...THE B L A C K SWAN The HIGHLY I mpact IM of the PROBABLE Nassim Nicholas Taleb U.S.A. $26.95 Canada $34.95 is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpre dictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9 / 1 1 . For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. A BLACK SWAN Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate oppor tunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool our selves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this reve latory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers...
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...CONTE NTS Introduction 1 WHY YOU SHOULD VISIT CEMETERIES: Survivorship Bias 2 DOES HARVARD MAKE YOU SMARTER?: Swimmer’s Body Illusion 3 WHY YOU SEE SHAPES IN THE CLOUDS: Clustering Illusion 4 IF 50 MILLION PEOPLE SAY SOMETHING FOOLISH, IT IS STILL FOOLISH: Social Proof 5 WHY YOU SHOULD FORGET THE PAST: Sunk Cost Fallacy 6 DON’T ACCEPT FREE DRINKS: Reciprocity 7 BEWARE THE ‘SPECIAL CASE’: Confirmation Bias (Part 1) 8 MURDER YOUR DARLINGS: Confirmation Bias (Part 2) 9 DON’T BOW TO AUTHORITY: Authority Bias 10 LEAVE YOUR SUPERMODEL FRIENDS AT HOME: Contrast Effect 11 WHY WE PREFER A WRONG MAP TO NO MAP AT ALL: Availability Bias 12 WHY ‘NO PAIN, NO GAIN’ SHOULD SET ALARM BELLS RINGING: The It’llGet-Worse-Before-It-Gets-Better Fallacy 13 EVEN TRUE STORIES ARE FAIRYTALES: Story Bias 14 WHY YOU SHOULD KEEP A DIARY: Hindsight Bias 15 WHY YOU SYSTEMATICALLY OVERESTIMATE YOUR KNOWLEDGE AND ABILITIES: Overconfidence Effect 16 DON’T TAKE NEWS ANCHORS SERIOUSLY: Chauffeur Knowledge 17 YOU CONTROL LESS THAN YOU THINK: Illusion of Control 18 NEVER PAY YOUR LAWYER BY THE HOUR: Incentive Super-Response Tendency 19 THE DUBIOUS EFFICACY OF DOCTORS, CONSULTANTS AND PSYCHOTHERAPISTS: Regression to Mean 20 NEVER JUDGE A DECISION BY ITS OUTCOME: Outcome Bias 21 LESS IS MORE: The Paradox of Choice 22 YOU LIKE ME, YOU REALLY REALLY LIKE ME: Liking Bias 23 DON’T CLING TO THINGS: Endowment Effect 24 THE INEVITABILITY OF UNLIKELY Events: Coincidence 25 THE CALAMITY OF CONFORMITY: Groupthink 26 WHY...
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...MIDNIGHT SUN Edward's Story Stephenie Meyer 2 Daftar Isi 1. Pandangan Pertama 2. Buku yang Terbuka 3. Fenomena 4. Penglihatan 5. Undangan 6. Golongan Darah 7. Melody 8. Hantu 9. Port Angeles 10. Teori 11. Interogasi 12. Kesulitan 3 1. P a n d a n g a n P e r t a m a Inilah saat dimana aku berharap bisa tidur. Sekolah. Atau, penyiksaan lebih tepatnya? Seandainya ada jal an lain menebus dosa-dosaku. Kejenuhan ini selalu sulit diatasi; setiap hari terasa lebih monoton dari sebelumny a. M u n g k i n b a g i k u i n i l a h ‘t i d u r ‘ j i k a d i d e f i n i s i k a n s e b a gai bentuk berdiam diri disela aktivitas harian. Aku menatap rekahan di pojok kafetaria, membayang kan bentuk-bentuk abstrak. Itu salah satu cara memelank an suara-suara riuh di kepalaku. Beratus suara ini membuatku mati kebosanan. Jika menyangut pikiran manusia, aku telah mendeng ar segalanya, dan lagi, hingga ratusan kali. Hari ini, se mua tercurah pada sebuah peristiwa sepele, kedatangan s eorang murid pindahan. Tidak terlalu sulit menyimpulka n pikiran-pikiran itu sekaligus. Aku telah melihat sosok nya berulang-ulang, dari pikiran ke pikiran, dari segala sudut. Cuma perempuan biasa. Kegemparan akibat kedata ngannya mudah ditebakµsama seperti menunjukan benda berkilau pada anak kecil. Setengah laki-laki hidung bela ng bahkan sudah ingin bermeseraan dengannya, hanya kar ena ia anak baru. Aku mesti lebih keras mengacuhkan me reka. Hanya empat suara yang coba kuredam demi kesopan an dan...
