...The Growing U.S. Concerns with Iran Jeremy Bondy American Military University DEFM600 B001 Win 12 Dr. Oliver Hedgepeth February 25, 2012 Table of Contents Introduction 3 History 4 Assumptions 5 Secrecy of Iran's Nuclear Program 6 Evidence of Nuclear Weapon Development 6 Refusing IAEA Inspections 7 Closing the Straits of Hormuz 8 Iran Aid to Syrian Government 9 Iran's Supporting of Militant Groups 10 Replacing the Iranian Regime 10 Variables Used to Define a Model 11 Conclusion 12 References 13 Introduction As time goes on Iran is becoming an increasing area of concern and threat to the United States and its allies. Iran has been working for some time at trying to establish itself as a dominant power, especially within the Middle East. This quest for recognition has caused rising national security concerns within the United States and some of its allied countries. Some of the most recent concerns include; Iran's nuclear program, threats of closing of the Straits of Hormuz, the oil sanctions, and Iran's threats towards other oil producing Arab nations. Iran has also been working at strengthening its ties with Syria, the Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shiite groups in Iraq, and ties to groups in Palestine and Afghanistan. According to Mansour (2008), Iran has many tools in place that have a major impact on their surrounding countries and on the United States. Iran is gaining allot of ground on becoming a dominating force...
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...Iran’s Nuclear Weapons: Realist and Idealist Paradigms Student name: Institution: Course name: Ttor name: Due Date: Iran’s Nuclear Weapons: Realist and Idealist Paradigms This paper will discuss the impending nuclear agreement with Iran reflecting on the realistic and idealistic paradigms in international affairs. Observations of the relationship will firmly accommodate the two paradigms. The aim will be to elaborate clearly the use of international law and organizations on all the paradigms in connection to international security and inter-state relationships. Realist Paradigm Realism is mounted on the notion that, world politics is driven by competitive self-interests and a struggle for power that is aimed at preserving and improving military, security and economic interests. To realists, the presence of war is essential in a state system as it clearly underlines the hypothesis of international conflict. Such states are characterized by chaos and revolutions, which are directly linked to vested national interests, distribution of power and conflict. a. Political realism The Iranian nuclear program has attracted much attention within the international arena due to the interest devoted by nation’s states on their foreign policies (Bowen & Brewer2011). In international relations, realists and idealists paradigms are important as they concern themselves with substantive issues affecting nations and states...
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...Will A Nuclear Deal with Iran Impact the Iranian Regime’s Behavior and Change the Regional Dynamic in the Middle East? Mike Maleki December 06, 2014 Illustrated by Paul Combs of the Tribune Media Services. Many in the West have expressed concern about a possible failure of the P5+1 countries – the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany – to secure a comprehensive deal with Iran on its controversial nuclear program. These concerns, however, represent a somewhat myopic view of the bigger picture concerning Iran’s nuclear ambitions. A thorough look at the Iranian regime’s domestic and foreign policies reveals that a nuclear deal would, in fact, have very limited effect on the behavior of Iran’s authoritarian theocracy and change very little about the dynamics in the 1 Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution changed the balance of power in the Middle East. Following the revolution, Iran, a pillar of the US’ regional Cold War policy, became increasingly isolated as it quarreled with its majority Sunni neighbors for influence and sought to export its Islamic revolution as far as to Europe.1 However, Iran attempted to overcome its isolation as a Shiite and majority Persian state by tempting the aspirations of the region’s Arab population with its support for radical anti-Israel/anti-US regional movements, thus successfully establishing a web of proxies and surrogates – the so-called “axis of resistance.” Furthermore, since 2003, the Iranian...
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...recently? (levage de mains), why?? Good, as you may know, Iran is focus of actuality economic and politic. Through this presentation, we will answer two questions, First of all, we’ll see if Iran is key country and secondly, we’ll see the point of Iran as a threat to the peace of the world. Conflit interne Complex political strucure At the apex of the Islamic Republic’s power structure is a “Supreme Leader” who has vast formal powers and no term limits. Today it’s Ayatola Ali Khomeni. He is chosen by an elected body “the Assembly of Experts” which also has the constitutional power to remove bhim. He is responsible for “general policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran”, which include all aspects of domestic and foreign policy. He exercises considerable authority. He controls all of the armed forces and the Islamic Republic’s intelligence and security operations. He alone can declare war and peace. Throughout (au cours) career, has consistently taken hardline stances on regional issues, particularly toward Israel, often calling it a cancerous tumor that needs to be excised from the region. President’s powers : The main directly elected institution is the presidency, which is clearly subordinate to the Supreme Leader. Each president has tried and generally failed to expand his authority relative to the Supreme Leader. Presidential authority, particularly on matters of national security, is also disputed by key clerics and other powerful...
