...Industry Forecasting Porsche is a leader when it comes to sports cars. When thinking sports cars you cannot help but think of Porsche. Porsche has been around since 1931and has had its ups and downs in the auto industry but is still going strong with over 80 years under its belt. Porsche has a rich past in design and engineering and quality assurance. Porsche was created by Dr. Ferdinand Porsche “as a vehicle design firm in 1931 and did work for car companies” (Sass, 2009). Porsche has been different from the beginning by being “known in its early days as the Porsche Engineering Office, Porsche did not start off as an automaker, but rather a firm that sold designs and engineering services to other car makers” (Henderson & Reavis, 2009). Porsche did not design its first car until 1934. The first car Porsche designed was at the request of Adolf Hitler who “commissioned Porsche to make a “peoples car” or “Volkswagen” (Henderson & Reavis, 2009). It was not until after the war that Porsche designed and produced its first sports car. The first “Porsche 356 series rolled off production lines” (Henderson & Reavis, 2009) in 1948. Dr. Ferdinand Porsche and his son Ferry Jr. would run the company until Ferry Jr. took over after his father’s death in 1951. The very symbol that is found on the hood of Porsche today is the exact symbol produced in 1953by “Dr. Ferry Porsche designed an emblem including the coat of arms of Stuttgart and the coat of arms of Württemberg, along with...
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...Economic Forecasting Paper Debra Johnson Ellen Hertz Christine Sibert ECO/ 372 March 4, 2014 Timothy Ringgold Economic Forecasting Paper List of resources a person might use to gather historical economic forecast data: Bureau of Economic Analysis—The BEA is a good source for U.S. economic data on topics such as GDP, income, and employment at national , state local levels. This resource also contains data on U.S. international economic transactions (trade and foreign direct investment). Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)—provides information pertaining to employment, wages, prices at various levels (national, state, local). FEDSTATS--FEDSTATS, good staring place for data on the U.S. and contains links to statistical resources produced by the federal government Foreign Labor Statistics—this site, which is hosted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, allows for international comparisons of unemployment, compensation and other indicators. Federal Reserve System – is a good source for banking information, monetary policy, economic data, and other vital information. http://www.federalreserve.gov Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) – Open source of information on consumer price index, real gross domestic product, unemployment index, foreign exchange rate accompanied with graphs and historical data. http://www.research.stlouisfed.org Library...
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...Forecasting with Indices Geist Industries manufactures various types of snow shovels for distribution to several states in the United States, mostly for small retail businesses. The corporate headquarters and manufacturing plant are located in Anchorage, Alaska with distribution plants in 21 states. The company has recently hired a new CEO who has asked that I make a seasonal demand forecast based on the last four years of winter historical inventory data that has been recorded. The winter historical inventory data is based on actual demand in numbers of snow shovels manufactured by Geist Industries. To minimize the data and make it more manageable for analysis, I have devised a twelve month average for each of the four years and plotted the resulting data to forecast the upcoming year’s demand in Figure A. The following formula was used to calculate the twelve month average individually for years one through four: Total Demand (Actual) for Year (January thru December) = Individual Year Average 12 (Figure A) I have extended the trend line to forecast the 5th year demand, in this case to provide a forecasted average that follows a similar trend to that which has been displayed in the past four years. The trend line that has been established displays an R2 value of 0.9553 allowing a conclusion that the data set is relatively useful in forecasting future demand. Using the 12 month average for the last...
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...Financial Forecasting Christine Wilkes Fin/200 October 25, 2011 Financial forecasting is the beginning and most important part of starting up any business or just trying to keep one running. For a business the financial planning helps the owner track current and future events to make adjustments as needed through out the years transactions so that management can gain the greatest benefit. Forecasting can help any company in spending money along with time trying to develop and market products so that a company will succeed instead of fail. When a new company is in the process of starting up the there needs to be a few things that will be needed. The first is a business proposal, which will go in depth about what the company is about along with the start up costs. The new company also needs a sales projection plan along with a pro forma income statement. A family business or a business that has been around for years would also require financial forecasting. Although established a family business or a long-term company needs to have a pro forma income statement along with a cash budget showing monthly or yearly expenses. When a company has been established a balance sheet is also required With the rise and fall of interest rates along with suppliers going out of business, change is inevitable so companies also need to make changes. Financial forecasting is a plan and a way to keep companies up and running and a head of the game if followed correctly. The pro forma income...