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...Fourth Edition Reframing Organizations Artistry, Choice, and Leadership LEE G. BOLMAN TERRENCE E. DEAL B est- se l l i n g a u t h o rs of LEADING WITH SOUL FOURTH EDITION Reframing Organizations Artistry, Choice, and Leadership Lee G. Bolman • Terrence E. Deal Copyright © 2008 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Published by Jossey-Bass A Wiley Imprint 989 Market Street, San Francisco, CA 94103-1741—www.josseybass.com No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400, fax 978-6468600, or on the Web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, 201-7486011, fax 201-748-6008, or online at www.wiley.com/go/permissions. Credits are on page 528. Readers should be aware that Internet Web sites offered as citations and/or sources for further information may have changed or disappeared between the time this was written and when it is read. Limit of Liability/Disclaimer...
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...EDITOR'S INTRODUCTION Two big events will frame the year ahead: America’s presidential election and the summer Olympic games in Beijing. The race for the White House will be a marathon, from the front-loaded primary season in January and February to the general election in November. The betting is that the winner will be a Democrat—with a strong chance that a Clinton will again be set to succeed a Bush as leader of the free world. China, meanwhile, will hope to use the Olympics to show the world what a splendid giant it has become. It will win the most gold medals, and bask in national pride and the global limelight. But it will also face awkward questions on its repressive politics. America and China will be prime players in the matters that will concentrate minds around the world in 2008. One of these is the world economy, which can no longer depend on America, with its housing and credit woes, to drive growth. America should—just—avoid recession, but it will be China (for the first time the biggest contributor to global growth) along with India and other emerging markets that will shine. Another focus of attention will be climate change. As China replaces America as the world’s biggest producer of greenhouse gases, serious efforts on global warming depend on the serious involvement of those two countries. If 2007 was the year when this rose to the top of the global agenda, in 2008 people will expect action. It is striking that green is a theme that links all the contributions...
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...Foreword 11 How Keen Is Your Observation? 13 Does what you see register in your mind? Which light is on top of the traffic light? Is the number six on your watch dial, the Arabic #6 or is it the Roman #VI? Other observation questions. The importance of observation in memory. Habit Is Memory 20 There is no such thing as a poor memory, only a trained or untrained one. There is no limit to the capacity of the memory. Lucius Scipio was able to remember the names of all the people of Rome; Seneca could memorize and repeat two thousand words after hearing them once. Test Your Memory 24 If you can remember any one thing by association, you can do it with anything else. A series of tests for you to take now to indicate how limited your untrained memory is. Interest in Memory 32 The first step is to be interested in remembering names, faces, dates, figures, facts—anything, and that you have confidence in your ability to retrain them. Link Method of Memory 39 What the Link Method is. Use this method of associating ridiculous mental images with items you want to remember. Start to remember as you've never remembered before. Peg System of Memory 48 The Peg System helps you associate and remember numbers. You can learn to remember 52 items by number, in and out of order. Uses of the Peg and Link Systems 60 Start with remembering a Shopping List and Daily Errands. From this you will go on to more difficult feats. How to Train Your Observation 66 ...
