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Chinese Income

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Submitted By annejiang
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80年代,外企开始进入中国,但当时至多只到代表处(在北京或者上海开个联络
办公室而已)的层次,或者通过合资企业的隐蔽方式在中国设厂(例如电视机显
像管厂)。这个层次上,外企本身吸纳不了多少人,至少吸纳不了多少大学生
(生产线工人可以吸纳一些)。

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1992-1995年,中国的普通人(城市职工)的收入是美国的1/40-1/50。(当时美
国的普通人月收入2000-2500美元,中国的职工收入在 300-600元人民币不等,汇
率1美元=9人民币。同理,那时台湾的普通月薪大约折合4000元人民币,香港为
15000人民币)90年代的中国,农民 工的工资(300-600元)比二线城市的干部更
高,这才是为什么从90年代初起,中国沿海能够有那么多农民工的原因。如果再
具体化一些,1988年,北 京国企服务业薪资45元人民币,1993年,北京的中国国
家外汇管理局的干部收入是每月140元固定薪资,整个中央政府已经难以发出工
资,大批人才流 失。(这才有了王绍光先生的“增强中央政府财政”的重要论
文,并从此逆转了80年代起干弱支强的格局,并为21世纪初起中国经济的全面起
飞奠定了基础。)

这个时候,外企开始在形象上大规模进入中国一线城市,并在大学生中留下印
象。最早吃螃蟹的外企,当属龙安志牵线搭桥的联合利华——它吃掉了沙市日
化,后来又吃掉了中华牙膏等日用品牌。

而此时,80年代充满了理想主义色彩——其中一个80年代早期的理想主义是发挥
中国当时已经积累的科技实力建设中国的高科技产业——的高校就业去向氛围也
开始发生变化,外企逐渐成为首选,到了90年代末更是如此。

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90年代末,21世纪初

90年代末,朱执政时期,名牌高校如果走本专业道路,要么出国,要么国内的研
究所、企业都在改制,新兴的民营、地方国有企业都还在酝酿中,如果要走就业
的 道路,谁最好?当然是外企。从21世纪初起,服务型外企,从会计事务所、律
师事务所、管理咨询公司、投资银行直到最后的外资大型私募股权公司、基金公
司依 次亮相,为北大清华学子所追捧。

最早进入中国一流高校学子耳朵的名字是四大会计事务所(在2001年安然破产之
前加上安达信,是“五大”),这不是偶然的。当时中国的国家基础——先是电
信、然后是能源(石油石化)、最后金融一个一个面临改制的问题,而且还要解
决资金问题——朱老板确定方向是到境外圈一笔钱回来,自然就需要“国际认
可”的 证书——会计、法律,最后是证券的承销,中间的改制包装还需要请“专
业”咨询团队出出主意(早期是真心实意相信咨询公司能给药方的),由于中国
这几个领域 的部门要么缺失(咨询公司)要么混乱(比如律所),要么自己都还
在改革(会计、券商),这里面哪一个离不得开外国人?会计的审计等活都是劳
动密集型的“数 字体力活”,而那几个从部委分割出来的巨型央企千头万绪,正
好提供了大量的业务需求,所以从北大清华招一批点货的人,算账的人当然是最
合适的。

90年代末到2003年,“四大”会计事务所是北大的经济院系(光华、经院)的最
重要的就业去向(2002年到2006年,是其他文科院系,如政管、社 会、法学、中
文、新闻……的学生的去向。四大的本科起薪当时是4500以上,研究生再加数
百,还算可以,但总是流传了很多超额工作、生理紊乱的恐怖传说, 而这些传说
也竟然是真的)。同时,中国一线城市也出现了一批由海归或有经验的土鳖法律
人建立的,最早目标在于服务外企进入中国的律所,我所了解的少量情况 来看,
似乎其中最著名的是方达所,这类所的公司氛围和外企毫无二致,简单的说就是
两句话要加个英文词的假洋鬼子满天飞;大概同期名声远扬的是管理咨询公司
——最著名的是麦肯锡、BCG、贝恩、罗兰贝格等,在后面是从专业公司转型的如
毕博咨询、埃森哲、IBM等,他们在北大清华扬名的时间大概从21世纪初延 续到
2005-2006年左右,本土入行职员(consultant)薪资大概在10-15万元上下。

