...CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 3.0 Research approach This chapter will illustrate the way the research has been conducted by presenting the methodologies used. The technicalities if conducting this research will be described in detail. Central issues such as the method of research and the nature of the research will be highlighted. The study will implement the Delphi research technique. The reason why the researcher has considered this as appropriate is because it is non-experimental and there is no manipulation of variables, since it is simply an exploration of the opinion of the experts in the field of the study (William, Donnelly, & Arora, 2015). The researchers seek to gain insight into the processes of providing community based programs in the state of Virginia to help at risk children. In order to accomplish the research objectives and address the research questions accordingly, this research will utilize primary and secondary sources of data collection. Primary sources will provide the data for the study, while secondary sources will add understanding to the topic area thorough providing supplementary information to the primary design (Hammersley & Traianou, 2012). The primary data will be gathered from conducting a survey. 3.1. Research methodology 3.2.1. The Delphi technique The intention of this study is to identify appropriate solutions for at risk children in Virginia. To achieve this, it is essential for one to gain perspectives...
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...TRAFFIC FORECASTING The essence of port traffic forecasting is to find out: (a) What kinds and tonnages of commodities will move through the port? (b) How will these commodities be packaged and carried as maritime cargo? (c) What ship types, tonnages and frequency of calls will this result in? Traffic forecasting requires a combination of commercial and economic knowledge and the mathematical techniques are of minor importance and can often be omitted entirely. Far more important is the need to bear constantly in mind the very high degree of uncertainty in any forecast, and to take steps to minimize the risk which this causes. Any forecast of future trade will be uncertain, and ports are particularly vulnerable in view of their long planning time-scale and limited ability to influence demand. All forecasts should be linked with the overall national development plans. Furthermore, maritime trade is going through a period of rapid change which critically affects the volumes and types of traffic likely to use any port. Errors in forecasting can be serious, and the consequences of overestimating and underestimating are not equal. To over-build may add only a few dollars, at most, per ton to freight costs, but to under build may cause congestion leading to additional costs of $100 per ton. Even when all precautions have been taken to reach realistic and well-reasoned forecasts, the remaining uncertainty usually produces a wide variation of possible levels of traffic when...
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...in cooperation within the entire Hammond Group. The main issue was described by Hammond’s management as late delivery from the cabinetry plant to the Guelph plant what displeased customers and caused numerous delays on production site. All problems can be divided in 5 general groups and will be described in detail further: 1. Forecasting Issues 2. Production Scheduling Issues 3. Organizational Issues 4. Process Strategy Issues 5. New Demand Management Issues 2.1. Forecasting Issues The sales team created forecasts in October for the following calendar year by product lines for all products, based on this forecast the both plants planned their productions and orders accordingly. The company revised its forecasts on a quarterly basis. Production planners reviewed performance monthly and weekly then changed the production schedule when its original forecast proved inaccurate. But frequent changes in customer demand and design caused serious production disorder and delays in orders fulfilment. Creating a new production schedule on a monthly basis did not help as the supply chain had been already filled in based on the old one. Moreover, forecasting inaccuracy resulted in too little or too much inventory, which was not enough to fulfil unexpected sales demands. 2.2. Production Scheduling Issues Production scheduling issues were mainly caused by lack of production capacity for customized products on cabinetry plant as well as by delays, shutdowns and unneeded changeovers...
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...Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to demand forecasting. Survey method and Statistical method are further sub-divided into various methods. The former obtains information about the consumers’ intentions by conducting consumers’ interviews, through collecting experts’ opinions. The later using past experience as a guide and by extrapolating past statistical- relationships suggests the level of future demand. Survey methods are found appropriate for short term forecasting or demand estimation, while statistical methods are more suitable for long term demand forecasting or business and economic forecasting. Either of the methods may be used for forecasting demand for existing products, but the demand for new products, in the absence of any historical data, must be forecast through the survey method only. Under survey methods surveys are conducted about the consumers’ intentions, opinions of experts, survey of managerial plans, or of markets. Data obtained through these methods are analyzed, and forecasts on demand are made. These methods are generally used to make short-run forecast of demand. Survey methods are further sub-divided in to: Consumers’ Survey and Experts’ Opinion and Survey of Managerial Plans. A. Consumers’ Survey: Consumers’ survey involves direct interview of the potential consumers who are contacted by the interviewer and asked how much they would be willing to buy a given product at different prices. Consumers’ survey may take any form...