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...Forecasting with Indices Andrea Quantitative Reasoning for Business - QRB 501 Kumar Das, PhD January 24, 2011 Forecasting is a tool business use to help plan for the future. Businesses forecast, revenue, overhead, needed inventory, consumers demands, as well as other factors. Forecasting helps to determine the future market value of a company or organization. Forecasting is important because the curse of action business take today often depends on what is going to happen in the future. The winter historical data for the University of Phoenix covers four years of demand in actual units. Each year has been broken down to 12 months of data. The data is presented in figure 1.1 Typical Seasonal Demand for Winter Highs Actual Demands (in units) Month Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Forecast 1 55,200 39,800 32,180 62,300 2 57,350 64,100 38,600 66,500 3 15,400 47,600 25,020 31,400 4 27,700 43,050 51,300 36,500 5 21,400 39,300 31,790 16,800 6 17,100 10,300 31,100 18,900 7 18,000 45,100 59,800 35,500 8 19,800 46,530 30,740 51,250 9 15,700 22,100 47,800 34,400 10 53,600 41,350 73,890 68,000 11 83,200 46,000 60,200 68,100 12 72,900 41,800 55,200 61,100 Avg. Figure 1.1 (University of Phoenix, 2011). The Time-Series Method is an example of quantitative forecasting. This forecasting model uses historical data to try to predict future events .Knowing the data from the last four years, will help to predict how long the demand in units...
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...Inventory Systems Michael Asibu, Woodrow Lemon, Laura Moll, Jenessa Nagozruk, Brian Norton QRB/501 May 21, 2012 Ohidul Siddiqui Inventory Systems With the increasing demand to cut costs and increase revenues, developing the right inventory systems have become essential to compete in business. According to the Counselors to America’s Small Business, “Control of inventory, which typically represents 45% to 90% of all expenses for business, is needed to ensure that business has the right goods on hand to avoid product shortage and meet the consumer’s needs” (Counselors to America’s Small Business, p. 1). To ensure proper business practice an evaluation of inventory systems is necessary to ensure businesses can be cost-efficient, profitable, and provide for consumers’ needs. Top and Bottom System The top and bottom inventory system seems simple at first glance. “In this system, [the company] puts limits on how high and low [the company] inventory levels can go for each product (Fishbowl, 2012). The company sets two levels for the stock. The first is the level the managers know that they need to order, and the other is the level that the managers need to bring the stock back to. So if the top level was 15 and the bottom level was five the managers would order 10 more when the company hit five products left. This works to an extent but if the products were snow shovels, then keeping 15 on hand yearly would not make sense. The business would be losing valuable storage...
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...Industry Forecasting Introduction Trend analysis and forecasting play a big part in projecting a product’s assumed success or failure within the different markets. This paper will identify a particular product and present research illustrating the major trends that will impact that industry over the next five years. Finally, I will synthesize how those anticipated trends might impact the successful marketing of the product. Product The iPad is a highly portable tablet pc designed by Apple to enable its users to surf the internet, wherever there is an internet connection and with the cellphone industry providing Wi-Fi, this connection can be made practically anywhere. Apple released the iPad to the public in April 3, 2010 and functions like a touch screen computer with access to web browsing, email, photos, videos, music, games, e-books, and much more (Apple, 2010). This high definition portable pc has revolutionized the way people define computers and innovatively captured the market share. Future Trends The Apple iPad has without a doubt made a tremendous splash in the ocean of portable computing. In terms of trend setting, Apple seems to be the leader when it comes to creating and producing a product, while others stumble over to mimic. This is supported by the idea that those organizations that can identify and effectively deal with the key trends before its competitors do, is much more likely to win and retain the competitive advantage (Mullins & Walker...
