...Budgeting and Forecasting Instructor Corrigan Feb. 7th, 2010 Impacts on Forecasting Identify a minimum of three current environmental conditions that would impact the preparation of a forecast. Explain how and why they would impact a forecast. Examples are weather conditions, government regulations, war, political unrest, etc. A business forecast could be severely affected by any sort of unpredictable and often unpreventable environmental circumstance. Several of these environmental conditions that would be detrimental for forecasting would be such events as weather conditions, economic unrest, and war. Weather conditions, although they can be predicted to a certain degree, often cannot be prevented. For example, natural disasters may occur, which would deter any company’s forecast. Another environmental impediment could arise from economic unrest. In such a case there may be unregulated episodes of inflation or unemployment, which could be detrimental to a business’s clientele and overall output. Next, the effects of war can take a company’s forecast for a spin, especially because the beginning and duration of a war can very often be unpredictable and its results very negative. Weather conditions can be detrimental for a company in regards to output. For example, something as common as a snow storm can deter deliveries for a business that does deliveries. This event may in term mean the waste of certain products that the company was counting on delivering in order...
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...ARTICLE IN PRESS Journal of Accounting and Economics 39 (2005) 509–533 www.elsevier.com/locate/jae To blame or not to blame: Analysts’ reactions to external explanations for poor financial performance$ Jan Barton, Molly Mercerà Goizueta Business School, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA Received 3 March 2003; received in revised form 17 March 2005; accepted 4 April 2005 Abstract Managers often provide self-serving disclosures that blame poor financial performance on temporary external factors. Results of an experiment conducted with 124 financial analysts suggest that when analysts perceive such disclosures as plausible, they provide higher earnings forecasts and stock valuations than if the explanation had not been provided. However, we also show that these disclosures can backfire if analysts find them implausible. Specifically, implausible explanations that blame poor performance on temporary external factors lead We appreciate the helpful comments of Holly Ashbaugh, Charlie Bailey, Sudipta Basu, Robert Bloomfield (the referee), Jennifer Joe, Jay Koehler, Mark Kohlbeck, Lisa Koonce, Bob Lipe, Stan Markov, Ella Mae Matsumura, Brian Mayhew, Jeff Miller, Pam Murphy, Lisa Sedor, Siew Hong Teoh, Kristy Towry, Terry Warfield, Greg Waymire, Jerry Zimmerman (the editor), and seminar participants at University of Georgia, Harvard University, University of Notre Dame, Ohio State University, Rice University, University of Wisconsin—Madison, the 2003 AAA Financial Accounting...
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...short term planning and coordinating process, but is also a means of exerting management control over budgeted operations. Budgeting becomes a management process rather than a financial one. Budgeting, as Distinguished from Forecasting Forecasting and budgeting, despite their similarities, should be clearly distinguished from each other. A forecast is a prediction of likely future events. But, unlike a budget, a forecast is not a plan for achieving those forecasted (desired?) results. And a forecast is too general to serve as a control standard against which actual progress across the period can be measured. Forecasts are the starting point in the budget planning process. Most firms and public agencies precede the preparation of their operating budgets with revenue forecasts and expectations of economic conditions within their markets or constituencies, and in the world's economy as a whole. We've just witnessed how economic conditions in Greece and Italy have affected the United States, as well as the poor financial climate since 2008. Essentially, the forecasting process analyzes the market and other conditions that the company or the agency is likely to face during the forthcoming period and attempts to predict what sales level the company can...
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... | | |Client Name:BHC | |Executive summary |Scenario One: Financial Investment Advise| |The current investment market is a hazardous environment for all stakeholders involved as a result of | | |recovering investor confidence post-global financial crisis (GFC) and with the possible effects of the | | |European credit crisis. It is therefore essential to analyse current expert opinion, economic factors and | | |interest rate forecasts when selecting an optimal investment strategy. Vision Finance provides this | | |analyses and a specified expert opinion for BHC given their current need for investment of funds in the | | |Australian money and debt capital markets within this report. | | Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ 1 1. Introduction ................................................................................................
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...appropriate for short term forecasting or demand estimation, while statistical methods are more suitable for long term demand forecasting or business and economic forecasting. Either of the methods may be used for forecasting demand for existing products, but the demand for new products, in the absence of any historical data, must be forecast through the survey method only. Under survey methods surveys are conducted about the consumers’ intentions, opinions of experts, survey of managerial plans, or of markets. Data obtained through these methods are analyzed, and forecasts on demand are made. These methods are generally used to make short-run forecast of demand. Survey methods are further sub-divided in to: Consumers’ Survey and Experts’ Opinion and Survey of Managerial Plans. A. Consumers’ Survey: Consumers’ survey involves direct interview of the potential consumers who are contacted by the interviewer and asked how much they would be willing to buy a given product at different prices. Consumers’ survey may take any form as: Complete Enumeration Sample Survey, or End-Use Method 1. Complete Enumeration Method: In complete enumeration survey, all the consumers of the product are contacted and asked to indicate their plans to purchasing the production in question for the forecast period. The demand forecast for the total census consumption is obtained simply by adding the intended demand of all...