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...FORECASTING AND ENVIRONMENT FORECASTING Forecasting is essentially the study of internal and external forces that shapes demand and supply. The shape of the things to come will depend partially upon how one shapes the controllable factors. With different strategies, the forecasting will be different, offering multiple scenarios for management decision making. Forecasting is an estimate of sales in physical units for a specified future period under proposed marketing plan or programme and under the assumed set of economic and other forces outside the organization for which the forecast is made. Long term forecasts: Product diversification, sales, advertizing budgets, capacity planning and investment planning, Short term forecasts: Material control, loading and scheduling, and budgeting. Objectives of forecasting Short term objectives • • • • • • Formulation of production policy – Regular supply of material, Maximum utilization of machines, Regular availability of labour Formulation of pricing policy Proper control of sales Arrangement of finance Production capacity Labour requirements Long term objectives • Capital restructuring and resourcing Steps in forecasting demand Determining the objectives Period of forecasting – Short term or long term Collection and analysis of data – data to be collected, tabulated, analyzed and cross-checked by applying statistical or graphical techniques Study of correlation – between sales forecasts and sales promotion plans studying policies...
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...Forecasting Methods Genius forecasting - This method is based on a combination of intuition, insight, and luck. Psychics and crystal ball readers are the most extreme case of genius forecasting. Their forecasts are based exclusively on intuition. Science fiction writers have sometimes described new technologies with uncanny accuracy. There are many examples where men and women have been remarkable successful at predicting the future. There are also many examples of wrong forecasts. The weakness in genius forecasting is that its impossible to recognize a good forecast until the forecast has come to pass. Some psychic individuals are capable of producing consistently accurate forecasts. Mainstream science generally ignores this fact because the implications are simply to difficult to accept. Our current understanding of reality is not adequate to explain this phenomena. Trend extrapolation - These methods examine trends and cycles in historical data, and then use mathematical techniques to extrapolate to the future. The assumption of all these techniques is that the forces responsible for creating the past, will continue to operate in the future. This is often a valid assumption when forecasting short term horizons, but it falls short when creating medium and long term forecasts. The further out we attempt to forecast, the less certain we become of the forecast. The stability of the environment is the key factor in determining whether trend extrapolation is an appropriate forecasting...
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...Distribution and Channel Management MT211 The main aim of my essay is to show my understanding of the main principles and concepts of distribution and channel management through the use of notes on Moodle, information I gathered from attending lectures and also from literature that I have read on this topic. The Supply Chain is the sequence of suppliers that contribute to the creation and delivery of a good or service to end customers, meanwhile Supply Chain Management is organizing the cost effective flow and storage of materials, in-process inventory, finished goods and related information from point of origin to point of consumption to satisfy customer requirements. A major element of the supply chain is the use of logistics which is the management of the storage and flow of goods, services and information throughout your organisation. Logistics can be broken down into three major elements, Firstly, materials management which is the sourcing and receiving of raw materials or unfinished products for subsequent use. Secondly, material flow system which can be defined as the ability to locate and schedule material through to end production and disposition, and finally the physical distribution which is the delivery of finished goods to customers. The main aim of a supply chain management is to evolve a company’s supply chain into an optimally efficient, customer-satisfying process, where the effectiveness of the whole supply chain is more important than the effectiveness of...