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...A Nuclear Iran and Proliferation It has been argued that the Israeli fear of a nuclear Iran is more due to the resultant threat of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East than an Iranian NW per se.23 The revolutions that have swept across the region over the year or so will conceivably lead to greater control of Arab foreign policy by the Arab street, thus animosity towards Israel will appear in future decision-making. Israeli apprehension is born out of the theory that an Iranian NW will, by way of the security concept mentioned previously, lead to proliferation in the region. Combine greater regional acrimony toward the Jewish state with an Arab nuclear capability and Israeli fears are comprehensible. As Kenneth Waltz has argued, history demonstrates that the cascade concept (a state will rapidly construct NWs to counter strategic imbalance created by a hostile neighbour’s nuclear arming) is flawed. His argument is further consolidated by virtue of the fact that the fear of rapid nuclear proliferation has been vociferously audible in Western media almost every year since the 1960s, yet the world possesses only nine nuclear powers.24 Leaving this convincing argument to one side, would a nuclear Iran provoke proliferation in the Middle East? Sagan’s aforementioned three theories assume that a state has the ability and the opportunity to develop a weapon.25 By inserting such a caveat we can eliminate numerous states from this predictive analysis of proliferation in the...
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...case for Israel as the only ethnically and religiously Jewish state, not only in the region but in the world at large. Aside from Turkey, which is really the only other significant non-Arab state actor in the region, Iran and Israel represent deviations from the norm of mostly Sunni Muslim and ethnically Arab states in the Middle East. Still, what stands out as truly unique in the modern Middle East is the Iranian-Israeli connection, a facet of international politics unparalleled elsewhere in terms of Persian-Jewish contact and cooperation spanning thousands of years, overall international interdependence, and the abrupt switch from amity to enmity as of 1979. While the international media has cast an ever-stronger spotlight on the Iranian-Israeli relationship in the past five or ten years, it has long deserved closer scrutiny. For two countries to be as intertwined at the political, military, economic and societal levels – like Iran and Israel from the 1950s through to the 1970s – and then to become and remain bitter and irreconcilable enemies – thanks to a radical Iranian regime change in 1979 – is virtually unheard of in the realm of international politics. This phenomenon begged further study, and was spurred along by the need for an impartial and inclusive analysis to mitigate the perpetual barrage of news headlines and journal articles prophesying the inevitable showdown between the two states (and...
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...Nonproliferation John Rollins Specialist in Terrorism and National Security Catherine A. Theohary Analyst in National Security Policy and Information Operations December 9, 2010 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov R41524 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress The Stuxnet Computer Worm: Harbinger of an Emerging Warfare Capability Summary In September 2010, media reports emerged about a new form of cyber attack that appeared to target Iran, although the actual target, if any, is unknown. Through the use of thumb drives in computers that were not connected to the Internet, a malicious software program known as Stuxnet infected computer systems that were used to control the functioning of a nuclear power plant. Once inside the system, Stuxnet had the ability to degrade or destroy the software on which it operated. Although early reports focused on the impact on facilities in Iran, researchers discovered that the program had spread throughout multiple countries worldwide. From the perspective of many national security and technology observers, the emergence of the Stuxnet worm is the type of risk that threatens to cause harm to many activities deemed critical to the basic functioning of modern society. The Stuxnet worm covertly attempts to identify and exploit equipment that controls a nation’s critical infrastructure. A successful attack by a software application such as the Stuxnet worm could result in manipulation of control system...
