PROGRESS ASSIGNMENT #3

Maurice E. Simmons

INTL 303: Introduction to Intelligence

28 December 2014

American Military University

Many of the intelligence community’s (IC) greatest triumphs can be traced back to the use of multiple intelligence methods. As Clark so eloquently stated, “The game of intelligence collection is a multidisciplinary endeavor.” Employment of multiple platforms, sensors, and techniques provides advantages for the analyst to produce valuable strategic intelligence. Collaborative intelligence not only creates accurate and timely information, collaborative intelligence can also reduce wasteful endeavors. For example, a Congressional directed staff committee recently found the IC must increase collaboration among its intelligence systems. On the other hand, information based on a single source is deficient, and does not produce qualitative assessments. According to Anissa Frini, “Stovepiping keeps the output of different collection systems separated from one another and thus, it prevents one discipline from cross-checking another.” The lack of collaborated intelligence can lead to erroneous reporting and deception by the adversary. In order for policymakers to formulate strategic plans, information or rather intelligence gathered must have a holistic and integrated perspective.
This paper will begin by highlighting the value of strategic intelligence to policymakers and leadership, the advantages of employing multiple intelligence methods, and will focus on analysis based from an all-source perspective which is necessary for strategic intelligence. The objective of this paper is to define and represent the all-source intelligence capabilities based on an integrated approach.
The goal of strategic level intelligence is to provide accurate, timely, and relevant intelligence therefore enabling decision makers to take appropriate actions as a contingency develops. According to the Army, “strategic intelligence is vital in order to provide strategic warning to senior leaders.” Strategic level intelligence is the link for decision superiority assisting in establishing strategy, policy, and military plans at the national level. The information collected from national agencies, such as CIA and NSA, allow analysts to consider civil-military relations, political, economic, and military capabilities. Employing various collections, and methods focusing on producing strategic intelligence, can include analyzed geographic regions and climate considerations. At this level, intelligence collected can be used in the research and development of new capabilities that can help mitigate the strength of the enemy.
Interestingly enough, strategic intelligence pushed the creation of courses-of-action or otherwise known as COA. The formulation of national strategy calls on COAs to consider the entire range of resources available to other nations, terrorist, or insurgent groups. Effective strategic planning is created from information collected, and builds a detailed understanding of adversarial intent and future strategy. Information derived from strategic intelligence will also help develop strategic centers of gravity (COG). The development of COGs defines the source of power that gives the adversary the will to fight. Strategic COGs can evaluate alliances, political, military leaders, and government ideologies. Once identified, the decision maker can make a determination whether to employ capabilities that can range from economic sanctions to kinetic actions. According to Dinu “the strategist decision-makers must have a rigorous picture of the international strategic environment and of the risks, threats and opportunities, as well as the costs involved by selecting a certain course of action.” In other words, the lack of strategic intelligence would cripple the ability for policy makers to form long term plans for the accomplishment of national objectives.
There is a great deal of value in strategic intelligence; however, it is also necessary to understand the value of the five basic intelligence components. By incorporating information from all intelligence disciplines such as Human Intelligence (HUMINT), Imagery Intelligence (IMINT), Geospatial Intelligence (GEOINT), Signal Intelligence (SIGINT), and Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) the analyst can produce consolidated intelligence products of great importance to policymakers. To better understand the importance of integrating each type of intelligence, let us start with a description. HUMINT is the oldest of the intelligence disciplines and is gathered from human sources through direct contact. HUMINT information can be valuable if the source is credible and validated. For example, military attaches are considered one of the best HUMINT sources based on their access to foreign military counterparts. Military attaches can provide insight into the development of new military capabilities, or new military doctrine, which can be essential for understanding future strategy. Imagery Intelligence comes from images made from overhead national assets (balloons, airplanes, or satellites) or images on the ground. This category is connected to GEOINT, which is intelligence derived from the exploitation of imagery and geospatial information to describe, access, and visually depict physical features and geographically referenced activities on Earth. IMINT is the second oldest collection method, and is a subset of GEOINT. IMINT focuses on utilizing electro-optical imagery, and is treasured because as the old saying goes: A picture is worth a thousand words. OSINT information is produced from public available information. As Clark points out, “Open-Source Intelligence deals with information that is publicly available, such as newspapers, radio and television broadcasts, journals, the Internet, or commercial databases.” OSINT is valuable because it is used frequently by the IC. According to Eth Zurich, “OSINT’s importance is widely acknowledged. It is estimated that OSINT provides between 80 and 95 per cent of the information used by the intelligence community.” Lastly, SIGINT refers to the collection and processing of communications transmitted by electromagnetic or non-electromagnetic means. Initially, analysis will start with one of the single intelligence sources providing an indication or warning. An intelligence assessment from a single source or method will lead to incomplete analysis.
Combatting single-source process requires a multi-disciplined approach, and employing different collection methods can reduce the reliance on a single intelligence discipline. A multi-disciplined approach is the principle applied to intelligence disciplines when describing the effect garnered when employing multiple collection platforms at the same time rather than as individual assets. As previously stated, the goal for each of these collection methods is to provide accurate, relevant, and tailored information to the customer. The multi-disciplined approach synchronizes intelligence disciplines and produces synergy. Synergy means different parts are combined so that the effect produced by working together is greater than their individual parts. The Senate Intelligence Committee stated “Synergistic or fused collection would make more efficient use of collection assets through timely tipoff, cooperative geolocation, avoidance of duplication, assignment of the most efficient collector for a given task, and through coordinated orbits or collection plans.”
