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Us Persons Employed in Educational Administrative Services

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US Persons Employed in Educational Administrative Services

Introduction:
Using historical data, predictions were made using Crystal Ball Predicator for persons employed in educational administrative services in the United States. The predictions were made by comparing the total number of persons in the US workforce, the number of men, and the number of women in educational services. The data set analyzed for Crystal Ball Predictor is comprised of historical data provided by the United States Census Bureau. The ranges of dates for the data begin in 2000 and ended in the year 2010. Respectively, the predictions began in 2011 and ended in 2020.
The charts provided in this summary were generated by a report within Crystal Ball Predictor. Additional historical information and more recent data were gathered from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. The writer of this summary compared the Crystal Ball predictions with predictions provided by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. While the percentages of the Crystal Ball Predictor slightly varied, the Crystal Ball Predictor and United States Bureau of Labor Statistics predictions provided similar conclusions.

Crystal Ball Predictor and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics
(How do they compare)

Female compared to Males in Education Services
The data set suggest that there are more female educational administrators compared to men, however, the data also suggest that the male population is steadily growing. Compared to males, the Crystal Ball predictor forecast suggest that the growth for female educational administrators varies substantially. Comparatively speaking, the number of female professionals in education declines every two or three years. Conversely, the number of male educational administrators steadily increases with very little or no decline in growth.

The factors that contribute to the fluctuation of growth for female educational professionals is not disclosed with the data set and can only be speculated without further research. Howbeit, according to Crystal Ball Predictor, even with the fluctuating growth, the number of female administrators will make up to sixty-four percent of the total population of educational administrators by 2020. The data summarized by Crystal Ball Predictor appears to in line with data provided by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. Historically, the number of females in administrative positions has been high compared to males and the growth will continue.
Proportionally, there are still more females employed as educational administrators. According to information provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the educational administrative field continues to grow and in some cases more rapidly than other areas of employment. This rapid growth could contribute to the increased number of females employed as educational professionals. Barbara Wootton, a former economist for the Division of Labor Force Statistics suggests that women are highly over-represented in administrative and service positions. Wootton further suggest that the expanding growth of the administrative and service positions contributes to the high number of females in those occupations as while as others. “Women generally have moved most rapidly into those occupational groups in which employment has been expanding over the past two decades. This is not surprising; because there is a greater demand for workers in faster growing occupations, growth could lower barriers to entry, such as gender discrimination” (Wootton 1997). More recent data provided by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts and increased growth of administrative positions in the field of education. The US labor force in both private and public educational services is predicted to grow by fourteen percent.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts about 1.8 million new jobs in educational services are expected between 2010 and 2020. The increased student enrollments at all levels of education are expected to create greater demand for educational services in the public and private sector. A more diverse US workforce will result in more female workers to help meet the predicted demand of educational services in the upcoming years. An additional factor increasing the demand for educational services is the growing number of individuals seeking higher education to meet the challenge of a more competitive workforce.
Crystal Ball Predictor further suggest that despite the growth of women as educational administrators, the total population of women in the workforce remains less than the total population of male workers. According to Crystal Ball Predictor, the number of female workers will remain in the forty percentile range and by 2020 forty-six percent of the total workforce will be comprised of female workers.

Additional Information provided by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics suggest that despite the difference in the total number women and men, by 2020 the growth of women in the work force will grow faster compared to the growth of male workers. Between 2010 and 2020 the male labor force is expected to grow by 6.3 percent compared with 7.4 percent for the female labor force. A more diverse work force could be one of the contributing factors for the higher increase of female workers. As mentioned in the previous section of the summary, the United States labor force is becoming more diversified according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
No doubt, there will be significant growth of female workers in the US labor force. However, according to statistics published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, female workers will account for forty-seven percent of the US labor force. The Crystal Ball Predictor percentages are slightly different from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, comparatively, Crystal Ball Predictor appears to be reliable. The different percentages could vary due to updated information that was not readily available. The historical data set used by Crystal Ball Predictor began in 2000 and ended in 2010, while the information from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics included more recent data and historical information.
Crystal Ball Methods Table
A methods table was generated using Crystal Ball Predictor which summarizes the different methods used by Crystal Ball Predictor for forecasting. Crystal Ball Predictor ranks the forecasting methods by using the square root of the mean square error or RMSE. Additionally, the methods are ranked by the lowest RMSE. Concerning the data set used for this project, Crystal Ball Predictor selected ARIMA (0, 1, 1) or Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average as the best forecasting method since it had the lowest RMSE compared to the other forecasting methods (Evans 2010).
Theil’s U statistic is an additional tool used to determine the validity of the best forecasting method used Crystal Ball Predictor. “Theil’s U statistic is a relative error measure that compares the results with a naïve forecast” (Evans 2010). The Theil’s U Statistic is briefly summarized as following; * The forecasting method is better than guessing with a value less than one * The forecasting method is as good as guessing with a value equal to one * The forecasting method is worst than guessing with a value greater than one
According to the Method’s Table provided by Crystal Ball Predictor, the ARIMA method has a Theil’s U Statistic value of 0.8374 and is better than guessing. Thus, when compared to the other forecasting method’s the ARIMA method appears to be the best forecasting method for this data set.

One additional observation regarding the total workforce population seems appropriate to mention. The historical data includes the US recession during 2009 and shows a significant decrease in employment for the total workforce for both men and women at end of 2008. Crystal Ball Predictor further indicates a continued drop in employment through 2013 and predicts an improvement in the workforce sometime during 2014 (See Chart on Page 9).
An employment outlook published by Mitra Toossi for the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reflects a prediction similar to Crystal Ball Predictor. “The recession of 2007–2009, a sluggish labor market, crises in the financial and credit markets, and weakness in the housing sector have combined to create great uncertainty about the future of the U.S. economy and labor market” (Toossi, 2012). Toossi further suggest that the US labor force will grow; however, the growth will not be as rapid as previous years.

Conclusion
Comparatively, Crystal Ball Predictor seems to provide reliable predictions. While the percentages were slightly different when compared to the reports provided by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the predictions appear to provide the same summary. The United States labor force is growing but not at the accelerated rate of previous years. Additional, the percentage of female workers in educational services will continue to be higher than men. Howbeit, the total number of women in the US Labor force will continue to be lower compared to men through 2020. Perhaps the percentages will change as the United States labor force becomes more diverse.

References: * Statistics, Data Analysis, and Decision Modeling, Fourth Edition, J. Evans 2010 * United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/home.htm * Gender differences in occupational employment, B. Wootton, 1997 * Employment outlook: 2010–2020, Labor force projections to 2020: a more slowly growing workforce, M. Toossi 2012

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