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Play Time

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Submitted By giovicheng
Words 2180
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Caso Play Time Toy Company

Situación de partida. Producción estacional

1. Analizar la cuenta de resultados con producción estacional (Anexo 2): rentabilidad, etc. ¿Es atractiva esta empresa?

Analizando las distintas partidas que componen la cuenta de resultados, obtenemos el siguiente análisis:

Las ventas han crecido a una media del 20,2% durante los últimos 3 ejercicios económicos. Esta cifra en sí no nos dice demasiado, ya que desconocemos el tamaño del mercado potencial ni el ritmo de crecimiento que están teniendo las empresas de la industria del juguete.

Para poder extraer conclusiones acerca de las implicaciones que este crecimiento puede tener en la estructura financiera de la empresa, será necesario compararlo con la senda de crecimiento estable de Play Time Toy. Sí este crecimiento es superior a la senda sostenible, la empresa habrá tenido que incrementar los fondos disponibles, bien a través e entradas de capital bien a través de mayor crédito bancario, si por el contrario el crecimiento de la empresa fuese inferior a la senda sostenible, existirían excedentes de beneficios retenidos que se aplicarían a partidas del activo y que no supondrían incremento de fondos crediticios.

|Crecimiento de las ventas | |14% |25% |21% |
|Senda de crecimiento sostenible | | |8,3% |9,1% |

En este caso, como podemos observar, el crecimiento de la empresa ha sido muy superior a aquel crecimiento que hubiese dejado indiferente la estructura del pasivo crediticio, por ello, ha sido necesario financiar este pasivo con incrementos del pasivo exigible.

Por otra parte y sin entrar en su valoración, lo que sí podemos corroborar es la existencia de beneficios, lo que excluye a la empresa de problemas económicos, ya que en sus operaciones necesarias para su objeto la empresa obtiene beneficios netos. Los problemas, en caso de haberlos, serán de índole financiero, pudiendo ser operacionales o estructurales.

Analicemos otros datos de la cuenta de resultados:

| | | | |Prev. 1991| |
| |1988 |1989 |1990 | |media |
|Margen Bruto (% sobre ventas) |31% |28% |30% |30% |29,3% |
|Rentabilidad sobre ventas (ROS) |4,3% |1,2% |3,3% |3,3% |2,6% |
|Rentabilidad sobre Recursos Propios | | |8,3% |9,1% |8,7% |

Es importante ver como el margen bruto creció en 1990 para situarse en un 30% y la previsión para 1991 lo mantiene estable en este porcentaje. Otros ratios como la rentabilidad sobre ventas y la rentabilidad sobre recursos propios crecen en 1990 con respecto al año precedente y en la previsión de 1991, al menos se mantienen constantes y el algún caso (Rentabilidad sobre recursos propios) mejora.

Como conclusión, desde el punto de vista del análisis de la cuenta de resultados, esta empresa sí resulta atractiva. Se trata de una empresa que crece a unos ritmos muy altos (superiores a su senda de crecimiento sostenible), por lo que requerirá fondos negociados ajenos, pero que mantiene en estable un alto margen bruto (a comparar con el margen de la industria), y mejora su Rentabilidad sobre ventas y sobre recursos propios, lo que elimina la posibilidad de tener problemas económicos.

Ahora se tratará de completar este análisis con un estudio del Balance de la misma.

2. Revisar el balance con producción estacional (Anexo 1). Identificar los meses más representativos de la situación financiera de la empresa (NOF, FM, caja excedente, crédito necesario, etc.). ¿Es un balance sano financieramente?.

Analicemos los siguientes ratios:

| | | |Prev. 1991 |% medio de |
| | | | |crecimiento |
| | |1990 | | |
|NOF | |2.998 |3.441 |14,8% |
|FM | |2.268 |2.511 |10,7% |
|NOF - FM (NOF > FM) | |730 |930 |27,4% |
| | | | | |
|Días de promedio de cobro | |127,281 |122,52 | |
|Días promedio de existencias | |60 días |60 días | |
|Días de promedio de pago | |5 días |5 días | |
|Días de promedio de caja | |41,1 |49,8 | |

Nos encontramos con unas NOF en crecimiento (en la previsión de 1991 esta partida crece cerca de un 15%), mientras que el Fondo de maniobra también crece pero a un ritmo más bajo (10,7%). Este gap entre las NOF previstas para 1991 y el FM previsto para ese mismo ejercicio económico requerirá un esfuerzo inversor para hacer frente al crecimiento planteado. Este incremento de fondos deberá ser cubierto bien con Fondos propios, bien con fondos crediticios ajenos.

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Podemos observar en el gráfico cómo el FM es mucho más estable en su comportamiento que las NOF, y eso es así, porque incluso en empresas estacionales, donde las ventas mensuales tienen importantes variaciones, el FM representa la parte del capital permanente (pasivo fijo) que está disponible para financiar partidas del circulante, mientras que las NOF recoge íntegramente partidas adscritas al circulante de la empresa, y cuanto más estacionaria sea la actividad de la empresa, más volátil y errático podrá ser su comportamiento.