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...500 extraordinary islands G R E E N L A N D Beaufort Sea Baffin Bay vi Da i tra sS t a nm De it Stra rk Hudson Bay Gulf of Alaska Vancouver Portland C A N A D A Calgary Winnipeg Newfoundland Quebec Minneapolis UNITED STATES San Francisco Los Angeles San Diego Phoenix Dallas Ottawa Montreal ChicagoDetroitToronto Boston New York OF AMERICA Philadelphia Washington DC St. Louis Atlanta New Orleans Houston Monterrey NORTH AT L A N T I C OCEAN MEXICO Guadalajara Mexico City Gulf of Mexico Miami Havana CUBA GUATEMALA HONDURAS b e a n Sea EL SALVADOR NICARAGUA Managua BAHAMAS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC JAMAICA San Juan HAITI BELIZE C a r PUERTO RICO ib TRINIDAD & Caracas N TOBAGO A COSTA RICA IA M PANAMA VENEZUELA UYANRINA H GU C U G Medellín A PAC I F I C OCEAN Galapagos Islands COLOMBIA ECUADOR Bogotá Cali S FR EN Belém Recife Lima BR A Z I L PERU La Paz Brasélia Salvador Belo Horizonte Rio de Janeiro ~ Sao Paulo BOLIVIA PARAGUAY CHILE Cordoba Santiago Pôrto Alegre URUGUAY Montevideo Buenos Aires ARGENTINA FALKLAND/MALVINAS ISLANDS South Georgia extraordinary islands 1st Edition 500 By Julie Duchaine, Holly Hughes, Alexis Lipsitz Flippin, and Sylvie Murphy Contents Chapter 1 Beachcomber Islands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Aquatic Playgrounds 2 Island Hopping the Turks & Caicos: Barefoot Luxury 12 Life’s a Beach 14 Unvarnished & Unspoiled 21 Sailing...
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...GLENCOE LANGUAGE ARTS Grammar and Language Workbook G RADE 9 Glencoe/McGraw-Hill Copyright © by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Except as permitted under the United States Copyright Act of 1976, no part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher. Send all inquiries to: Glencoe/McGraw-Hill 936 Eastwind Drive Westerville, Ohio 43081 ISBN 0-02-818294-4 Printed in the United States of America 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 024 03 02 01 00 99 Contents Handbook of Definitions and Rules .........................1 Troubleshooter ........................................................21 Part 1 Grammar ......................................................45 Unit 1 Parts of Speech 1.1 Nouns: Singular, Plural, and Collective ....47 1.2 Nouns: Proper and Common; Concrete and Abstract.................................49 1.3 Pronouns: Personal and Possessive; Reflexive and Intensive...............................51 1.4 Pronouns: Interrogative and Relative; Demonstrative and Indefinite .....................53 1.5 Verbs: Action (Transitive/Intransitive) ......55 1.6 Verbs: Linking .............................................57 1.7 Verb Phrases ................................................59 1.8 Adjectives ....................................................61 1.9 Adverbs........................................................63 1.10 Prepositions...
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...Exercises Articles Articles: a/an PEG 1-4 Insert a or an if necessary. 1 My neighbour is . . . photographer; let's ask him for . . . advice about colour films. 2 We had . . . fish and . . . chips for . . . lunch. ~ That doesn't sound . . . very interesting lunch. 3 I had . . . very bad night; I didn't sleep . . . wink. 4 He is . . . vegetarian; you won't get . . . meat at his house. He'll give you . . . nut cutlet. ~Last time I had . . . nut cutlet I had . . . indigestion. 5 . . . travel agent would give you . . . information about . . . hotels. 6 We'd better go by . . . taxi—if we can get . . . taxi at such . . . hour as 2 a.m. 7 . . . person who suffers from . . . claustrophobia has . . . dread of being confined in . . . small space, and would always prefer . . . stairs to . . . lift. 8 Do you take . . . sugar in . . . coffee? ~ I used to, but now I'm on . . . diet. I'm trying to lose . . . weight. 9 . . . man suffering from . . . shock should not be given anything to drink. 10 You'll get . . . shock if you touch . . . live wire with that screwdriver. Why don't you get . . . screwdriver with . . . insulated handle? 11 It costs fifty-five and . . . half pence and I've only got . . . fifty pence piece. ~ You can pay by . . . cheque here. ~ But can I write . . . cheque for . . . fifty-five and . . . half pence? 12 . . . Mr Smith is . . . old customer and . . . honest man. ~ Why do you say that? Has he been accused of . . . dishonesty...