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...The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iranian Nuclear Deal in vernacular, that was signed earlier this year is the culmination of a decades-long diplomatic arm wrestle between Iran and the United Nations. Iran, the European Union and the permanent members of the UN Security Council collectively referred to as P5+1 (United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China and Germany), reached a final agreement on July 14, 2015 in Vienna after many rounds of negotiations. The deal is meant to curb Iran's nuclear program, which has been a prolonged international safety concern, in return for incremental relief from the UN sanctions that have economically isolated Iran for years. The JCPOA requires that Iran cut its stock of enriched uranium by 98%, enrich uranium up to only 3.67%, and eliminate 2/3 of its current centrifuges. Iran cannot build new uranium-enrichment facilities, and nuclear activities will be restricted to one facility. Additionally, Iran has given the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) extensive access to its nuclear facilities for inspections. The physical requirements will last 15 years, while monitoring parameters will be in effect for 25 years. As Iran is confirmed to be in compliance with the deal, sanctions will be lifted and Iran will receive $100 billion of its frozen assets. Hassan Rouhani, the current Iranian president, and his administration hope the agreement will revitalize the country's economy. In exchange, the other parties predict...
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...the surface, the U.S. and Iranian governments have much in common: a president who is popularly elected, a legislature, and a powerful judiciary. The main difference in Iran’s government is that one man, the Supreme Leader, (who today is Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) uses ideological and political control over a system dominated by clergy who back every major function of the state. The president is the 2nd highest-ranking authority, who is responsible for setting the country's economic policies. Iran’s government also includes a Parliament, which is a unicameral legislative body that drafts legislation, ratifies international treaties, and approves the country's budget. There’s also The Assembly of Experts, which consists of 86 educated clerics who elect the Supreme Leader from within their own ranks and periodically reconfirm him. The Council of Guardians has the authority to interpret the constitution and determine if the laws passed by Parliament are in line with sharia, Islamic law (which means they have veto power over Parliament). Additionally, there is an Expediency Council (currently headed by Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani) who serves as an advisory body to the Supreme Leader, making it one of the most powerful governing bodies in the country. The US and Islam’s governments had numerous issues with each other in the past, and now they are gradually trying to improve their relations. The United States had long-standing concerns over Iran’s nuclear program, sponsorship of terrorism...
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...displeasure, India is in no mood to reduce its energy ties with Iran. Let us say that the Indian policy makers are cognizant of some of the critical facts concerning Iran. * That the international community has serious misgivings about the peaceful intentions of the Iranian nuclear programme. * That India is formally opposed to a nuclear Iran. * That under American sanctions, in December 2010 India had to terminate the Asian Customs Union (ACU) arrangement to pay for its oil imports from Iran. * That alternative payment arrangements through Germany, Turkey and the UAE were unsuccessful, finally forcing India and Iran to settle for partial rupee payment for oil imports. * That the rupee payment arrangement covers only 45 percent of the oil bill because the trade balance is highly in favour of Iran. * That State-own Shipping Corporation India has refused to ship crude from Iran because it could not find the necessary insurance cover. * That there are growing concerns over a possible Israeli military strike against Iranian nuclear installations. * That India would have learned some lessons from the September 2005 fiasco over the IAEA vote. Not only its anti-Iranian vote was a last minute decision, the manner in which it executed and explained its vote clearly revealed that New Delhi acted under pressure from Washington. This inept handling angered Tehran and displeased Washington. * That the statement issued by the Indian...
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...Saudi Arabia= enemies . Nuclear weapons. -Persian Gulf-> -Iran sponsors terrorism, better than Alkada. Doesn’t believe in the state of Israel and they pursue nuclear weapons. Iranian Sheia endure pain Conflict with Iran and Israel -Afghanistan & Pakistan-> both governments are weak in not providing services -weak economy, and the floods only worsened this -also terrorists threat to kill/replace governments -nuclear weapons Afghan -situation where their President reelection frauds, lots of candidates (this is positive), Nader is responsible for security in Afghan. -Need connection between police, army and President or no people will follow -If vote, were threatened to be killed, so the women would dress as mourners to vote. They want to change their government. They want improvement. They want a good government. Iraq- 50,000 troops there. Iraqis can handle their own internal security. Violence is there because of uncertainty about where the government is going. -French foreign minister says positive things about Iraq (first foreign power to do so) “The democratic Iraq has potential for changing dynamics in the middle east.” (Because the middle east with Israel and all the tensions and constant battles, this says a lot and gives hope to a light out of the constant tension this region is constantly in.) -China-> not traditional military threat; -growing economy power but millions in poverty. -China can’t power (they lack the energy),...
