...Lebanon The Israel Hamas Hezbollah Conflict The United States and the Israel-Hezbollah War Prof. Jeremy Pressman Although American soldiers were not involved in the fighting in Lebanon and Israel this past summer, the United States was nonetheless a central player in the war. U.S. policy was defined by staunch American support for Israel and repeated calls by U.S. officials to use the crisis as a means to get at the root causes of violence in the region. What were the American objectives in this war? Does a preliminary assessment suggest that Washington took steps toward achieving them? How does U.S. policy on the Arab-Israeli conflict look moving forward? American Objectives in the Israel-Hezbollah War Two global foreign policy commitments informed the United States view of the Israel-Hezbollah confrontation this past summer; the war on terror and the democratization of the Middle East. Since September 11, 2001, the American war on terror has been defined to include several different international actors. In his speech of September 20, 2001, President George W. Bush stated that the war would “not end until every terrorist group of global reach has been found, stopped and defeated,” and that “any nation that continues to harbor or support terrorism will be regarded by the United States as a hostile regime.” In addition, he warned, terrorists could not be accommodated but instead must be met by force. This approach has most directly been applied to al-Qaeda and its satellites...
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...A Nuclear Iran and Proliferation It has been argued that the Israeli fear of a nuclear Iran is more due to the resultant threat of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East than an Iranian NW per se.23 The revolutions that have swept across the region over the year or so will conceivably lead to greater control of Arab foreign policy by the Arab street, thus animosity towards Israel will appear in future decision-making. Israeli apprehension is born out of the theory that an Iranian NW will, by way of the security concept mentioned previously, lead to proliferation in the region. Combine greater regional acrimony toward the Jewish state with an Arab nuclear capability and Israeli fears are comprehensible. As Kenneth Waltz has argued, history demonstrates that the cascade concept (a state will rapidly construct NWs to counter strategic imbalance created by a hostile neighbour’s nuclear arming) is flawed. His argument is further consolidated by virtue of the fact that the fear of rapid nuclear proliferation has been vociferously audible in Western media almost every year since the 1960s, yet the world possesses only nine nuclear powers.24 Leaving this convincing argument to one side, would a nuclear Iran provoke proliferation in the Middle East? Sagan’s aforementioned three theories assume that a state has the ability and the opportunity to develop a weapon.25 By inserting such a caveat we can eliminate numerous states from this predictive analysis of proliferation in the...
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...Iran and Israel have long been enigmatic players on the international stage, belonging to the Middle East but not quite identifying with the majority of its inhabitants. For the sole majority-ethnic Persian state in the Middle East and one of the few Shiite Muslim ones, friction and tension have been constant features of its relations with the predominantly Arab and Sunni Middle Eastern states. If Iran is somewhat of an outcast in the region, this is even more the case for Israel as the only ethnically and religiously Jewish state, not only in the region but in the world at large. Aside from Turkey, which is really the only other significant non-Arab state actor in the region, Iran and Israel represent deviations from the norm of mostly Sunni Muslim and ethnically Arab states in the Middle East. Still, what stands out as truly unique in the modern Middle East is the Iranian-Israeli connection, a facet of international politics unparalleled elsewhere in terms of Persian-Jewish contact and cooperation spanning thousands of years, overall international interdependence, and the abrupt switch from amity to enmity as of 1979. While the international media has cast an ever-stronger spotlight on the Iranian-Israeli relationship in the past five or ten years, it has long deserved closer scrutiny. For two countries to be as intertwined at the political, military, economic and societal levels – like Iran and Israel from the 1950s through to the 1970s – and then to become and remain bitter...
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...Regime 10 Variables Used to Define a Model 11 Conclusion 12 References 13 Introduction As time goes on Iran is becoming an increasing area of concern and threat to the United States and its allies. Iran has been working for some time at trying to establish itself as a dominant power, especially within the Middle East. This quest for recognition has caused rising national security concerns within the United States and some of its allied countries. Some of the most recent concerns include; Iran's nuclear program, threats of closing of the Straits of Hormuz, the oil sanctions, and Iran's threats towards other oil producing Arab nations. Iran has also been working at strengthening its ties with Syria, the Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shiite groups in Iraq, and ties to groups in Palestine and Afghanistan. According to Mansour (2008), Iran has many tools in place that have a major impact on their surrounding countries and on the United States. Iran is gaining allot of ground on becoming a dominating force within its region and is growing as a major influence on many countries. Iran is continuously gaining stronger alliances with some of its neighboring Arab communities including Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Even though the United States has worked with some of these countries in the past, it may prove to be difficult for some of them to choose sides if a conflict...