在这时期,宝洁也在一流高校校园里流传为神话。宝洁是一家终端快速消费品企
业,它的生产是完全成熟而没有什么技术含量的,它的全球战略就是在当地设立
生产 工厂,或兼并当地的日化工厂,然后贴上宝洁的标签,用美国软实力的品牌
影响力,通过远远超出当地原有品牌能力的精密感人的营销手段进行市场覆盖,
排挤原有 品牌,从而获得利润。宝洁最需要的就是大量的营销人员、销售代表。
而北大、清华的毕业生恰好提供了素质极高的人才库。那个时候宝洁的宣讲会,
设立幸运儿选 择机制,挑中者赠送宝洁护理套装一副,放点人参啊芦荟啊什么
的,把北大清华学子(含男生)感动的热泪盈眶。那么宝洁给的薪资是多少呢?
如果我没有记错的 话,在2001年前后大概是5000元左右或者更高一些。从就业角
度,那时的“舒服职位”,就是拿着这样的薪资,派到像石家庄啊、郑州啊、武
汉啊或者保定 啊这样的二线都市作为销售代表,既消费不高,又比较清闲(凭借
宝洁的品牌威力攻城掠池),岂不爽哉?宝洁作为先锋,奠定了北大清华毕业生
——尤其是本科毕 业生的就业标准基准线,这是有历史意义的。

让我们再看一下同期的其他热门行业,当时主要的热门行业集中在通信行业和
IT、互联网行业。通信产业方面,无线通信在欧洲、美国正是一路挺进3G的时
候, 在中国刚刚开始打开2G,爱立信、诺基亚、摩托罗拉以及加拿大北电如同耀
眼的太阳。当时中国有一些技术的,比如中电科这个庞大的军工科技集团军奉中
央政府 之命执行科技产业化策略,设立的企业就是给摩托罗拉在天津的组装厂提
供零部件!(天津力神就是生产摩托罗拉配套的锂电池)。那么,进入诺基亚、
摩托罗拉这 样的外企,当然钱途无量。一直到2006年——也就是摩托罗拉和诺基
亚即将遭遇苹果的迎头痛击走向深渊的前夜,进入摩托罗拉的本科毕业生起薪仍
然在 9000元人民币。另一个热门的方向则是新设立的互联网企业,这些企业有的
演变成了系统软件公司(如中国最早的风投设立的企业亚信),有的则变成了门
户网 站(比如新浪)。一方面,90年代末到21世纪初,中国从中央政府和中央企
业起开始进行世界罕见的大规模全面信息化改造,带来大量订单,另一方面,20
世 纪末21世纪初,美国人多钱傻,在那个时代就开始渲染的中国概念已经能让美
国投资人疯狂(2010年冬的第四波中国互联网企业在美上市潮又启动了新一轮疯
狂),十年回眸,翻开1999年的新浪第一份财报,里面的业务描述和财务数字可
以让你捏一把汗。就是这两个原因,让亚信、新浪、中华网或者中关村的软件公
司给本科毕业生开出的价码轻轻松松达到8000——相比于当时刚刚成立的中国移
动(1999年中国移动刚成立的时候没有人愿意去,包括电信部门内部人员选 择也
愿意留任中国电信)每个月给新毕业大学生千元出头的薪资(生动的例子可参见
网络小说《再见理想》),难道不动心吗?

不过,这一批进入外 企的中国精英,往往进的是后台运营、支持和财务部门。因
此,进入这个领域的人,往往大部分才华其实没有得到很多的锻炼,而是纳入了
外企的巨大官僚机器。这 里稍微解释一下跨国企业的中国战略的演变,在90年
代,跨国企业主要是“极上”和“极下”两个触角伸入中国,一个是代表处——
谋求在中国做生意(无论是获 取前端的市场还是得到后端的生产合作)的合法资
格,一个是生产基地——主要采取了收购中国既有企业或通过订单带动中国小企
业为其进行非核心部件;接下来在 中国的生产基地或外包伙伴多了,就需要在一
线城市设立运营中心和地方管理部门——这就是北大清华毕业生们去的地方。