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...Acclaim for Yann Martel's Life of Pi "Life of Pi is not just a readable and engaging novel, it's a finely twisted length of yarn— yarn implying a far-fetched story you can't quite swallow whole, but can't dismiss outright. Life of Pi is in this tradition—a story of uncertain veracity, made credible by the art of the yarn-spinner. Like its noteworthy ancestors, among which I take to be Robinson Crusoe, Gulliver's Travels, the Ancient Mariner, Moby Dick and Pincher Martin, it's a tale of disaster at sea coupled with miraculous survival—a boys' adventure for grownups." —Margaret Atwood, The Sunday Times (London) "A fabulous romp through an imagination by turns ecstatic, cunning, despairing and resilient, this novel is an impressive achievement. . . . Martel displays the clever voice and tremendous storytelling skills of an emerging master." —Publisher's Weekly (starred review) "[Life of Pi] has a buoyant, exotic, insistence reminiscent of Edgar Allen Poe's most Gothic fiction. . . . Oddities abound and the storytelling is first-rate. Yann Martel has written a novel full of grisly reality, outlandish plot, inventive setting and thought-provoking questions about the value and purpose of fiction." —The Edmonton journal "Martel's ceaselessly clever writing . . . [and] artful, occasionally hilarious, internal dialogue . . . make a fine argument for the divinity of good art." —The Gazette "Astounding and beautiful. . . . The book is a pleasure not only for the subtleties of its philosophy...
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...cover next page > title author publisher isbn10 | asin print isbn13 ebook isbn13 language subject publication date lcc ddc subject : : : : : : : : : : : cover next page > < previous page page_i next page > Page i 1100 Words You Need to Know Fourth Edition Murray Bromberg Principal Emeritus Andrew Jackson High School, Queens, New York Melvin Gordon Reading Specialist New York City Schools . . . Invest fifteen minutes a day for forty-six weeks in order to master 920 new words and almost 200 useful idioms < previous page page_i next page > < previous page page_ii next page > Page ii © Copyright 2000 by Barron's Educational Series, Inc. Prior edition © Copyright 1993, 1987, 1971 by Barron's Educational Series, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form, by photostat, microfilm, xerography, or any other means, or incorporated into any information retrieval system, electronic or mechanical, without the written permission of the copyright owner. All inquiries should be addressed to: Barron's Educational Series, Inc. 250 Wireless Boulevard Hauppauge, NY 11788 http://www.barronseduc.com Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 00-030344 International Standard Book Number 0-7641-1365-8 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Bromberg, Murray. 1100 words you need to know / Murray Bromberg, Melvin Gordon. p. cm. Includes index. ISBN 0-7641-1365-8 1. Vocabulary. I. Title: Eleven hundred words you need...
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...managing NOW! Gary Dessler Florida International University Jean Phillips Rutgers University Houghton Mifflin Company Boston New York To Samantha Vice President, Executive Publisher: George Hoffman Executive Sponsoring Editor: Lisé Johnson Senior Marketing Manager: Nicole Hamm Development Editor: Julia Perez Cover Design Manager: Anne S. Katzeff Senior Photo Editor: Jennifer Meyer Dare Senior Project Editor: Nancy Blodget Editorial Assistant: Jill Clark Art and Design Manager: Jill Haber Senior Composition Buyer: Chuck Dutton Cover photo credits Main image: © Bryan F. Peterson/CORBIS Lower left image: © Stockbyte/Getty Images Lower right image: © David Oliver/Getty Images Additional photo credits are listed on page 516. Copyright © 2008 by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage or retrieval system without the prior written permission of Houghton Mifflin Company unless such copying is expressly permitted by federal copyright law. Address inquiries to College Permissions, Houghton Mifflin Company, 222 Berkeley Street, Boston, MA 02116-3764. Printed in the U.S.A. Library of Congress Control Number: 2007924351 Instructor’s exam copy : ISBN-13: 978-0-618-83347-4 ISBN-10: 0-618-83347-1 For orders, use student text ISBNs: ISBN-13: 978-0-618-74163-2 ISBN-10: 0-618-74163-1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7...