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...1. This paper will inform the reader about facts regarding the South American country of Venezuela. The paper’s three main topics include Venezuela’s economy and resources, which both revolve primarily around the petroleum industry, Venezuela’s political relations with Russia and China, and finally US national security and trade interests in Venezuela. 2. Nearly two times the size of the state of California according to the CIA World Fact Book, Venezuela is situated on the northern tip of South America. Venezuela’s available natural resources are abundant, and, according to Heather D. Heckle, in her article for the Encyclopedia Britannica, include some of the world’s largest natural gas deposits, iron ore, vast coal reserves, gold, diamonds,...
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...Russian Intelligence: Our Nation’s Most Credible Threat Throughout the course thus far, we have researched, reviewed, and assessed the intelligence capabilities of the Chinese, Iranian, and the Russian intelligence organizations in great detail. After the study of each countries intelligence capabilities, I have found that the Russians have the greatest intelligence capabilities that could directly impact the United States of America. Throughout this short essay paper, I will cover the following topics that will support my findings that Russian intelligence agencies are indeed the gravest threat to our nation. 1. Chinese Intelligence Capabilities 2. Iranian Intelligence Capabilities 3. Russian Intelligence Capabilities 4. Conclusion The three countries listed above will be assessed as either marginally capable, capable, or highly capable. Chinese Intelligence Capabilities and Limitations The Peoples Republic of China (PRC) overall are capable in the field of intelligence gathering. There is no doubt that China has increased their ability to gather intelligence in its neighboring...
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...global financial market and the modus operendi of the modern day terrorist groups. A terrorist act of sinking a crude oil carrier in the Straits of Hormuz for example, could have a direct impact on the price of crude oil and petroleum on the world market, to say nothing of shipping carrier prices and maritime insurance. Like ripples in a pond, the act would have far reaching consequences. Quantifying terrorism has now become an important tool both for the financial sectors 9who use it predominantly for insurance based risk analysis and also for government bodies who could use it for spotting emerging trends in terrorism and therefore investing in anti and counter terror procedures. So why might it be difficult to quantify terrorism? This paper attempts to answer that question. It looks at the early aspects of terrorism; it’s definitions, typologies and variables in order to establish a base unit from where terrorism can be measured and why terrorism actually needs to be quantified. It will also examine similar data, based on the same aspect of terrorism and examine the differing results. Introduction Early Beginnings “One man willing to throw...
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...SECURITY RESEARCH PAPER A PERSPECTIVE ON TERRORISM Piers Hutt piershutt@hotmail.com 1 March 2015 A PERSPECTIVE ON TERRORISM ABSTRACT Purpose: To critically examine the threat of modern terrorism to Western society. Design/methodology: An assessment was made of publically available documentation. The paper is then divided into a number of sections. It initially deals with the difficulties of defining terrorism, followed by its symbiotic relationship with the media. The next section looks at the modern Islamic Fundamentalist threat and the primarily neocon response since 9/11. Whilst the US has withdrawn combat forces from Iraq and Afghanistan, a bipartisan approach has been maintained to counterterrorism. The dangers of such an approach are examined along with emerging threats. Table of Contents * Abstract * Introduction * Define * Role of the Media * Psychology * Modern Terrorism * The Response * Counterview – The Dangers * Looking Ahead – The Next Potential Threats * Another Approach * Conclusion INTRODUCTION “Terrorism has become part of our daily news diet. Hardly a day goes by without news of an assassination, political kidnapping, hijacking or bombing somewhere in the world. As such, incidents of terrorism have increased in the past decade, the phenomenon of terrorism has become one of increasing concern to governments....” Introduction. With the recent high profile terrorist attacks in Sydney...