再下来端出来的是外资或准外资券商(投资银行)——主要是美资和欧皮美骨的
十大券商和中金公司,他们进的最晚,给的薪酬最高,从90年代末起的国企改制
上 市发家的中金大概在2002年左右大规模进入北大经济院系学生的视野——因为
它不可能老是靠招“经验型香港人才”来干活,得有些大陆子弟跑腿,那时流传
的 “惊人高薪”是起步8000元,再加上种种“不可变成现金的福利”可达到2万
元,相伴随的则是某新入行的兄弟“天天复印材料生了病耳朵差点聋了”的传说
(朱老板为什么要请北大毕业生来干复印店伙计的活呢?浪费人才可见一斑)。

这个时候,一些科技公司也开始在中国设立研究院,但最开始并没有放太多希望
在上面,主要定位还是储备力量和辅助力量——例如微软亚洲研究院(1998年,
学术研究储备)和微软亚洲工程院(2003年,应用,主要目的是开发中国市
场)。

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世纪初到世纪末

时间继续往前演进,大约在2003年下半年,其他外资投行逐渐显露头角,同时中
国本土形形色色、从轻到重的制造业快速崛起,科技中的硬件部分在东北、上海
张江、北京、深圳、西安等地陆续发力后也开始抬头,到2005年之后本土新型品
牌(除去较早就已经兴起的家电品牌)、本土渠道商(超市、家电卖场)也日益
繁荣。那么宝洁这样的企业在自己的市场营销领域也将遭遇本土品牌的竞争,所
以宝洁大概到2004年以后就慢慢的不怎么火了。而诺基亚、西门子、朗讯、摩托
罗拉这些通信方面的企业在通信设备上则被泡沫后的漫长冬天所笼罩(手机部门
靠着在2005年打败中国本土手机相对好一些),中国分部的待遇自然也停滞不
前。

到2004-2006年,高盛和瑞银曲线进入中国后才打开了大门,但因为长期以来奉行
高门槛“精英原则”(拿名牌高校生干数字体力活甚至文字体力活),而 且很长
一段时间只能到香港的亚洲分部或者北京办事处工作,所以招人极少(每家公司
按个位数计算),可是因为薪资极高(按那时汇率折合近50万人民币),再 加上
光华等院系的长期舆论导向,所以他们的宣讲会都变成人头攒动的盛会(当然,
在美国也是如此),形成了中国一流高校内就业宣讲营销市场高度的不对称。

到2006年之后,科技类外企开始出现陆续将核心重点放在亚洲,充分挖掘中国智
力资源的趋势,微软在2006年将属下诸院整合成微软亚太研发中心。谷歌中国也
是在2006年才成立的。这暗示了一个重大性质上的转变。

2008年,手机领域的苹果革命、设备领域华为中兴的群殴和金融危机的严冬,中
关村软件公司竞争加剧,卖方市场变成买方市场,让诺基亚、西门子、朗讯、摩
托罗拉这些企业的手机部门败落了下来,更让也不可能给出21世纪初的高薪资
了。但是从北大清华的就业热来说,外企热仍然在延续,什么样的外企在中国活
得不 错呢?制造业领域主要是中国还无从置喙或者有中国国有部门大单的企业,
或本身在全球就属于后来赶超者的企业,前者以德国企业尤其是德国汽车企业
(大众、宝 马……)为代表(中国人越有钱买好车的越多),后者以韩国三星为
代表(它干掉的是日本企业)。

到2009年下半年到2010年上半年,大量的跨国公司——半导体(如半导体之母应
用材料公司)、制药、高级机械(GE)开始真正争先恐后的将真正具有核 心实力
的研发基地搬到中国(尤其是西安、成都等城市),而且需要和中国同等企业进
行合资合作(如和南车合作)。事情发生了不可逆转的彻底性质变化。而这一 点
是不容易的——没有外在压力跨国企业绝对不会把真金白银落户到外国的土地
上)推动这一点实现的,究其原因,一方面正是中国技术型企业(国有和民营)
的步 步紧逼,压得外国踹不过气来,另一方面,中国政府坚持“自主创新”的催
命符也起了很大的作用。