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...Forecasting Forecasting is one of the most important business functions because all other business decisions are based on a forecast of the future. Poor forecasting results in incorrect business decisions and leaves the company unprepared to meet future demands. The consequences can be very costly in terms of lost sales and can even force a company out of business. Forecasts are so important that companies are investing billions of dollars in technologies that can help them better plan for the future. For example, the ice-cream giant Ben & Jerry’s have invested in business intelligence software that tracks the life of each pint of ice cream, from ingredients to sale. Each pint is stamped with a tracking number that is stored in an Oracle database. Then the company uses the information to track trends, problems, and new business opportunities. They can track such things as seeing if the ice-cream flavor Chocolate Chip Cookie Dough is gaining on Cherry Garcia for the top sales spot, product sales by location, and rates of change. This information is then used to more accurately forecast product sales. Numerous other companies, such as Procter & Gamble, General Electric, Lands’ End, Sears, and Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, are investing in the same type of software in order to improve forecast accuracy. (R. Dan Reid & Nada R. Sanders, 2009) It is not possible to accurately forecast the future. Because of the qualitative nature of forecasting, a business can come up with different...
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...Forecasting: Relying On The Unknown http://www.manufacturing.net/articles/2007/10/forecasting-relying-on-the-unknown September 23, 2007 was the autumnal equinox — the official end of summer. The leaves are beginning to turn colors and the seasons are changing. For some manufacturers, the end of summer could be the end of a busy season, or it could just be the beginning. If you manufacture beach towels or Christmas trees, you’re locked into seasonal demand. How do you adjust your operations to handle your peak time? How much of a peak period will you have? How much capacity will you need? What will be your inventory storage and holding costs? Factors and Consequences There is a lot of variability when it comes to demand — consumer tastes may change, competition could increase, weather patterns could change, etc. “The farther away in time a forecast is from the sales it projects, the less accurate the forecast will be. This stands to reason that the longer the horizon, the more changes will take place between the forecast and the actual sales,” said Jane Lee, Vice President of Supply Chain, Supply Chain Consultants. “Picture a company that makes orange juice,” said Jim LeSage, Executive Vice President with The Facility Group. “They may be producing more at the start of the school year or during cold and flu season, but the oranges are only harvested at a certain time.” That leaves the orange juice company with few options, LeSage explains. The company...
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...how my chosen corporation American Express applies some of the forecasting techniques to better develop the company. There will also be the analysis of production plans, master production schedules, and carrying inventory and how it relates to the overall American Express budget. Along with all the above we will also compare and contrast how planning usage differentiates between a service organization such as American Express and a manufacturing organization. Lastly we will also compare and contrast the use of material requirements planning system concepts. When it comes to forecasting it is first important to determine the different types of forecasting and how they are classified. In forecasting there are four basic types which are qualitative, time series analysis, casual relationship, and simulation. The first forecasting type qualitative is "subjective or judgmental and are based on estimates and opinions", (Chase, Jacobs, & Aquilano, 2006). Some of the main characteristics of qualitative forecasting are market research which is encompassed by collecting data by surveys and interviews which help determine market hypothesis. This research is most commonly used for long range and new product sales. This would be a great description as to when American Express uses surveys to improve on new production of invoicing and reporting tools to provide to our clients. Another characteristic to qualitative forecasting is historical analogy. This is the one characteristic that would...
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...CHAPTER SEVEN Discussion Questions 1. What role does forecasting play in the supply chain of a build-to-order manufacturer such as Dell? Although Dell builds to order, they obtain PC components in anticipation of customer orders and therefore they rely on forecasting. This forecast is used to predict future demand, which determines the quantity of each component needed to assemble a PC and the plant capacity required to perform the assembly. 2. How could Dell use collaborative forecasting with its suppliers to improve its supply chain? Collaborative forecasting requires all supply chain partners to share information regarding parameters that might affect demand, such as the timing and magnitude of promotions. Dell could share with their components suppliers all of the promotions, e.g., holiday, back-to-school, etc., they have planned. These suppliers could, in turn, notify their suppliers of discrete components that a spike in demand is anticipated. These demand forecasts for end items determine the demand for components and coupled with knowledge of fabrication times, allows all members of the supply chain to provide the right quantity at the right time to their customers. 3. What role does forecasting play in the supply chain of a mail order firm such as LL Bean? LL Bean has historically operated almost exclusively in a make-to-stock mode and with very few exceptions, stocked products that did not go out of style as rapidly as many other clothing...