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...industrial training are: ❖ To expose students to the real working environment ❖ To train students being familiar with the organization structure, operations, and administration. ❖ To acquire real experience in solving research problems and apply appropriate statistical data analysis. ❖ To enable students to integrate the theory learned at UiTM with practice. ❖ To cultivate cooperative networking between industries and UiTM 1.3 INDUSTRIAL TRAINING ATTACHMENT I had undergone my industrial training at Socio Economic and Environmental Research Institute (SERI) at Penang from 3rd January 2011 until 31st March 2011. I was directly supervised by Dr Chan Huang Chian and Ms Ong Wooi Leng who were Senior Research Fellow and Research Analyst respectively in the company. SERI is located at No.10 Brown road, 10350 Penang, Malaysia. 1.3.1 Profile of Organization [pic] Figure 1.1: SERI’s logo The Socio-Economic...
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...Preface Highlights Introduction Economic and Labour Market Outlook Occupation Outlook Conclusions Appendix 1 Appendix 2 Appendix 3 02 03 05 05 07 09 10 12 13 British Columbia Labour Market Outlook: 2010-2020 [1] Labour Market OutlookL { } B.C. Labour Market Outlook, 2010 - 2020 Preface The Ministry of Jobs, Tourism and Innovation is pleased to present the second edition of the B.C. Labour Market Outlook in partnership with BC Stats and the Ministry of Finance. This edition provides labour market demand and supply forecasts for B.C. and its regions from 2010 to 2020, based on output from the B.C. Labour Market Scenario Model. Over one million job openings are expected in B.C. from 2010 to 2020 The B.C. Labour Market Scenario Model is a tool that helps us understand the likely future of regional and provincial labour markets. Developed by the Province in 2009, the information the Model provides helps citizens, employers and government to accurately forecast future demand and supply for a range of occupations. The Outlook seeks to identify significant trends for the labour market of the future that can inform decisionmaking, based on statistical data, assumptions, and consultation with industry and other stakeholders. However, within particular occupations and regions there may be unique conditions that are not captured in this analysis. Assumptions and conditions may also change over time. Thus, despite best efforts, actual conditions may differ from those presented...
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...ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL MARKET OUTLOOK September 2015 Balancing Act: Pendulum swings toward US economy supporting global growth Global GDP growth Annual % change 8 Forecast 7 Emerging 6 5 4 World 3 Advanced 2 1 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: International Monetary Fund, RBC Economics Research The outlook for the global economy was muddied over the summer as the emerging market economies, led by China, weakened. Conversely, in many advanced economies, growth accelerated led by a robust increase in the US, a solid gain in the Euro area and rebound in the UK. Canada’s economy put in another weak performance in the second quarter although the monthly data augur well for a return to positive growth. On balance, the softening in the emerging market economies created downside risk to the world economy being able to maintain the 3.4% growth rate recorded over the prior three years. That said, the forecast was premised on activity in the advanced economies picking up sufficiently to offset a slowing in the emerging market growth and this appears to be playing out. China’s slowdown creates anxiety Market Volatility Index (VIX) Index 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2013 2014 2015 Increased anxiety about China’s economy and the stability of its financial markets fuelled concerns about global growth and international trade. Reports of weakening domestic demand and export activity elicited...
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...Please cite this note as: OECD (2014), “OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis: A Post Mortem”, OECD Economics Department Policy Notes, No. 23 February 2014. OECD FORECASTS DURING AND AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS: A POST MORTEM OECD Economics Department Policy Note no. 23 February 2014 This Policy Note is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Organisation or of the governments of its member countries. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. © OECD 2014 You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of OECD as source and copyright owner is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights should be submitted...
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...selected. Ans. Sales Forecasting means to predict the future expected sales of the product in the market on the basis of previous sales and prevailing market conditions. It is the central part of the strategic planning process. It may be either short-run to decide the various production schedules or long-run to plan the expansion of the plant. Sales Forecast literally means sales predictions. Any industry needs to predict future sales time to time to plan their production of a particular model or for unit expansion and for many more factors. Sales Forecasting can be done by different methods depending on the factors that can affect sales volume. Top-Down Approach : This approach is also been called as breaking down approach. In this approach, sales forecast is being done at corporate level or at strategic business unit level. Steps followed in this approach are as follows: 1. This approach starts with a forecast of general economic conditions. It includes a forecast of gross national product along with projection of consumer and wholesale price index, interest rates, unemployment level, government expenditures, etc. 2. Estimate the industry’s total market potential for a product category. 3. Determine the current market share of the company. 4. Forecast sales for the product. 5. Use the sales forecast for operational planning and budgeting. Bottom-Up Approach : This approach is also known as build up approach. In this approach it is simply asked from...