薪资方面,在经过10多年的发展,特别是2003年、2005年之后的发展后,中国的
一线城市的月薪达到3000人民币以上,略有工作年限的达到8000 人民币以上,二
三线城市达到2000-5000人民币,农民工收入达到2000-5000人民币(高的如经验
建筑工5000以上,低的如保安 1000-1500),从绝对增长额来说的确是一个奇
迹。同期,以本币计量,美国的收入略有增长,日本的收入倒退20-30%,香港的
收入下降 30-40%。世界各地的薪资水平正在收敛。中国继续增长并反超,是可以
期待的。

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证券行业

证券业是2003-2004年以后最热门的就业方向,直到最近仍然是最热门的方向(尽
管中资机构已经相当程度上取代了外资),我就岔开一笔,略微对于中国 证券方
面的发展历程做个粗勒但力求完整的介绍。证券行业大概分为中国的资本市场和
香港的资本市场,两地债券市场至少在前几年都不发达,因此基本可以认同为 股
票市场。中国大陆的股票市场按照时间可以分为散户时代、大户时代(90年代早
中期)、庄家时代(90年代中后期)、券商时代(1999-2001年)、 基金时代
(2003-2008年)、私募与基金共存时代(2008年下半年到今),不同的时代决定
了哪个机构热门。值得书写的历史大概从庄家时代起,庄家 时代兴起于90年代早
中期各地放手财政一搏,套着“省国投”名目的官方庄家和草莽民间庄家相互厮
杀,亡于《财经》系的打黑行动(财经系的兴起与南方系的兴 起都是打黑,只不
过一个打经济黑,一个打贪污和黑社会);券商时代兴起于99年股市复苏,在股
市高涨下为了引资而搞的代客理财业务,亡于在 2001-2005年的漫漫熊市中代客
理财带来的巨额亏蚀;基金时代兴起于《财经》和官方鼓吹的“机构投资者比个
人投资者更理性更专业”,“向美国模式看 齐”,到现在为止没有收到过打击,
只是人员因为巨额暴利的吸引流向私募基金行业;而私募基金行业的兴起一方面
缘于中国法律在信托业务和合伙制企业方面的放 开,一方面缘于数年经济发展累
积的充盈资本的快速牟利需求,如何遭遇挫折?——也许创业板的大调整是一个
节点。

那么外资券商在这十几年的发展史中什么时候吃的饱什么时候开始饿肚子呢?外
资券商进入中国揽业务的兴盛时期大约在90年代末延续到2007年,2009年 之后又
进入了一个自己吃的还可以但是得开始分羹给中资机构的新时期。90年代末到
2007年这个兴盛期可以大致分为两个时间段,第一个时间段是90年代末 到2002
年,这一时期中国经济还在调整的相对低谷中徘徊,社会关注热点是原有国有机
构的“转型”,而外资券商的机会就在于巨型央企海外上市融资的机遇。 于是他
们和咨询公司、会计事务所、法律事务所、香港物业评估机构等小伙伴们一起杀
进来,中国饭吃的相当不错,此时他们进一步的期望是打开中国市场的大门, 让
中国像香港那样变成他们垄断的天下;2003年之后,中国经济快速发展,方向立
即从90年代末的“引进国外先进经验”的“中求外”,变成“外资赶快抓住 中国
基本面带来的生意机会”的“外求中”,这时的“外求中”主要有上下两个层
面,第一层是中国的草根拼搏起来的中型乃至小型民营企业的融资,典型的如
2002年上市的比亚迪,为什么外资能够吃到这口饭?因为2002-2005年中国经济腾
飞的时候正好是中国股市被“股权分置改革”、国内券商破产、“上 市公司盈利
能力不强”等话题困扰的焦头烂额的时候,证监会因为历史原因先天缺乏解决能
力的素质,一个《财经》系就能搅得国内舆论纷纷扬扬,中小企业没有办 法,只
能去香港乃至美国和英国融资,一个个都把业务送到了外资手上,另一层则是中
国的金融企业的改革和上市,也就是中国的四大国有银行和股份制银行,在这 个
过程中,发生了两件事情,一是中国经济基本面的快速发展使得原来挣扎的银行
的资产迅速好转而且高速增长,另一件事情是外资纷纷入股银行成为“战略投资
者”,当然,事实证明是中国的经济基本面把中国的银行推成了全世界最大,且
质量还可以的银行阵容,而外资的“战略投资者”的唯一作用就是在金融危机后
套现 成了自身的救命稻草。我们一旦把这近十年的历史梳理下来,马上就能够理
解为什么外资券商在2003年之后开始大举进入北大清华招聘并在那几年形成那么
巨大 的声势——因为中国创造了真正的机会(非90年代那种单纯的国企改制机
会),同时国内的券商却自身难保;同样,我们一样可以理解为什么2008年之后
外资 券商以及中金都在中国业务上至少是相对的走下坡路:因为中金和外资最有
垄断力,获利最丰的央企改制上市随着大型银行上市的完成,大单机会少了,另
一方面, 外资券商在2004-2006年进入中国的努力费了半天周折,在总算有了一
两个突破后却因为带着傲慢的惯性而在业务上成果寥寥,同时,2006年起的活跃
的中国股市给大批中国企业特别是券商企业补充了弹药,而获得了居民大量储蓄
资金的中国基金们更认中资券商的服务。所有这些加在一起,外国金融势力除了
再忽 悠忽悠中投这样的机构,很难有基本面再牛下去。但是,他们在北大延续制
造的崇拜文化却还要在一段时间内继续存留下去。