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...Will A Nuclear Deal with Iran Impact the Iranian Regime’s Behavior and Change the Regional Dynamic in the Middle East? Mike Maleki December 06, 2014 Illustrated by Paul Combs of the Tribune Media Services. Many in the West have expressed concern about a possible failure of the P5+1 countries – the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany – to secure a comprehensive deal with Iran on its controversial nuclear program. These concerns, however, represent a somewhat myopic view of the bigger picture concerning Iran’s nuclear ambitions. A thorough look at the Iranian regime’s domestic and foreign policies reveals that a nuclear deal would, in fact, have very limited effect on the behavior of Iran’s authoritarian theocracy and change very little about the dynamics in the 1 Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution changed the balance of power in the Middle East. Following the revolution, Iran, a pillar of the US’ regional Cold War policy, became increasingly isolated as it quarreled with its majority Sunni neighbors for influence and sought to export its Islamic revolution as far as to Europe.1 However, Iran attempted to overcome its isolation as a Shiite and majority Persian state by tempting the aspirations of the region’s Arab population with its support for radical anti-Israel/anti-US regional movements, thus successfully establishing a web of proxies and surrogates – the so-called “axis of resistance.” Furthermore, since 2003, the Iranian...
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...R2P: Doomed from the Start? According to law that dates back to 1648, nations have the right to govern within their borders in whatever manner determined fitting. Some states, although granted this right that is inherent to the foundation of the international system, fail to protect their citizens from harm. Too often in recent history have governments neglected to protect their people during conflicts or crises, and with a world with increasing visibility and communication, states have responded with a basic plan to prevent mass crimes such as Bosnia and Rwanda. Thus, Responsibility to Protect (R2P) was developed as a caveat for the international community to intervene when a government fails to protect its own citizens from mass atrocities. Genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity, and ethnic cleansing are the four conditions under which the international community is authorized to intervene, should a state fail to protect its citizens (Rudolph 2014). In the past 20 years, R2P has been under construction and constantly under evolution from theory to practice. While parameter definition and norm building continue to cycle from lessons learned, the three foundational pillars upon which the R2P model dangles from remains the same: “Pillar 1: Every state has the responsibility to protect its populations from the four mass atrocity crimes Pillar 2: The wider international community has the responsibility to encourage and assist individual states in meeting that responsibility ...
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...Introduction In recent years, to talk about changes and transformation in Turkish foreign policy have become common place1. Since the end of Cold war, many books and articles have been published claiming that Turkey’s external relations have undergone a profound change2. Most commentators when analysing Turkish foreign policy in the 1990s perceived a significant qualitative transformation in comparison with the foreign policy conducted during the Cold War, which is often described as passive and reactive. An assertive and multi-directional foreign policy was developed, and Turkey became much more active in its neighbourhood, establishing ties with the Caucasus and the Turkic Republics, participating in peacekeeping missions in the Balkans, promoting economic relations with Black Sea countries, increasing economic and political ties with the Middle East. However, a darker side of this activism in foreign policy was observed in the 1990s, when Ankara’s ready resort to the threat or the use of military force was particularly visible. Regular military incursions in Northern Iraq to crush PKK forces, threats against Syria, with troops amassed at the border in 1998, hard rhetoric during the Russian S-300 missiles crisis planned to be deployed in Cyprus in the same year are a few examples (Park 2005). In 1995, the Turkish Parliament announced that if Greece expanded its territorial waters from six to twelve miles, Turkey would go to war and war almost happened over ...
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...Contemplating Realities and Paradoxes in the Global War on Terror John B. Alexander, Ph.D. Introduction The approach of this monograph is to examine paradoxes encountered in the Global War on Terror (GWOT). The intent is to spark debate on disputatious issues. Clearly, many of the existing situations appear intractable given the emotional investment that has been made by the public, and exacerbated by political manipulation of elected officials. Also unavoidable are the fiscal constraints that are becoming increasingly binding. Examined in Section One are problematic premises related to the four fundamental approaches to countering terrorism; increased security, eliminating the terrorists, attacking the support infrastructure, and altering conditions that breed discontent. Despite trite, albeit politically popular, commentary proposing those methods, execution of those concepts is extremely difficult, often controversial, and sometimes counterproductive. Section Two of this monograph addresses several other policy decisions that generate problems that are difficult to resolve, but directly impact the forces involved. Among those topics are; roles of contractors, individual loyalties versus national interests, alliances of convenience, foreign response to our policy on preemption of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), the consequences of our stated objective of spreading democracy, the impact of U.S. presence in the Gulf region, and quandary associated with defining...