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...Manager’s Guide to Forecasting by David M. Georgoff and Robert G. Murdick Harvard Business Review Reprint 86104 J A N U A RY– F E B R U A RY 1 9 8 6 HBR Manager’s Guide to Forecasting David M. Georgoff and Robert G. Murdick E arly in 1984, the Houston-based COMPAQ Computer Corporation, manufacturer of IBMcompatible microcomputers, faced a decision that would profoundly affect its future. Recognizing that IBM would soon introduce its version of the portable computer and threaten COMPAQ’s dominance in this profitable market, the company had two options. It could elect to specialize in this product line and continue to market its highly regarded portables aggressively, or it could expand market offerings to include desktop microcomputers. The latter move would force the year-old company to confront IBM on its home ground. Moreover, COMPAQ would have to make a substantial investment in product development and working capital and expand its organization and manufacturing capacity. COMPAQ’s management faced several important unknowns, including the potential market’s size, structure, and competitive intensity. Management recognized that the company’s vitality might seriously erode if it did not expand its product line. If the expansion were successful, COMPAQ might enjoy economies of scale that could help ensure its survival in a dynamic and very competitive industry. If COMPAQ’s market assumptions were incorrect, however, its future might be bleak. Many of today’s...
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...A leading indicator of economic forecast can impact Apple’s product sales forecast is the Consumer Confidence Index. Consumer Confidence is a measure of the level of optimism consumers have about the performance of the economy. Consumer Confidence influences consumption (where consumption is a large part of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)). According to the text, Principles of Economics, “if consumers expect good economic conditions and are optimistic about their economic prospects, they are more likely to but major items such as cars or furniture.”1 While Apple products may not be considered major items, the company (Apple Inc.) could use the current consumer confidence index as a gauge on how well its products could do in the market in a particular period.(Appendix Personal consumption form freelunch.com) Unfortunately, consumer confidence here in the United States (US) has dropped (from 71.5 to 65.1) in the last two months (November and December 2012)2. This drop has been attributed to the uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff debate3. If consumer confidence continue to drop here in the US, Apple Inc. may have to look to overseas to make up any sales deficit. 2. What are the international economic factors that impact Apple’s product sales and cost? APPLE’s operations and financial performance depends significantly on worldwide economic conditions. The various economic factors that come into play are: a) Personal disposable income of consumers b) Currency exchange rates...
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...Background: an overview of the financial crisis........................................................ 4 2.1 2.2 2.3 Origins of the global financial crisis .....................................................................................4 Impacts on the real economy...............................................................................................4 Implications for the economic outlook..................................................................................5 Macroeconomic overview ....................................................................................................6 Key impacts on low-income households............................................................................13 The social services sector..................................................................................................17 Services provided to individuals and families ....................................................................21 Capacity of the system to deliver .......................................................................................27 3. Australia’s economic outlook ...................................................................................... 6 3.1 3.2 4. Implications for social services................................................................................. 17 4.1 4.2 4.3 5. 6. Conclusions ...................................................................................................................
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...Eco-30043 Economic and Business Forecasting Assignment 2012/13 A year ago you were hired as an entry-level assistant business analyst by an advertising agency. Last week, top management requested a review of household consumption behaviour in the United Kingdom. They are particularly interested in whether the recent financial crisis and the economic recession that followed, have permanently altered consumption patterns in the country. The chief analyst, and head of your department, holds a briefing with the entire team in order to assign tasks. You have been asked to do what you have been doing since day one, which is secondary data collection. Confident in your abilities, you see this as an opportunity to gain a more substantive role within the department. You argue that you can provide a thorough and sophisticated analysis of consumer expenditure, complete with reliable forecasts for the foreseeable future. You suggest preparing a report on the analysis of only a subset of goods and services to showcase your technical and analytical skills. The chief analyst agrees to consider your work. If the report you present is at par with the required standard, both in technical detail and analytical discussion, you would be assigned a more prestigious role in the larger scale project, which could lead to a promotion within the department to a more senior level. You are forwarded the data file report1213.dta, which contains, among other, information on UK household expenditure on certain...
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...What are the roles and functions of central banks? Why do they need Economic staff? How far should central banks get involved in data collection and areas such as seasonal adjustment, as well as economic analysis? Introduction Though Central Bank is viewed as one of the primary mechanisms of macroeconomic stabilization there are a number of arguments about other areas of Central Bank’s involvement. This paper will explore the different areas, including the role of Central Bank in effecting monetary policy and intervening body in exchange rate trades, Central Bank as a Last Lender Resort (LLR), and Central Bank as a regulatory body of the financial sector. Prior to further discussion, it is important to stress that the role of Central Bank and the scope of its involvement may vary due to the effect of different legislations and the presence of various stakeholders. Thus, US Central Bank does not act as a regulatory body of the financial sector (Driffill et al., 2005), whereas the intervention activity of Japan Central Bank requires the approval of other governmental bodies (Fujiwara, 2005). This paper discusses the importance of Central Bank's publications of economic forecasts and other information related to Central Bank's views of the further state of macroeconomic trends. The discussion shows that this information is highly important for other market players and forecasting agencies as it reduces the information asymmetry. The role of Central bank in macroeconomic stabilization ...
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