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...Life of Chopin PREFACE To a people, always prompt in its recognition of genius, and ready to sympathize in the joys and woes of a truly great artist, this work will be one of exceeding interest. It is a short, glowing, and generous sketch, from the hand of Franz Liszt, (who, considered in the double light of composer and performer, has no living equal,) of the original and romantic Chopin; the most ethereal, subtle, and delicate among our modern tone-poets. It is a rare thing for a great artist to write on art, to leave the passionate worlds of sounds or colors for the colder realm of words; rarer still for him to abdicate, even temporarily, his own throne, to stand patiently and hold aloft the blazing torch of his own genius, to illume the gloomy grave of another: yet this has Liszt done through love for Chopin. It is a matter of considerable interest to note how the nervous and agile fingers, accustomed to sovereign rule over the keys, handle the pen; how the musician feels as a man; how he estimates art and artists. Liszt is a man of extensive culture, vivid imagination, and great knowledge of the world; and, in addition to their high artistic value, his lines glow with poetic fervor, with impassioned eloquence. His musical criticisms are refined and acute, but without repulsive technicalities or scientific terms, ever sparkling with the poetic ardor of the generous soul through which the discriminating, yet appreciative awards were poured. Ah! in these days of degenerate...
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...Download GRE Big Book Word List GRE Big Book Word List abase v. To lower in position, estimation, or the like; degrade. abbess n. The lady superior of a nunnery. abbey n. The group of buildings which collectively form the dwelling-place of a society of monks or nuns. abbot n. The superior of a community of monks. abdicate v. To give up (royal power or the like). abdomen n. In mammals, the visceral cavity between the diaphragm and the pelvic floor; the belly. abdominal n. Of, pertaining to, or situated on the abdomen. abduction n. A carrying away of a person against his will, or illegally. abed adv. In bed; on a bed. aberration n. Deviation from a right, customary, or prescribed course. abet v. To aid, promote, or encourage the commission of (an offense). abeyance n. A state of suspension or temporary inaction. abhorrence n. The act of detesting extremely. abhorrent adj. Very repugnant; hateful. abidance n. An abiding. abject adj. Sunk to a low condition. abjure v. To recant, renounce, repudiate under oath. able-bodied adj. Competent for physical service. ablution n. A washing or cleansing, especially of the body. abnegate v. To renounce (a right or privilege). abnormal adj. Not conformed to the ordinary rule or standard. abominable adj. Very hateful. abominate v. To hate violently. abomination n. A very detestable act or practice. aboriginal adj. Primitive; unsophisticated. aborigines n. The original of earliest known inhabitants of a country. http://www.testsworld.com/gre-word-list...
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...Download GRE Big Book Word List GRE Big Book Word List abase v. To lower in position, estimation, or the like; degrade. abbess n. The lady superior of a nunnery. abbey n. The group of buildings which collectively form the dwelling-place of a society of monks or nuns. abbot n. The superior of a community of monks. abdicate v. To give up (royal power or the like). abdomen n. In mammals, the visceral cavity between the diaphragm and the pelvic floor; the belly. abdominal n. Of, pertaining to, or situated on the abdomen. abduction n. A carrying away of a person against his will, or illegally. abed adv. In bed; on a bed. aberration n. Deviation from a right, customary, or prescribed course. abet v. To aid, promote, or encourage the commission of (an offense). abeyance n. A state of suspension or temporary inaction. abhorrence n. The act of detesting extremely. abhorrent adj. Very repugnant; hateful. abidance n. An abiding. abject adj. Sunk to a low condition. abjure v. To recant, renounce, repudiate under oath. able-bodied adj. Competent for physical service. ablution n. A washing or cleansing, especially of the body. abnegate v. To renounce (a right or privilege). abnormal adj. Not conformed to the ordinary rule or standard. abominable adj. Very hateful. abominate v. To hate violently. abomination n. A very detestable act or practice. aboriginal adj. Primitive; unsophisticated. aborigines n. The original of earliest known inhabitants of a country. http://www...
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