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...Forecasting and Indices Forecasting is a process in which statements or conclusions are made regarding the outcome of events that have not yet happened. Forecasting is predicting what the could look like. There are many examples of forecasting. Estimating or predicting can be referred to as formal statistical methods that employ time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data. Forecasting can be use to estimate a wide variety of issues, weather related events, the use of resources, sales, profit or loss and even staffing needs for a particular project. Coupling these findings with good planning can give a company a good indication of what the future should look like. Forecasting can use many different methods. Evaluating your objectives and conditions relevant to the individual situations can help in choosing the correct method to use. Another option is to use several methods and compare or combine the results, as many times, there is no one “best” method. “The forecast error is the difference between the actual value and the forecast value for the corresponding period. where E is the forecast error at period t, Y is the actual value at period t, and F is the forecast for period t. Measures of aggregate error: Mean absolute error (MAE) Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) Percent Mean Absolute Deviation (PMAD) Mean squared error (MSE) Root Mean squared error (RMSE) Forecast skill (SS) Average of Errors (E)...
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...Economic Forecasting Paper By ECO/ 372 November 18, 2013 Learning Team Reflection Week Two List of resources to gather historical economic data and economic forecast data Some of the resources, which are useful to gather historical data as well as forecasting the new data include Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce and FRED, Economic Time-Series Database, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau, Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Office of Management and budget (OBM), Federal Reserve Releases (FRB), NBER'S Macro-Historical Database, New York's Fed's statistics and data, Statistical abstract of the United States and CIA world fact book. How and why each source is valuable and useful FRED database; allows citizens to see how the country's financial state is. The data includes the national economic and financial date “including interest rates, consumer price indexes, employment and population and trade data. The Bureau of Economic Analysis; includes estimates concerning national, international, and regional economic activity. It also provides statistics decision influenced by the government officials, business people, households and individuals.” (History matters. 2013. Para 3, 5). The Bureau of Labor Statistics gives specific information about employment, unemployment, consumer price index, and producer price index. The Bureau of Labor Statistics updates the...
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...INTRODUCTION To value the business we need to forecast some or all of the following depending upon which model of valuation we intend to use: dividends, future free cash flows, earnings per share, EVA which itself requires NOPAT and the Balance Sheet. Note that even if we are interested in cash flows we will usually forecast these using the indirect method rather than the direct method because the basic building blocks of profitability, growth, investment and financing are more readily framed in terms of accrual based accounting and moreover corporate tax is profit based – ultimately we are interested in the prospects for profitability. We should use at least two methods of valuation to value a company and in any one method look to undertake some sensitivity analysis or scenario analysis. The forecasting should be comprehensive and be conditional upon the corporate and business strategy, the accounting analysis and the financial analysis. Importantly, the forecasts should impound the evidence on key financial variables such as sales growth, EPS over time and ROE over time.EVIDENCE ON SALES GROWTH AND EARNINGS We begin with some evidence which is useful in the context of a forecast. But do remember this is what occurs on average. If the forecast is largely at variance from the evidence then this will need explaining within the context of the business strategy or the accounting. In addition if strategy or accounting changes we need to assess the consequences for the forecast...
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...Time Series and Forecasting Learning Team A Quantitative Reasoning for Business/501 August 23, 2011 Dr. Champion Time Series and Forecasting The purpose of this paper is for statisticians from the accountant department of Norton Company to compute the quarterly seasonal index for the years of 2003 through 2006 by using the ratio-to-moving-average method. In addition, the accountants will deseasonalize the data and determine the trend equation. Furthermore, the statisticians will estimate Norton Company’s seasonally adjusted sale for the four quarters of 2007. The quarterly sales for the Norton Company were given in millions of dollars for four years. Therefore, the recorded quarterly sales for the Norton Company were referenced and included 16 quarters total. A scatter plot was graphed showing the recorded sales for the 16 quarters. The following equation was obtained from the historical data: y = 0.461x + 4.2 with the R² of 0.1695 and a R of 0.412. R is the coefficient of correlation, which provides the strength and direction of a linear relationship. R2 is the coefficient of determination, which measures the amount of variation in y that can be explained by the variation in x for example: 0 ≤ R2 ≤ 1. With this unadjusted regression equation and R² we can see that there is seasonality. Accordingly, a higher R² is required to prove that our equation is accurate and good for forecasting. The first step is to find the moving total....