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...Saudi Arabia, home to the most important oil fields in the world. In 1991, the United Nations Security Council authorized military action to evict Iraq, and a multinational force with 34 members soon evicted Iraq from Kuwait and restored the Kuwaiti government. The League of Arab States also approved of military action to reverse the invasion of Kuwait; both Iraq and Kuwait were (and still are) members of the league, and a number of Arab states participated in the military action. Under the terms of the 1991 ceasefire after the restoration of the Kuwaiti government, Iraq pledged to dismantle its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs. It was widely believed that Iraq was developing nuclear weapons. Further, it was documented by the U.N. that Iraq had actually used chemical WMDs against Iranian troops during the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s and against a minority population in Iraq in 1988. In response to Iraq's noncompliance with the commitments it made in the 1991 ceasefire, the U.N. authorized economic sanctions against it. Despite the sanctions, Iraq continued to defy the U.N. inspectors who were responsible for checking on Iraq's progress in dismantling its WMD programs, and relations between Iraq and the United States reached a critical level. In part, this may have...
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...Saudi Arabia, home to the most important oil fields in the world. In 1991, the United Nations Security Council authorized military action to evict Iraq, and a multinational force with 34 members soon evicted Iraq from Kuwait and restored the Kuwaiti government. The League of Arab States also approved of military action to reverse the invasion of Kuwait; both Iraq and Kuwait were (and still are) members of the league, and a number of Arab states participated in the military action. Under the terms of the 1991 ceasefire after the restoration of the Kuwaiti government, Iraq pledged to dismantle its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs. It was widely believed that Iraq was developing nuclear weapons. Furthermore, it was documented by the UN that Iraq had actually used chemical WMDs against Iranian troops during the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s and against a minority population in Iraq in 1988. In response to Iraq's noncompliance with the commitments it made in the 1991 ceasefire, the UN authorized economic sanctions against it. Despite the sanctions, Iraq continued to defy the UN inspectors who were responsible for checking on Iraq's progress in dismantling its WMD programs, and relations between Iraq and the United States reached a critical level. In part, this may have been a reaction on the part of the United States to the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks...
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...the Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea 2. Iran is the eighteenth largest country in the world 3. The economy of Iran is the twenty-fifth largest in the world by GDP (nominal) and the eighteenth largest economy in the world by purchasing power parity (PPP) 4. world’s second largest proven oil reserves, after Saudi Arabia, 5. world’s second largest proven gas reserves after Russia 6. It is OPEC's (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) 2nd largest oil exporter and is an energy superpower. 7. Subsidy reform has cut domestic consumption of oil and gas and provides more for export 8. Oil and gas aside, Iran is rich in other resources and has a strong agricultural sector 9. Easy Access to markets of neighboring countries 10. Iran has one of the highest urban growth rates in the world. From 1950 to 2002, the urban proportion of the population increased from 27% to 60% 11. TSE (Tehran Stock Exchange) has been one of the world's best performing stock exchanges in recent years. 12. The Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Act (FIPPA) gives some protection to foreign investors and relatively good terms for the repatriation of profits 13. Although stifled in the years since the revolution, Iranians are known for their entrepreneurial skills, which is potentially a strong pull for foreign investors. 14. excellent reverse engineering capabilities and technical innovation 15. A large army including elite units 16. two thirds...
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...sanctions on associated services. • Suspend U.S. sanctions on Iran's auto industry, as well as sanctions on associated services. • License the supply and installation in Iran of spare parts for safety of flight for Iranian civil aviation and associated services. License safety related inspections and repairs in Iran as well as associated services. • Establish a financial channel to facilitate humanitarian trade for Iran's domestic needs using Iranian oil revenues held abroad. Humanitarian trade would be defined as transactions involving food and agricultural products, medicine, medical devices, and medical expenses incurred abroad. This channel would involve specified foreign banks and non-designated Iranian banks to be defined when establishing the channel. o This channel could also enable: transactions required to pay Iran's UN obligations; and, direct tuition payments to universities and colleges for Iranian students studying abroad, up to an agreed amount for the six month period. Agreements. • Comprehensively lift UN Security Council, multilateral and national nuclear-related sanctions, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy, on a schedule to be agreed upon. • Include international civil nuclear cooperation, including among others, on acquiring modern light...
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