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...The role of scenarios in strategic foresight” Article Summary In the context of the global financial crisis and the turbulence that this has brought to the world economy and therefore to organisations, the article “The role of scenarios in strategic foresight” by Gill Ringland published in the journal Technological Forecasting & Social change volume 77 (9) aims to persuade the reader on the need for strategic foresight over the next decade and what role scenarios can play within strategy foresight activities in organisations (Ringland, 2010). The author predicts that organisations in the west will experience a period of great change and that they are mostly ill-prepared to deal with the rate or the enormity of this change. Ringland believes that conventional business planning will need to change and suggests the need to develop a systematic review of organisational practices that will lead to strategic foresight. This will ensure that organisations are in a position to cope and survive changes in their external environment. Ringland begins by pointing out that the current position of the world economy shows that business and government have a significant debt burden that will take years to pay back especially in the west. In an environment of unemployment, reduced consumer spending and debt repayment, wealthy nations will recover slower than developing nations. There is also a shift in international competitiveness due to changes in labour skills and costs as well as technological...
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...your business plan to determine the resources you need to achieve the business’s goals. It will better prepare you for staff turnover, recruitment, and strategic hiring – and alleviate stress when you have emergency/last-minute hiring needs. This module provides a detailed outline of how small business owners can develop a human resource plan. There is also a discussion of issues to consider when developing a succession plan, the plan that is needed to consider how to carry on the business, or sell the business, when the current management/ownership leaves. Tips for creating a personnel policy manual are also included. Module 1 - p 2 Managing Your Human Assets Module 1: Human Resource Planning 2. DEVELOPING AN HR PLAN 2.1 Forecasting Hiring Needs The daily demands and hectic lifestyle of business owners and managers often has an unfortunate...
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...TOPIC 1. FUNDAMENTALS OF ECONOMIC FORECASTING TOPIC I TOPIC I. FUNDAMENTALS OF ECONOMIC FORECASTING Contents 1. Meaning of forecasting 2. Features, importance and limitations of forecasting 3. Forecast types 1. Meaning of forecasting Forecast is a likely, scientifically well-grounded opinion about the possible state of the events, objects or processes in the future. Forecasting is a process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed. Forecasting is a process of predicting or estimating the future based on past and present data. Economic Forecasting is a process of making forecasts based on analysis of past trends and regularities of the economic processes. Economic forecasts can be carried out at a high level of aggregation – for example for GDP, inflation, unemployment or the fiscal deficit – or at a more disaggregated level, for specific sectors of the economy or even specific companies. Economic forecasting provides information about the potential future events and their consequences for the organization. It may not reduce the complications and uncertainty of the future. However, it increases the confidence of the management to make important decisions. Economic forecasting includes the following steps: 1. Identifying items to be forecast. The items of socio-economic forecasting are the economic processes (for example, inflation, demand, supply), any indicator describing the company activity (for example...
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...Factors Influencing Demand Forecasting: Demand forecasting is a proactive process that helps in determining what products are needed where, when, and in what quantities. There are a number of factors that affect demand forecasting. Some of the factors that influence demand forecasting are shown in Figure-2: The various factors that influence demand forecasting (“as shown in Figure-2) are explained as follows: i. Types of Goods: Affect the demand forecasting process to a larger extent. Goods can be producer’s goods, consumer goods, or services. Apart from this, goods can be established and new goods. Established goods are those goods which already exist in the market, whereas new goods are those which are yet to be introduced in the market. Information regarding the demand, substitutes and level of competition of goods is known only in case of established goods. On the other hand, it is difficult to forecast demand for the new goods. Therefore, forecasting is different for different types of goods. ii. Competition Level: Influence the process of demand forecasting. In a highly competitive market, demand for products also depend on the number of competitors existing in the market. Moreover, in a highly competitive market, there is always a risk of new entrants. In such a case, demand forecasting becomes difficult and challenging. iii. Price of Goods: Acts as a major factor that influences the demand forecasting process. The demand forecasts of organizations are highly...
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