The effect of consolidating multiple sensors offers the analyst a detailed understanding of the environment. Additionally, the analyst can now conduct resource integration to increase the efficiency of the overall collection effort. An intelligence analyst oftentimes will not have the ability to task all intelligence disciplines at the same time due to a lack of resources. However, the analyst, with a combination of at least two intelligence disciplines, will provide added value to the policymaker decision making process. For example, “Global integrated ISR is vital for indications and warnings (I&W) functions. Global integrated ISR provides timely and continuous near-real time information to assess potential threats to the United States and its allies.” The only way for the analyst to create a accurate assessment is by connecting the dots from many different sources. The value of a multi-discipline principle comprised of multiple intelligence disciplines that can shed a different light on a problem set. Furthermore, the unified effort of multiple collection sources speeds up the intelligence cycle process, ensuring information is analyzed efficiently.
When employing different collecting methods, synergy becomes increasingly important as the analyst attempts to understand a developing situation. The information processed from multiple platforms assists intelligence analysts in creating fused assessments. What is fusion? Fused intelligence occurs when derived information collected from multiple sources are combined, evaluated, and analyzed to provide accurate intelligence. Fused intelligence is critical to understanding the environment because it will help reduce uncertainty. The reason intelligence methods warrant a further integrated study is because fused intelligence is far more valuable than single sourced information.
Historically, the intelligence community has seen the value of fused intelligence analysis. Analysts employing single source methods of gathering intelligence have led to intelligence failures. During the Cuban Missile Crisis analysts employed IMINT, SIGINT, and HUMINT disciplines for I&W against the Russian military. The United States intelligence services discounted SIGINT, and instead put all focus on HUMINT. The disseminated reports were later found to be a part of Cuban and Russia elaborate plan in fooling U.S. intelligence services in believing nothing was happening. Moore stated, “Analysts first discounted the idea of a Soviet militarization of Cuba as the multitudes of disinformation masked true information from HUMINT sources” Unlike the employment of single source analysis, fusion of intelligence sources develop, validate, and reinforce previously collected information. The employment of collaborated sources is critical for analysts in understanding the strategic value of the intelligence gathered. For example, the discovery of the Russians transporting nuclear missiles and setting up launchers was the result of collaborative intelligence efforts. The intelligence community employed IMINT, SIGINT, and HUMINT capabilities in the hope of discovering the Russia and Cuba connection. The collaboration and synergistic effect produced from the multi-disciplined approach allowed for analysts to make the discovery of Russia naval military convoys delivering nuclear equipment to the Cubans. This in-turn helped President Kennedy explore options on how to prevent those shipments from taking place. The fusion of intelligence information was accurate enough for the Kennedy administration to have an effect on the environment and have decision superiority to take the initiative. Another factor in why integration is the key to providing accurate and timely intelligence is due to detecting deception efforts. Each of the collection systems used for this event have inherent weaknesses. By fusing intelligence, the weaknesses from each intelligence platform can be mitigated. HUMINT’s information is susceptible to misinformation and misinterpretation by analysts. SIGINT’s weakness is that the adversary may decide to cut communications and turn off all radars. IMINT’s is weak against cover and concealment techniques. However, using fused information snippets of collected information could be used to form a picture. Implementation of the multi-discipline approach can assist analyst in producing fused intelligence product.
The fusion of information warrants a change of in how intelligence analysts process, exploit and disseminate data. Based on a multi-discipline principle the entire traditional intelligence model can be adjusted to support a more collaborative approach. Frini stated, “The proposed model…intelligence tasking; direction; single source collection & processing; all-source discovery & fusion; dissemination; and evaluation. The model presumes a collaborative approach that enables the analysis of a greater quantity of single source data” In the past, intelligence analysts have employed a single source from SIGINT, IMINT, or HUMINT as a basis for an assessment. In the future, intelligence analysts can expect to combine intelligence disciplines beyond the five main components. Information will now include Measurement and signature Intelligence (MASINT), Foreign Instrumentation Signals intelligence (FISINT), and Biometric intelligence (BIOINT). Based on the integration of these different intelligence capabilities a new model to planning, tasking, processing, analysis, and dissemination must be examined and thoroughly considered. The information collected from multiple platforms can validate or verify a potential course of action. By planning and tasking multiple sensors and methods, analysts can generate a more complete and accurate assessment of the environment. The point here is the integration of multiple collection methods is not an anomaly, but it is successful and is the key to effective strategic analysis. One particular INT is not stronger than the other. Reliance on a single source and technology could potentially create bias and inaccurate assessments. Intelligence professionals need to ensure they do not develop a reliance on only one intelligence collection method.
Finally, the creation of strategic intelligence cannot be created from thin air. Analysts are useless unless they have the information that assists in the developing methodologies and reports. This paper examined the value of strategic intelligence, the various methods used to collect strategic intelligence, and how integrated INTs can create information of strategic value. Decision makers provided integrated, collaborated, corroborated, and finally evaluated can make an informed decision that could mitigate critical failures. The integration of all methods of intelligence is not a new concept. The military leaders of our armed forces have used fused information to for the creation of military plans and strategy. Taken a step further strategic intelligence can also assist in the creation of a collection strategy that can potentially disprove or prove a COA is even taking place. In the end, the multi-discipline approach is the best method for intelligence analysts to produce quality strategic intelligence. Strategic intelligence derived from fused information rather sources reduce misinformation, bias, and inaccurate reports. The information derived from the strategic intelligence helps provide critical situational awareness and decision superiority. In order for intelligence to have any strategic value to policymakers it must contain fused intelligence information.