外资氛围在北大清华 高潮的最后一个小浪花是国外的私募股权基金(不是上文中
国股票市场的“私募”股票基金),即Private Equity,这个浪潮很短,大约兴
起于2006年年底,结束于2008年年中即金融危机大爆发之前。这个浪潮虽然时间
极短,而且基本没有中国学生刚毕业 就入行的例子,但是通过国内校园传播、高
校人物、社会舆论和财经媒体的放大,影响却比较大。这股浪潮的背景是2005-
2007年的私募股权基金借巨型收 购再次在世界上的兴起,比如对于First Data等
信息服务商、克莱斯勒等陷入困境的公司的巨额杠杆并购,在亚洲,则不是欧美
式的存量资产的兼并收购,而是入股亚洲特别是中国的成长型企业,做 “战略投
资者”或“财务投资者”,借发展继续资金吃一笔。著名的这类公司包括凯雷、
KKR、德州太平洋、欧洲的3i等,当然最出名的还是那个忽悠了中投公 司的黑
石,另外美国的券商里面也纷纷发展类似性质的部门,在2005-2007年俨然变身为
基金的高盛就是如此。此外,还有美国的共同基金公司如 Citadel, Fidelity跑
到国内招人。但是2008年上半年之后,仿佛一阵风一样,再也没有消息了?他们
都到哪里去了?前一阵最近的并购消息可以提供一些踪迹: 黑石希望上海光明食
品集团买下他在2005-2007年的大并购期间收购的英国联合饼干公司(United
Biscuit),原来,2008年金融危机大爆发之后,这些强烈依靠贷款(杠杆)的私
募股权公司们发现自己的债务很难滚动延续下去了,而原来收购的资产 在欧美经
济整体环境恶劣的情况下消化不良,到2010年处境比较尴尬,一个方向就是让中
国或其他新兴市场国家的外汇管理局来接盘。在这方面的造势上,有一 个叫做
Michael Pettis的北大光华教授起了特殊的作用,此人靠80年代拉美债务危机重
组和94年之后一度复兴的拉美资本市场起家,在阿根廷危机之后跑到中国清华和
北 大任教,2007年之后在中国媒体上积极露面,对于中国高校学子的影响也日渐
明显。这个人的态度,基本可以概括为借着中国2003年兴起的总体趋势拿了一
把,但还要继续占据教父的位置,在时不时的训斥调教里维持自己的优势,并进
一步控制中国的下一代。