No obstante, un corolario a extraer de este gráfico y de las empresas estacionarias, es que esta estacionalidad se comporta en predecible en los años (sabemos cuándo tendremos la estacionalidad) y esto nos permite planificar cómo cubrir el gap entre las NOF y el FM cada ejercicio económico.

Entrando en 1991, este gap entre las NOF y el FM no es constante ni proporcional a lo largo de la previsión del ejercicio 1991. Al ser las ventas estacionarias, el crecimiento también lo es y los requerimientos y el gap entre las NOF y el FM fluctúa, permaneciendo prácticamente estable y coincidente entre los meses de febrero y agosto, mientras que a partir de este mes de agosto y hasta enero del siguiente ejercicio el gap crece y toma sus máximos valores.

Este descubrimiento nos permite comprobar que la necesidad de fondos ajenos para cubrir las NOF que no puede cubrir el FM varía entre los distintos meses, siendo nulo o casi nulo durante un semestre del año (enero – agosto) y tomando su máximo valor entre los meses de noviembre a diciembre.

Con esta premisa, continuemos analizando el balance de la sociedad

| | | |Prev. 1991 |% medio de |
| | | | |crecimiento |
| | |1990 | | |
|NOF | |2.998 |3.441 |14,8% |
|FM | |2.268 |2.511 |10,7% |
|NOF - FM (NOF > FM) | |730 |930 |27,4% |
| | | | | |
|Días de promedio de cobro | |60 días |60 días | |
|Días promedio de existencias | |5 días |5 días | |
|Días de promedio de pago | |30 días |30 días | |
|Días de promedio de caja | |41,1 |49,8 | |

Observamos que el crecimiento de la sociedad no ha comportado incremento en los días promedio de existencias, que se mantiene 530 usd. (aproximadamente 1 semana de ventas de plena temporada), tampoco varía demasiado los plazos de pago a proveedores en días ni los días de cobro a clientes cuyo saldo es exactamente las ventas de los últimos 60 días.

Con ello, los incrementos acaecidos en las NOF se corresponden por el crecimiento en ventas de la sociedad y no por un comportamiento más laxo de los departamentos de cuentas a pagar o cuantas a cobrar.

Así pues, y comprobando que el FM es positivo y creciente en los años 1990 y en la previsión de 1991, podemos concluir que el problema financiero no es estructura. Así pues, nos queda por determinar que el problema que Play Time Toy Co. Tiene es un problema financiero operacional debido al constante e importante crecimiento de las NOF por encima del propio FM lo que repercute en la necesidad de buscar fondos externos a la empresa para poder hacer frente a este incremento de las necesidades de fondos.

Así pues, NOS ENCONTRAMOS ANTE UN PROBLEMA FINANCIERO DE TIPO OPERATIVO DEBIDO A UN CRECIMIENTO DE LA EMPRESA SUPERIOR A SU SENDA DE CRECIMIENTO ESTABLE.

Cambio a producción uniforme

3. Consecuencias económicas de la producción uniforme. Hacer la cuenta de resultados provisional con producción uniforme, según la hipótesis del caso. ¿Merece la pena el cambio a producción uniforme?

Para describir las consecuencias económicas de la producción uniforme, apoyémonos en la cuenta de resultados previsional para este ejercicio económico 1991 con dicho sistema, y posteriormente comparemos los resultados con los conseguidos con la producción actual estacionaria.

| |Total año |Total año |
| |prod. ESTACIONARIA |prod. UNIFORME |
| | | |
|Ventas |9.000 |9.000 |
|Coste de las mercancías vendidas |6.300 |5.865 |
|Margen bruto |2.700 |3.135 |
|Gastos operativos, prod. estacional |2.256 |2.256 |
|Mayores gastos de almacenaje |0 |100 |
|Resultado antes de impuestos |444 |779 |
|Impuestos al 34% |151 |265 |
|Resultado después de impuestos |293 |514 |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
|previsión estacionaria ventas. 1991 |
| | |Prev. 1991 |
| |1990 | |
|Crecimiento de las ventas |24,9% |21,1% |
|Margen Bruto (% sobre ventas) |30,0% |30,0% |
|Rentabilidad sobre ventas (ROS) |3,3% |3,3% |
|Rentabilidad sobre Recursos Propios |8,3% |9,1% |
| | | |
|Senda de crecimiento sostenible |8,3% |9,1% |
| | | |
| | | |
|previsión UNIFORME ventas. 1991 |
| | |Prev. 1991 |
| |1990 | |
|Crecimiento de las ventas |24,9% |21,1% |
|Margen Bruto (% sobre ventas) |30,0% |34,8% |
|Rentabilidad sobre ventas (ROS) |3,3% |5,7% |
|Rentabilidad sobre Recursos Propios |8,3% |14,9% |
| | | |
|Senda de crecimiento sostenible |8,3% |14,9% |