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...Armed Conflict in Syria: Background and U.S. Response Jeremy M. Sharp Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs Christopher M. Blanchard Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs September 6, 2013 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RL33487 Armed Conflict in Syria: Background and U.S. Response Summary The popular-uprising-turned-armed-rebellion in Syria is in its third year, and seems poised to continue, with the government and an array of militias locked in a bloody struggle of attrition. Members of Congress and Administration officials are debating options for responding militarily to President Bashar al Asad’s forces’ reported use of chemical weapons in attacks on rebel-held areas and civilians. After the U.S. intelligence community concluded that Asad’s forces used weapons in limited attacks earlier this year, the Obama Administration had signaled a pending expansion of U.S. civilian and military assistance to the opposition. Earlier in the conflict, U.S. officials and many analysts asserted that President Asad and his supporters would be forced from power, but had difficulty articulating how that outcome would take place within the timeframes they set forth. Recent developments suggest that both the opposition and the Asad regime face considerable challenges in their attempts to assert greater control over Syria. Increasingly, analysts have focused on the potential for the regime and its opponents to carve out strongholds and prolong the fighting. Rapid escalation...
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...CREATE Research Archive Non-published Research Reports 2007 A Brief Analysis of Threats and Vulnerabilities in the Maritime Domain Niyazi Onur Bakir CREATE, nbakir@usc.edu Follow this and additional works at: http://research.create.usc.edu/nonpublished_reports Recommended Citation Bakir, Niyazi Onur, "A Brief Analysis of Threats and Vulnerabilities in the Maritime Domain" (2007). Non-published Research Reports. Paper 5. http://research.create.usc.edu/nonpublished_reports/5 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by CREATE Research Archive. It has been accepted for inclusion in Non-published Research Reports by an authorized administrator of CREATE Research Archive. For more information, please contact gribben@usc.edu. A BRIEF ANALYSIS OF THREATS AND VULNERABILITIES IN THE MARITIME DOMAIN1 N.O. BAKIR University of Southern California, Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) 3710 McClintock Avenue, RTH 322, Los Angeles, CA 90089-2902 USA Abstract The attacks of September 11 have exposed the vulnerability of the American homeland against terrorism. Terrorists have already expressed their intentions to continue their aggression towards United States. Their goal is to incur maximum economic damage, inflict mass casualty, spread unprecedented fear among citizens and thus destabilize the nation to further their agenda. Many critical sites lay across US maritime borders, all of which could be potential targets to accomplish these goals...
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...! ! ! ! ! Assignment#3! MB!8600! ! WILL!SYRIA!BE!THE!NEXT!IRAQ?! > A!look!at!what!USA’s!move!in!Syria!should!be! by! Deep!Bhatia! Student!ID:!500128395! September!24th,!2013! ! ! 1! ! Table&of&Contents& 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 ! Introduction...................................................................................................................................1!! Methodology.................................................................................................................................1!! Summary!of!the!empirical!findings................................................................................................2! References.....................................................................................................................................5! Appendix........................................................................................................................................8!! ! 2! ! WILL&SYRIA&BE&THE&NEXT&IRAQ?& Introduction& What!began!as!a!relatively!minor!civil!uprising!in!Damascus,!Syria!in!March!2011!as!an!influence!of!Arab& Spring!(wave!of!demonstrations!and!protests!in!the!Arab!world)!has!now!escalated!to!a!full>blown!civil! war,!with!an!alarming!number!of!deaths,!and!the!news!of!chemical!weapons.!The!war!initially!began!as!a! protest!from!the!masses!against!the!allegedly>corrupt!regime,!led!by!Bashar!Al>Assad,!whose!main! demand!was!that!he!step!down!from!his!post;!however,!recent!tolls!have!estimated...
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