上述外资券商的方向转变:从90年代末的“中求外”,转变成21世纪头一个十年
结束时的“外求中”,适用于所有的会计、法律、咨询、券商等服务行业。当
然,这里面不同行业的命运也因此有了差别。中国企业在90年代末,以当时分离
出来的央企为首,以洋至上,非得先通过咨询公司量下身,再通过会计审一边,
再 由国际律所查一通,最后再由国外券商送一程,或者让国外的券商、银行、基
金作为财务投资者投一把,然后去上市,每过一个阶段缴一大笔款,出资人拿出
的生产 资料数量级(对应几千几万人)的资金作为报酬,这笔款又由人数不多的
专业型公司内部按生活资料(对应几个人或者几十个人)来瓜分,当然那边待遇
很好。而 21世纪后兴起的中国公司,无论国有还是民营,一般是到真要花钱,估
计能收获效果的时候才请洋人,否则一个子都不给,这一下业务当然不好过了。
同时,国内 也有本土的服务企业开始萌芽,在未来有可能进一步冲击外资的市
场,外资只能靠境外的习惯法律保护来保证垄断市场份额(例如,到香港上市规
定必须要有一中一 外两个会计事务所,两个法律事务所才可通过)。

未来外资怎么办?从整体上来看,除了一些个例如韩国三星(这家公司反复强调
自己是中国三星)以外,应该会继续往下走。2010年新形成了一批中外合资技术
型企业,这批企业与90年代的中外合资企业不同,90年代是外资吃中国,借中国
之力为它所用,现在是中国吃外国,将外国的技术加速转移吸收进来。外资企业
从整体上来看只能服从。除此之外,只能在中国国内因为历史原因尚不能提供支
持的领域,例如互联网产业领域分享一些机会(例如2005年之后兴起的为 web2.0
及更后面的移动互联网浪潮提供中介服务的华兴资本、汉坤律所等)。而两边都
不靠的企业,比如管理咨询行业,日子就很难过了,这也是稍弱一些的 咨询公司
比如BCG在中国显得比较狼狈的原因。

—————————————————————————————

出国留学篇

上面谈的主要是就业。另外一条国内一流高校学生经常走的道路——出国留学,
在此略作补充。出国留学热始于80年代,中美蜜月期,机会最多,89年-91年 众
所周知之原因,大批学子从此扎根海外,人才损失;90年代这股热潮一直延续了
下来,原因是因为从生物到电子工程、计算机,国外机会不错(最不济的生物也
能提供博士后岗位养着你,要是信息产业还能参与创业发财)。一般从出国到最
后寻找人生事业的落脚点,有一个时滞,这个时滞基本上是5年上下(短的就是辍
学 了,长的就是久攻不下);5年,对于个人来说,乍一看好像还没什么,对于
时局把握来说,那可以发生翻天覆地的变化。90年代末出国的人,到毕业的时候
(2003年之后)选择硅谷创业的人已经不多(web2.0能吸收一点),更多的跑到
了华尔街里面,干了几年,就是金融风暴,而90年代末正是本系列文章 刚刚起笔
的时刻,而到2005年选择出国的人,毕业的时候已经是当下(2010年),选择机
会就更窄了——即便是学术职位也非常难找,自然就会有抱怨的意 思。在正常的
情况下,如果在2010年以后还选择出国,那就得问问他有没有基本的观察能力
了。那么为什么现在出国留学还有很多人如此积极呢?媒体的氛围影 响起了很大
的作用,结果是信息梗阻,统领全国风气的一流高校里的氛围转变的不是特别
大。

—————————————————————————————

总结

中国媒体搞末世论调,最先响应的人是谁?首先是外企里面的人,然后是最近几
年跑到政府里面的人(骂政府最凶的一些人也是考公务员最积极的人),影响的
是一 大批比较有文采天赋的一流高校的学生。反过来继续制造一大批谣言、讽刺
词句、通过web2.0的手段散布到中国各个角落。这样违反基本面的趋势,的确可
能 在未来的时刻反过来作用于基本面,造成不利的影响。为什么?

这就要看另一面:中国企业、政府和事业单位发生了什么?

