中国城市化进程与
城市化进行政策

上海对外经贸大学 姓名：阮氏厚
学号：LY120005
专业：国贸

摘要
城市化又称城镇化或都市化，是指农村人口向城市人口转变的过程，或人口由农村域向城市区域集中地过程，以及由此带来的各种变化。
城市化是经济社会发展的必然趋势。在未来的二十年的时间里，中国将从一个农民为主体的社会变成一个市场为主体的社会。整个社会将经历一场改变生产方式、生活方式、思维方式和转变管理观念的一些列深刻改革；同时，居民生活状况、社会心理和价值观念将有实质性改变。这不仅涉及社会经济问题，也涉及资源环境问题，其牵涉范围之广，影响之深远在人类历史上的空前的。在“城乡二元结构”十分明显的中国，加速城市化发展是目前的客观要求。
本文用S 曲线来提出世界各国城市化特点，特别是美、英、日；同时指出中国城市化特点。从协整模型关系、误差修正模型以及预测方差分解等方法，本文发现中国经济增长对城市化的影响强于其对经济增长的影响。城市化对中国具有重要作用的同时是一些负面影响。从而，采取合理对策，避免走入误区。
关键词：城市化；经济增长；协整模型关系；误差修正模型；预测方差分解；进行政策

Abstract Urbanization is defined as a process that population migrated from countryside to cities or a process that the population centralized from rural area to towns, accompanied with all kinds of changes. Urbanization followed a tide that economy and society developed. In the following 20 years, China will change from such a society that population in villages account for the principal part to a society that residents lived in the cities become a majority of the Chinese population. All the society will experience a profound change including the mode of production, the way of life, the thinking style and the transform of management ideas and so on. Meanwhile, the inhabitant life state, social psychology and the sense of value would be altered virtually, which not only concerns the society problems of economics, but also involves the resources problems of circumstances. It is unprecedented in human being history that it involved greatly and affected profoundly. China is a country in which “the dual structure between urban and rural” is apparent. So it’s an objective demand to accelerate the development of urbanization. The article uses the S-curve mode to propose the World Urbanization countries, especially the United States, Britain, Japan; also pointed out that China's urbanization Features. From the cointegration relationship,