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...Making Decision Based on Demand and For Casting Presented By: Earnest Lee Sims Presented By: Dr. Domino’s pizza is conducting data to decide to whether to open a store in Lake Providence, Louisiana. Domino’s pizza will complete an indept evaluation and research of this city to determine should they open up a store and the potential demand for the area. Domino will collect data and information on the following areas males, females, children, population, unemployment, and income and food environment. Upon collecting conduct a regression analysis. According to McCvigar. Moyer, and Harris stated that “given any particular value of (mana gerial economics, doll). We can therefore, assess demand for Domino pizza in Lake Providence, Louisiana on various factors such as population, education and food environment. Demographic and Independent Variables The new location of a new Domino’s pizza will be in Lake Providence, Louisiana 71254 which is located in East Carroll Parish, we will be conducting a demand analysis on Lake Providence being the only major city has a population of 3,848 in 2012 in East Carroll Parish in 2012 (city-data). The population also consists 1,728 or 44.9% males, 2,120 or 55.1% females, median resident age 31.0 years, income $19,650, number of grocery stores 3, and number of full services restaurants. Population and income will play a crucial role in Domino’s pizza decision to open up a chain in Lake Providence, Louisiana. According to McGigan, Moyer and Harris...
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...value is the is defined as the the value of of a business or firm on the financial statements. Market value is the value of the firm based on the stock market. Market value is computed buy taking the number of oustanding shares multiplyed by the stock price. Both book and market values are useful but market values are what anyalysts use the most when discussing firm values. 3. senerio anyalysis is the process asking what if questions, trying to estimate the how much the value of the firm would decrease in worst case senerio problems. 4. Sensitivity anylaysis is a way to predict the the outcome of a decision if the situation turns out to be different from what was origonally predicted, this is helpful in forcasting risk. Also be said as a variation on a senario. 5. Forcasting risk or estimation risk is the possibility that we will make bad decisons for the firm based on erriors in our projected cash flows. 6. The four categories of real options are to expand, contract, delay and shut down. An example of expand is if we find a project with a good NPV or our demand for sales is high for a product we may consider to expand to meet that demand. An example of shutdown would be if our firm isnt even able to cover the expense it occurs then it may be a good time to shut...
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...Irvin Whiteman ““A man always has two reasons for doing anything: a good reason and the real reason.” – J.P. Morgan J.. Morgan Attention To The Detail Contents Origin 1 EARLY YEARS AND FAMILY 2 Forcasting 2 political parties 3 buying property 4 Cash Consolidation 5 Origin JP Morgan is one of the most powerful bankers of his time. J.P. (John Pierpont) Morgan, who died in 1913. He financed railroads and helped organize U.S. Steel, General Electric and other major corporations during his time. He did alot and hadrto go threw a lot as well. The Connecticut native followed his wealthy father into the banking business in the late 1850s, and in 1871 formed a partnership with Philadelphia banker Anthony Drexel. His family was already established. He just added his way of doing thing when his time came along. In 1895, the firm was reorganized as J.P. Morgan & Company. Morgan used his powerful influence to help level out American financial markets during several economic crises. However, he faced criticism that he had too much power and was accused of manipulating the nation’s financial system for his own gain. I am not sure what he had to gain from doing so. He was already established and famous. Morgan spent a large portion of his wealth amassing a vast art collection. I see it as having a hobby that can generate a great profit the older it gets. EARLY YEARS AND FAMILY John Pierpont Morgan was born into a well known family from New England on April...
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...Engineering change order – a revision to a drawing or design released by engineering to modify or correct a part concept development phase – 1st phase of a project development effort. Here a company identifies ideas for new of revised products and servicesDFM, product design for manufacturability – the systematic consideration of manufacturing issues in the design and development process, facilitating the fabrication of the products components and their assembly into the overall product serviceability, testability – serviceability the ease with which parts can be replaced, serviced, or evaluated. Testability the ease with which critical components or funtions can be tested during production pre-sourcing & pre-approving suppliers – process of preapproving suppliers for specific commodities or parts robust design, variation – design of products to be less sensitive to variations including manufacturing variation and misuse, increasing the probability that they will perform as intended.QFD, quality function deployment, roof –graphical tool used to help organizations move from vague notions of what customers want to specific engineering and operational requirements “house of quality”product development process & consumer –concept dev. Planning, design and dev, commercial preparation, launch development funnel, sequential, concurrent – a process in which the product or service idea must clear specific hurdles before it can go on to the next dev phase.design development phase...
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