5.25 | 6 | 7 | 7.94 | 8.75 | 9.25 | 10.06 | 10.81 |

According to Advanced Financial Solutions, published in Uzbekistan Daily, interest rates on deposits increased for the month of September from August illustrated in the chart below. It is also worth mentioning that interest rates on deposits also increased in August from July. (Solution, 2010) | % per annum | Change for month | | Currency | Deposit type | | September | | | | | Soums | Checking | 3.91 | -0.36 | Soums | Debit card | 14.40 | 0 | Soums | 3M Term deposit | 20.68 | 0.23 | Soums | 6M Term deposit | 21.68 | 0.08 | Soums | 12M Term deposit | 23.05 | 0.55 | Soums | Avg. Term deposits | 22.23 | 0.76 | US Dollars | Avg. Term deposits | 6.71 | -0.24 | Euro | Avg. Term deposits | 6.40 | 0.22 |

STABILITY OF MARKETS
Interest rates are an important indicator of the economic health of a country. Likewise is the stability of its markets. In September of 2010, Standard and Poor (S&P) came to Tashkent,
Uzbekistan to evaluate and provide a rating for the banking system. Two key moments they pointed out were the “relative isolation of Uzbekistani banks from international markets” and “low external debts” (Poor's, 2010). They gave praise to the Uzbekistani government’s ability to support and regulate the banking system, and pointed out that while the Uzbek banks are not free from risk, they have not defaulted on external debt.
According to the Uzbekistan embassy, the National Bank for Foreign Economic Activity (NBU) “ranks among the strongest capitalized new financial institutions on the former USSR territory.” (Uzebekistan, 2008-2010) NBU is attractive internationally be cause it actively cooperates with foreign investment banks. (Uzebekistan, 2008-2010) The strength of the NBU coupled with the positive rating from the S&P suggest that the financial markets in Uzbekistan have come a long way from the fall of the USSR and are becoming more and more stable. The President of Uzbekistan has approved a program of further reforming and improving the stability of the financial and banking system of Uzbekistan for 2011-2015. (Temirova, 2010) Starting January 1, 2011, this program will include a mandate for new banks to “have €10 million charter capital in the soum equivalent while private banks €5 million in the soum equivalent.” (Temirova, 2010)

DIFFERENT SECURITY MARKETS
As a member of the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan did not have any securities markets. During that time of communism, the country was heavily dependent on the financial structure of the USSR.

“Most dynamic developments of securities market started in 1993, when the government launched medium & mass privatization and securitization of the State Owned Enterprises. Government agencies (Center for Coordination of Securities Market, Ministry of Finance and State Committee of Privatization) are working hard to improve the Uzbekistan’s young equity market.” (Bekenov)
As a way of economic development the country began to
“…privatize public property, create favorable investment climate and carry out modernization and technical re-equipment of all industries, as a result, it required considerable financial inflows of investors. Here securities market is a very connecting link between industries and investors.” (Alimuhamedov, 2008)
Some of the markets that exist in Uzbekistan are: The Tashkent Republican Stock Exchange, which is the country’s premier trading platform, OTC board which is divided in two, The Interbank Trading System which is for trading corporate bonds, and Elsis Savdo which is for trading small blocks of stocks, the Unorganized OTC market which is
“… available for non‐purchase transactions (heritage, gift, contribution into charter capital) in securities, transactions in shares of Closed Joint‐Stock Companies, initial placements in the primary market (both for local investors and foreigners) and transactions in corporate bonds” (Group, 2008); Finally, the Central Depository “which acts as a center for depository system (fully state controlled) and has correspondent relationships with all 2nd level securities custodians.” (Group, 2008) The Uzbek national stock exchange, which was not mentioned, has “good growth potential”, according to Uzbekistan Today. Additionally, Uzbekistan Today states
“…Last year the Uzbekistan Stock Exchange carried out primary sale of securities worth 173.3 bln soums, which were 3 times more than in 2006. Here the ratio of the first half of 2008 is nearly equal to the total rate of 2007. The structure of primary securities sale witnesses the domination of using business tools – stocks.” (Alimuhamedov, 2008)
The various securities markets, the stability of these markets, and the interest rates in Uzbekistan suggest that the country has been moving in the right direction, but still has room to grow.

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