BIBLIOGRAPHY 1. J. Ransom Clark. Intelligence and National Security. Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers,http://www.praeger.com.ezproxy2.apus.edu/. 2. "IC21: The Intelligence Community in the 21st Century." IV. Collection Synergy. December 19, 1995. Accessed December 28, 2014. http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/GPO-IC21/html/GPO-IC21-4.html. 3. Frini, Anissa, Boury Brisset, and Anne Claire. "An Intelligence Process Model Based on a Collaborative Approach." Online Information For The Defense Community. June 1, 2011. Accessed December 28, 2014. http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA547105. 4. Griffith, Samuel B. The Art of War. London: Oxford University Press, 1971. 129. 5. Dunmire, Major Brian. "Army Strategic Intelligence: Prepared for the Future." Federation of American Scientists. December 1, 2008. Accessed December 28, 2014. http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/army/mipb/2008_04.pdf. 6. War College, U.S. Army. "Department of Military Strategy,Planning, and Operations CAMPAIGN PLANNING HANDBOOK." Air University. January 1, 2008. Accessed December 28, 2014. http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/army-usawc/campaign_planning_primer.pdf. 7. Dinu, Mihai-Stefan. "STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY.""Carol I" National Defence University, 2014, http://search.proquest.com/docview/1528149435?accountid=8289. 8. Zurich, Eth. "Open Source Intelligence: A Strategic Enabler of National Security." CSS Analyses in Security Policy 3, no. 32 (2008): 1-3. Accessed December 28, 2014. http://www.css.ethz.ch/publications/pdfs/CSS-Analyses-32.pdf. 9. "GLOBAL INTEGRATED ISR AND HOMELAND OPERATIONS." ANNEX 2-0 GLOBAL INTEGRATED INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE & RECONNAISSANCE OPERATIONS. January 6, 2012. Accessed December 28, 2014. https://doctrine.af.mil/download.jsp?filename=2-0-D12-ISR-Homeland-OPS.pdf. 10. Moore, David T.. Critical thinking and intelligence analysis. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic Intelligence Research, Joint Military Intelligence College, 2006.

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[ 1 ]. J. Ransom Clark. Intelligence and National Security. Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers, 1.
[ 2 ]. "IC21: The Intelligence Community in the 21st Century." IV. Collection Synergy. December 19, 1995., 1
[ 3 ]. “Frini, Anissa, Boury Brisset, and Anne Claire."An Intelligence Process Model Based on a Collaborative Approach.”,8
[ 4 ]. Dunmire, Major Brian. "Army Strategic Intelligence: Prepared for the Future." Federation of American Scientists. December 1, 2008.,50
[ 5 ]. War College, U.S. Army. "Department of Military Strategy,Planning, and Operations CAMPAIGN PLANNING HANDBOOK." Air University. January 1, 2008.,89
[ 6 ]. Dinu, Mihai-Stefan. "STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY.""Carol I" National Defence University, 2014,63
[ 7 ]. Clark. Intelligence and National Security, pg 2
[ 8 ]. Clark, pg 3
[ 9 ]. Zurich, Eth. "Open Source Intelligence: A Strategic Enabler of National Security.",1
[ 10 ]. Clark, pg 3
[ 11 ]. "IC21: The Intelligence Community in the 21st Century." IV. Collection Synergy, 3
[ 12 ]. "GLOBAL INTEGRATED ISR AND HOMELAND OPERATIONS." ANNEX 2-0 GLOBAL INTEGRATED INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE & RECONNAISSANCE OPERATIONS., 1
[ 13 ]. Moore, David T.. Critical thinking and intelligence analysis. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic Intelligence Research, Joint Military Intelligence College, 2006., 26
[ 14 ]. Frini, Anissa, Boury Brisset, and Anne Claire, pg 2