Using named examples, assess the extent to which conflict over water supplies is inevitable.

On Earth, we have many valuable resources and none are more valuable than water which unfortunately is limited in some places more than others. Everyone believes that they have an equal right and due to this, conflict is likely break out around the world. However, conflict is far more likely in countries that are less developed as they depend upon water for agriculture and their livelihoods.
One area where conflict has the potential to occur is in China. They are currently attempting a water transfer scheme on a large scale that plans to move water from the South to the North of China where the capital is located. This is due to the lack of water present in the North and the possibility of being able to irrigate more land. The scheme is estimated to cost a minimum of $62 billion for the movement of 44.8 billion metres cubed of water from the Yangtze River to the Yellow river basin. Surprisingly, China only has access to 6% of the worlds fresh water supply which is leaving 21% of the world’s population searching for more supplies. China also has a plan to take more water from the Tibetan Plateau area that is stopping rivers flowing into countries that are close by. This will allow more water to flow into the East. This is causing growing concerns in India about their future water supply as the vast majority of their water flows from this area. As a lack of water is flowing into India due to China’s doing, their relationship is likely to be quite weak and if India continue to receive poor amount of water they may have to deal with the matter. A possible solution to this issue is for China to start importing more food. China has one of the world’s fastest growing economies and because of this they could start producing more food to make the country less dependent upon agriculture and water. This would leave blocking the water supply off from India and other neighbouring countries as redundant.
Another place in which conflict could arise is in Ethiopia, North East Africa. They are currently planning a project that will provide power to a poor nation using a hydroelectric dam. The project is called the Grand Renaissance Project. The projected is estimated to cost around $4.8 billion and it will become the largest hydroelectric power plant that Africa owns. The dam itself will be situated along the Blue Nile river which feeds into the Nile River which runs through Egypt. The Ethiopian population have said that the project is actually only there to provide clean renewable energy. Despite this, the Ethiopian government feel that something far worse is happening behind the scenes. If the relationship between Africa and Egypt was to become weak, Ethiopia would have the potential to shut off Egypt’s water supply and this would inevitably lead to war because the Egyptian government would not stand by and allow their people to suffer. One solution that could be provided to this issue could be the Ethiopian government signing a policy that dictates that they can never turn the water supply that leads to Egypt. This has the potential to ease the tension of the Egyptian government and people but it is unlikely to completely resolve the issue itself.
There is also a potential for conflict to arise in Egypt. Over the past 20 years, the population of Egypt has risen from 20 to nearly 70 million and it has been predicted that this trend will continue, reaching an anticipated 120 million in the next 20 years. The distribution of people is not at all equal and because of the rapid urbanisation there has been an increase in demand for water, further exacerbating the problem for a country which is 95% desert. However, the supposed solution to this problem is the Toshka Project. It is an ambitious project to create a second Nile Valley, redirecting 10% of the country's allotment of water from the Nile via a huge irrigation scheme. It arose as part of a plan to increase the inhabitable land from 5% to 25%. Not only is there an increase in demand for water due to the rising population but also because of the agricultural sector consuming more than 85% of Egypt’s share of Nile water annually. The main issue with the Toshka project itself is that it is shrouded in secrecy because of the government. There are no figures for the spending available to the public and there are also conflicting figures regarding the success of the project so far. The scheme itself is supposed to provide equal access to the water supply however, the canal is currently 60 kilometres short of the first of the oases through which it was supposed to run, Baris. These areas would have greatly benefited from the canal because there is currently strict water management in the area that shuts the water off after 9pm. Therefore, the results of this project thus far have been rather insignificant as very few water users are benefitting from them. Although there is no conflict expressed, some could arise between the government and the farmers’ communities, depending on people’s willingness to emigrate from over-populated old lands to deep Southern and remote areas, far from their lands of origins. It is unlikely that the project will be a success and it is hard to see a solution for the current situation but some things that should have been done prior to the start of the project are stakeholder consultations and environmental analysis’s.
In conclusion, in places where there is a lack of water there is also usually a plan to introduce more water to new areas or existing ones and it will most likely come at cost for surrounding nations. In some cases, usually for poorer nation, war is likely to break out as governments do not wish for their people to suffer. However, conflict also has the ability to break out between people in the same country. Overall, if water sources are actually spread out equally and used for a purpose that keep s everyone pleased the conflict over water is unlikely to occur unless a neighbouring country become greedy.