En la primera variable que nos fijamos es en los beneficios, ¿Existen beneficios?. En este sentido cabe constatar que cualquiera de los métodos de producción considerados obtenemos beneficios positivos, pero ¿Es superior el beneficio en alguno de los distintos sistemas productivos? Ante esta consideración, una observación de las cuentas de resultados arroja un importante diferencial en los beneficios entre las dos alternativas. Producir ordenadamente, sin estacionalidades conlleva, en este caso concreto, a un importante crecimiento tanto del Margen Bruto (que pasa del 30% al 34,8%) y de los beneficios netos (después de impuestos) cuya orden de magnitud absoluta pasa de los 293 usd a los 513 usd. Esto conlleva un incremento de la Rentabilidad sobre ventas (ROS) del 3,3% en el caso de estacionalidad al 5,7% en el caso de la producción ordenada. De idéntica manera se comporta la rentabilidad sobre recursos propios, que pasa de un 9,1% a un 14,9%.

Un dato muy importante es que este efecto de la producción ordenada conlleva en la empresa un crecimiento de la senda de crecimiento estable para la empresa, es decir, en el caso de una producción ordenada, el % de crecimiento que no alteraría la estructura de deudas de la empresa es del 14,9% mientras que la misma empresa con un crecimiento de ventas idéntico reduce su senda al 9,1%.

En conclusión. Producir ordenadamente a conllevado (dentro del mundo de la rentabilidad) un incremento importante del Margen Bruto, de la Rentabilidad sobre Ventas, de la Rentabilidad sobre Recursos Propios, de los propios Beneficios Netos y un incremento de la capacidad de crecimiento dentro de la propia senda estable de la empresa. Parece pues que ha sido muy beneficioso el cambio (hasta estos mementos y analizando únicamente la cuenta de resultados).

4. Consecuencias financieras de la producción uniforme. Elaborar los balances mensuales con producción uniforme. Sólo cambian algunas partidas, entre ellas existencias e impuestos. Así se conocerá el crédito necesario mes a mes. Analizar este balance y compararlo con el de la producción estacional.

Veamos qué ha sucedido en el balance de la empresa:

| |Total año |Total año |
| |prod. ESTACIONARIA |prod. UNIFORME |
| | | |
|ACTIVO | | |
|Caja |175 |175 |
|Clientes |3.063 |3.063 |
|Existencias |530 |531 |
|Activo circulante |3.768 |3.769 |
|Activo inmovilizado |1.070 |1.070 |
|Total activo |4.838 |4.839 |
| | | |
|PASIVO | | |
|Crédito bancario |302 |623 |
|Proveedores |880 |225 |
|Impuestos |25 |139 |
|Parte corto deuda largo |50 |50 |
|Exigible a corto |1.257 |1.037 |
|Deuda largo plazo |350 |350 |
|Fondos propios |3.231 |3.452 |
|Total pasivo |4.838 |4.839 |
| | | |

|PRODUCCIÓN UNIFORME PREVISTA 1991 |
| |
| |

|31-dic | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1990 |Ene |Feb |Mar |Abr |May |Jun |Jul |Ago |Set |Oct |Nov |Dic | |total | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |NOF |2.998 |2.896 |2.797 |2.702 |2.613 |3.053 |3.545 |4.011 |4.779 |5.601 |5.141 |4.513 |3.405 | |48.053 | |FM |2.268 |2.166 |2.067 |1.971 |1.870 |1.767 |1.663 |1.563 |1.766 |2.015 |2.329 |2.676 |2.732 | |26.854 | |NOF-FM (déficit de fondos) |730 |730 |730 |730 |743 |1.285 |1.882 |2.448 |3.013 |3.586 |2.811 |1.836 |673 | |21.198 | |Créditos a corto plazo |730 |730 |730 |730 |743 |1.285 |1.882 |2.448 |3.013 |3.586 |2.811 |1.836 |673 | |21.197 | |Excesos/déficit |0 |0 |-0 |0 |-0 |0 |-0 |0 |0 |-0 |0 |0 |-0 | |1 | |

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Podemos observar que el mes donde mayor esfuerzo crediticio incurre la empresa es en septiembre, donde las necesidades de fondos a corto palzo ascenderían a cerca de $ 3.600

No obstante, la empresa tiene capacidad de dejar la línea cancelada (requisito bancario para la ampliación) dado que tiene liquidez en tesorería suficiente. Veamos el saldo de la cuenta de tesorería en el sistema de producción uniforme:

|31-dic | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1990 |Ene |Feb |Mar |Abr |May |Jun |Jul |Ago |Set |Oct |Nov |Dic | |ACTIVO | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |Caja |175 |1.243 |1.410 |754 |175 |175 |175 |175 |175 |175 |175 |175 |175 | |

En los meses de enero y febrero la empresa puede cumplir el requisito bancario de dejar cancelada (sin disponer) la línea de crédito y, a su vez, la empresa puede cumplir con su máxima de no reducir los fondos de su tesorería por debajo de 175.

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Should Video Games Become A Sport?

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