首先是中国的政府公务员,这几年公务员考试很热(氛围大概从2004年底发生了
转折),原因是什么?是做公务员有多高的收入吗?确切的说是相比90年代薪 资
提上去了,的确比较稳定,比如说实行阳光工资的省份,刚进去的大学生拿个
2500-3000元,比较普遍。不过需要提醒大家的是,相比地方公务员,国家 公务
员可不好当,像发改委、工信部、农业部这样的管理真正经济事务的机构,任务
极重(基本都是重大实事),基本上没有假期,再加上还带有一些遗留下来的集
中式管理的风格,一般人可能无法经历里面的考验,最重要的是,待遇一般,可
能会让你觉得委屈(这也是我一直积极支持大幅度提高中央基层公务员薪资的原
因 ——国内之所以没有这样做,是因为财政部不通货币原理,还守着90年代铁公
鸡量入为出的那一套,竟然在生活资料资金上克扣中央部委的薪水),当然,公
务员 里面也有任务极轻的部门,这些部门多半都是有问题的,比如计生委、汇金
公司等,你在里面得不到锻炼,虚度光阴的感觉十分强烈。

从央企来说,需要分情况,有的上升,有的下降。90年代末21世纪初,几大央企
还没有起来,当时待遇最好的应该是航空公司及相关服务部门,其中有些垄断部
门在2001年月薪8000是比较常见的。后来竞争加剧,特别是有了铁道部掺活进来
以后火上浇油,薪资十年来倒着长。薪资得到真实反映的主要还是如电网、 设
备、机床等部门,随着原有的中央和地方企业的起死回生,部分老产业地区的复
兴,下游行业的复苏和高端出口的飞速发展而得到了快速壮大,另外有一批原来
的 部委所属的研究所进行改制设立企业,体制总体还不太行,但开始慢慢出现较
良性的发展势头。

剩下的私营企业,他们招收的是那么几类人,一类是生产线人员,基本属于打工
阶层,薪资从90年代中后期到2004年上涨比较缓慢,从2005年特别是 2008年起加
速成长,主要受控于供需因素,这部分人的薪资将继续快速上升;第二类是科研
人员、销售人员,大中型企业主要吸收的是二线高校的本科、硕士毕 业生,小企
业可能吸收二三流高校乃至专科学校的毕业生。这批人本来就没有北大清华校园
里灌输的那种期望,反而容易满足,擦把脸就上了战场。无论在历史上还 是现实
中他们都不会是抱怨的主力,从历史上来看,21世纪初前往华为的大批学生(北
科大、华中科大……)的个人成长收获比选择了摩托罗拉、诺基亚的北大清 华学
生要强,从现实上来看,三流高校的北漂蚁族毕业生们反而比北大清华学生要自
信的多,这是有其内在原因的。

但中国企业走到下一步,就必然面对着一个新的障碍。这个障碍有两方面构成,
一个方面是舆论氛围的制造,这个氛围可能使得企业经营者自信心受到影响,或
者影 响下游客户对于中国的看法,自我摧毁发展动力,一个方面是人才的供应,
虽然说人才要靠实践中成长锻炼,但是在中国企业发展的下一阶段,营销、形象
塑造、策 略规划等软实力的东西必须提上日程,才能进一步打开局面,在这方
面,一流高校的毕业生是比较好的人才库,如果这些人才不能为中国力量所启
用,而是加入反中 国的自怨自艾的唱衰群体,那么中国的确会面临很大的问题。
这个问题你必须解决。

回顾这十多年来中国一流高校内的就业史,“外资企业热”横亘十年,余波未
了,究其原因,学生相对脱离社会,不能在一线迅速观察、体会到大环境的变
化,容易 受媒体影响是主要原因。要打掉这股媒体-高校-中国未来人才的联动恶
性循环,一个要在基本面上下功夫,另一个就是要打破链条。我曾经说过,中国
高校年轻人 之所以最近两年怨气被煽动的很大,归根结底是两个原因,一个是毕
业后的住房问题,一个是就业问题,前者走公租房道路,提供稳定的(租房被当
地地头房东随意 赶这是租房人最不能忍受的一点,我深有感触)、质量较好的、
可以在住所里放心改良生活质量(如装修装饰等)的居住条件,是化解矛盾的直
接办法,后者要解决 的是结构性问题,最可行的方式是出现一批桥梁平台,沟通
中国企业和一流高校的毕业生,打通信息,同时必须逐渐化掉中国一流高校里已
经蔓延了十几年的外企就 业热潮和出国热潮。简而言之,解决“人才的出口”问
题。在解决过程中,诞生一批中国本土,有中国立场和自信的服务性企业,是完
全有可能的。

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